EURUSDHello Traders!
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
This currency pair is currently positioned below a key resistance zone. It is expected that after a brief upward correction, it will likely decline towards the specified level. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, scheduled to take place in the coming hours, could serve as a key catalyst for this pair's movement.
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Pre ECB Rates Decision Analysis12th September (ECB Rates Pending)
DXY: Climbing towards 102 resistance, could push higher if EUR weakens, needs to break 102.20 for further upside to 102.70
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6135 SL 20 TP 60 (Hesitation at 0.6110)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6685 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Sell 1.3030 SL 25 TP 60
EURUSD: Rates decision pending, straddle opportunity, Sell 1.0985 SL 20 TP 45
USDJPY: Sell 143.50 SL 50 TP 150
USDCHF: Buy 0.8585 SL 40 TP 80
USDCAD: Sell 1.3580 SL 30 TP 70
Gold: Needs to stay below 2520 for downside to 2500
Thoughts on EURUSD before the ECB rate. H4 12.09.2024Thoughts on EURUSD before the ECB rate
I expect the euro to reach 1.0950-1.10 down to the area of option hedges and profile accumulation, and then continue to grow. Of course, there may be surprises, but this is my prior view. In detail we need to keep an eye on the new option fillings, they will tell us which areas will be hedged. The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut, but the main movement will be given at the press conference on further ECB monetary policy plans. My subscribers and I closed our sales in the private channel yesterday.
USD/JPY: Reversal Signal or More Downside? The Japanese yen has tested prices below 141, an eight-month low for the pair. But eventually pulled back above 142. From a technical perspective, this long wick might look to some traders to be the start of a small reversal before its eventual sojourn lower.
Rom a fundamental perspective, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a few hours ago lower than expected. Which means the US Federal Reserve might forgo a 50bps cut in favor of a 25bps next week. This might help support the US dollar in the face of yen strength. Now we have US Producer Price Index (PPI) to look forward to on Thursday.
The Yen against Euro could be interesting to keep an eye on too in the lead up to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its interest rate to 3.5% from 3.75%.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a rebound from the Mean Support level of 1.102. It effectively breached our Mean Resistance level at 1.109, establishing a newly created Mean Res 1.115. The transient selling pressure led to a significant downward movement and is anticipated to retrace back towards the Mean Support at 1.102, possibly reaching down to the interim level of Mean Support at 1.097 in the interim price action.
EUR/USD: Will ECB Resume Rate Cuts Next Week? Futures markets are pricing in a US rate cut for September, with a 62% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 38% chance of 50-basis points. The Fed’s dovish shift has helped the euro surge to its highest level in more than a year.
Attention now shifts to the ECB’s 12 September rate decision. After cutting rates in June and pausing in July, analysts expect the ECB to resume easing amid slowing growth. However, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel, a key hawk, maintains that inflation concerns should take priority over growth concerns.
For EUR/USD, bulls may target the December high of 1.1134 and July high of 1.1275, with support possibly near 1.1000.
EUR/USD - ECB eyeing German, eurozone CPIThe euro has extended its decline on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1095 at the time of writing, down 0.22% on the day. The US dollar has rebounded against the euro this week, climbing 0.89%.
Inflation is expected to ease in Germany and the eurozone, which could have significant impact on the European Central Bank rate announcement on Sept. 12. Inflation declined in German states and the national harmonized inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.1% y/y in August, down from 2.3% in July.
The eurozone releases CPI on Friday. The market estimate for CPI stands at 2.2%, compared to 2.6% in July. The core inflation rate is expected to creep lower to 2.8%, down from 2.9% in July. A drop in inflation in Germany and the eurozone would support the case for another rate reduction next month. The weak eurozone economy and the fact that the Federal Reserve is also poised to lower rates have strengthened the case to cut rates. At the same time, concern about wage increases is a reason for the ECB to hold off on cutting rates.
The Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates next month, which would mark the US central bank joining in the global trend of central banks lowering rates now that the threat of inflation has largely abated. Most FOMC members have come out in favor of a September cut but Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that the Fed should wait for additional data before lowering rates as it would be a mistake to cut and then have to hike again.
