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correction downside Towards Support 122.90 (AFTER ECB Rate)EUR/JPY has recovered nicely from the corrective low of 125.83 and is currently testing short-term key resistance at 126.49. A break above this resistance will confirm the completion of the correction and the on-set of the next impulsive rally higher to 129.06 but ECB expecting U-TURN STRONG EURO towards Downside correction First. Any positive comment sends EUR skyrocket but very fewer chances. Today Correction expecting on weekly Base chart 122.90$ R3: 127.75 R2: 127.30 R1: 126.66 S1: 126.27 S2: 125.83 S3: 125.61
Short
by Allmypips
2
EUR/USD: A deep look using FIST analysis 📊Good morning traders, Our today's Trade of the Day has already reached on of the profit targets and is currently trading 100 pips in plus. Now, here's a FIST update on EUR/USD. FIST stands for Fundamental, Intermarket, Sentiment, and Technical analysis. Fundamental The weak dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair higher and caused a break below the important 1.20 level. This morning, the pair is giving back some gains on risk-off flows and on portfolio rebalancing ahead of the ECB meeting later this week. The ECB meeting on Thursday is the most important event for the EUR this week. The ECB is expected to provide further stimulus to the slowing economy of the eurozone by increasing its PEPP program by around $400-$600 billion and providing new long-term loans at very favorable rates. As inflation is slowing down, further stimulus that could increase inflationary pressures will likely be seen as positive for the euro. In the US, CPI numbers and unemployment claims are the main reports of the week. CPI and core CPI are expected to rise to 0.1% (prev. 0.0%). Unemployment claims are expected higher as well at 723K (prev. 712K). INTERMARKET The current difference between the 2y US and German yields signal the possibility of further weakness in EURUSD. However, it's important to note that the downtrend in yield differentials has mostly been the result of lower US yields. SENTIMENT Fast money has increased its bullish positioning the euro for the third consecutive week ahead of the ECB. Bullish bias has now reached the highest level since October 27, without extreme positioning, signaling further upside potential in the pair. TECHNICALS The technical picture looks bearish in the short-term, but I expect liquidity to enter the market again near the 1.2000 level, which is an important level for the pair. If volume confirms an entry, this is the first level to enter with a long position. The second level to watch is the 1.1860-1.1880 area, where the pair could also face buying pressure. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this post useful! Let me know your views on the pair in the comment section below.
Long
by MujkanovicFX
ridethepig | NFP PlayNFP is threatening the breakdown in EURUSD and across G10 pairs. The flows, with centralisation focused on the dollar follow profit taking and an early advance. This can be exploited and is easy to understand what is in play (as with NZDUSD). We have our shelter at 1.215x which is our ceiling, the next step is to look for areas of value to the downside. In a classical price action style, support regions are suitable targets at 1.211x and 1.200x. This will be met with demand; macro position building. More an anyone else, you will all know how bullish we were on euro ahead of the crowd. We are back above those highs after the breakthrough and with claims ticking down we are in time for payrolls, it is harder to play the buy side this time as we are already extended and at rich levels. The idea is of course an attempt to ride a retracement on the NFP headline. Lets see how it goes.
