Get started

Ecb

Euro slips below 1.13 but recoversThe euro lost ground earlier on Thursday but has recovered most of these losses. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1337, down 0.08% on the day. With a very light economic calendar this week, the markets are being driven by sentiment, which essentially means the latest Omicron headlines. The markets remain fairly upbeat, despite the explosion in Omicron infections. France and the US posted all-time record highs for the number of new cases, but that hasn't made a dint in investor sentiment. The equity markets are humming, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones posting record highs, while the safe-haven dollar is broadly lower as risk tolerance remains elevated. This upbeat mood was reinforced by a larger than expected decline in US crude oil inventories and an unemployment claims release of 198 thousand, which was better than expected. This suggests that the US economy continues to perform well, even with the newest Covid wave. ECB President Christine Lagarde has been rather dismissive of inflationary pressures, even with eurozone inflation hitting a record 4.9% y/y in November. The ECB this month projected that inflation will fall to 1.8% after 2022, but this view is by no means unanimous. In an interview published on Thursday, ECB member Klaas Knot said that eurozone CPI could well remain above the bank's 2% target for years and that the bank's forecast "could prove to be too rosy". The ECB has no plans to change its accommodative policy, and plans to continue QE even while winding up its emergency pandemic programme (PEPP) in March 2022. Spain's Flash CPI for December is estimated at 6.7%, much higher than the 5.5% gain in November. If eurozone CPI releases in early January also show an uptick, we could see additional ECB members echo Knot's view that inflation could stay above the bank's 2% target in the coming years. . EUR/USD has support at 1.1255. Below, there is support at 1.1190 There is resistance at 1.1364 and 1.1408
by OANDA
1
$EURJPY: Daily uptrend once again...Seems like yields have bottomed in the US, we got a shot at a reflationary/reopening move thanks to the recent wave of news surrounding Omicron and the $PFE/$MRK pills, together with a nice sentiment reset for the past month across the board. I'd suggest going long XXXJPY here, I'm in $GBPJPY and $EURJPY personally, but $AUDJPY also has a nice signal as well and historically correlates equities, in particular in periods like what could unfold next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Omicron Could Drive EURJPY To 125.000!Ascending channel on weekly TF broke, bullish flag and pole formation is currently developing at the moment. In a long run, this pair has been in an uptrend, however since the channel and psychological barrier of 130.000 broke, the price is likely to aim the next support that lies at 125.400! TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bullish pole and flag formation currently in play on W charts. The 130.000 psychological barrier broke with M candle closing below it. This signals the price is ready to head lower towards 125.000 support area. This SHORT move signals further consolidation in EURJPY (FLAG CONTINUATION) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS *Omicron the main driver for this pair at the moment *Anticipated rise in the cases globally after the festive season would make JPY safehaven demand rebound, thus sending EURJPY lower HOW TO TRADE? Trade could be executed at this moment with the following suggested details as the risk to reward ratio is favorable at the current price ENTRY: 130.000 & ABOVE STOP LOSS: AT SWING HIGH 133.750 TAKE PROFIT: NEAR SUPPORT 125.4000 RR: > 1:1 Cheers & Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
2
EURUSD - Roads to the mastering of positional play(an affinity between 'C' legs and 'impulsive' swings.... patience pays) 1. Counter the false conception that every single break lower has to produce an immediate effect; waiting plays and methodical moves are totally justified. 2. Recognise the idea of prevention in this breakdown as being a key reversal in play! With this in mind, the struggle for sellers to keep buyers from breaking up, and in doing so preventing any sense or organisational defence to your position is just asking for trouble. Technically we are at a very important point, a lot of air above till 1.19 and 1.21. 3. Have tremendous respect for wave strategy, avoid any premature moves, when the timing is right, begin to flank your opponent and play to operate under the watchword of centralisation. 4. Aim for a total swing, if you are not in from 1.161/1.162, 1.168x, still a great deal of mobility in the risk to reward at these levels. The barrier at 1.15 on the one side, with very little till 1.21 to the other. 5. Get used to inflation becoming the restraint of ECB; do not let Lagarde lip service approach intoxicate your decision making. 6. What is important here to remember, play is an attack, not defence, but only momentum! For those who were following the earlier stages in this leg, we are trading a very similar setup to:
