Get started

Ecb

EURUSD: Still seeing some strength hereEven writing this I’m thinking it could be a crazy idea with USD strength in play, but let’s see... I think we’ll see some early weakness from the USD before a momentum shift that will see DXY reverse up (maybe by end of the week). I think the EURO is still looking strong, bouncing back from the falling following the ECB rate hike pause. ECB are hawkish around further hikes and USD CPI numbers this week may indicate a pause is coming from the FED, this idea may have played out by then. I’ll be tightening my SL at 13.30 GMT this Thursday. So for now looking to go long provided we breakout and retest the falling trendline on the daily from the 1.275 high. We’ve been in a strong uptrend for months and I think the moves in the next few weeks could start to show reversal back down, but for now we still have higher highs and higher lows, support held nicely last week and had confluence to not break the 100 and 200 EMA on the daily, so I'm still bullish with this one for now. I’ll hopefully be tp’ing around 1.124 to see if we get a double top or continuation up, which would bring the 1.14 centre line of the rising channel quickly into play (which could well happen if the US CPI is better / lower than expectation).
Long
by Finchcliffe
EURJPY in Focus: ECB Hikes and the BoJ’s Yield Curve ControlChristine Lagarde's remarks about an open-minded ECB, coupled with a robust labor market and persistently high inflation in the eurozone, continue to provide the ECB with reasons to lean towards hiking. While headline inflation may be trending downwards, core inflation remains steadfast in the eurozone. Following the meeting on July 27, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, elevating the key interest rate to 4.25%—its highest level since 2008. Interestingly, the U.S. seems to be leading the way in this regard. Inflation and core inflation peaked earlier in the US, and the Federal Reserve has been raising rates more rapidly than the ECB. Given that the EU's inflation rates remain higher than those in the US and that the unemployment rate in the EU is still low, further hikes by the ECB appear plausible—especially considering that the U.S. continues to hike, albeit at a more advanced stage. Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) garnered attention by widening its yield curve control band, signaling a move towards policy normalization. Yet, markets remain skeptical. The subsequent whipsaw move placed the USDJPY pair at levels higher than those before the announcement. The yield differential between the EUR and JPY interest rates exhibits a positive relationship, with the EURJPY appreciating as the yield gap widens. With the previous yield differential increase resulting in a 21% rise in the EURJPY, the currency pair's current 14% ascent seems to have room to grow further, particularly given the larger yield difference compared to past instances. However, it's worth noting the 1999 – 2000 period, where the yield differential increased, but market reactions lagged significantly. From a technical perspective, we observe the EURJPY breaking out of a 30-year symmetrical triangle, often interpreted as a bullish continuation signal. Upon closer examination, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the market is not yet oversold, and the moving average cross still favours upward trajectory. In conclusion, the ECB's potential inclination towards continued hikes, combined with market skepticism over the BOJ's recent moves, could lead to a stronger EUR and a softer JPY. A suitable strategy to capitalize on this view might be to take a long position in CME EURO/JAPANESE YEN Futures, quoted as Japanese Yen per Euro Increment. Entering at the current level of 156 with a stop at 152.5, and a take profit at 168, would provide a reasonable risk-reward ratio. It's worth noting that each 0.01 Japanese yen per Euro increment move equals 1250 yen. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
Long
by inspirante
✨ MODIFICATION: EURUSD ✨ THE BIG PICTURE (5D)TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: TP5 @ 1.2115 (closing ALL Buy Orders) TP4 @ 1.17850 (shaving 25%) TP3 @ 1.1250 (shaving 25%) TP2 @ 1.1100 (shaving 25%) TP1 @ 1.0933 (shaving 25%) BLO1 @ 1.0820 ⏳ BLO2 @ 1.0800 ⏳ VIDEO TIMESTAMP: 00:00 ECB News 02:53 Where Do We Go From Here? 03:32 A Noisy Intermediate Time Frame (4H) 04:55 Key Support/Resistance Levels (4H) 06:01 Institutional Buying Targets 06:42 Safe Haven Currencies 05:52 Interest Rates and Safe Haven Currencies 08:47 Position Sizing with R:R @ 1:1 10:20 Best Buying Opportunities ⭐ 11:04 The BIG PICTURE Analysis ⭐ 13:28 BIG PICTURE Anticipatory Trend 16:31 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: During today's EUR News trading session, the EURUSD initially tried to rally or, as we call it, exhibited a false positive. Still, the market gave back gains as the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates as anticipated by 25 basis points up from 3.50% to 3.75%. So, considering this, where is Price Action going from here? Since April 02, 2023, @ 18:00, it's been a very noisy range. This range is our current price curve analysis. It lands between the Pivot Low of 1.0788 and the Pivot High of 1.1095 and, therefore, places Support @ 1.0945 and Resistance @ 1.1086. Based on the 4H chart, we should be clear for a downtrend breakout if price action opens and closes below our Support Level. A breakout pattern to the downside would also mean Price Action is pulling back from its BIG PICTURE uptrend pattern. Therefore, we should find Institutional Buying Targets around 1.0820 and 1.0800. Considering the US dollar to "safe-haven" currencies like JPY or CHF, we need to be cautious about our position sizing because this will continue to be a volatile range. We're going to have to "ride the wave" professionally. Right now, I see a lot of short-term buying and selling opportunities until Price Action reaches its 4-hour Demand Zone around 1..0800. Once we're there, the longer-term opportunity to buy will be ours.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
