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Will the ECB reduce the value of the EURO?Eyes are on ECB president Christine Largarde tomorrow to see if she will echo her colleague’s concerns at the bank’s policy meeting on Thursday, as ECB policymakers warn that if the currency keeps appreciating it will weigh on exports, drag down prices and intensify pressure for more monetary stimulus, holding back on the Euros economic recovery. I am not expecting further reduction of interest rates just yet, but instead a firm word that actions will be taken if necessary, which could lead to bearish momentum. Continued upside dollar momentum is also a added factor, with recent risk off sentiment indicating a further shift of assets from equities to currencies So far it seems investors are attempting to price in Largarde attempt at reducing the euro /usd rate, with a break of the flag formation , allowing a great opportunity for a potential short on the re-test with excellent risk reward.
Short
by RaphFX
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.09.16📌 A quick update here for those trading the flows in EURGBP (yes a change of scenery from the cable battlefield). To maintain the uptrend buyers must defend on their outpost. Rightly so, this is a tempting support level to buy as buyers have to prevent the elegant threat from sellers to breakdown and reclaim the 0.90xx handle. In spite of Brexit, the main impact comes on GBP rather than EUR and for those reasons this leg is still being driven from the overarching Pound flows. Another three barrel bluff from Johnson and we are at the mercy to the House of Lords although unlikely they can defend this one. No-deal Brexit looks certain, the cross here can launch to the topside in a +/- 10% move as sterling has to weaken. Adding longs on dips into 0.915x/0.913x for the swing into 0.931x and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EURGBPThe exchanging combination between Euro and British Pound continues: Diagram 1 Here we are dealing with the capture of the lows, when we successfully trapped our opponent at 0.830 live together . All the pound buyers are having to face up to the disappointment that the said Oven ready deal is cheerfully the most damaging attack on the UK economy. In this position, a simple loading on a pullback towards 0.915x will win the swing. Buyers have their eyes on 0.989x as worthy of interest, it would not be completely farfetched to see a test of parity if (when) there is no-deal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EuroThe ECB as a weakness Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play. The position is reached as a touchstone for the fact in the thesis. We have already covered the macro and explained the fundamentals in play so we shall now cover that here today. Instead we shall consider the bear case and understand the conditions in play, namely: (a) the presence of a breakdown (b) a monetary vocal defence from Lagarde which could be directly attacked as weakness in the currency Our swings so far have played out favourably. Although this time the decision is more challenging, the weaknesses Lagarde sent has opened up the downside and sellers can now threaten a retest of support levels at 1.15 - 1.14. Just a threat, the diagonal support breach is toying with the idea and it is quite understandable, indeed the dollar has come along way in such a short period of time and the risks are no longer idiosyncratic to the US as cases sky rocket in Europe. Buyers have shown up but for the time being I am going to bring things closer to home and pull back on the bullish euro view. We are at the edge of the board and a continuation although is technically in play towards 1.225x - 1.250x it will be hard to manoeuvre with a round of risk-off. Combining a pullback and leveraging continuation at 1.14 / 1.15 would be the winning move. Consider selling a breakdown next week or trailing longs very aggressively. Logical analysis concludes that a pullback is in play as there is definitive weakness on the monetary side in Europe. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
EUR/USD Uptrend support line intactHello traders, EUR/USD is trading above an uptrend support line that has been accompanying the pair since mid May, making higher highs and higher lows. It is also worth mentioning that the pair is trading above all its main moving averages. The up trend is supported by slightly hawkish Lagarde's speech last week and dovish FOMC, and that is making the fundamentals between the two currencies narrower than before. Long positions are safe as long as the pair is trading above the medium term up trend support today at 1.1760, and the critical support at 1.1690. Next resistance level/bulls target is at 1.1965 followed by 1.2010. Good luck
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
2
ridethepig | Stoxx 50📌 Eurostoxx 50 is in question here and we have a good illustration of the ABC outpost. The main target 3,489 is still open for a test but a breakdown here will seal it for the year. In a nutshell, this is a chart speculating that we are in the very early days of the "C" leg down. It is the same opening move in play for German Equities, DAX: This leg down in European Equities will be considered painful for the late buyers; the weakness of the real economy is shown via the following charts. Unemployment Claims: US 2's 5's: Sharp speculators are adopting a wait-and-see policy, the fate of the moves in Eurostoxx depends on the range settlement. Sellers breaking through 3,200 will 'protect' the highs and because of the technical damage done, the flows will finally commit towards +/- 2,475. As usual...thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
EShort
