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Euro dips to 3-week low as Fed trimsThe euro is down considerably in Thursday trade. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1550, down 0.53%. Earlier in the day, the euro fell to 1.1528, its lowest level since October 13th. There were no surprises from the Federal Reserve meeting, as policy makers trimmed the QE programme by 15 billion dollars/month. The move was nonetheless highly significant, as it marks the first tightening in policy since QE was introduced as a response to the economic downturn in early 2020 due to the Covid pandemic. Although the move was communicated to the markets in advance, it was unclear as to how much the Fed would trim, and an amount other than 15 billion dollars could have shaken up the US dollar. The Fed's move was aptly described as a 'dovish taper', in that the Fed continues to maintain a dovish stance as far as future rate hikes and inflation. Fed Chair Powell said after the meeting that the bank would remain patient and wait until the job market was stronger before raising rates, emphasising that the Fed would encourage job growth through low rates. As for inflation, Powell stuck to his well-worn script that the current bout of high inflation is "expected to be transitory" and will ease lower. Powell appears to be odds with the markets, which are far more hawkish and have priced in several rate hikes for 2022. Inflation has been running at 4% over the past five months (double the Fed's target) and it's becoming a stretch to argue that this is a transitory trend, with no sign that inflation will cool anytime soon. What is interesting is that other major central banks are also preaching patience and arguing that high inflation is transitory. Earlier today, the BoE surprised the markets by maintaining rates; the BoE had signalled that it would raise rates in order to contain inflation. However, the BoE echoed the Fed when it stated today that the factors causing high inflation were transient and that it expected inflation to ease in several months. The ECB is also singing from the same hymn sheet - the bank has projected that inflation will be "subdued" in the medium term, and earlier in the week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the bank had no plans to raise rates in 2022. There are resistance lines at 1.1658 and 1.1754 1.1501 is providing support. This line has held since July, but was under pressure earlier in the day. Below, there is support at 1.1440
by OANDA
EURUSD MIGHT CLIMB HIGHER IF THIS CHANNEL IS BREACHED!Currently EURUSD is confined into a nice clear descending channel. However as the price approaches crucial 1.15000 monthly support, the RSI is indicating positive divergence. If the daily candle clears the descending channel and D EMA, we could expect this pair to climb towards it next resistance of 1.19000. THIS JUST REPRESENTS MY ANALYSIS ON THIS PAIR AND ITS NOT A TRADE SIGNAL. I HAVE MANY PAIRS THAT I MONITOR AND ALL OF MY TRADES ARE ON W, D , 4H TIMEFRAME (SWING TRADES). ITS NOT POSSIBLE TO POST ALL OF MY ANALYSIS HERE, HOWEVER I POST TRADE SIGNALS WHEN THE CRITERIA IS MET ON THE FX PAIRS I MONITOR. FOLLOW & LIKE TO RECEIVE FREE FX SWING TRADE SIGNALS CHEERS.
Long
by FX618Analysis
EUR/USD - Edging Lower into the Fed MeetingPrice action at the back end of last week in EURUSD was chaotic to say the least. From Christine Lagarde putting across a dovish case for the central bank which the market completely disregarded to the dollar soaring on Friday on the back of a surprise spike in the employment cost index - an inflationary signal - we certainly saw plenty of action that we now have to make some sense of. At times like this, technical levels can often take a backseat as these economic events bring a significant element of unpredictability, as we saw. Now that the dust has settled, where do we find ourselves? For one, we're back inside the descending channel and the breakout that we saw on Thursday is barely relevant. It failed around a descending trend line just above the channel but that may not have been the case, if not for the data on Friday. What matters is what comes next. And what we're seeing currently is the rally back into the top of the channel losing momentum, which suggests another breakout may be a struggle. So the rebound off the mid-point of the channel may prove to be temporary support. The top of the channel coincides also with the bottom of the 55/89-period SMA bands on both the daily and 4-hour chart, which would suggest we're still in a bearish phase for the pair. The next test below is once again the October lows around 1.1524, where it failed to push below late last week. The fact it held up above here suggests there's still support for the pair but that may diminish if we continue to see it tested. Ultimately, the Fed may hold all the cards. A hawkish announcement tomorrow could see the dollar come back into favour and those lows tested strongly. No mention of potential hikes next year and we could see the upper end of the channel being tested again.
