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EUR/USD surges after ECB rate hikeEUR/USD is trading at 1.0948 in Europe, almost unchanged on the day. On Thursday, the euro surged 1.05% in the aftermath of the ECB rate hike. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%, the highest level since 2001. The markets were not surprised by the move but ECB President Lagarde's hawkish comments following the rate announcement may have surprised some and the euro responded with massive gains. In her press conference, Lagarde said that barring a material change, it was "very likely" that the ECB would continue raising rates in July. Lagarde dampened any thoughts of a pause, even though the eurozone economy remains fragile and growth is expected to be weak. Headline inflation has been falling sharply in the eurozone, as energy prices have fallen. This is positive news, but the ECB is more concerned about core inflation, which is a better gauge of where inflation is headed. The core rate, which excludes energy prices, has been stickier than expected. Inflation has also cooled due to the ECB's rate tightening, but the current rate of 6.1% is far too high for the central bank, which is likely to hike again in July. The Federal Reserve dramatic decision on Wednesday contained two important aspects. First, the Fed took a breather and held rates after 10 straight rate increases. Second, the Fed signalled that the pause did not indicate the end of the current rate-tightening cycle, as the Fed was projecting two more hikes in the second half of the year. Fed Chair Powell reiterated in his press conference that the inflation battle "has a long way to go" and there is every indication that Powell will keep hammering away with rate hikes until inflation falls to the 2% target. There is resistance at 1.1050 and 1.1147 1.0922 and 1.0854 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Challenges 1.0900 After ECB Delivers Rate HikeThe EUR/USD pair extended gains into a fourth consecutive day on Thursday following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise its main rates by 25 basis points, as expected. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0880 area, recording a 0.7% daily gain, having touched its highest level in a month at 1.0894. The European Central Bank announced its decision to raise the main financing rate to 4.00%, the marginal lending to 4.25% and the deposit facility rate to 3.50%. In the subsequent speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde fueled the hawkish narrative as she stated the board is "not thinking about pausing." Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve decided to skip a rate increase on Wednesday after ten consecutive increases. However, the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish words slammed prospects of rate cuts for the remainder of the year. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair's short-term bias is bullish, according to indicators on the daily chart, while the price has managed to climb back above the 20- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and now challenges the critical 1.0900 resistance area. A break above the psychological level could fuel bullish momentum and send the EUR/USD to retest the 1.0970 resistance zone ahead of 1.1000. On the other hand, the 100-day SMA at around 1.0805 is the key support to watch as a drop below would deteriorate the short-term outlook, exposing the 1.0700 zone en route to May's lows at 1.0635.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
GBPUSD DOUBLE SETUP BEFORE ECB RATESIn April, UK GDP grew by 0.2% m/m, recovering from the previous month's decline of -0.3% m/m. The rebound was driven by the services sector, with services expanding by 0.3% m/m and contributing 0.26 percentage points to overall GDP growth. The wholesale and retail sector, as well as the information and communication sector, made significant contributions. However, manufacturing and the health sector experienced declines. Manufacturing contracted by 0.3% m/m, with the pharmaceuticals sector playing a major role. The construction sector also declined by 0.6% m/m due to a slowdown in housing activity. Overall, UK GDP growth remains relatively stagnant, but PMI surveys indicate increased activity in April and May, especially in services, projecting a 0.3%-0.4% q/q growth rate for Q2. However, the extra bank holiday in May is expected to result in a significant contraction in GDP, potentially impacting the entire second quarter, although the effect on Bank of England policy is expected to be minimal. Nicola, CEO Forex48 Trading Academy
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
BluetonaFX - EURUSD KEY LEVELSHi Traders! Please see our new levels for EURUSD below. Vector Level: 1.08047 Vector Level: 1.09298 Anchor Level: 1.04833 Apex Level: 1.10956 The recent price action on the 1D chart is telling us that EURUSD is looking for a direction to continue in. We have been stuck in a range (highlighted on the chart) for the past two weeks or so, and key decisions and announcements this week from the ECB and the Federal Reserve will most likely take us in a certain direction. To the upside, if there is any USD weakness or EUR strength, our first vector level is at 1.08047; we have not been above this level for almost a month. If the market breaks and closes above this level, then we have the next vector level at 1.09298 and then our apex level at 1.10956. If there is EUR weakness or USD strength and we stay below 1.08047, then it is very likely that we will target our anchor level of 1.04833. This anchor level is a very important level, as we have not been below it this year. This trading week will be very busy with all of the upcoming fundamental announcements, and there are bound to be big market moves, so make sure you trade safely and responsibly. Please do not forget to support us by liking, following, and commenting on our posts; this helps us greatly. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 9, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar price movement followed our projections as stated on Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of June 2 - the price action hit our initial upside target of Mean Res 1.076. The continuation of the pivotal rebound is expected to push to Mean Res 1.082 this week, following through the pivot move that will take us to Mean Sup 1.068 and possibly two extensions to fulfill our target next Inner Currency Dip 1.047 ultimately. Viewing the Pivotal Down Move prediction is based on the current price action, notwithstanding confirmation from the Trade Selector that will be given before implementing any strategies.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD 05/06/2023 TRADING LEVELS UPDATEHi Traders, PLEASE SEE LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW. Rounding off the week with an update to our forecasted EURUSD levels on the 1D chart. After the bounce from the 78.6% Fibonacci support level, there was a bullish push upwards (highlighted on the chart) and we have now pulled back near our forecasted Vector Resistance 1 level at 1.08047. The trading range on EURUSD was quite small this week as we have traders waiting for both the ECB & Federal Reserve interest rate decision announcement next week. We will continue to analyse the markets and will have new levels for you for the upcoming trading week. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 2, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: In our Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of May 26, the euro-dollar price movement followed our projections perfectly. On May 31, the price hit our initial down target of Inner Currency Dip 1.064, followed by a dead cat bounces to our Mean Res 1.075 target last Friday. The retest of the completed Inner Currency Dip 1.064 is in progress, with the strong possibility of falling further to Mean Sup 1.054.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD falls to 5-week low as inflation easesThe euro has edged higher on Thursday, trading at 1.0708, up 0.19%. The currency remains under pressure as the US dollar is flexing some muscles. On Wednesday, EUR/USD touched a low of 1.0635, its lowest level since March 20. There are clear signs of disinflation in the eurozone, as rising interest rates have dampened economic activity. Spain and France reported sharp drops in inflation in April, and Germany has followed suit, with inflation dropping from 7.6% in April to 6.3% in May. This was lower than the consensus of 6.8%. In the eurozone, inflation fell from 7% to 6.1%, below the consensus of 6.3%. Inflation has eased as energy prices have fallen sharply, with food prices also dropping. Most importantly, eurozone core inflation fell to 5.3%, down from 5.6% and below the consensus of 5.5%. The ECB is focussed on the core rate, which excludes energy and food prices. The drop in the core inflation in April will add support for the ECB to take a pause in rate hikes, as early as the July meeting. The US House of Representatives approved the debt ceiling deal on Wednesday. The measure sailed through, by a vote of 314-117. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later this week, with the government forecast to hit the debt ceiling by June 5th. On the employment front, JOLTS Job Openings rose to 10.1 million, above the upwardly revised prior reading of 9.7 million and the consensus of 94 million. This is another indication that the labour market remains very strong and if the nonfarm payrolls release on Friday is solid, the Fed may have to continue raising rates. Fed members are divided on whether to pause or hike at the June 14th meeting, and Fed swap futures are pricing in a 67% chance of a 0.25% hike at the meeting. There is resistance at 1.0753 and 1.0804 1.0675 and 1.0624 are providing support
by OANDA
1
Weak Euro - War between central banks!FOREXCOM:EURUSD is under sell pressure. Germany is officially in recession. Inflation numbers came short in both Spain and Germany. These are signs for interest rates in eurozone is slowing down the economy and at some point ECB needs to stop increasing interest rates, which would make euro weaker. In contrast to this, job openings and GDP numbers came positive for the US economy. This is increasing the hand of FED for further rate hikes. All these fundamentals are pushing FOREXCOM:EURUSD lower. TA shows that the price is following the down channel. The channel support and pivotal point supports (both monthly and quarterly) are around 1.05-1.053 zone. We will watch if that area holds or not for a long opportunity. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
by WhaleGambit