EUR/USD is testing support at 1.1087. Below, there is support at 1.1055
There is resistance at 1.1138 and 1.1170
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar showed strong upward momentum throughout this week's trading session. It reached our Key Resistance at 1.111 and completed the Inner Currency Rally at 1.112. Further buying pressure pushed the price to complete an extended Inner Currency Rally at 1.120, with the potential to reach the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.124. Conversely, selling pressure at the current level could drive the price down to our Support level of 1.111.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar exhibited consistent upward momentum throughout the current week's trading session. It successfully retested the Mean Resistance level of 1.099 and the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.100. The breakthrough of these thresholds led to the establishment of a new Mean Resistance at 1.104. A breach of this pivotal level may incite rapid upward movement, targeting the Key Res 1.111 and culminating in the completion of the Inner Currency Rally at 1.112. Conversely, the prevailing downward analysis projects a sustained descent toward a critical Mean Support level of 1.097.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar demonstrated consistent upward momentum during this week's trading session, reaching our Mean Resistance level of 1.094 and retesting the completed Inner Currency Rally at 1.094. The substantial breakthrough of these targets resulted in establishing a new Mean Resistance at 1.099 and a complete Inner Currency Rally at 1.100. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained downward trajectory toward a critical Mean Support level of 1.089. The breach of this significant target may prompt rapid downward movements, potentially extending to target the subsequent Mean Support level of 1.079.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Aug 2, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the most recent trading session, the Eurodollar displayed its ability to recover from the completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.082 and Mean Support levels of 1.081 and 1.078. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained upward trajectory toward a Mean Support level and its associated completed Inner Currency Dip of 1.094. These critical targets may prompt swift downward movements toward a Mean Support of 1.083, potentially extending to target the subsequent Mean Support level of 1.078.
EURUSD Simple Trade Plans; Pre/Post ECB News (new uptrend).ECB deposit rate facility news comes out soon, as well as speech from the ECB in general terms relating to monetary policy.
Anything that confirms a quicker easing cycle will likely feed into a downside drip for the EURO. This comes as a near term uptrend forms on a second high.
Upside moves will rely on anything that will delay a cut (unlikely). The FED has made its position clear lately leading to real weakness around the USD.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the trading session of the current week, the Eurodollar sustained its decline by the Weekly Chart Analysis for the Week of July 19. The prevailing analysis indicates a continued downward trajectory toward a Mean Support of 1.081 and its corresponding Mean Support of 1.078. The anticipated downward movements will result in an initial interim rebound, potentially reaching a Mean Resistance of 1.089.
Where Will JPY Pairs Go Next? Full Yen Tech/Fund OverviewYen Forex Pairs have fallen across the board on rumoured intervention.
This is the propping up of the Yen Currency by Japanese authorities to stop the upward flow of its counterparts and draw further weakness of the JPY due to interest rate differentials between major economies.
The question is, will it continue?
SHORT EURUSDEURUSD remains bearish on the daily timeframe and is currently in an ascending channel with a test at the upper channel, a failure to break above a major resistance area at 1.09-1.10 level, and a bearish daily engulfing candlestick pattern that would confirm its next movement.
The first target is to the lower channel at area 1.07 and if it breaks, the next target will be to the major support zone at area 1.05 and a break below will confirm a movement to the lower of the descending channel at near parity levels.
EURAUD Simple Trade Plans IntradayThe EURAUD has reversed its near term upwards trajectory upon AUD news last night (employment up).
More employment means strength for the AUD as it typically does not help inflation lower. Having that said, we are nearing intraday setups between falls.
Longs preferred lower @.618 on displayed chart, coinciding with higher timeframe areas.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited a notable surge once again, exceeding the Mean Resistance level of 1.090 and the previously attained Inner Currency Rally of 1.091, ultimately reaching this week's Inner Currency Rally of 1.094. The prevailing analysis indicates a sustained downward movement towards Mean Sup 1.086 and its corresponding Mean Sup 1.081. The concluded downward movements are anticipated to yield an initial interim rebound, such as Mean Res 1.086.
How To Make The Link Between Technical And Fundamental AnalysisWithin Market trading, regardless of the assets involved, you need to form both a technical and fundamental case for your bias.
When you do this, you grip great deals, and you also know where it is likely you will head.