Long
by ridethepig
16
EURUSD: What Story Is the Bigger Picture Telling Us?Most of us either are scalpers & day traders. A very few categories of traders perform swing and position trades, as it involves higher timeframe analysis possibly from 4H & above up until monthly candles. Here we analyze the EURUSD M charts and try to observe what the market is telling us on a larger scale! Currently the price of the EURUSD is approaching a long term concrete ascending trendline that has been validated or tested on 3 different occasions. The blue horizontal lines on the M charts represent concrete psychological support and resistance levels which are highly efficient when utilized on monthly timeframes. At the moment, the price is approaching or near the 1.10000 psychological support which also coincides with our long term rising trendline. With FED tapering faster and 2-3 hikes already priced in, the outlook for EURUSD on a larger scale remains dark in 2022. However as traders we should always trade with confirmation and seeing this trendline has been tested on multiple occasions and respected, we need for the monthly candle to pierce and close below this trendline and 1.1000 psychological support. After this a SHORT trade could be executed with the target being the next psychological support at 1.05000. On the flip side, shall this trendline hold, the outlook for EURUSD would still remain bearish unless 1.25000 level and previous high is cleared. In short, the outlook remains bearish on both M & W timeframe for the EURO. On lower Timeframes such as the D & 4H, traders could possibly analyze to execute LONG trades but caution and confirmation. With FED tightening priced in, it remains to be seen if the US economy would actually meet the expectations in 2022. if we see stronger data and expectations meeting, we could see the greenback appreciate and break this trendline. However if the opposite occurs, we should expect this trendline to hold. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful. Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
EUR/GBP - Key Support HoldingWith both the ECB and BoE meetings now behind us, how do we assess the impact on the currencies and what it means going forward? Interestingly, there were no major surprises on either side. The BoE moved slightly earlier while the ECB tweaked its asset purchases, with the result being that the PEPP comes to an end in March while the support it provided is only slowly phased out over an additional six months. In terms of the technicals, there may also be some interesting takeaways. The spike lower yesterday saw the pair run into support around the 61.8 fib (4-hour chart) before quickly recovering to sit back above the 50 fib and 200/233-period SMA band. This had been key support prior to the meetings and remains so now. If 0.85 holds, it could potentially be a very bullish signal going into the new year. Another failure and the long-term downtrend may continue.
by OANDA
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsGBP/BoE – Sterling jumped to December highs on Thursday after the Bank of England surprised investors by hiking interest rates by 15 basis points, taking the Official Bank Rate to 0.25%, with only Tenreyro dissenting in a vote split of 8-0-1. Commenting on the BoE’s decision, Berenberg noted that “having first guided markets into betting on a rate hike in November, the Bank of England today defied market expectations again by finally pulling the trigger. We expect a further 25 basis point hike in February 2022 to take the bank rate to 0.5%.” Meanwhile, IG added that “the announcement does look like a bit of a panic move – the Bank of England is probably regretting its decision not to move last month when Omicron wasn’t even an issue.” EUR/ECB – The ECB kept interest rates on hold at their December meeting but did announce the end of its pandemic emergency asset-buying scheme, with the central bank looking to begin tapering from March onwards. However, the ECB also promised support as needed via its long-running Asset Purchase Programme, confirmed its relaxed view on inflation, and signaled that any exit from years of ultra-easy policy would be slow.
by thunderpips
10
GBPNZD Long IdeaGBPNZD has just seen a small sell-off towards the levels of 1.9495 however it appears that there has been some support formed here. If the BoE decides to raise interest rates then it's likely for GBPNZD to push forward and test the previous high of 1.97. As the Fed plans more rate hikes in 2022 it's possible for the UK to follow suit, which is why I'm bullish on pound pairs approaching the end of the week. The stop-loss area for this trade is located just below the bottom of the range at 1.93658.
