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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 9, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar price movement followed our projections as stated on Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of June 2 - the price action hit our initial upside target of Mean Res 1.076. The continuation of the pivotal rebound is expected to push to Mean Res 1.082 this week, following through the pivot move that will take us to Mean Sup 1.068 and possibly two extensions to fulfill our target next Inner Currency Dip 1.047 ultimately. Viewing the Pivotal Down Move prediction is based on the current price action, notwithstanding confirmation from the Trade Selector that will be given before implementing any strategies.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD 05/06/2023 TRADING LEVELS UPDATEHi Traders, PLEASE SEE LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW. Rounding off the week with an update to our forecasted EURUSD levels on the 1D chart. After the bounce from the 78.6% Fibonacci support level, there was a bullish push upwards (highlighted on the chart) and we have now pulled back near our forecasted Vector Resistance 1 level at 1.08047. The trading range on EURUSD was quite small this week as we have traders waiting for both the ECB & Federal Reserve interest rate decision announcement next week. We will continue to analyse the markets and will have new levels for you for the upcoming trading week. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 2, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: In our Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of May 26, the euro-dollar price movement followed our projections perfectly. On May 31, the price hit our initial down target of Inner Currency Dip 1.064, followed by a dead cat bounces to our Mean Res 1.075 target last Friday. The retest of the completed Inner Currency Dip 1.064 is in progress, with the strong possibility of falling further to Mean Sup 1.054.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD falls to 5-week low as inflation easesThe euro has edged higher on Thursday, trading at 1.0708, up 0.19%. The currency remains under pressure as the US dollar is flexing some muscles. On Wednesday, EUR/USD touched a low of 1.0635, its lowest level since March 20. There are clear signs of disinflation in the eurozone, as rising interest rates have dampened economic activity. Spain and France reported sharp drops in inflation in April, and Germany has followed suit, with inflation dropping from 7.6% in April to 6.3% in May. This was lower than the consensus of 6.8%. In the eurozone, inflation fell from 7% to 6.1%, below the consensus of 6.3%. Inflation has eased as energy prices have fallen sharply, with food prices also dropping. Most importantly, eurozone core inflation fell to 5.3%, down from 5.6% and below the consensus of 5.5%. The ECB is focussed on the core rate, which excludes energy and food prices. The drop in the core inflation in April will add support for the ECB to take a pause in rate hikes, as early as the July meeting. The US House of Representatives approved the debt ceiling deal on Wednesday. The measure sailed through, by a vote of 314-117. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later this week, with the government forecast to hit the debt ceiling by June 5th. On the employment front, JOLTS Job Openings rose to 10.1 million, above the upwardly revised prior reading of 9.7 million and the consensus of 94 million. This is another indication that the labour market remains very strong and if the nonfarm payrolls release on Friday is solid, the Fed may have to continue raising rates. Fed members are divided on whether to pause or hike at the June 14th meeting, and Fed swap futures are pricing in a 67% chance of a 0.25% hike at the meeting. There is resistance at 1.0753 and 1.0804 1.0675 and 1.0624 are providing support
by OANDA
1
Weak Euro - War between central banks!FOREXCOM:EURUSD is under sell pressure. Germany is officially in recession. Inflation numbers came short in both Spain and Germany. These are signs for interest rates in eurozone is slowing down the economy and at some point ECB needs to stop increasing interest rates, which would make euro weaker. In contrast to this, job openings and GDP numbers came positive for the US economy. This is increasing the hand of FED for further rate hikes. All these fundamentals are pushing FOREXCOM:EURUSD lower. TA shows that the price is following the down channel. The channel support and pivotal point supports (both monthly and quarterly) are around 1.05-1.053 zone. We will watch if that area holds or not for a long opportunity. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
by WhaleGambit
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 26, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week's eurodollar price action was lower, and the current trading pattern suggests the designated target of the Inner Currency Dip is 1.064 in the making, as indicated in last week's daily chart analysis, with the possibility of falling further to Mean Sup 1.054. We also anticipate a quick rebound to Mean Res 1.075 with the potential to reach Mean Res 1.082 upon completion of its main target.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop ECB hiked rates by 25bps most recently. Fed continues to see heightened inflation and maintains its uncompromising hawkish stance. Empire State Manufacturing Index release later on with market pricing in a negative print. Technical Confluences Daily support level at 1.0755 where price can potentially tap into. Price has broken past the daily resistance at 1.0961. Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, EURUSD can potentially continue bearish to the support at 1.0755 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Will we break the range?Hi Traders! EURUSD is very quiet and looking for a direction. This may depend on fundamental news out later today with the FOMC and ECB speaking this evening. On a technical outlook, we have a bearish price channel with lower highs and lower lows, there is strong buying pressure around the 1.09630 area and strong selling pressure around the 1.10950 area. Whether we breakout to the upside or downside may depend on what we hear from both the FOMC and ECB. We will be listening closely to what they say and keep you updated with how the market behaves to both their respective announcements. Please make sure to follow, like and comment. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
