Get started

Ecb

It’s Recalibration, Not Tapering (10 September 2021)The ECB’s decision. The European Central Bank (ECB) held its interest rates unchanged during their monetary policy meeting yesterday. Main Refinancing Operations Rate: 0.00% Marginal Lending Facility Rate: 0.25% Deposit Facility Rate: -0.50% The size of its quantitative easing (QE) programmes remains unchanged as well. Asset Purchase Programme (APP): €20 billion per month Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP): €1,850 billion in total On top of that, the central bank has opted for a reduction of pace in its assets purchase under the PEPP but did not provide more details on the amount. At the moment, €80 billion worth of assets are being purchased on a monthly basis. It’s recalibration, not tapering. Just when the market is trying to figure out from the monetary policy statement if the ECB has just carried out a QE tapering, the central bank’s President Christine Lagarde elucidated that the reduction of the pace is not a tapering, but a recalibration. The ECB’s decision “is to calibrate the pace of our purchases in order to deliver on our goal of favourable financing conditions”. President Lagarde’s comment left the market wondering how significant is such an action carried out by the central bank going to have on QE if it is not considered as tapering. As a result, the euro was moving in an unclear direction. Positive inflation projections. Although the ECB’s action is likely going to spark some discussions over its ambiguity, one thing we know for sure is that the central bank is feeling confident in the recent rise in inflation in the eurozone. As released in the quarterly projection materials, overall inflation forecasts have been revised upwards. Inflation Projections: 2021: revised upwards from previous 1.9% to 2.2% 2022: revised upwards from previous 1.5% to 1.7% 2023: revised upwards from previous 1.4% to 1.5%
by GH_Lee
EURUSD before ECBIf you have been following our daily analysis, you should know that we expected a trend reversal on the hourly chart from 1,1900 We are currently in the next key moment for EURUSD. There is less than an hour left before the interest rate decision from the ECB, and that will be followed with a press conference 45 minutes later! That will lead to big fluctuations and it will be the moment in which price action will either confirm or reject a downside move on EURUSD. We're expecting a drop towards the first support at 1,1760 and then possibly 1,1680. Of course we could see a move in the opposite direction at first and that's why our stops should be above 1,1900! Entries before the news are quite risky!
Short
by ForexTrendline
20
EURUSD: waiting for an extension of the pullbackHi Guys, the idea on this pair is to wait for an extension of the pullback to exceed 1.19088. This move was enbedded in the divergence between sentiment and price lows and stopped at July H in conjunction with NFP release on Sept.3rd. In this occasion the indicator didn't stop and exceeded it's July H forming a divergence also between latest two tops. Price: NFP H = July H RSI: NFP H > July H Today price has been hit by some near-term profit taking. However I still look for an extension above July H running possibly into 200SMA at 1.20029. To enter the market I am waiting for a bullish set up on LTF that may boost an attack to July H. Today's German Factory Order should be supportive for the EUR and also for EU GDP data to be released tomorrow. Important ECB meeting will take place on Thursday. The expected move may not take place before ECB meeting is finished. Be ready to take action only when right set up favours your objectives. If you have any queries please do not hesitate to ask. Good luck everybody! Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Before you decide to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully assess your investment objectives, experience, financial possibilities and willingness to take risks. There is a possibility that you will lose your initial investment partially or completely. Therefore, you should not invest any funds that you cannot afford to completely lose in a worst-case scenario. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and contact an independent financial advisor in case of doubt.
by cozzamara
EURUSD Cooling OffEURUSD pushed ahead last week due to a poor U.S. jobs report. The problem with the jobs report is the Fed has to choose between unemployment or inflation to control. Since inflation has cooled off last month and the Fed insists its transitory, so will they reduce the pace of tapering or even delay it's announcement? This gives USD weakness. The issue this week is the ECB will not announce tapering on Thursday and the long positions on EURUSD from speculators may be closed or reigned in before then. With that in mind and the resistance to the left from a while back, we should see a retracement...
