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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of December 9, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro dollar hit our target of the Mean Res 1.0585 twice this week. Advancement to the Key Res 1.0780 is getting more realistic and inevitable. The upcoming prevailing down path points to the new Mean Sup 1.0450 and extended Mean Sup 1.0330. However, once the current down sentiment occurs, a furious decline to the additional Mean Support levels may likely happen. Of course, the question is always “Which way will this puppy break from the current position?”
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Remains Capped By 1.0600, Fed, ECB Decisions Eyed The EUR/USD pair consolidates above the 1.0500 area on Friday, still unable to advance beyond the 1.0600 mark, with the pair edging lower after the release of U.S. Producer Price Index data.   At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0540 area, posting a 0.16% daily loss, having retreated from a high of 1.0588 earlier in the session. The pair is virtually unchanged in the week, trading just a few pips above last Friday’s closing price, following two consecutive weekly gains.   The 10-year U.S. bond yield bounced off a daily low of 3.45% and rose above 3.50%, fueling the greenback’s recovery. The DXY index is currently trading around 104.90, having recovered from a low of 104.48.   Data from the U.S. showed producer prices grew at a 7.4% annual rate in November, matching the market’s expectations and slower than the 8.1% rate reported in October. The core PPI rose by 6.2% YoY, above the expectations of 6% but below the 6.7% rate printed in October.   On Tuesday, U.S. Consumer Price Index data could offer a better picture of the inflation situation and finish shaping the investors' expectations about Fed’s decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. According to the WIRP tool, a 50 bps rate hike is fully priced in, and investors are only betting around 10% odds of a larger 75 bps move. In addition, the swaps market is pricing in a peak policy rate of 5.0%.   The European Central Bank will announce its decision on Thursday, and expectations also point to a 50 bps increase in its main rates, although Lagarde & Co. could "surprise" with a 75 bps move. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair retains the short-term bullish bias despite indicators on the daily chart losing some traction. The RSI remains in positive territory with a slightly negative slope, while the MACD stands right above its midline.   On the upside, the immediate resistance level is given by the 1.0600, where the psychological level is reinforced by a descending trend line drawn from May 2021 high, followed by the 1.0700 area. On the other hand, the following support levels are seen at the 20- and 200-day SMAs at 1.0410 and 1.0350.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
As we approach the last Fed/ECB meetings of the year.Last week, while the Federal Reserve changed its rhetoric from ‘hiking to fight inflation at all cost’ to ‘slow the pace of rate hike’, seismic waves rolled over the markets. As we approach the last central bank meetings of the year, the ECB meets on (15th Dec), Fed on the (14th Dec). A temperature check on the expected path of rates for the 2 major central banks would give us a good sense to position ourselves. The Fed After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last Wednesday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, one line in particular (“The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”) shifted the market’s perspective. With the USD weakening further and terminal rates repricing slower and lower than expected, markets seem to have priced in a 50-basis point hike by the Fed in its December meeting. A slowdown from the back-to-back 75 basis point hikes we have come accustomed to. As noted in the chart above the EURUSD pair has generally moved alongside the dollar direction, should the dollar continue its tumble downwards, the EURUSD is likely to trade higher. The ECB After raising rates by 75 basis points in the last meeting to 1.5%, the ECB still faces mounting inflation. Market expectations still swing between a 50 to 75 bps hike for the upcoming ECB meeting as the Eurozone still struggles with high inflation. The ECB may also have more headroom to maneuver as current rates remain below the expected terminal rate and the 200 basis points hike still pales in comparison to the Fed’s 375 basis points move. However, we do have to caveat that intricacies matter here, for example, the inflationary effects in the US are largely driven by the demand side, while in the Eurozone are driven by supply-side effects. Regardless, the next few days will remain key for any policymaker comments to guide the markets as the meeting date nears. Policy timing and direction uncertainty put the EURUSD pair on our watchlist. The last time the 2 central banking policy timelines diverged, we called it out on one of our previous ideas. You can check out here . Additionally, we spot an ascending triangle pattern on the chart which generally signifies a bullish continuation. With the previous ascending triangle breaking out in a textbook manner, we will watch if the current setup trades the same. Prices have also broken a previous support-turn-resistance level, which could prove as further conviction of the upward move. With a clear technical setup and the potential for the ECB to surprise hikes to the upside, we lean bullish on the EURUSD pair. We set our stop at the 1.0440 level, and take profit level at 1.0900, with each 0.00005 increment per EUR in the EURUSD futures contract equal to 6.25$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Sources: www.cmegroup.com www.ecb.europa.eu www.federalreserve.gov