EUR/USD With Momentum, Testing 1.1100 The EUR/USD pair is holding to recent gains, but still limited by the 1.1100 psychological area. Is it near year-to-day highs and moving with a bullish tone ahead of the European Central Bank’s decision and following the Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1065, up 0.10% on the day. The DXY is falling also falling modestly, down for the third consecutive day, testing the 101.00 support area. Lower US yields are weighing on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but signaled a potential pause ahead. The better-than-expected ADP employment report failed to impress traders who are now looking at Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. If those numbers come out well above expectation it could support the dollar, which looks vulnerable across the board, close to key technical levels against many of its rivals. In Europe, the ECB is expected raise interest rates. The question is by how much? It could be 25 or 50 bps. The central bank has few options that remain hawkish, considering the latest inflation numbers and current interest rate levels. The divergence in the near-term perspective between the ECB (hiking further) and the Fed (starting a pause) is a positive for the euro. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD shows a short-term bullish outlook according to indicators on the 4-hour chart as the RSI and MACD are both in positive territory; and price is well above key Simple Moving Averages. The 20-period SMA offers support at 1.1015. A decline under 1.0990 would weaken the outlook, and a confirmation below 1.0950 should point to further losses. On the upside, the 1.1100 area holds the key to more gains. A break above would open the doors to more gains targeting initially 1.1120 and then 1.1160. A false break or a failure to break above would keep the pair in the current range.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD edges lower, ECB expected to raise ratesEUR/USD is trading quietly on Thursday, ahead of the ECB decision later today. All eyes are the ECB, which is expected to raise rates at today's meeting. The burning question remains will the central bank increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points? The eurozone April inflation report, published Tuesday, didn't provide any insights as both the headline and core readings barely moved and were very close to the estimates. Headline CPI came in at 7.0% and the core rate at 5.6%, which is well above the 2% target and much too high for the ECB. The Bank has been aggressive in its rate-tightening cycle and raised rates by 50 bp in March. Another 50-bp increase would help in the fight against inflation but also raise the likelihood of a recession due to the economy slowing down too abruptly. The markets are leaning closer to a 25-bp hike (80% probability) over a 50-bp increase (20% probability). The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp on Wednesday, to the surprise of no one. Investors were more interested in what is coming next, and Jerome Powell did hint that this hike would be the final one after 10 straight rate hikes. The rate statement was somewhat dovish, with the Fed removing the phrase "some additional" rate hikes might be needed. It changed the language that said that it would examine various factors in "determining the extent" that further hikes would be needed. Powell sounded more hawkish in the press conference, saying that higher interest rates had not sufficiently slowed down the economy, the labour market or inflation. Just to be crystal clear, Powell said that “inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go". A rate cut, anyone? Powell said in his remarks that the inflation outlook does not support a rate cut. The markets disagree and have priced in an 81% rate cut in September (51% chance of 25-bp cut and 30% of 50-bp cut). Inflation is on its way down, but the pace of the deceleration could well determine if the Fed trims rates before the end of the year. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.1088 earlier. The next resistance line is 1.1157 1.1025 and 1.0956 are providing support
by OANDA
Forex Update: EURUSD struggling at resistance with ECB to comeToday's focus EURUSD Pattern – Resistance stall Possible targets – 1.1165 Upside 1.0965 downside Support – Resistance – 1.1065 Indicator support – ECB meeting MA slope up With the ECB to come, we are focusing on the EURUSD as price continues to be held at 1.1065 resistance. Price has continued to trade in an up trend but, for now, remains held back at resistance that started in April. The ECB could be a short-term catalyst tonight. Rates are expected to be increased by 25 points. The talk is that the ECB could step back as core inflation slowed to 5.6%, and the inflation figure sits at 7%. A larger-than-expected credit drop and tighter leading criteria are other factors that could maintain the trend of small hikes. Another 25-point hike is forecast for June. Another possibility could be a reduction in the balance sheet. QT has already been happening with a reduction in the massive bond holdings. Price-wise, we will need something positive from the ECB to drive the EURUSD higher. Price continues to weaken at resistance, and the USD, another factor, continues to firm today. If the ECB confirms that rates may not rise as much as expected, it could push the EURUSD lower, maintaining resistance. If we see a hawkish surprise in the statement, this could be enough for price to break resistance and start a new leg higher. Don't forget about the USD and tomorrow's NFP. The USD is holding above 100.80 support, and if it can form a solid comeback with a more dovish ECB could set the EURUSD up for a leg lower. Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