by OANDA
1
USD Quickly Lost Ground To Major Trading PartnersAs of writing, the DXY is trading at 93.355, down by 0.50% on Thursday trading. GDP growth in the US may be contributing to this 4-week low in the dollar index. GDP growth missed expectations for Q3 2021, reporting in at 2.0% rather than the expected 2.7%. Q3’s GDP growth represents the lowest value reported for this data point since the US began to recover from the worst of the pandemic. Supply constraints have been pointed out as one of the major causes for the GDP growth miss, as reported by Fannie Mae earlier in the month. Fannie Mae expects the constraints to continue for another 12 months, although weakening in intensity as time passes. USD suffers greatest loss against the EUR The USD has lost the most ground against the EUR in the past 24 hours. EURUSD is trading at 1.16831 at the time of writing, up by 0.72% and a one month high for the pair. The cause of the EUR's strength: The public address by the Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank (ECB), playing down any fears of inflation. While Inflation in the Eurozone is at a 13-year high (3.4%), Lagarde and her ECB associates are not ready to drop the notion that inflation is transitory. The ECB want to see inflation above 2% over the medium term before considering rate hikes or taking a more hawkish tone. The ECB believes that inflation in the Eurozone has been driven chiefly by supply bottlenecks and energy prices. It could be some time before investors see any change in the dovish stance of the ECB. Supply constraints are expected to last for a great deal of time, as noted above, while energy prices are yet to show any sign of abatement. The Biden administration has asked energy producers to lift production to help drop the cost of energy. But the request is falling on deaf ears. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at US $83.04 per barrel, while Brent is trading at US $84.39 per barrel. Both Oil instruments are trading at multi-year highs. The price of Natural Gas does swing widely day-to-day. A 7% swing either way over a day’s trading is not uncommon. Yet, Natural Gas is still trading at US $5.732/MMBtu, more than double the price at the beginning of 2021.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsEUR – The single currency strengthened on Thursday after the ECB’s October meeting failed to push back against rising expectations for the central bank to begin tightening policy in 2022. Reuters noted that ECB President Lagarde’s comments in the central bank’s press conference were not forceful in reaffirming the ECB’s dovish stance. Hence, the lack of dovish rhetoric and ongoing concerns over rising inflation was enough to keep bets for rate hikes in 2022 on the table, supporting EUR.
by thunderpips
1
Tidying Up...Flows into USD continue with yields unlocking potential for flattening. The latest breakdown in euro is calling for a reassessment across all charts, did not expect the pullback to come this far, so we will go through the process over the coming sessions. An interesting environment, we are in the middle of summer with thin liquidity and technical discipline needed. ↳ Eyeballing 1.162x for strong support, Nov-20 lows should be enough to lean on. ↳ Looking at the macro charts below, the price action is supportive and we should see 1.161/1.162 comfortable hold a breach below the 1.15 barrier will imply the LT base is not yet complete and unlock a test of parity (not expected). ↳ Inflation can provide the momentum above 1.185x (30th July highs) and indicate we are already on track for the 1.21 and 1.25 initial targets in this next wave.