Long
by Orion-Markets
EUR/GBP - Rally Stalls But Breakout Still PossibleThe euro has been on an impressive run against the pound recently and as you'd expect, the rally stalled around the 200/233-day SMA band. But it may not be over yet. The pair was always likely to see significant resistance here, having done so in the past, but the important thing is what follows next. It's worth noting that the Bank of England and European Central Bank will both announce their latest interest rate decisions on Wednesday, with the latter also providing new economic forecasts and perhaps some insight into what, if anything, will replace the PEPP program in March. This will surely have a huge role to play on where the pair breaks next. With the pair pulling back, the key test below is 0.85, where the December lows coincide with the 50 fib level - November lows to December highs - and the 200/233-period SMA band on the 4-hour chart. A move below here could tip momentum back in the favour of the sellers and see the pair resume its long-term downward trend. If this level holds, we could see another run at last week's highs, and, who knows, the pair could be heading into the new year on a much more bullish note.
by OANDA
1
EUR/USD - Consolidation Ahead of Fed and ECBIt would seem EURUSD is in consolidation ahead of the Fed and ECB events this week. It appeared to be flirting with a breakout higher but it wasn't long until bulls abandoned ship, ahead of the recent highs in fact, in a sign that they had little confidence of achieving a substantial breakout ahead of the rate decisions. Given the amount of uncertainty around both, not to mention omicron, it's perhaps not too surprising that we aren't seeing a more significant breakout at this stage. The Fed could accelerate its tapering but in the absence of concrete data on the new variant, it may be hesitant to offer too much on interest rate guidance. Of course, the dot plot means we will get a much better grasp and I expect forecasts will be much more hawkish, but we could see a strong sprinkling of dovish caveats. The ECB is in a similar, albeit less pressured, situation. They don't quite seem prepared to retire transitory yet but there's one big question on everyone's lips. What will replace PEPP in March? Can it be extended now that there's a new variant running wild? With so many questions to be answered, we could be in for a couple more days of consolidation, after which, a breakout may follow. The notable levels above and below remain largely the same, with 1.12 below the major support level and 1.14 above key resistance. There may be a giveaway prior to this, with a break of the recent highs (1.1320) or lows (1.1260) perhaps signalling a shift, but a break of the earlier levels will be more significant.
by OANDA
EURGBP: Support break can lead to further losses!EURGBP as seen has likely rejected the long term descending daily trendline and now has eyes to move lower. To confirm this move, the daily candle needs to close below 0.84900 support which would open the door to further drop towards the next support located at 0.83800. The stop loss can ideally be placed above the long term daily descending trendline to achieve 1:1 RISK TO REWARD RATIO. My analysis is not meant to be a trading signal nor financial advice! Its highly advisable to perform your own analysis and trade markets at your own risk. Please LIKE & FOLLOW if you found this analysis helpful in assisting with your own personal analysis. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
EURAUD: Nice long setupLooks like we have a 2.61R potential trade in the Euro vs the Aussie dollar here. I'm long, thinking it can easily hit the target zone, considering that the $EURUSD down trend signal in the daily chart has panned out, $DXY hit the weekly target, and timing for a daily move in $EURUSD has elapsed, implying a possible mean reversion or reversal move in that pair. $AUDUSD is acting weak, and the ratio shows a good reward to risk high probability Time@Mode setup. Seems like an easy win. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
Euro punches above 1.12The euro has reversed directions and is back above the 1.1200 level. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1222, up 0.19% on the day. Where is ECB policy headed? That is no easy question, as we are getting mixed messages from ECB officials. Governor Christine Lagarde has pushed back against market bets of a rate hike in late 2022. Earlier this month, Lagarde said that it was 'very unlikely' that the ECB would raise rates in 2022, as inflation was too low. Contrast this stance with that of ECB member Isabel Schnabel, who said this week that "risks to inflation are skewed to the upside". It is unusual to hear a hawkish view from the dovish ECB, and the markets factored in a 0.10% rate increase in December 2022 following Schnabel's comments. There is also uncertainty as to the future of the ECB pandemic bond-buying program (PEPP). The bank is expected to announce at its December meeting that it will end bond purchases at the end of March. This stance was reiterated in the ECB minutes on Thursday, which said that based on current developments, the ECB expected to wind up purchases in March. However, on Wednesday, ECB member Robert Holzmann said that the bank could put the programme on hold rather than abolish it altogether. Holzmann's comments could be in response to the spike in Covid cases in Germany and other euro area countries. The ECB will have to tread carefully as it assesses the economic outlook. The spike in Covid in Germany and other eurozone countries could undermine the tenuous recovery, while at the same time inflation is at its highest level since 2008 and the ECB may have to reconsider its dovish policy in order to contain inflation. 1.1201 is a weak support line. This is followed by support at 1.1118 There is resistance at 1.1415 and 1.1546