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 26, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week's eurodollar price action was lower, and the current trading pattern suggests the designated target of the Inner Currency Dip is 1.064 in the making, as indicated in last week's daily chart analysis, with the possibility of falling further to Mean Sup 1.054. We also anticipate a quick rebound to Mean Res 1.075 with the potential to reach Mean Res 1.082 upon completion of its main target.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop ECB hiked rates by 25bps most recently. Fed continues to see heightened inflation and maintains its uncompromising hawkish stance. Empire State Manufacturing Index release later on with market pricing in a negative print. Technical Confluences Daily support level at 1.0755 where price can potentially tap into. Price has broken past the daily resistance at 1.0961. Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, EURUSD can potentially continue bearish to the support at 1.0755 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Will we break the range?Hi Traders! EURUSD is very quiet and looking for a direction. This may depend on fundamental news out later today with the FOMC and ECB speaking this evening. On a technical outlook, we have a bearish price channel with lower highs and lower lows, there is strong buying pressure around the 1.09630 area and strong selling pressure around the 1.10950 area. Whether we breakout to the upside or downside may depend on what we hear from both the FOMC and ECB. We will be listening closely to what they say and keep you updated with how the market behaves to both their respective announcements. Please make sure to follow, like and comment. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
EUR/USD With Momentum, Testing 1.1100 The EUR/USD pair is holding to recent gains, but still limited by the 1.1100 psychological area. Is it near year-to-day highs and moving with a bullish tone ahead of the European Central Bank’s decision and following the Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1065, up 0.10% on the day. The DXY is falling also falling modestly, down for the third consecutive day, testing the 101.00 support area. Lower US yields are weighing on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but signaled a potential pause ahead. The better-than-expected ADP employment report failed to impress traders who are now looking at Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. If those numbers come out well above expectation it could support the dollar, which looks vulnerable across the board, close to key technical levels against many of its rivals. In Europe, the ECB is expected raise interest rates. The question is by how much? It could be 25 or 50 bps. The central bank has few options that remain hawkish, considering the latest inflation numbers and current interest rate levels. The divergence in the near-term perspective between the ECB (hiking further) and the Fed (starting a pause) is a positive for the euro. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD shows a short-term bullish outlook according to indicators on the 4-hour chart as the RSI and MACD are both in positive territory; and price is well above key Simple Moving Averages. The 20-period SMA offers support at 1.1015. A decline under 1.0990 would weaken the outlook, and a confirmation below 1.0950 should point to further losses. On the upside, the 1.1100 area holds the key to more gains. A break above would open the doors to more gains targeting initially 1.1120 and then 1.1160. A false break or a failure to break above would keep the pair in the current range.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD edges lower, ECB expected to raise ratesEUR/USD is trading quietly on Thursday, ahead of the ECB decision later today. All eyes are the ECB, which is expected to raise rates at today's meeting. The burning question remains will the central bank increase rates by 25 or 50 basis points? The eurozone April inflation report, published Tuesday, didn't provide any insights as both the headline and core readings barely moved and were very close to the estimates. Headline CPI came in at 7.0% and the core rate at 5.6%, which is well above the 2% target and much too high for the ECB. The Bank has been aggressive in its rate-tightening cycle and raised rates by 50 bp in March. Another 50-bp increase would help in the fight against inflation but also raise the likelihood of a recession due to the economy slowing down too abruptly. The markets are leaning closer to a 25-bp hike (80% probability) over a 50-bp increase (20% probability). The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp on Wednesday, to the surprise of no one. Investors were more interested in what is coming next, and Jerome Powell did hint that this hike would be the final one after 10 straight rate hikes. The rate statement was somewhat dovish, with the Fed removing the phrase "some additional" rate hikes might be needed. It changed the language that said that it would examine various factors in "determining the extent" that further hikes would be needed. Powell sounded more hawkish in the press conference, saying that higher interest rates had not sufficiently slowed down the economy, the labour market or inflation. Just to be crystal clear, Powell said that “inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go". A rate cut, anyone? Powell said in his remarks that the inflation outlook does not support a rate cut. The markets disagree and have priced in an 81% rate cut in September (51% chance of 25-bp cut and 30% of 50-bp cut). Inflation is on its way down, but the pace of the deceleration could well determine if the Fed trims rates before the end of the year. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.1088 earlier. The next resistance line is 1.1157 1.1025 and 1.0956 are providing support
by OANDA