Long
by ridethepig
38
EURUSD Short-lived pop will fall - ECB Mesure are still on HoldHello Traders Here is a new SELL Scenario, a short lived pop, ECB Mesure are still on hold, Taper discussion in November will influence USD soon. For a longer term, it can reach 1.15 and 1.14 for a quarter if you are patient. 💹EUR/USD SELL STOP ✅ Entry @1.17000 or below (17300 is the best but not sure it will reach this point) ✅TP-1# 1.16800 ✅TP-2# 1.16600 ✅TP-3# 1.1630 ✅SL# 1.17800 JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
Short
by UnknownUnicorn20731539
1
#EURGBP Upside + Fundamental driversHello Traders! Early rate hike priced in for the pound, that may not come as soon as expected. So we can see an overstretched position also if we see more vix upside along risk off sentiment that supports the trade as well. Euro (EUR) Fundamental Bias: Weak Bearish Primary Driver: 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB Rationale: The ECB provided an overall balanced policy decision at their September meeting. They chose to slow the pace of asset purchases, explaining that the current levels of financial conditions allow them to buy assets under PEPP at 'moderately' slower pace compared to the pace of purchases seen in Q" and Q+. However, as expected, the bank made it vers clear that the move was not tapering it was merely a recalibration of purchases (when you plan to perform less QE that's technically tapering but who's counting).The bank raised their inflation projections for 2021, 2022 and 2023, and even though the 2021 projections were arquablynot as high as the markets were hoping for, the more important me-term projections still showed inflation moving to well below the banks 2% target to affirm the transitory view of recent price measures. All in all, the decision was broadly balanced and as a result failed to inspire any meaningful reaction in European assets. For this weeks upcoming meeting, the markets are not expecting any fresh changes as all eyes are on the December meeting. Primary driver: 2. The country's economic developments Rationale: Earlier issues with vaccinations and lockdowns at the start of 2021 weighted on eu growth prospects, with growth differentials against the US an UK still quite wide, despite some of the recent some of the recent strong economic data. Despite the hit to growth, the recent activity data suggests the hit to the economy from recent lockdowns weren't as bad as feared. That alone isn't enough to change the current bearish outlook. Another factor to watch is the discussions among European states to allow the purchase of green bonds not to count against budget deficits. Such a decision could change the fiscal picture drastically and we would expect that to be a big positive for the EUR and European equities. However, in the short-term, EUR traders will be firmly fixing their eyes on the ECB, which is expected to be a bit of an uneventful meeting. Primary driver: 3. Funding Characteristics Rationale: An interesting driver for the euro is its funding characteristic exhibited during risk off sentiment. AS a low yielder ( like jpy and CHF ), the European has been an interesting choice among the carry trades, especially during 2019 it was favoured against high yield EM currencies, and part of the big upside in the euro during the initial risk off scare in march 2020 was attributed to an unwind of large carry trades. recently we've seen the euro exhibit some resilience during jittery risk tones despite usd strength. As more central banks start normalising policy, the euro's attractiveness as a funding current ycould keep it pressure din the med term vs higher yielders. However, it could spark risk off upside if some of those trades unwind. That doesn't make our a safe haven, but as rates climb globally it can become more sensitive to risk. Primary driver: 4. CFTC Analysis Rationale: Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +6291 with a net non-commercial position of -12107. The stretched positioning for large speculators we noted the past few weeks have continued to ease, but net shorts are sizable for leveraged funds. Thus, we would not be interested in chasing the euro lower from here without seeing a more mean reversion first. Great British Pound (GBP) Fundamental Bias: Bullish Primary driver: 1. Monetary policy outlook for the BOE Rationale: The SEP policy meeting from the BoE saw money markets rushing to price in a much faster and more aggressive policy path than previously expected. Even though this course falls in line with our bullish bias for the pound, we do think the market is a bit too aggressive too quick right now. The bank did explain that they now see inflation above 4% by Q4 of this year, and the possibility of more sticky inflation was the key reasons why we saw a 7-2 QE vote split with Saunders and Ramsden both dissenting to cut purchases. However its important to note that the remaining 7 members still see inflation as transitory, and the fact that this expect CPI above 4% means any prints that don't come close to that poses downside risks. Furthermore, even though the bank said their expectations of modest tightening has strengthened. the admitted that lots of uncertainties remain.A big one of these is the labour market, where even though the number of furloughed staff have decreased, that decrease