This is simple to learn, when described in a simple format.
EUR/USD – slightly lower as ECB holds interest ratesThe euro has edged lower on Thursday. Early in the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0919, down 0.18% on the day. The euro hasn’t posted a losing day since July 9, gaining 1% during that period.
The European Central Bank maintained its key lending rate at 3.75% at today’s meeting, after cutting rates by a quarter-point in June. The decision to hold rates was widely expected, especially after the June cut, and the euro has had a calm day. The markets are following ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, hoping for clues about future rate policy.
The rate statement noted that “services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year”. The markets weren’t perturbed by this hawkish comment as the ECB has demonstrated that it is willing to lower rates even when inflation is above the 2% level, as it did in June.
The markets have priced in two more quarter-point cuts in September and December. ECB policy makers have been cautious and the rate statement reiterated that the ECB was “not pre-committing to a particular rate path”. ECB officials have stressed that inflation remains high and wage growth, which is feeding services inflation, needs to come down in order for the ECB to feel confident in lowering rates further.
In the US, Fedspeak will be in focus, with five public appearances from FOMC members before the week is over. Investors will be hoping to get some insights on Fed rate policy, with the markets widely expecting a rate cut in September.
EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0928. Below, there is support at 1.0907
1.0960 and 1.0981 are the next resistance lines
Pre-ECB rates decision analysis18th July
DXY: Consolidating, could retrace to 104 resistance, test and reject to trade down to 103.50. Needs to stay below 104.20 to remain bearish
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6060 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6715 SL 20 TP 40
USDJPY: Sell 155.55 SL 40 TP 80
GBPUSD: Buy 1.3050 SL 20 TP 90 (Hesitation at 1.3090)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0930 SL 20 TP 50 (ECB decision pending)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8815 SL 25 TP 85 (hesitation at 0.8780)
USDCAD: Buy 1.3710 SL 20 TP 70
Gold: DXY weakness continues, price to trade higher, break 2480 could trade up to 2520
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current week's trading session, the Eurodollar has demonstrated a substantial surge, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 1.085 and reaching the designated target of Mean Res 1.090 and the previously completed Inner Currency Rally of 1.091. The prevailing analysis suggests a potential downward movement for the Euro toward the Mean Support level of 1.086, with additional extensions identified at Mean Support levels of 1.081 and 1.078, respectively.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has surpassed the Mean Resistance level of 1.074 and is currently positioned below the Mean Resistance level of 1.085. The present analysis indicates a potential down movement for the Euro to the Mean Resistance level of 1.078 and subsequently decrease to the Mean Support level of 1.074. However, it is essential to acknowledge the potential for an upward extension towards the Mean Resistance level of 1.090.
EUR/USD eases as inflation ticks lowerThe euro is slightly lower on Tuesday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0712 in the European session, down 0.24% on the day at the time of writing. The euro hit a two-week high on Monday, rising to 1.0776, but couldn’t consolidate and ended the day almost unchanged.
The annual inflation rate in the eurozone dropped to 2.5% in June, compared to 2.6% a month earlier and in line with market expectations. The slight decline was driven a slower pace of price rises for food and energy. On a monthly level, CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, matching the forecast. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.9% y/y, a bit higher than the market estimate of 2.8% y/y.
The downward move in inflation is good news and follows a decline in June inflation in Germany, France and Spain. Services inflation in the eurozone, however, climbed 4.1% y/y in June, more than twice the ECB’s target of 2% .
The inflation report won’t prod the European Central Bank to cut again in July, after an initial quarter-point cut earlier this month. What can we expect from the ECB? That isn’t clear, as Governing Council members are divided. Governing Council member Madis Muller said today that the ECB must be patient with further rate cuts and warned against underestimating price stickiness. Another member, Pierre Wunsch said that another cut was an easy decision but there was no urgency. We’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde at the ECB forum in Sintra later today and the euro could react if Lagarde weighs in on the rate path issue.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell will also speak at the ECB forum later today and investors will be looking for clues about rate cut plans. Expectations of a September rate cut have been steady over the past week at around 60%, according to the CME’s FedWatch.
EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0752. Above, there is resistance at 1.0790
1.0709 and 1.0671 are the next support lines