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'Risk-off' knocking at the moonlit door; Long Gold📌 After completing a second test of 1.20xx, profit taking entered into play with the fix yesterday. Dollar is clearly restrained by Fed and WH prevention and then by a later of risk hedge clearings . Before I present the usual schematic representation, we should look at just how difficult the environment is to play correctly with timing these reversals. As soon as a divergence is formed, we have the choice of a shallow or deep retrace in EURUSD towards 1.16xx/1.17xx or a sharp leg higher in Gold towards $1,970 and $2,100. Gold bears must also bear in mind risk-off flows are once again knocking at the door via Iran after clearing the vaccine newsflow. I have been fielding questions around stimulus for a while, it is easy to lean on CB's but the correlation is breaking and exactly on time when this transfer should happen. Hard to understand; a better way to put this is look for a large correction in Gold after clearing the board to set about some painstaking defence for the next round of risk-off flows cooking. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming 👍 or 👎
by ridethepig
8
EURUSD Test of strong supply zone, psycho level, shorts in playHello, we are currently testing the so-called the "line in the sand" for both buyers and sellers. Defending the current levels will allow sellers to retest at least 1.1500 / 1450. The breakout through 1,20 ( based on daily close ) opens : 1.2160 / 2250 and 1.2500. As long as under 1.20, and everyone sells the dollar, the counter move can be a kind of solution, especially since there are technically grounds for it ... Short 1.1970/2010 Stop above 1.2050 Purpose 1.1500 / 1450 Good luck
Short
by ForexClub_pl
1
ridethepig | ECB Market Commentary 2020.10.29📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.29 At a time when Lagarde ought to play the “leading” role, something similar to the pacemaker in the Tour de France, and not kick the can with PEPP while reading newspapers about what has happened from her home. I am personally expecting nothingness from the ECB and instead to tee up more QE in December which will be continuation of the bearish euro story. Whether we like it or not the expectations were already stacked towards one side for a muted ECB today kicking the can till December. My sense is that with lockdowns, U.S elections and Brexit hurdles still to clear, waves of supply will keep coming and the pending test of 1.153x is still the most likely outcome. Short-term looking to take the rest of my shorts off at 1.160x, while Medium-term I prefer to be long the single currency and will look to load from cheaper levels in the 1.15/1.14 range. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | DAX into the elections and beyond📍 DAX gaining tempo The previous 2020 macro map, outdated as it may be, contains the overarching manoeuvre which we can now describe as a compounding play. It is as follows: my models started to pick up on the alarm bells towards the back-end of last year, and hinted of DAX making revisiting 10,000. The compounding is going to be of great importance, when we realise the 5th wave is still (yet) to complete. By the time private clients began to call outguessing the Green / CDU coalition and 'Green New Deal' it was too late... and there now occurs two dominos: if DAX retests the lows in a panic move, and sellers force through a retest of the lows for a second time and then the new economic cycle can begin in 2021/2022. Moreover, for those trading the single currency, we are going to get major updates here as we enter into 2021 and digital currencies come through the backdoor. This fact paves the way for perpetual bonds which are on the way to act as a trojan horse for government defaults is of utmost concern. The brutal bear market rally in the euro is not going to help german equities over the coming months, and the ECB knows it which is why they are signalling distress signals louder than usual.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Buy EURGBP expecting GBP outflows📝 EURGBP While the single currency block continues to work together on Covid the UK is as divided as ever, from Scottish independence to the North / South divide. Faster Macro data has started to tick back down in Europe and the UK. We are going to see a decline in activity once more into November and with Brexit still to come this will hurt the UK more in the immediate term. On the technical side, the break of 0.915x is encouraging for bulls and opens up in the near-term a test of 0.927x. I would also like to leave core positions running for the inevitable test of parity. Keep a close eye on 1.294x for those in GBPUSD. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EURUSD Strategy Notes 📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.22 A possible reversal between sellers and buyers taking profits After Eurobonds Positional Play , buyers might consider the exchanging manoeuvre from 1.20xx a good level to take profits since these levels are dangerous waters for those wanting to add longs. However, the recapture of 1.18xx is apparent, and noteworthy of how RM accounts have driven the entire leg higher from 1.16xx. Sellers simply play a protection of resistance here at 1.185/1.186 and have a chance to win control as there will be unaware buyers still loading here at these levels thinking a blue wave is positive for markets. To the downside, a test of the 1.153x is still pending and clearly visible that it is worthy of mention. Remember, whenever retail sees that a position is not working initially, they will aim to liquidate and put the remaining capital into a better swing. Unfortunately, all too often, tactics are used to trigger the liquidation and can become very unpleasant. I mea the sort of situation we are seeing around U.S. elections is threatening for another sharp increase in volatility and we have covid to put the cherry on top.