has materially slowed from august which poses more uncertainty for the labour market. Thus, even though our bias remains unchanged, and we see the bank lifting rates Q', we do think the over optimistic moves in the money markets poses sort term headwinds. Primary driver: 2. The country's economic developments Rationale: The successful vaccination program that allowed the UK to open faster and sooner than peers provided a favourable environment for sterling and the strength of the economic recovery has meant solid growth differentials favouring GBP. However, a lot of these positives are arguably the same outperformance we saw earlier. With out above comments about money markets, it also means that there is now more risk to the downside surprises then was the case a few months ago. Primary Driver: 3. Political developments Rationale: Even though a Brexit deal was reached last year, some issues like the Northern Ireland protocol remains, and with neither side willing to budge it seems like these issues. On Friday, the EU ramped up some political posturing with report that said they are mulling róterminating the BREXIT deal if the UK triggers Article 16. For now, these are just threads, but with rates markets still very aggressively priced any further escalation could increase the odds of seeing repricing downside in the GBP, so one to keep on the radar after Friday. Primary Driver: 4. CFTC Analysis Rationale latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +13594 with a net non commercial position of + 1615. Sterling have been a very impressive rebound from recent lows as market s reacted positively to recent BOE comments which sparked additional downside in SONIA futures, which are now fully priced for 15-basis point hike in Q! and about three 25-basis point hikes by end 2022. Even though GBP has enjoyed upside on the tightening expectations, the reasons why markets are pricing ia steeper rate path is out of fear of inflation and not due to a more positive economic outlook, which as we highlighted above does pose headwind for the Pound in the weeks ahead if growth of inflation data surprise lower in the weeks ahead. Have a great week! Vitez
Long
by Vitezabraham
4
$EURCHF: Bottomed here...I think we have a decent trade with something between 3:1 and 5.28:1 RR here. I'm long here since the hourly is bottoming, and daily charts hit long term support, while being close to exhausting the last daily down trend signal that was active. Technically, this is a very strong mean reversion possibility and we have the backing of the Swiss National Bank which could stop the decline intervening in the market around here... Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
It’s Recalibration, Not Tapering (10 September 2021)The ECB’s decision. The European Central Bank (ECB) held its interest rates unchanged during their monetary policy meeting yesterday. Main Refinancing Operations Rate: 0.00% Marginal Lending Facility Rate: 0.25% Deposit Facility Rate: -0.50% The size of its quantitative easing (QE) programmes remains unchanged as well. Asset Purchase Programme (APP): €20 billion per month Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP): €1,850 billion in total On top of that, the central bank has opted for a reduction of pace in its assets purchase under the PEPP but did not provide more details on the amount. At the moment, €80 billion worth of assets are being purchased on a monthly basis. It’s recalibration, not tapering. Just when the market is trying to figure out from the monetary policy statement if the ECB has just carried out a QE tapering, the central bank’s President Christine Lagarde elucidated that the reduction of the pace is not a tapering, but a recalibration. The ECB’s decision “is to calibrate the pace of our purchases in order to deliver on our goal of favourable financing conditions”. President Lagarde’s comment left the market wondering how significant is such an action carried out by the central bank going to have on QE if it is not considered as tapering. As a result, the euro was moving in an unclear direction. Positive inflation projections. Although the ECB’s action is likely going to spark some discussions over its ambiguity, one thing we know for sure is that the central bank is feeling confident in the recent rise in inflation in the eurozone. As released in the quarterly projection materials, overall inflation forecasts have been revised upwards. Inflation Projections: 2021: revised upwards from previous 1.9% to 2.2% 2022: revised upwards from previous 1.5% to 1.7% 2023: revised upwards from previous 1.4% to 1.5%
by GH_Lee
EURUSD before ECBIf you have been following our daily analysis, you should know that we expected a trend reversal on the hourly chart from 1,1900 We are currently in the next key moment for EURUSD. There is less than an hour left before the interest rate decision from the ECB, and that will be followed with a press conference 45 minutes later! That will lead to big fluctuations and it will be the moment in which price action will either confirm or reject a downside move on EURUSD. We're expecting a drop towards the first support at 1,1760 and then possibly 1,1680. Of course we could see a move in the opposite direction at first and that's why our stops should be above 1,1900! Entries before the news are quite risky!