Short
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
EURUSD The movement after the breakoutHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ on Aug 31 I talked about the EURUSD market and how it's moving Bullish after a Breakout in the trend, Today we see that the market moved exactly like we thought it would. EUR/USD is trading flat in a quiet start to the week with North America out for the day on holiday. The EUR/USD pair rallied higher all of last week to reach the end of July high at 1.1909. and now trending near the resistance line at 1.19010. Possible Scenarios for the market movement for the new period of time : Scenario 1: The market is nearing the resistance zone between 1.1889 - 1.1892 after a great week of Bullish movement the Bulls does seem to have enough power to breakout that zone and if that happens we will be seeing the price going up near the June Resistance zone at 1.19312 Scenario 2: when the market reaches the resistance zone between 1.1889 - 1.1892 a battle will happen between the Bears and Bulls, IF the Bears were able to gain control back over the market then the price will drop down and it will go near the first support zone 1.18172 where the Bulls will gather whatever power they may have to gain Bullish momentum and control the trend and push it back up. Technical indicators show : The market is above the 5 10 20 50 MA and EMA, But still below the 100 and 200 MA & EMA ( this indicates that the short-term trend for now seems Bullish but for the long-term trend of the market is still looking Bearish). The MACD is above the 0 line showing that the market is in a Bullish state with a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line. The RSI is at 60.00 showing great strength in the market with no divergences found on the daily chart yet. Daily Support & Resistance points : support Resistance 1) 1.1881 1) 1.1889 2) 1.1876 2) 1.1892 3) 1.1874 3) 1.1897 Fundamental point of view : As the market shifts its attention to the ECB meeting on Thursday, ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ is an apt strategy that springs to mind, according to economists at Société Générale. The EUR/USD pair should head higher towards the 1.1910 resistance on a hawkish message from the European Central Bank. The ECB ( European Central Bank) hawks are spooked by the recent rising inflation numbers but the doves are firmly in control right now and so the policy is likely to remain loose for the time being. However, certain members of the central banks are less dovish, including Governing Council member Francois Villeroy who said the bank should consider more favorable financing conditions in the eurozone in deciding on the pace of PEPP this week. According to Fxstreet This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
Long
by GabiDahduh
The tale of a 1001 golden bullish pipsWelcome back traders to the last month of Q3. It was quiet from my side for some time, due to the summer holiday break and major risk events on the horizon. A lot has changed in a few weeks. The market was pricing in tapering and interest rate hikes by the FED in early June, but the sentiment changed quickly after a disappointing speech for dollar bulls by Powell during Jackson Hole. The NFP came in very disappointing last Friday, and the stagflation drums are beating again. Jackson Hole So alot hinged on Powell's speech during Jackson Hole. As always Powell was very vague, however he did mention a couple of interesting things; 1. They will start tapering this year 🔹Not clear how much, could be $1 billion or $10 billion per month 🔹Not clear when (September, November or December FOMC-meeting) 🔹Since the August NFP missed its forecast and came in lower than 500k, it is unlikely they will announce tapering at the September FOMC-meeting 🔹Leaves us with the November and December FOMC-meeting as possible tapering announcement moments 2. No interest hikes for the foreseeable future 🔹Cheap money in abundance for the foreseeable future Yes, there will be tapering in place this year (most probably December), however the FED will keep drowning the market with cheap money in the meantime. Take note that tapering doesn't mean that they will take money out of the market, however it means they will slow down the money injections into the market. Reading between the lines it means the FED balance sheet will keep growing, however at a slower pace (currently $8.4 trillion). Eurozone The shift of attention of traders moves to the next world reserve currency. With the Eurozone economy growing at its fastest pace on record and inflation set to rise further, pressure on the ECB to taper its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) is building. It is widely expected by economists and analysts that there will be an announcement during the ECB-meeting