Editors' picks
CME:6EZ2022Long
by inspirante
11
Euro pauses after sharp gains, NFP loomsEUR/USD is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.0524. The week wraps up with one of most important releases on the calendar, US nonfarm payrolls. The robust labour market is showing signs of cooling down, as rising interest rates have slowed economic activity. Nonfarm payrolls have been falling and the trend is expected to continue, with a consensus of 200,000 for November, down from 261,000 a month earlier. With the Fed holding its policy meeting on December 14th, the NFP report will be closely watched by policy makers, who have relied on a strong job market to press ahead with an aggressive rate cycle. The US dollar has been in retreat since Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday. The speech was balanced, with Powell reiterating that inflation remained too high and rates would continue to rise higher. Still, the markets focussed on the fact that Powell strongly hinted the Fed would ease rates at the December meeting with a 50-bp hike, and the optimism sent equities higher and the dollar lower. The euro has made the most of the dollar's weakness, and EUR/USD posted its best month since 2012, with gains in November of 5.3%. Still, the euro has been on a prolonged decline and started 2022 close to 1.14. The outlook for the euro is weak, as the European Commission expects the eurozone economy to decline in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. The driver of the expected decline is the huge jump in energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. The eurozone has been hit hard by double-digit inflation, and the ECB will have to continue raising rates, despite weak economic conditions, until it is convinced that inflation has peaked. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0583, followed by a monthly line at 1.0683 There is support at 1.0490 and 1.03537
by OANDA
EUR/USD edges higher as CPI fallsIt continues to be a quiet week for the euro. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0363. The ECB's number one priority has been bringing down inflation, which has hit double-digits. ECB policy makers are no doubt pleased that November CPI fell sharply to 10.0%, down from 10.6% a month earlier. This beat the consensus of 10.4%, and the euro has responded with slight gains. The drop in eurozone inflation was the first since June 2021, and investors will be hoping that this indicates that inflation is finally peaking. On Tuesday, German CPI showed a similar trend, falling to 10.0%, down from 10.4% (10.3% est). Still, eurozone Core CPI remained unchanged at 5.0%, matching the forecast. One inflation report is not sufficient to indicate a trend, and with inflation still in double digits, nobody is declaring victory in the battle against inflation. Still, the drop in German and eurozone inflation increases the likelihood of a 50 basis-point increase at the December 12th meeting, following two straight hikes of 75 basis points. With market direction very much connected to US interest rate movement, a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later today could be a market-mover. Powell is expected to discuss inflation and the labour market, and his remarks could echo the hawkish stance that Fed members have been signalling to the markets over the past several weeks. The market pricing for the December meeting is 65% for a 50-bp move and 35% for a 75-bp hike, which means that the markets aren't all on the Fed easing rates. Even if the Fed does slow to 50 bp in December, it will still be a record year of tightening, at 425 basis points. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0359. Above, there is resistance at 1.0490 There is support at 1.0264 and 1.0131
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of November 25, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Eurodollar declined to our Mean Sup 1.0285 as specified on the EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For November 18 chart followed by a rebound to strategic completed and retested Inner Currency Rally 1.0380. The current prevailing down path is pointing to the new Mean Sup 1.0237. The current down sentiment is prone to further declines: Mean Sup 1.014, 1.000, and 0.975. The down-trend projects for the Next Outer Currency Dip of 0.937 is being delayed.