Short
by ForexTrendline
20
EURUSD: waiting for an extension of the pullbackHi Guys, the idea on this pair is to wait for an extension of the pullback to exceed 1.19088. This move was enbedded in the divergence between sentiment and price lows and stopped at July H in conjunction with NFP release on Sept.3rd. In this occasion the indicator didn't stop and exceeded it's July H forming a divergence also between latest two tops. Price: NFP H = July H RSI: NFP H > July H Today price has been hit by some near-term profit taking. However I still look for an extension above July H running possibly into 200SMA at 1.20029. To enter the market I am waiting for a bullish set up on LTF that may boost an attack to July H. Today's German Factory Order should be supportive for the EUR and also for EU GDP data to be released tomorrow. Important ECB meeting will take place on Thursday. The expected move may not take place before ECB meeting is finished. Be ready to take action only when right set up favours your objectives. If you have any queries please do not hesitate to ask. Good luck everybody! Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Before you decide to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully assess your investment objectives, experience, financial possibilities and willingness to take risks. There is a possibility that you will lose your initial investment partially or completely. Therefore, you should not invest any funds that you cannot afford to completely lose in a worst-case scenario. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and contact an independent financial advisor in case of doubt.
by cozzamara
EURUSD Cooling OffEURUSD pushed ahead last week due to a poor U.S. jobs report. The problem with the jobs report is the Fed has to choose between unemployment or inflation to control. Since inflation has cooled off last month and the Fed insists its transitory, so will they reduce the pace of tapering or even delay it's announcement? This gives USD weakness. The issue this week is the ECB will not announce tapering on Thursday and the long positions on EURUSD from speculators may be closed or reigned in before then. With that in mind and the resistance to the left from a while back, we should see a retracement...
Short
by UnknownUnicorn15362357
EURUSD The movement after the breakoutHello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ on Aug 31 I talked about the EURUSD market and how it's moving Bullish after a Breakout in the trend, Today we see that the market moved exactly like we thought it would. EUR/USD is trading flat in a quiet start to the week with North America out for the day on holiday. The EUR/USD pair rallied higher all of last week to reach the end of July high at 1.1909. and now trending near the resistance line at 1.19010. Possible Scenarios for the market movement for the new period of time : Scenario 1: The market is nearing the resistance zone between 1.1889 - 1.1892 after a great week of Bullish movement the Bulls does seem to have enough power to breakout that zone and if that happens we will be seeing the price going up near the June Resistance zone at 1.19312 Scenario 2: when the market reaches the resistance zone between 1.1889 - 1.1892 a battle will happen between the Bears and Bulls, IF the Bears were able to gain control back over the market then the price will drop down and it will go near the first support zone 1.18172 where the Bulls will gather whatever power they may have to gain Bullish momentum and control the trend and push it back up. Technical indicators show : The market is above the 5 10 20 50 MA and EMA, But still below the 100 and 200 MA & EMA ( this indicates that the short-term trend for now seems Bullish but for the long-term trend of the market is still looking Bearish). The MACD is above the 0 line showing that the market is in a Bullish state with a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line. The RSI is at 60.00 showing great strength in the market with no divergences found on the daily chart yet. Daily Support & Resistance points : support Resistance 1) 1.1881 1) 1.1889 2) 1.1876 2) 1.1892 3) 1.1874 3) 1.1897 Fundamental point of view : As the market shifts its attention to the ECB meeting on Thursday, ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ is an apt strategy that springs to mind, according to economists at Société Générale. The EUR/USD pair should head higher towards the 1.1910 resistance on a hawkish message from the European Central Bank. The ECB ( European Central Bank) hawks are spooked by the recent rising inflation numbers but the doves are firmly in control right now and so the policy is likely to remain loose for the time being. However, certain members of the central banks are less dovish, including Governing Council member Francois Villeroy who said the bank should consider more favorable financing conditions in the eurozone in deciding on the pace of PEPP this week. According to Fxstreet This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