Short
by ridethepig
11
$EURUSD - NO FLASEBREAK SIGNAL BUT CLASSIC CONSOLIDATIONEURUSD didn't make a daily close below the trendline to produce a false break signal, and ojectively it has in fact signals some more. Looking at the head and shoulder topping structure while assuming the September top is in, this is a classic consolidation pattern of tight trading ranges forming a harmonious ABC move, so and I'd expect a solid turn at next key levels. 1.1880 is a closed eyes sell imo with room to average up above. In small already but may shed some tomorrow and sell better levels. Fundamentally, latest PMI's showing improvement in the manufacturing but services rebound has been very slow. Covid is ravaging through Europe, UK and USA and others at staggering rates of daily new cases and there will be another demand shock to global markets at the rate this is going. Governments will have no choice but to impose stricter measures on social distancing, mask wearing etc and this will have a lasting effect on the services sectors, which for many economies is by far the largest contributor to a countries GDP. The ripple out effects can be far-reaching and and governments and ECB will have to provide more economic relief and stimlus. Whilst the Federal Reserve is likely to sit on their hands and hoping inflation would just run hot from here, the ECB is already faced with low inflation pressures and the sudden EUR strength will not help them be any closer to creating some moderate inflation. I think this gives them room to take actions that will slightly weaken the EUR whilst providing more monetary support to fiscal measures.
Short
by doejistar
ridethepig | French Equities into the election and beyond📌 An update to the map for French Equities By now we should have all positioned our portfolios defensively and be sure that in doing so by covering we are ensuring that our opponent will not try a steam roller! Think back to the diagram and follow the flows.... We have a typical position here in which French Equities can be sold actively. Thanks to the economic slowdown, covid and election risk, we can quickly bring about the attack of our targets. Sellers have already completed the difficult part of the move, but we must not go to sleep on the job! For the sake of the discussions here, encourage all those who are trading the moves down in equities to start sharing their charts and views in the comments and we can further the conversation and developments.
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
4
EURUSD - Election Map📅 October 18th EURUSD - Election Map Eurobonds positional play The manoeuvre chosen by Europe to consolidate the debt cannot be criticised. It was inevitable since the Maastricht Treaty that in order to keep the currency alive they would eventually need to obtain with it 'federalised debt' in order to compete in the Premier league with US and China. Once Covid forced Merkel et al to 'bend the knee', euro buyers obtained control on the break of 1.09x and played an impulsive move towards 1.20x. Of course this move was not without venom and pressed against the ECB. An impulsive move, but one with a deeper meaning. Markets and bookies have completely miss-priced (i) the odds of a dem clean sweep being +ve for risk assets and (ii) spillovers associated with further lockdowns from covid chapter II. In many ways Covid has revealed how far the West has fallen behind in some places. However, no matter how healthy or greener the grass may look on the other side to some right now, a Biden victory will still face THE SAME CHALLENGES . Dems are throwing everything into winning and forgetting that even if they inherit the office they have done so at the cost of huge promises to public sector unions and etc which is a real problem for them. Expecting EURUSD to come under a lot of stress in order to protect from increased election risk, lockdowns and contractions in globalisation / capital formations in the immediate term. For those only interested in adding longs, this 1.15/1.14 area is where we should be hell-bent on loading full sized positions. To the topside invalidation of the 'B' in this ABC corrective swing will come from a break above 1.183x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
8