Short
by ridethepig
15
ridethepig | DAX sufferingAn interesting development on DAX after the planned highs last week. We will go through what does it mean, how is this an advantage to sellers and when is it appropriate to add to the position. The same focus can be applied across the global equity board. Resistance can also be conceived with the presence of stimulus; but total restraint, which reigns from lockdowns stretching into another 3 weeks for Germany will give buyers breathing difficulties...To what extent, should we ask, is this an advantage that we can capitalise on and how unpleasant will that be for buyers? Our very short-term range is +/- 15% ... so although from a timing perspective we are compact, the yield connected with such a wide range is apparent. The main mid-term and long-term range is even clearer: 📍 Rule: when loading on the short-term understand the position our opponent poses in the mid and long term, to further understanding of scope and whether taking the position is worthwhile.. With this in mind, in the long-term macro chart in euro I posted back in 2018... yes 2018... it was about buyers attempting to trap their opponent into a selloff before continuing the legs higher. With a completion of the moves in euro, the formation of the hammer in Germany equities can finally advance with 1.20xx and 1.21xx cleared. But there is no-stopping the digital euro into 2021 and thus the attempt to cancel the currency remains under pressure: As well as active pressure from the currency, there is also the concept of lockdowns and further static economic growth from Germany. We must distinguish from whether this is a short lived -15% selloff or a sustained economic cycle down. Send the troops, time will tell. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURGBP grinding higherBarnier comments on 'no deal is still possible' well illustrating the strategic skill of negotiation. UK has sadly been completely outplayed, not by any fault other than some simple Etonians sticking about fisheries which is 0.02% of GDP...Hard to understand how we ended up here, most £500m private companies would never dream of hiring Johnson as CEO or Sunak as CFO...Brexit was always political fairy-dust, a last despairing effort to continue the 'empire' which was immediately countered via the powerful Klaus Schwab at WEF and etc. 📍 The lows are now protected and in good shape. Of course, you are right to think the threat is for them to sweep the lows, just like how buyers played the interesting line of sweeping the highs in GBPUSD before crashing: I love it when a story comes together. The next leg here is higher for EURGBP, London is vacating its seat at the table (in the short-term at least) and sharp speculators are well aware. Much better to look for a test of the highs here, as we shall see, an important few weeks. I completely understand why some voted for Brexit, unfortunately in such a scenario there is always the question: which carries more weight globally, the UK or the EU? Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
'Risk-off' knocking at the moonlit door; Long Gold📌 After completing a second test of 1.20xx, profit taking entered into play with the fix yesterday. Dollar is clearly restrained by Fed and WH prevention and then by a later of risk hedge clearings . Before I present the usual schematic representation, we should look at just how difficult the environment is to play correctly with timing these reversals. As soon as a divergence is formed, we have the choice of a shallow or deep retrace in EURUSD towards 1.16xx/1.17xx or a sharp leg higher in Gold towards $1,970 and $2,100. Gold bears must also bear in mind risk-off flows are once again knocking at the door via Iran after clearing the vaccine newsflow. I have been fielding questions around stimulus for a while, it is easy to lean on CB's but the correlation is breaking and exactly on time when this transfer should happen. Hard to understand; a better way to put this is look for a large correction in Gold after clearing the board to set about some painstaking defence for the next round of risk-off flows cooking. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming 👍 or 👎
by ridethepig
8
EURUSD Test of strong supply zone, psycho level, shorts in playHello, we are currently testing the so-called the "line in the sand" for both buyers and sellers. Defending the current levels will allow sellers to retest at least 1.1500 / 1450. The breakout through 1,20 ( based on daily close ) opens : 1.2160 / 2250 and 1.2500. As long as under 1.20, and everyone sells the dollar, the counter move can be a kind of solution, especially since there are technically grounds for it ... Short 1.1970/2010 Stop above 1.2050 Purpose 1.1500 / 1450 Good luck
Short
by ForexClub_pl
1
ridethepig | ECB Market Commentary 2020.10.29📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.29 At a time when Lagarde ought to play the “leading” role, something similar to the pacemaker in the Tour de France, and not kick the can with PEPP while reading newspapers about what has happened from her home. I am personally expecting nothingness from the ECB and instead to tee up more QE in December which will be continuation of the bearish euro story. Whether we like it or not the expectations were already stacked towards one side for a muted ECB today kicking the can till December. My sense is that with lockdowns, U.S elections and Brexit hurdles still to clear, waves of supply will keep coming and the pending test of 1.153x is still the most likely outcome. Short-term looking to take the rest of my shorts off at 1.160x, while Medium-term I prefer to be long the single currency and will look to load from cheaper levels in the 1.15/1.14 range. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | DAX into the elections and beyond📍 DAX gaining tempo The previous 2020 macro map, outdated as it may be, contains the overarching manoeuvre which we can now describe as a compounding play. It is as follows: my models started to pick up on the alarm bells towards the back-end of last year, and hinted of DAX making revisiting 10,000. The compounding is going to be of great importance, when we realise the 5th wave is still (yet) to complete. By the time private clients began to call outguessing the Green / CDU coalition and 'Green New Deal' it was too late... and there now occurs two dominos: if DAX retests the lows in a panic move, and sellers force through a retest of the lows for a second time and then the new economic cycle can begin in 2021/2022. Moreover, for those trading the single currency, we are going to get major updates here as we enter into 2021 and digital currencies come through the backdoor. This fact paves the way for perpetual bonds which are on the way to act as a trojan horse for government defaults is of utmost concern. The brutal bear market rally in the euro is not going to help german equities over the coming months, and the ECB knows it which is why they are signalling distress signals louder than usual.