Long
by GabiDahduh
The tale of a 1001 golden bullish pipsWelcome back traders to the last month of Q3. It was quiet from my side for some time, due to the summer holiday break and major risk events on the horizon. A lot has changed in a few weeks. The market was pricing in tapering and interest rate hikes by the FED in early June, but the sentiment changed quickly after a disappointing speech for dollar bulls by Powell during Jackson Hole. The NFP came in very disappointing last Friday, and the stagflation drums are beating again. Jackson Hole So alot hinged on Powell's speech during Jackson Hole. As always Powell was very vague, however he did mention a couple of interesting things; 1. They will start tapering this year 🔹Not clear how much, could be $1 billion or $10 billion per month 🔹Not clear when (September, November or December FOMC-meeting) 🔹Since the August NFP missed its forecast and came in lower than 500k, it is unlikely they will announce tapering at the September FOMC-meeting 🔹Leaves us with the November and December FOMC-meeting as possible tapering announcement moments 2. No interest hikes for the foreseeable future 🔹Cheap money in abundance for the foreseeable future Yes, there will be tapering in place this year (most probably December), however the FED will keep drowning the market with cheap money in the meantime. Take note that tapering doesn't mean that they will take money out of the market, however it means they will slow down the money injections into the market. Reading between the lines it means the FED balance sheet will keep growing, however at a slower pace (currently $8.4 trillion). Eurozone The shift of attention of traders moves to the next world reserve currency. With the Eurozone economy growing at its fastest pace on record and inflation set to rise further, pressure on the ECB to taper its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) is building. It is widely expected by economists and analysts that there will be an announcement during the ECB-meeting coming Thursday to start taper its PEPP-program in December. This will obviously be bullish for EURUSD and have bearish implications for gold (somewhat) and the dollar. Technicals DXY Although I expected the dollar would break out after the August NFP, it did not so. Currently it seems the dollar bears have been building a bearflag on the daily chart and the third test of 89.5 might do the trick for a breakdown towards 88 and lower. Gold Gold made some good bullish moves since the flashcrash of early August and we are back above 1800, however it failed again to close the day and week above the 0.382 fibo retracement level ($1829). This implies bullish weakness and I am expecting a bearish retracement first towards the 1770-1790 zone and bullish continuation towards 1875, 1925 & 1960 afterwards due to dollar weakness to complete an inverse H&S pattern. A solid break of 1835 on the daily chart will make things extremely bullish in goldyland, as this will confirm the triple bottom and this will invite bigger bulls to the arena. EURUSD On EURUSD I am very bullish due to the Bullish Wolfe Wave on the weekly chart (send me a DM if you see it too) and the touch of the bearish trendline that broke July 2020 and turned bullish support. I am expecting to see the break of 1.235 before end of year with endtarget 1.28 (Q1 2022). Indices I am still bullish on indices as long as the Dow Jones (US30) hasn't touched the 36.6k mark and I am expecting one more blow-off top before we see a market correction of at least 20% (if not more). However I am not buying and I do not advise to buy all time highs to anyone. Rather I would like to stay put and wait for my projected reversal point to sell the equities market to the highest bidder. Beautiful days ahead with a lot of pips to be collected. Love and hugs, Cesaro 😎
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CesaroPelucci
2