by OANDA
EURCHF on its way to ATL1. Be aware that the SNB (Swiss National Bank) had set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 CHF per EUR for some years to keep Switzerlands economy in place, because we rely on exports. 2. This synthetically set level can be seen in the period from 2012-2013 where the price basically did nothing for weeks and was just kept alive at that rate 3. On 15.01.2015 this synthetic minimum price was abolished and the price dumped instantly to under the equilibrium, even to 0.96 EUR per CHF. Historical moment! 4. Notice the bearish retest in 2018, what a beautiful rejection there at the last support from 2015. 5. Around start of the pandemic in march 2020 we had a bullish retest of support at bullish weekly OB indicated by the "tick" in green. 6. At the moment we broke this support and I am expecting another break and retest of this 3-month support @ 1.0418. 7. Last but not least, there is a big liquidity pool resting around the sell stops at 1.0234 , above and below. Probably will act as a magnet for price action and a big stop hunt happening there. CONCLUSION: --> EUR is at the brink of doom here, holding at the last support in its entire history to the Swiss Franc. --> the narrative behind the weakness of EUR is the non-stop-printing of new money during the pandemic caused by the ECB --> add the relatively stable condition of the swiss economy regarding the rest of europe into the mix, and you have enough reasons to sell your EUR to CHF As a swiss-based trader, wanted to have a look at my personal exchange rate for buying things abroad or taking bigger investments like land and real estate in cheaper european countries. Applying some fundamental knowledge here, but mostly the chart explains itself with its price action. Hope this chart gives some clarification and insight!
Short
by coinnection
5
EURUSD: Path to 1.11700 clear as INFLATION Dominates the marketsLast week's push in the USD strength led the EURUSD to breach 1.15000 crucial monthly support. As things stand, its not looking good for EUR on both technical and fundamental point of view. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS After the weekly candle closed convincingly below 1.15000 crucial monthly support, the path to the next low at 1.11700 remains clear and with near zero obstacles. The descending channel might likely act as a guide/pathway to 1.11700 and the weekly 50 EMA would likely act as a strong dynamic resistance in assisting the EURO falling towards it. Have a look at the main chart to get a clear picture of the technical analysis behind this analysis FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS What caused the breach of 1.15000 support? well the US inflation report last week very much did the job single handedly. Furthermore, the divergence in tightening monetary policy between FED and ECB remains quite distant. This would likely make it easier for the EURUSD to fall further. All in all, the EUR is likely to suffer more and more! The pathway to 1.11700 remains clear with least obstacles, thus making it likely to HIT in the coming weeks.
Short
by FX618Analysis
2
Euro dips to 3-week low as Fed trimsThe euro is down considerably in Thursday trade. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1550, down 0.53%. Earlier in the day, the euro fell to 1.1528, its lowest level since October 13th. There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve meeting, as policy makers trimmed the QE programme by 15 billion dollars/month. The move was nonetheless highly significant, as it marks the first tightening in policy since QE was introduced as a response to the economic downturn in early 2020 due to the Covid pandemic. Although the move was communicated to the markets in advance, it was unclear as to how much the Fed would trim, and an amount other than 15 billion dollars could have shaken up the US dollar. The Fed's move was aptly described as a 'dovish taper', in that the Fed continues to maintain a dovish stance as far as future rate hikes and inflation. Fed Chair Powell said after the meeting that the bank would remain patient and wait until the job market was stronger before raising rates, emphasising that the Fed would encourage job growth through low rates. As for inflation, Powell stuck to his well-worn script that the current bout of high inflation is "expected to be transitory" and will ease lower. Powell appears to be odds with the markets, which are far more hawkish and have priced in several rate hikes for 2022. Inflation has been running at 4% over the past five months (double the Fed's target) and it's becoming a stretch to argue that this is a transitory trend, with no sign that inflation will cool anytime soon. What is interesting is that other major central banks are also preaching patience and arguing that high inflation is transitory. Earlier today, the BoE surprised the markets by maintaining rates; the BoE had signalled that it would raise rates in order to contain inflation. However, the BoE echoed the Fed when it stated today that the factors causing high inflation were transient and that it expected inflation to ease in several months. The ECB is also singing from the same hymn sheet - the bank has projected that inflation will be "subdued" in the medium term, and earlier in the week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the bank had no plans to raise rates in 2022. There are resistance lines at 1.1658 and 1.1754 1.1501 is providing support. This line has held since July, but was under pressure earlier in the day. Below, there is support at 1.1440
by OANDA