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | CAC40📌 A short update on French Equities that are also full of dramatic events. The nature of the down cycle came after the infamous leg we played to the topside and began profit taking. How to spot an early discovery of the flows? The diagram clarifies the relationship between the ending of wave 5 and the beginning of the initial 'A' leg with Covid. This change we played with more weight together in DAX which was pinned at the highs. Here is the brief reminder in DAX: Since we know we are in-between an ABC corrective leg the little inner flows can be played however we want because we know we are protected from the powerful macro direction. Targets: 4,200 and 3,600 before anything else is resolved to the topside would be very useful for trading the next cycle up in 2021/2022. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:CAC40Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | DAX Q2 Macro Chart Buyers of a V shaped recovery constitute a formidable opponent; the purpose of the bounce was not to recover but only to re-balance and rightly so. Of course, retail have another account and while the 11700 highs are holding continue to load thinking everything is roses and business as usual... You see, a sound position has at least 5 waves in the impulse and a double ABC in the retrace. In such circumstances, the short-circuit and its remaining furloughed businesses hardly make a very bullish impression. A bit of a hat trick for @ridethepig after such a battle! .. In any case, if sellers claim back the highs and obstruct any breach the end scenario looks rather miserable. Sadly we will have another leg lower in Global Equities, this will turn out to be the sweep that caused depression and forces capitulation from even the most experienced of hands. In spite of the advanced environment, this chart will demonstrate how and where an advance on the wrong side should and will be punished.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
5
EURUSD 10 Sep, 2020 - Volatility Day ahead?So, ECB today. What to expect? Volatility seems is the only guaranteed outcome for today trading expectations. before press conference we face seems 2 scenarios: 1. Fiber trying to get everyone bullish atm aiming for resistance level at 1.1867-1.1881. Expected scenario with slow rise and then fast falling? 2. Market can fall under 1.18-1.1785 and smash down 1.1752 before your can say Mom! Unexpected atm scenario by most of the market participants. after press conference can be whatever you can imagine... :))) Not legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author. Cheers!
by AlpacaBlack
ridethepig | Momentum Gambit with ECB 📌 The best move, since the idea of Eurobonds and an early development of the rally is to continue working against structural dollar weakness. The +/- 200 tick pullback from 1.20xx highs in EURUSD to current levels is an attractive level for us to start adding bullish exposure. As will become clear, buyers are in full control on the macro direction and sharp speculators are playing the euro as a funding currency. The social idiosyncratic problems in the West are not going to be covered here today although are playing a major roll in the election cycle and USD. The way the dollar has completely paralysed Fed is in plain sight for all to see. And now, I ask you; what tolerance will the current administration have for a weaker dollar into the elections versus a weaker stock market? You get my point... an honourable (???) Powell bending the knee to Trump with a typical CBanker desperation move to create artificial weakness in USD and hold stocks is managing to create a wave of problems in Europe. As much as they would like to, there is little chance of ECB intervening at these levels, meaning for trading and speculator purposes we can squeeze and squeeze until they finally cough which wont be for another +10%. We will cover the ECB together in detail although here preparing for a very dismissive Lagarde this week which will reverse any considering intervention. A strong move here would be very useful as we can complete the MT and LT breakout targets from earlier in the year. I am expecting bulls to come out with their trump card, still eyeballing the same 1.25xx targets before year-end and 1.30xx / 1.35xx are on the menu for 2021. What we are learning from this move in the euro is firstly how to distinguish between genuine and false fundamental moves. After clearing targets at 1.20xx it attracted both profit taking and also some early birds looking to outguess a hand from ECB on the currency. For this week, what we are tracking is the deprivation of those looking who jumped the gun to give us energy to move higher. The pullback they have laid over the past week should also be kept in context with the long-term macro view: For the techincal flows, the 1.186x is finally getting attention. But just at that point, it is hard to predict that the radius of ECB volatility expansion wont send us into the opposing camp at 1.170x. Hence the textbook way to play this, is to load on a momentum gambit through 1.186x or load in the market manoeuvre zones. Invalidation for bulls comes below 1.170x as it will unlock 1.15xx. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.08.29📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD. The king continues its march lower. To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct attempt to step against this flow will be compromised while we remain above 1.178x and 1.161x strong pivots with 1.14xx the stronger level on a quarterly basis. An interesting move will be to complete 1.225x and 1.250x this year before consolidating sufficiently. The moral of the story, is stay long EURUSD. We have discussed the fundamental coverage in detail, there are other things which warrant attention from speculators, I can hear you asking, what things are these then? ...Positioning! This next diagram demonstrates how we can advance and capitalise on expectations transitioning to facts. On a very high level the theme here appears, with a holistic view of the macro direction. This resembles a move towards 1.28x and 1.42x as investors make the most of the advantage, and the 'freer manoeuvrability' of the fiscal side. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
20
ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.04.08Commodity currencies reached the 🔑 value levels to load for this final leg down in risk. As mentioned here last week 0.62xx was the level to load in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I also loaded an entire short CAD portfolio with USDCAD testing the 1.395x outguessing a negative outcome tomorrow. In best case scenario we will see a ‘handshake’ which wont be enough to offset this huge demand shock, I will keep an ear on the wires with live coverage resuming as usual from today. I am closely tracking for the final sweep to the lows in Oil, for those following in the previous strategies we are entering into fill or kill territory with the final $15 targets: Monthly For all those wanting to dig deeper and build a basket around short CAD I would recommend unless you know what you are doing to start your positions with a hedge, outguessing the flop tomorrow will trigger a major sell off in the black stuff. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.14EURGBP finding a bid from 0.900x as widely expected since earlier in the month. Here actively adding longs on the pullback for a move towards 0.915x highs. Little Britain are still nowhere near out of the woods yet with the 'oven ready’ Brexit still to come later this year. For those wondering why not Cable? It’s very tough to time a bottom in the dollar with the artificial devaluation underway, flows will eventually exhaust hence recommending caution in GBPUSD. My preferred vehicle for expressing a weaker GBP and profiting from the economic bondage is EURGBP. On the technical side, those with a background in waves will know we are preparing for an impulsive wave targeting the 0.908x and 0.914x minimum flow. Eyes on the close today, a lot of talk making the rounds of a pound clearout. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
EURJPY's Last KissDuring past weeks Euro has been gaining against most major currencies. The main factor that drove this rally was the impulse of ECB to stimulate and restart the economy with decent monetary package. Since then, the sentiment remained bullish and EURO had faced long-term high which it easily broke. Now the market needs to gain momentum again and on this occasion the chances of possible long position arises. As the price created new high, we were able to draw a Fibonacci retracement levels from the last swing and thus expect next price of interest for turnover. Very important levels are 50% and 38,2% of Fibonacci, which are also in confluence with the long-term resistance (now support) at $124.22, which is respected since 5th of June and has already accounted for 6 successful retests, which makes it really strong. With the ECB monetary policy consideration it is likely, that the price will continue to surge and at least retests the last swing high. To make the setup more probable, a supportive trend line (M15) can be drawn to make the timing of the trade even more accurate. Signals: - 50% & 38,2% Fibonacci levels of retracement - Long-term broken resistance, now support to be retested - Positive ECB sentiment - Expected break of the corrective M15 trend line Despite the positive ECB sentiment, it is necessary to think about the macro fundamentals, which set the value in longer time period!
Long
by gatsby01
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.07.22🔸 An 'ingenious' saving move from Europe and finally they are able to get debt mutualisation through. It will be very bullish for EURUSD in the Medium and Long term horizons, although the ST will become a lot more cloudy via Covid as we enter into the Autumn / Winter for the Northern Hemisphere. I prefer to play EUR on the crosses and vs. GBP is a no-brainer considering that no-deal brexit is still to come and counter any short-lived GBP strength. I am fortunate enough to be dealing with an audience who can take a hint and understand when not to believe politicians. It went: Next came: And now we are entering into a whole game, because EURGBP is a good example of how even in FX both sides can align to the same direction and define the central strategy. Here the following line remains that Brexit is giving up competitiveness and market access (at least in the Short-term we can agree whatever your view is on the matter) which opens up the need for currency devaluation. As long as the UK side makes soft, it makes it difficult to build a constructive view on GBP. The latest ‘track and trace’ systems entering into the picture will weigh heavy on consumer confidence and ensure GBP will remain soft. Actively tracking the same loading zones with 0.905x to add longs in EURGBP and 1.270x to load shorts in GBPUSD. A previous example was last year with the elections, but this is no less imaginative. In a situation where both fundamental sides align, EURGBP will be able to turn the 0.91xx handle into a new base for activity which we can handle in an almost virtuoso fashion. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4
EUR/USD as everyone's eyes are on Brussels,RETRACEMENT?FA: Currently, EU leaders are discussing the possibility of a Corona Virus Stimulus package; with there being a standstill between the frugal four (Austria,Netherlands,Sweden,Denmark) and the "Club Med" members (Greece,Italy and France) whom want the stimulus to be treated as a grant but the frugal four disagree. As discussions go on, and the lack of news in the USA and States facing further closures- we could see a strong bullish turn around for the Euro against the dollar. (USA) Expansionary fiscal measures set to reach expiry at the end of July- with talks being held this week on what the next move is- we should see some strong movement. TA: EUR/USD has been strong and has rallied quite strong to break a long term downward trend to turn bullish, however, it is now approaching resistance, so what's next? Resistance is also placed at a HTF support thus now resistance level, as well as being a key Fibonacci level- therefore we can expect a retracement- unless Brussels decides otherwise Can be treated as a short trade with stops placed outside of the green area; with it hedged with a break-out trade If the euro breaks that region and the further resistance, it could approach levels not seen since 2014 -Megalodon Whales (Rahim) Enjoyed Charting this for you all,Please SHARE/LIKE/COMMENT and you are welcome to give your feedback or post your own charts below :) TVC:DXY FX:EURUSD FX_IDC:EURUSD TVC:SPX
by BoSukas