by TradeSelecter
Euro steady as German data improvesUS markets are open for limited hours today, and investors are focussed on the World Cup and Black Friday rather than the US dollar. EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0392, down 0.18%. German data has not been spectacular this week, but nonetheless is moving in the right direction, as the German economy is in decent shape. Germany's GDP for Q3 was revised upwards to 0.4% QoQ, up from 0.3% and ahead of the consensus of -0.2%. This follows a 0.1% gain in GDP in Q1 and is all the more impressive, considering the headwinds on the global scene, in particular the war in Ukraine. Germany has made a mammoth effort to stockpile energy supplies and end its dependence on Russia, which should mean that an energy crisis can be avoided this winter. German Consumer confidence remains weak but improved slightly for a second straight month. The November reading rose to -40.2, up from -41.9, although shy of the consensus of -39.6. Business confidence also edged higher earlier this week, as did Business Expectations. The ECB minutes, released on Thursday, indicated that ECB members remained concerned about inflation becoming entrenched. Members were clear about the need to raise rates in order to bring inflation back down to the 2% target, and most members supported the 75-bp hike at the October meeting, with a few voting for a 50-bp move. The markets have priced in a 50-bp increase at the December 15th meeting, after ECB policymakers hit the airwaves and urged that the ECB slow down the pace of rate hikes. Still, with inflation at a crippling 10.6%, there's little doubt that the ECB will have to continue raising rates, and the markets expect the deposit rate, currently at 1.5%, to hit 3.0% in 2023. 1.0359 and 1.0238 are providing support There is resistance at 1.0447 and 1.0568
by OANDA
€ - Where To Next?€ - Where To Next? $EUR - BUY THE DIP?! As from my previous posts via trading view can be seen I was very bullish medium term hitting the target areas are currently at. However, lets take a bird eyes view of EUR! EUR currently at key resistance on Monthly - 1.03. Price may decline back towards support areas of 1.02/1.01 areas before heading higher IF we get out of this downwards channel drawn. Now let's not forget those that are into candle stick formation - you will start to enjoy looking at the major FX charts at higher TF. Above 8 EMA - 1.07 - 1.11 can easily be achieved. Fundamentally: Fundamentally strong about the EUR apart from lower print of CPI and the market had got very excited. Shorter term I'd be looking for pull back towards support areas stated above. Medium term if Fed pivot dovish less rate hikes as high, expect euro to escalate higher. The energy bet has been reversed, take a look at Nat Gas price is very lower and the capacity of energy reserved is at a level which there is nothing to be feared about, at this moment of time. Don't forget now that inflation spreads widen EUR - USD - it leaves a potential more hawkish ECB relative to Fed which again was stated in previous chart posted. Now of course the Fed could pivot and turn hawkish but I am doubtful on that and we could go into other factors such as seasonality and positioning. In my opinion trade what you see, not what you think and don't forget to get a greater R/R. All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
EURCHF: Long term Outlook Targets 1.04000 Region!EURCHF made a supply zone & resistance break on weekly timeframe! Looking for additional conformation, the monthly candle also closed above the supply zone. The ideal target remains the upcoming supply zone and stop out point should be below the swing low. All the technical details available on the main chart. Shall you wish to trade this opportunity you can do so by making sure the RR is at least 1:1. Trade Safely & Cautiously
Long
by FX618Analysis
EUR/USD Clings To 1.0300 On ECB Mixed Rhetoric, FOMC Minutes EyeThe EUR/USD pair struggled to make a decisive move on Tuesday and ended the day slightly above the 1.0300 mark as a cautious market mood and mixed signals from ECB members kept the euro’s upside limited. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0303 zone, 0.6% above its opening price. The euro managed to advance to a daily high of 1.0308 during the New York session. On Monday, Philip Lane, ECB Executive Board member, argued in favor of a smaller interest hike in the following December meeting of the Governing Council, claiming “One platform for considering a very large hike, such as 75 basis points, is no longer there.” However, he didn’t signal a stop of the hiking cycle but rather a contraction at a slower pace and at the appropriate time. On the other hand, Austria’s central bank governor Robert Holzmann claimed that there is no evidence of price pressures easing and that inflation expectations need to be well anchored. In that sense, he called for another big rate rise in December in order to send a strong message and to prove the bank’s determination to fight inflation. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, measured by the DXY index, snapped a three-day winning strike and fell back to the 107.15 area. On Wednesday, the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes will be released, which could shed some light on whether or not the Federal Reserve braces for a policy pivot in December. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD short-term bias remains tilted to the upside as indicators remain in positive ground on the daily chart while the price consolidates at the top of its recent range and above the 20- and 100-day SMAs. On the upside, the immediate resistance level is seen at the weekly highs at around 1.0330, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.0400. A break above the latter could improve the euro’s short-term perspective and pave the way to the 1.0500 area. On the other hand, the next support level could be faced at the 1.0220-00 area, followed by the November 11 low of 1.0163 and the 20-day SMA, currently at 1.0110.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EURGBP BearishAbsent the lack of key fundamental surprises I am slowly leaning to a bearish stance on this pair. The economic situations between the two is very similar. Both are also experiencing a much milder winter than was previously expected which seems to be helping both Germany and the U.K. economically. In my opinion, the BoE is being more dovish than the ECB regarding inflation expectations and terminal interest rate levels. Perhaps in a bid to achieve price stability. Divergence between the recent upward movement and the indicators shown suggests this current bullish formation is weak and may soon be exhausted. I believe the pair will likely see a move to the downside. If the current ascending channel (white) fails, I’ll be expecting to see 0.8700, 0.8648 and 0.8600. POI for short : 0.8860 - 0.8900
Short
by jamesfrench73
2
ERUGBP: Euro stronger?!EURGBP Intraday - We look to Buy at 0.8685 (stop at 0.8645) There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 0.8828. A lower correction is expected. With the Ichimoku cloud support below we expect dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 0.8800 and 0.8930 Resistance: 0.8815 / 0.8930 / 0.9070 Support: 0.8705 / 0.8565 / 0.8340 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
$USDJPY: Weekly trend signal points to a steady advance$USDJPY has a new trend continuation signal here, weekly and daily trends are bullish, as well as monthly, quarterly and even yearly. Energy and bonds suggest we will see rising yields for longer, FX looks like the dollar has ample reasons to remain bid and the BOJ and ECB are the weakest central banks here, relatively vs the Fed's policy stance, as well as from a macro standpoint as energy importers facing an energy crunch, which is bound to be negative variable as well. I'm long $UUP calls and short $NZDUSD, adding some $USDJPY exposure here to remain exposed to the dollar trend. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
Is it time to buy the $EUR & Why?Is it time to buy the $EUR & Why? As we head closer to ECB - If they are Hawkish and expected to raise rates even further, expect EUR to turn further bullish. We are at a key resistance area, now remember it isn't just ECB we focus on when it comes to EUR. Take into consideration the FOMC - Source - WSJ: Federal Reserve officials are barrelling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December. Now, yes we understand the further they hike the stronger DXY and that leads to the majors declining. However, we may have currency war at our hands we have had BOJ - intervene, even though they don't 'state' it, we've had various other countries concerned when it comes to FOMC further hikes but as they MAY slow down 75 basis points to 25 perhaps, this is easing the pressure on DXY leading the other currencies at very key areas! If we get hawkish ECB combined with this, expect euro to go back to previous levels of: 1.0500 - 1.03600. Technically: If we stay above these levels and go above 1.0000 handle over I do expect 1.03 to come into play. However, if we drift below 0.98500- 0.97500 then we back within range. Lastly, don't forget to trade your own trade plan! All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
1