coming Thursday to start taper its PEPP-program in December. This will obviously be bullish for EURUSD and have bearish implications for gold (somewhat) and the dollar. Technicals DXY Although I expected the dollar would break out after the August NFP, it did not so. Currently it seems the dollar bears have been building a bearflag on the daily chart and the third test of 89.5 might do the trick for a breakdown towards 88 and lower. Gold Gold made some good bullish moves since the flashcrash of early August and we are back above 1800, however it failed again to close the day and week above the 0.382 fibo retracement level ($1829). This implies bullish weakness and I am expecting a bearish retracement first towards the 1770-1790 zone and bullish continuation towards 1875, 1925 & 1960 afterwards due to dollar weakness to complete an inverse H&S pattern. A solid break of 1835 on the daily chart will make things extremely bullish in goldyland, as this will confirm the triple bottom and this will invite bigger bulls to the arena. EURUSD On EURUSD I am very bullish due to the Bullish Wolfe Wave on the weekly chart (send me a DM if you see it too) and the touch of the bearish trendline that broke July 2020 and turned bullish support. I am expecting to see the break of 1.235 before end of year with endtarget 1.28 (Q1 2022). Indices I am still bullish on indices as long as the Dow Jones (US30) hasn't touched the 36.6k mark and I am expecting one more blow-off top before we see a market correction of at least 20% (if not more). However I am not buying and I do not advise to buy all time highs to anyone. Rather I would like to stay put and wait for my projected reversal point to sell the equities market to the highest bidder. Beautiful days ahead with a lot of pips to be collected. Love and hugs, Cesaro 😎
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
2
Strong markets in Europe maintain risk-on sentimentMarkets in Asia and especially in Europe started September strongly after higher-than-expected inflation in the eurozone and very optimistic comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who said that the eurozone economy is growing faster than the ECB expected, hinting at an upward revision of the central bank's growth forecast. On the downside, German retail sales disappointed in July, falling 5.1% month-on-month. Eurozone manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, but remained near record levels. August, normally a complicated month for the stock market, saw several record closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, with US equities pointing to a positive performance on the first day of the new month. The important 10-year US Treasury yield rose well above 1.3% again (currently at 1.32%). The USD remains weak ahead of the US jobs report in focus on Friday. Oil prices remained in a sideways range ahead of today's OPEC+ meeting. Ethereum broke through $3,500, the highest level since May 18. Bitcoin continues to trade in the $47K - $48K range. Despite rising expectations that central banks will gradually move away from pandemic-era stimulus programs, markets continue to rise, showing that investment banks remain confident that the sustained rise in the stock market will continue. Statements from ECB officials showed that the ECB is optimistic about economic developments in the eurozone, but also that the conditions for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures are almost met. Higher 10-year US Treasury yields can be seen as an indicator that US investors also believe that economic growth will continue for longer. September was the worst month for equities in the last two decades, and we also see hedge funds preparing for a reversal. For now, markets remain optimistic, waiting for more clues on the Fed's plans for the coming months. The ECB's optimistic comments have eased growth concerns for now. Risk sentiment remains positive, supporting risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD, NZD and emerging market currencies. The rise in the EUR is likely to continue as expectations rise that the ECB has started internal talks on scaling back stimulus measures, which the ECB will then report on in detail at the upcoming ECB meeting (on Sep 9).
E
by MarMat1500
EURJPY itching to resume bull trendUpdates coming here after the Jackson week Bearish JPY and looking to play versus EUR . Actively adding here as the l/term uptrend is set to resume, we can look to target fresh highs here at 134.1x and continue to expect JPY to underperform in Q3 and Q4. Indeed the break is signalling in advance that the direction is still up. Price action above 129 is proving interesting, the break of 'B' will define whether there is a chance of another pullback or the move is direct and imply the base has materialised.