4
EUR/USD rebounds after sharp lossesThe euro has bounced back on Friday after sliding 0.99% a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1018, up 0.38%. On the economic calendar, the US PCE Price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, fell to 3.0% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, bringing the main rate to 3.75%. The ECB statement warned that inflation, although on the decline, "is expected to remain too high for too long". The ECB did not provide any forward guidance, as the statement said the Governing Council would base its decisions on the data. ECB President Lagarde didn't add much to this stance, saying that ECB members were "open-minded" about rate decisions at upcoming meetings and wouldn't commit to whether the ECB would raise or pause in September. The rate increase can be described as a 'hawkish hike', as the statement kept the door open for further hikes. Nevertheless, the euro lost ground following the decision, which could reflect expectations that the ECB is close to its peak rate, despite the hawkish rhetoric. The eurozone economy is struggling, and this week's Services PMIs pointed to weakness in Germany and France, the biggest economies in the bloc. The eurozone could slip into recession this year, which means that the ECB will have to think carefully before its raises rates. On the other side of the coin, inflation, which is the ECB's number one priority, is at 5.5%, well above the target of 2%. The eurozone releases the July inflation report on Monday and the reading could be a key factor in the ECB's rate decision at the September meeting. The euro lost further ground on Thursday after better-than-expected US data. In the second quarter, GDP rose 2.4% q/q, above the Q1 reading of 2.0% and the consensus estimate of 1.8%. US Durable Goods Orders and unemployment claims were better than expected, a further indication that the Fed may be able to guide the economy to a soft landing even with interest rates at their highest levels in 22 years. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1002. The next resistance line is 1.1063 There is support at 1.0895 and close by at 1.0861
by OANDA
BluetonaFX - EURUSD All Eyes Now On Euro With ECB PendingHi Traders! All eyes are now on the Euro, and traders are eagerly anticipating the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision and their press conference later today. Looking at the price action on the EURUSD 1D chart, the Euro has found support near the previous cup resistance at the 1.10120 level. Depending on the outcome we get later from the ECB, the Euro may possibly continue its bullish momentum and target the 1.12757 resistance level for a potential breakout. On the other side, if we get any possible signs of Euro weakness from the ECB, then 1.10120 is the target support level, with a possible opportunity for a break and continuation below. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX  
by BluetonaFX
2
EUR/USD quiet ahead of Fed decisionThe euro is showing limited movement for a second consecutive day. In Wednesday's European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1063, up 0.07%. The Federal Reserve meets later today, and it's close to a certainty that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC will not be releasing any economic forecasts, which means investors will have to comb the rate statement and Jerome Powell's follow-up press conference for clues about future rate policy. The money markets remain confident that today's rate hike will be the last in the current tightening cycle, which is a more dovish stance than what we've been hearing from Powell & Co. The Fed has reiterated that although inflation is heading in the right direction, it remains too high and more work needs to be done to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Powell does not want the markets to become complacent about inflation, and for this reason, he is unlikely to close the door on future rate hikes, even if he hints at a pause after today's expected increase. We can expect Powell to stick to the well-worn mantra of basing future rate decisions on economic data, in particular inflation and the strength of the labour market. The ECB will announce its rate decision on Thursday, and like the Fed later today, it's a virtual certainty that the ECB will raise rates by 0.25%. What happens after that? The minutes of the June meeting, released earlier this month, signalled that a September hike is a strong possibility. Members noted that "monetary policy had still more ground to cover" and "the Governing Council could consider increasing interest rates beyond July, if necessary." ECB policy makers will make their rate determinations based on economic data, but that doesn't mean the decision will be clear-cut. The eurozone economy is struggling, which would support a pause. At the same time, inflation dropped to 5.5% in June, which is almost triple the ECB's target of 2%. Inflation remains the ECB's number one priority, which could mean another rate hike in September unless there is a sharp drop in inflation or a serious deterioration in economic growth. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1063. The next resistance line is 1.1170 There is support at 1.1002 and 1.0895
by OANDA