OANDA:DE30EURShort
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | Buy EURGBP expecting GBP outflows📝 EURGBP While the single currency block continues to work together on Covid the UK is as divided as ever, from Scottish independence to the North / South divide. Faster Macro data has started to tick back down in Europe and the UK. We are going to see a decline in activity once more into November and with Brexit still to come this will hurt the UK more in the immediate term. On the technical side, the break of 0.915x is encouraging for bulls and opens up in the near-term a test of 0.927x. I would also like to leave core positions running for the inevitable test of parity. Keep a close eye on 1.294x for those in GBPUSD. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EURUSD Strategy Notes 📌 EURUSD Market Commentary 2020.10.22 A possible reversal between sellers and buyers taking profits After Eurobonds Positional Play , buyers might consider the exchanging manoeuvre from 1.20xx a good level to take profits since these levels are dangerous waters for those wanting to add longs. However, the recapture of 1.18xx is apparent, and noteworthy of how RM accounts have driven the entire leg higher from 1.16xx. Sellers simply play a protection of resistance here at 1.185/1.186 and have a chance to win control as there will be unaware buyers still loading here at these levels thinking a blue wave is positive for markets. To the downside, a test of the 1.153x is still pending and clearly visible that it is worthy of mention. Remember, whenever retail sees that a position is not working initially, they will aim to liquidate and put the remaining capital into a better swing. Unfortunately, all too often, tactics are used to trigger the liquidation and can become very unpleasant. I mea the sort of situation we are seeing around U.S. elections is threatening for another sharp increase in volatility and we have covid to put the cherry on top.
Short
by ridethepig
11
$EURUSD - NO FLASEBREAK SIGNAL BUT CLASSIC CONSOLIDATIONEURUSD didn't make a daily close below the trendline to produce a false break signal, and ojectively it has in fact signals some more. Looking at the head and shoulder topping structure while assuming the September top is in, this is a classic consolidation pattern of tight trading ranges forming a harmonious ABC move, so and I'd expect a solid turn at next key levels. 1.1880 is a closed eyes sell imo with room to average up above. In small already but may shed some tomorrow and sell better levels. Fundamentally, latest PMI's showing improvement in the manufacturing but services rebound has been very slow. Covid is ravaging through Europe, UK and USA and others at staggering rates of daily new cases and there will be another demand shock to global markets at the rate this is going. Governments will have no choice but to impose stricter measures on social distancing, mask wearing etc and this will have a lasting effect on the services sectors, which for many economies is by far the largest contributor to a countries GDP. The ripple out effects can be far-reaching and and governments and ECB will have to provide more economic relief and stimlus. Whilst the Federal Reserve is likely to sit on their hands and hoping inflation would just run hot from here, the ECB is already faced with low inflation pressures and the sudden EUR strength will not help them be any closer to creating some moderate inflation. I think this gives them room to take actions that will slightly weaken the EUR whilst providing more monetary support to fiscal measures.
Short
by doejistar