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | The base is fixedA quick round of illustrations to review the swings in euro... The idea of the swing; we are mapping bids and offers, no more no less. Two battlefields, the wings are what we attack on and the centre is where we begin to clear (into thrusts and etc). Lets start with the Yearly chart for our macro direction: Very clear the base has been attacked previously many times, lulling sellers into capturing before trapping them on the return. Eurobonds / debt mutualisation has fixed the base in 2020, covid was for Angela Merkel what Britain was for Alexander Hamilton. Now lets check the Monthly in Euro first and then Dollar: Both are very clear with direction and the developments that have arisen. The new weakness in dollar should be energetically got at while the exploitation of the risk on continues until all that is left in the endgame. We still have another few months of riding the pig and marching triumphantly forward before we need to review charts. On the Daily, 1.176x - 1.173x is acting as strong support. Buyers could overcome all their difficulties with a break of the volatility triangle/compression. Under no circumstances should buyers surrender while the lows are still holding. You can see how much damage is there to be done, clearly an expensive area to be selling into, while a cheap and open file to be buying into. To the topside, targets coming into play at 1.198x, 1.225x and 1.250x. Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming !!
Long
by ridethepig
7
EUR/USD weekly outlook: NFP charges the greenbackHello traders and happy Friday. It's time for our weekly outlooks of major FX pairs. First on the list is EUR/USD. The pair moved sharply lower today after strong NFP numbers from the United States (943K vs 870K expected) helped markets to reprice their Fed tapering expectations. Hawkish comments from the Fed Vice-Chairman Richard Clarida that the US is well on track to start policy normalization also supported the US dollar, which is now threatening the 1.1750 support level in the pair. The rapid spread of the Delta variant and its impact on the global economic recovery prospects could also continue to underpin demand for the safe-haven dollar. In combination with the ultra-loose ECB, this doesn't look good for the pair. The euro lacks important reports next week (except the German ZEW, expected lower). In the US, markets will be looking at CPI and PPI reports (both expected slightly softer), although market reaction might be rather muted in light of the upbeat NFP release. As noted earlier, Fed's Clarida hawkish comments and a strong US labor market provided some meaningful support to short-end UST yields, which are now printing a strong bearish divergence with short-end eurozone yields. Despite the cautious tone of Fed's Powell at the last FOMC meeting, I expect that the Fed could announce a tapering timeline at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in late August (26-28). And here is an overview of US Treasury yields for the last four months. The recent spike in short-end yields (bear flattener) underpins the market's cautious outlook on the global economic recovery in the long-term - another positive sign for the safe-haven dollar. Risk reversals don't provide many insights for the next week, although options expires point at a modest upside risk. Large options expiries can act like a magnet for the spot price. Most of the time, the US dollar tends to give back some gains after a strong NFP release, so be prepared for a slight upside correction next week. The daily chart shows a falling wedge formation but the apex looks still far away (fourth leg is forming.) The downtrend is now well in play with the lower range support (1.1750) acting as a major hurdle for further downside. Given the common USD weakness on Monday after a strong NFP release, and the pair printing almost 2xATR today, a pullback to the upper 1.17xx area (50% pullback of the recent down leg or 50% of the post-NFP range) could provide a better selling opportunity for shorter-term traders (1-hour chart). The 1.17 level acts as a round-number and wedge-support target to the downside. == SUMMARY == I remain bearish on EUR/USD and look for attractive selling opportunities on strength.