EUR/USD under pressure after soft PMIsThe euro has started the week in negative territory. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1083, down 0.38%. The euro has lost ground for three straight days and has fallen as much as 170 pips since hitting a 2023-high on July 18th. The eurozone recovery is likely to be lengthy, and Monday's PMIs pointed to a deceleration in the manufacturing and services sectors in July. The eurozone Manufacturing PMI dipped to 42.7, down from 43.4 in June and below the consensus estimate of 43.5 points. The eurozone Services PMI slowed to 51.1, down from 52 and shy of the consensus of 51.5 points. Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, posted even worse manufacturing numbers, as the PMI fell to 38.3, down from 40.6 and below the consensus of 41.0 points. The June release is worrying, as manufacturing has decelerated for eight successive months and the reading was the lowest since May 2020. German Services PMI dropped to 51.1, below the May reading of 52.0 and the consensus of 51.5 points. The 50.0 line separates expansion from expansion. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, with the deterioration of the eurozone economy in the background. The fears of a winter recession failed to materialize, but economic activity has been dampened by low demand and persistently high inflation. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% at the meeting, which would raise the main interest rate to 3.50%. What happens after that is less clear, although the ECB has been focused on high core inflation and could continue to tighten after the July meeting. In the US, PMI releases for July were mixed. Manufacturing surprised to the upside with a reading of 49.0, beating the June reading of 46.3 and the consensus of 46.2 points. Services decelerated for a second straight month, falling from 54.4 to 52.4 points and missing the consensus of 54.0 points. EUR/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.1063. The next support level is 1.1002 1.1170 and 1.1231 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Euro trading quietly around 1.09, FOMC minutes nextEUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is almost unchanged at 1.0882. The eurozone services sector continues to show growth, but the June numbers showed a deceleration. Eurozone PMI slowed to 52.0, shy of the consensus of 52.4 and down from 55.1 in May. This marked a five-month low. Germany's services sector stalled, dropping from 53.9 to 50.6 and missing the consensus of 50.8 points. The 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion. The eurozone economy has been recovering slowly, with services driving economic activity as manufacturing continues to decline. The ECB, which showed up late to the rate-hiking party but has been quite hawkish, will need to tread carefully in order to guide the economy to a soft landing. The central bank meets next on July 27th and is expected to raise rates. Inflation has been falling but core CPI remains persistently high. The ECB has signalled more rate hikes are coming and Joachim Nagel, head of the German central bank, reiterated the ECB's stance, saying this week that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and the ECB's rate-hike cycle has "some way to go". Wednesday's highlight is the FOMC minutes of the June meeting, when the Fed raised rates by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark cash rate to a range of 5.00%-5.25%. The markets are widely expecting the Fed to hike at the July meeting but aren't sure about another rate hike this year. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed plans two hikes in the second half of the year and the minutes could change the market's tune if the Fed's tone is hawkish. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0908. The next resistance line is 110.50 1.0838 and 1.0766 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD climbs as key US inflation gauge ticks lowerEUR/USD is trading at 1.0872 in the European session, up 0.07%. The euro is under pressure and is down close to 100 pips since Tuesday. Inflation in the eurozone continues to fall. Eurozone CPI is expected to fall to 5.5% in June, down from 6.1% in May and a notch below the consensus of 5.6%. Headline inflation has fallen to its lowest level since January 2022. The problem for the ECB is that Core CPI, which is a more reliable gauge of inflation trends, moved the wrong way. Core CPI ticked higher to 5.4%, up from 5.3% and below the consensus of 5.5%. These levels of core inflation are incompatible with a 2% inflation target and today's inflation report won't prevent the ECB from delivering a rate hike in July. The ECB may be forced to increase rates beyond the July meeting until there is evidence that core inflation has turned the corner and shows clear signs of deceleration in the second half of the year. Germany's inflation report was worse, as both headline and core inflation moved higher, as expected. Headline inflation rose to 6.4% in June, up from 6.1% in May, while the core rate climbed from 5.4% to 5.8%. Inflation had fallen over six straight months and the June numbers could be an anomaly, but as ECB President Lagarde stated earlier this week, the battle against inflation isn't over yet. US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favourite inflation gauge, eased lower in May. The index dipped to 4.6% y/y, down from 4.7% in April, which was also the consensus. On a monthly basis, the index fell to 0.1%, down from 0.4%. The decline in inflation hasn't had much effect on market rate pricing, with an 86% probability of a 25-bp rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The week wraps up with UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to rise to 63.9 in June, up from 59.2 in May. EUR/USD continues to put pressure on resistance at 1.0916. This is followed by resistance at 1.0988 1.0822 and 1.0750 are providing support
by OANDA