Euro backtracks after strong rallyEUR/USD has reversed course today and is in negative territory. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0043, down 0.30%. The US dollar has rebounded after a 3-day slide against the major currencies. The dollar downswing started on Friday after a lukewarm employment report raised expectations that the Fed will deliver a "modest" 50-basis point, rather than a 75 bp move at the December meeting. This was followed by a short covering move on Monday which sent the dollar sharply lower, as risk appetite jumped ahead of the US midterms and Thursday's inflation report. The euro made the most of the dollar's weakness, rising 250 points in an impressive 3-day rally. The US dollar has rebounded against the majors today, including the euro. With the Federal Reserve remaining aggressive, even a 0.50% should be enough to give the dollar a boost, as rate differentials continue to widen. Inflation is running at a double-digit clip in the eurozone, but it's doubtful that the ECB will keep pace with the Fed, as the eurozone economy remains weak and higher rates are likely to tip the economy into a recession. The markets are keeping an eye on the US midterm elections, which are tighter than expected, as the Democrats are fighting to retain control of both the House and the Senate. Investors are focussing on Thursday's October US inflation report, which will be a key factor in Fed rate policy. Inflation is expected to have eased slightly, with headline inflation dropping to 8.0% (8.2% prior) and core inflation slowing to 6.5% (6.6%).  A drop in the October reading will raise expectations for the Fed to raise rates by 0.50% at the December meeting. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0134 and 1.0293 There is support at 1.0047 and 0.9888
Editors' picks
by OANDA
7
EURGBP short IF cross MABoth zones UK and Euro had rise their interest rates in 75bp. Days ago Lagard said ECB will continue raising rates to fight the inflation, and BOE are warning about a long recession, and the interest rates hikes in 30Y In this chart we can watch the price touching the resistance and a overbought at BB and RSI, changing the direction such as MACD that had already crossed the signal line. We can wait for the confirmation of short position after the candles cross the MA, and open our position against Eur if it's a strong short candle
Short
by AFCapital21
Euro stems nasty slide, NFP loomsEUR/USD has rebounded and is in positive territory. In the European session, the euro is trading at 0.9794, up 0.45%. The upswing has ended a 3-day slide, in which the euro fell as much as 270 points. The manufacturing sector in the eurozone continues to struggle. German and eurozone manufacturing PMIs are mired in contraction territory and German Factory Orders for September, published today, declined by a sharp 4.0%. A weak global economy has dampened manufacturing activity, and the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis in Western Europe will likely continue to take a toll on the eurozone economy. The grim economic outlook is a major headache for ECB policymakers, who must maneuver delicately between soaring inflation and a weak eurozone economy. The ECB joined the rate-hiking dance late and finds itself well behind the inflation curve, as headline inflation in the eurozone jumped to a staggering 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% in September. The ECB has little choice but to deliver an oversize rate hike in order to tackle double-digit inflation, and ECB President Lagarde has said that she would use "all the tools" available to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. All eyes are on today's US nonfarm payroll report. The labour market has been resilient in the face of steep rate hikes, although we are seeing a jump in job cuts. The consensus for the October NFP stands at 200,000, lower than the September reading of 263,000. The release will be carefully watched by the Fed, as the strength of the labor market is an important factor in the December rate decision. The markets have priced in a 50/50 toss-up between a hike of 0.50% or 0.75%, which could translate into volatility for the US dollar in today's North American session. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.9818. Next, there is resistance at 0.9956 0.9669 and 0.9531 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD approaching parity. Could a hawkish ECB push it higher?The ECB meets this week and is widely expected to increase rates by 75bps. With CPI at 10%, will the central bank indicate that it is willing to hike further going forward? EUR/USD broke above the top downward sloping trendline of the channel today that the pair has been in since mid-February. If the pair moves above parity, the first resistance level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the highs of February 10th to the lows of September 28th, near 1.0284. Above there is strong horizontal resistance at 1.0349/1.0368 and then a confluence of resistance at the 200 Day Moving Average and the 50% retracement of the above-mentioned timeframe near 1.0515. However, watch the statement closely. If the ECB is more worried about a recession than inflation, the pair could be back at previous lows near 0.9536 in no time!
by FOREXcom
2