The Euro is GOING TO ZERO! Bulls will be wiped out!You can skip the intro if you don't want to read a rant. ******************************************* Why are they all so lazy??? These "traders", especially those that sell signals. They drop a coinflip idea with 3 lines and that's it. Oh and people love it. Most of their ideas are so bad and those not terrible are just statistical normal distribution. All these day & swing gamblers have such contempt for people working real jobs, producing something. It is amazing. The casino ta gamblers are coming to get rich quick AND to be lazy. They expect this to be EASIER???? Really? Not HARDER?!! EASIER??!!! No wonder cringe speeches going "you make money sitting on your hands" have so much success "don't over analyse and over trade you make money being patient letting it work for you". Oh you mean "work as little as possible be as lazy as can be sit on your hands". How to get gullible clients. It's so obvious they are telling them what they want to hear... Hey institutions pay hundreds of ivy league analysts with full time 9 to 5 jobs to do research but you know, they are just #emotional that's why. They have analysis paralysis. All you need is the right automated signal system 😆 I really wish someone could answer me. Why do they hate working so much? Why do they hate thinking so much? What is going on in their so wonderful lives? What are the amazing things they are doing that are so much better? There is few people outside. What are they doing? Please, I really want to know what wonderful life I am missing out on! If I look in houses will I see zombies standing still in a trance? That's it right? This really breaks the simulation immersion for me. Bad realism. Damn I could become anything I wanted and I just became a gambler. ******************************************* Idea starts here: The Euros try their hardest to keep the euro underpriced compared to the dollar. It will be harder for them now that the usd is getting bazook'ad & does not have higher rates than the euro. What do I look for in those operations that I started getting into in early 2020 as a secondary strategy? I'd say I am a systematic trader but sort of in between systematic and discretionary. Every setup is different... Some of what I look for (only part of it): 1- Price action: I get in early but I don't want to get in too early (unless I go for a reversal which is an entirely different thing and they never turn into trends and I rarely stay in long) ==> Is it too early? Are there lower highs and lows? Is there momentum behind it? No, yes, yes. It is going. 2- Technical analysis: Is the previous trend over? Are we in a pullback? New trend down according to TA. And emm common sense. 3- PA, TA, guessing the order book without access to it (CME thought), FA: Where is the next liquidity area, what target can I expect? It has a long way to go. I entered with a stop loss smaller than retail day traders, and my target is weeks ATR away. I hope it won't retrace much, but there is not much reason for it to go back up. That I know of. I am letting it retrace by several times my risk because I really want to stay in. I really hope I get a big winner out of it. It's not that different after all. Just because the chart pattern looks similar does not mean there is a no brain crystal ball method of magically spotting every currency or stock that will be the next big winner. You have a 20 hole punchcard... This takes alot of research. Not just eyeballing a 1 hour chart and flipping a coin with your scammy ea. It cracks me up tbh. Not only do they do 0 research but they won't even bother taking 5 minutes to check the daily, weekly, monthly charts? 😂 When you are a legit trader you do not need to check the monthly because you know it by heart but they obviously have no clue what it looks like. We are snipers. Not drunk clowns with a machine gun. They will fade away like the previous ones, and the ones before, and the ones even before. We will still be around. Also, back to the EURUSD, we know that euro politicians with the exception of Sweden love to nuke their economies, and look forward to bribe naive scared electors with stimulus. It is so absurd but many believe in it (the covid fear mongering) and those that see it as absurd say nothing because of a type of herd mentality / responsability dilution that is well studied by psychologists. At least I am calling it absurd on the internet so I'm doing something hey? No need to go riot in the street and become a martyr that would be too much. And I only put a mask when I have to. #doingmypart Ridiculous fascist rules are going to continue. Incompetent european administrations are progressively shutting down parts of the economy again. NAH BUT SERIOUSLY I AM IN THE 5TH DIMENSION HERE RIGHT? Am I dreaming? So in conclusion, not that hard for the euro to skyrocket down by a few percentage points, both in undervaluation and in valuation directly.
Short
by MrRenev
6