Short
by MujkanovicFX
ECB Meeting And Its New Inflation Target (23 July 2021)New monetary policy strategy. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) reconvened its policy review that was postponed since last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. During the review, the central bank revised its current goal of achieving an inflation level of “below, but close to 2%” to the new goal of achieving 2% inflation with overshoots allowed. This new inflation target is symmetric, meaning to say that inflation falling below or rising above the 2% target are both equally undesirable. However, knowing that it is unlikely inflation will be constantly maintained at the 2% target, slight deviation from 2% temporarily is still acceptable by the ECB. But if inflation were to deviate from that target by a significant amount for a sustained period of time, the central bank will carry out the necessary actions to address it. Revised forward guidance. During the monetary policy meeting yesterday, the ECB held its interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) unchanged. The central bank’s President Christine Lagarde said that no discussion on quantitative easing was carried out. In response to the newly adopted inflation target, the ECB has revised its forward guidance on interest rates. “In support of its symmetric two per cent inflation target and in line with its monetary policy strategy, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term. This may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.” Simply put, the central bank will consider an interest rate hike only when inflation is seen to be reaching the 2% target way before the end of its projection horizon and is deemed to sustain for the rest of the projection horizon. Based on the ECB’s economic projection material, the projection horizon is defined to be three years. With the revised forward guidance, the ECB is now seen to be more accommodative for a longer duration. Looking at the ECB’s quarterly economic projections released in June, Inflation Forecast 2021: 1.9% 2022: 1.5% 2023: 1.4% we can see that the central bank’s inflation expectation is still quite a distance from 2%. During the press conference, Lagarde also highlighted that the ECB is expecting “inflation to rise over the medium term” although it is still below the 2% target, while “longer term inflation expectations have increased” but are some distance away from the target. Lagarde also mentioned that the recent rise in inflation in the eurozone is largely due to temporary drivers such as higher energy prices and base effects from the strong decline in oil prices. With the persistently low inflation in the eurozone, it is unlikely the ECB will carry out a rate hike in the near future.
by GH_Lee
EURUSD before ECB | What to expect? The analysis from yesterday is going as expected and it confirms the direction that we were looking at. And that gives us an opportunity to look for short positions today! But there are a few conditions! Do not enter a trade now. We're still waiting for ECB interest rate decision. That will cause volatility in the market. It is also very likely that there will be some misleading moves and that will be our moment to make an entry. We are going to be watching out for a certain price reaction in the selling zone and in case we see engulfing candles or long wick candles, then we're going to be looking for an entry. EURUSD should not rise above 1,1880, otherwise this scenario wouldn't be valid! If we see price pushing off of the zone then we could expect another downside move to 1,1700!
Short
by ForexTrendline
34
EURUSD eyes monthly resistance ahead of ECBEURUSD holds onto the previous day’s bounce off three-month low, though with a lesser pace, towards a downward sloping resistance line from June 25 ahead of Thursday’s European Central bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although the policymakers are expected to stand pat, comments over the economic outlook will be the key to break the immediate hurdle surrounding 1.1810. While the sustained breakout could recall the 1.1880, any further upside will be less convincing until crossing 1.1920 resistance confluence including 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of March-May upside and 200-day EMA. Meanwhile, 1.1770 and the latest low of 1.1750 could entertain the EURUSD bears during the fresh downside. Following that, the yearly bottom surrounding 1.1700 will be crucial. Should the pair sellers remain dominant past the 1.1700 threshold, November 2020 lows near the 1.1600 round figure will be in focus. Overall, EURUSD remains in a bearish trajectory but the ECB needs to speak dovish for the trend to last.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
1
What do we expect from EURUSD?EURUSD is currently in a downtrend on the H1 chart. We sent out multiple selling opportunities in this trend. Now we expect another downside move but... Before that we have ECB Interest Rate Decision. Those news could affect price by temporary taking price back to a higher levels. Any of those upside moves should end below 1,1880 in order for price to remain in a downtrend. And at this moment of price going back to the upside we could find the best risk to reward ratio trades! If price reaches 1,1800-30 and it then gives us a rejection signal then that will be a perfect entry opportunity. Before that all we're gonna be doing is wait and trade the other instruments. In case of price continuing lower, next target is 1,1700!