by Eightcap
EUR/USD's hidden clues & key levels? Here’s an interesting chart: the inflation differential of the US and the EU plotted against the EUR/USD pair. If we approximate the range of the inflation differential with an upper bound of 1.5 and a lower bound of -0.5, we get a compelling signal for trading the EUR/USD pair. Buying EUR/USD when the inflation differential bottoms has resulted in success 4 out of the 5 times this signal was triggered. Repeating the analysis using the preferred inflation measures for both central banks – PCE for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and EU HICP for the European Central Bank (ECB) – yields similar results. Is this spurious correlation or is there more to this? Our guess is that the inflation differential drives expectations of one central bank’s move versus the other which affects the currency pair. The upcoming US PCE release on 28th April will provide insight into whether the inflation differential between the US and EU will continue to narrow. The validity of this data remains to be seen, but it's certainly an intriguing observation to consider! The rather eventful economic calendar over the next two weeks offers opportunities for this pair. Starting with the PCE Price Index released on April 28th, it is followed by the Fed meeting on Wednesday, May 3rd and the ECB meeting on Thursday, May 4th. With these events in mind, we want to position ourselves for the flurry of announcements coming out, which could play into EUR/USD strength. The long-term price action still seems to point towards an uptrend, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing the 200-day SMA and clearly marking previous swings. The current price is also consolidating at the 1.1000 psychological level, with parity and 1.2000 levels roughly marking the EUR/USD range for the decade. Zooming in, the EURUSD has been trading in an uptrend. An attempt to break above the 1.11 level was quickly rejected, with prices trading back to the trend support shortly after. We are currently witnessing another attempt to break this same level once again. Hence, a risk-managed trade could yield opportunities here with the upcoming onslaught of announcements. Setting up a long position at the current level of 1.1074 with a tight stop just below the trend support at 1.0945 and take profit level of 1.1400 would give us a risk-reward ratio of roughly 2.5. Each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:6E1!Long
by inspirante
EUR/USD Rises Back Above 1.1000The EUR/USD advanced on Monday, reaching the strongest level in ten days, above 1.1000. A higher euro across the board is helping the pair, while the dollar is performing mixed. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1008, up 0.17% above its opening price after topping at 1.1019. European equities and US stock futures are little changed, with the focus primarily on what will happen next week, which includes the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank meetings and the US official employment report. There will be no words from FOCM officials these days (blackout period). Markets are pricing in rate hikes from both central banks. A 25 basis points from the Fed looks like a done deal, considering recent labor market data and the stability in financial markets. It will probably be the last rate hike of the current tightening cycle. Before the meeting, the key report will be on US Q1 GDP growth on Thursday, that also includes consumer inflation. The ECB is seen rising by 25 basis points, but it could also be a 50 basis point. If the odds of a larger rate hike increase, the euro would have scope for extra gains. Inflation and growth data from the Eurozone this week will be watched closely. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD remains with a bullish bias in the short-term, particularly while above 1.0970. A consolidation above 1.1000 would strengthen the positive outlook for the euro. The next target is the 1.1045 resistance, ahead of the April high at 1.1075. The pair is moving slowly at a quiet beginning of the week. A failure to hold above 1.1000 would suggest the pair is not ready for more gains and could likely keep moving sideways between 1.0900 and 1.1000. After that, however, the odds of a sharper bearish correction under 1.0900 would rise significantly.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURUSD: "...It's not over yet!!"The title of this analysis reproduces with a clear synthesis the key concept about the FED's monetary policy. The inflation data released in recent weeks should not mislead us, the core data still remains high. My view at the moment is that Fed will still be hawkish through late 2023, so I expect more rate hikes at upcoming meetings. The banking sector is holding up well after Yellen reassured the markets several times about a potential banking crisis, and I also think the sector will not lack liquidity, at least for 2023. The US currency may have found a short-term bottom, but we need 1-2 sessions to confirm it. FX:EURUSD pair is still trading below its previous top, but should remain structurally well supported in medium-term. With this in mind, in next update we will try to follow the pair also from a technical point of view on intraday chart (setup). Trade with care! Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
by TheAnonymousBanker