Short
by ForexTrendline
8
Portfolio: Long EURGBPI am going long EURGBP at 86.00 with a stop loss at 85.20 and a target of 88.60 using 2% of capital. I have already articulated in both the latest chart packs that we are seeing pressure on USD and US10Y. This is a good example for us to use to highlight the slightly more cautious tone in GBP. This selloff looks like it has run out of steam around 0.853x and should begin accelerating towards 2021 highs at 0.922x once we break the channel resistance ahead.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ECB & Fed: Checking The TurnWave 3 - Chapter I Introduction and general comments After clearing ECB & FED it is well known that hikes are cooking very creditably and the monetary side appears to be quite helpless in the endgame. The most well-handled analogy from poker is "checking the turn", both Powell and Lagarde showcased the ability to play this with skill. It may be in the nature of things for markets to gather first plenty of participation in the opening, but this problem for bears must be tackled as soon as possible. You must be aware that from the very start of June we have seen one way traffic for sellers, there are now stale leftovers compared with the feast that is cooking for buyers. The realisation will soon kick in that not enough time has elapsed for sellers to pack and defend the ladder appropriately, meaning a material occupation of control from buyers will trigger a slingshot higher as they cover quickly. Example 1 : Buyers were the most important actor present during the Covid Compression. They headed for the apex and at the same time eurobonds protected the base and propelled the swing into 1.20+. Example 2 : Here too from the zoomed out picture we can see how buyers control the flows and choose a 5 wave sequence, first targeting the 1.20xx main area which we cleared in the tweet, and second, the 1.25/1.26 area which can now be made more enterprising in Q3. The next move in play here is an impulsive wave from 1.185x => 1.25xx/1.26xx. Since the immediate expectation of inflation is now being forced via Fed, this is an exchange the ECB will lose. Breaking below 1.17xx will imply an imbalance between sellers and buyers.
Long
by ridethepig
20
Positional PlayA quick update to the Euro chart here after clearing the well known ECB positioning. This was the last thing we needed to mark a significant floor; anticipation of 1.176x (Strong Support) holding has clearly applied and for those building their own positions internally, protection is defined below March lows (1.168x) while targets above come into play at 1.217x and 1.250x. Admittedly we overshot the wave (2) slightly more than I thought, however, as has already been mentioned in the previous chart(s), we were neither tracking buyers nor sellers, rather what was essential this time around in my books, was macro positioning. What was needed was a fresh and energetic low to draw participants in before enough time elapsed for the fundamental side to materialise. If we set aside for a moment, a quick recap of the previous chart for the new readers here, this is what we were previously tracking, to set into motion the "teeing" off. So the positioning players now have picked their sides, buyers clearly are looking to make a freeing swing towards the 1.25xx handle and post their profits for the year, while sellers are now poorly positioned in terms of risk:reward, and those looking to breakdown need it to happen in such a way as to open the next leg lower in EURUSD in 2022 and beyond. In saying this, we must not get too far ahead, the move here we are tracking is a slingshot towards the topside with Dollar under severe pressure once more.
Long
by ridethepig
17
Eight-month-old support line test EURUSD bears on ECB dayEURUSD bounces off an ascending support line from November 2020 amid oversold RSI during early Thursday. However, sellers remain hopeful as MACD keeps flashing bearish signals ahead of the ECB’s special meeting. The bloc’s central bank is widely expected to repeat support for easy money policies, likely extending the latest corrective pullback towards a two-week-old resistance line near 1.1870. However, any further recovery will be checked by the 200-day EMA surrounding 1.1930, as well as a four-month-long horizontal resistance near the 1.1990–2000 area. Alternatively, any surprise moves, coupled with the further covid-led risk-off mood, could drag the quote below the key trend line support around 1.1780. The same will drag EURUSD prices to the yearly low near 1.1700 before highlighting the November 2020 low of 1.1602. It’s worth noting that the US dollar’s safe-haven allure is likely to keep the major currency pair pressured even if the counter-trend traders benefit on Thursday.
Short
by MTradingGlobal