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#GR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 1 #Greece #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding out against the capital flight from Greek government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, the candy has been sucked and the trader world can see that too. Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #GR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 1 #Greece #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:GR10YLong
by StefanBode
5
Euro/Usd : Price likely to test April low 1.0725 Euro/Usd dropped to the second Fib support 1.0846 as the Germany's court demands justifications for ECB's mass bond buying program . The pair failed to break the 100 day exponential moving average (1.0975) last week ,although price made a high around 1.01017 area . Technically , breaking the 1.0846 short term support,price likely to test the third Fib level 1.0798 and further to the April low around 1.0725 . We have a busy week ahead with plethora of data , ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI later on followed by ECB President Lagarde Speaks on Thursday and the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday . Support 1 : 1.0846 , Support 2 : 1.0798 SSI : 65/35 (Buyers/Sellers) Trend (short term) - Down Trend (Medium term) - Range Major Resistance : 1.0975 ( 100 day exponential moving average)
Short
by Alremeithi
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.04.27A healthy pullback on Friday and this morning with some USD buyers broadly taking profits. Well done all those that caught the initial target into 1.076x, a flawless selloff from the "Worm in the Apple". There is some hope making the rounds across the continent for re-openings which has provided the relief in this bounce. More fairy-dust than substance in my books as the rebound in risk (and hence EUR) will have to come from hard facts in the data from the core and periphery performance over the coming months ahead. How quickly consumers return to business as normal will be an important one to track, as will the potential for a second leg in the virus. I'm still sitting short euro and happy to scale some more back in at these levels as risk has now been paid for in the previous round of profit taking...For those following from the technical conversations around Recycling positions to cover costs of entry (recommend digging into the chart archives for more on this one). For the technicals invalidation of the bearish short-term view comes only with a breach of the 1.090x handle. While we remain below the 1.06 & 1.05 lows are exposed and vulnerable... Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
4
#PT10Y -#ECB is BANKRUPT Part 5 #Portugal #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding against the capital flight from portugal government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, the pig is shaved , and the trader world can see that too if resistance at 1,60 falls. Questionable regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #PT10Y -#ECB is BANKRUPT Part 5 #Portugal #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:PT10YLong
by StefanBode
1
ridethepig | EUR Market Notes 2020.04.22As long as risk sentiment remains negative, USD will remain with an underlying bid. We are starting to see calmer waters on the FX board as euro begins to tread carefully inside this 1.08 handle. I must say I was surprised at the lack of selling interest yesterday after the Oil crash and Equities beginning to show signs of following through, there is definitely something coming on the political side for Europe its just a matter of when rather than if, after all it is the only way to save the currency. For now, European countries are still far apart on Eurobonds (in particular Germany) meaning it will take further pressure on the currency to force Merkel to bend the knee. Happy to add more shorts on any rallies into 1.089x loading zone and look for a main target at 1.05xx. For those wondering about how to play the momentum leg, a very tradable break of 1.076x support is still on the menu today.
Short
by ridethepig
4
#IR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 4 #Ireland #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB is still holding against the capital flight from Irish government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, the fish is eaten, and the trader world can see that too if 1,77 falling. Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #IR10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 4 #Ireland #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:IE10YLong
by StefanBode
1
#IT10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 3 #Italy #EURUSD @lagarde @ecbIn the short term, the ECB can still fight against the capital flight from Italy government bonds, but it is powerless against the capital flight out of the euro. The ECB's new bazooka won't help, Mrs Lagarde. As you can see in the chart, if 3,00 and later 3,85 falls, everything is done and dusted - the trader world will see that too. Look at RSI on monthly base!!! Best regards from Hannover (Lower Saxony) Stefan Bode #IT10Y - #ECB is BANKRUPT Part 3 #Italy #EURUSD @lagarde @ecb
TVC:IT10YLong
by StefanBode
EURUSD downside target of 1.08550 ForecastAs seen on the chart we anticipate a downside move to retest the 1.08550 - 1.08650 levels. We can expect further downside move as the council still remains dovish. Furthermore, Mario Draghi says Fiscal policy has to be the main policy tool. An increase on the monetary stimulus program is also concerning. Not to forget to mention the additional easing measures are not fully priced into the market. On the other hand, analysing price action it is evident that we have bearish momentum with price rejecting at the 1.0990-1.100 level. We have a reversal pattern with a breached bullish trend-line; therefore, we can anticipate a downside move to RT our highlighted support levels.
Short
by SKACAPITAL
1
IMPORTANT MESSAGEAfter much deliberation, I adjusted my current market opinion somewhat. Basically, I am still bearish about the current events and get my idea of ​​the last 5th movement in the bearish direction realistic. However, the following scenario should also be kept in mind and not be surprised by certain bullish tendencies: The governments and central banks of the countries or economies will provide any liquidity that is needed. There is no tactic and debt avoidance, like in the financial crisis in 2009 or the Greek crisis in 2012. Therefore, the market itself reacts to negative data with positive price jumps, since it is assumed that further relief measures will be provided. IMPORTANT ! THIS CAN WORK, BUT THE FALL IS ALWAYS ENORMOUS, because when one link gets out of joint, it pulls everyone down. No country is currently allowed to face acute payment difficulties. In addition, it is still possible to argue whether all negative economic effects have already been sufficiently priced into the courses.
AMEX:SPY
by macrolukas
2
ridethepig | When will EURUSD find a bottom?A good time to kickstart a round of chart updates here...the underlying infrastructure in Europe will be fixed, from a monetary perspective eurobonds will be the only way to save the currency and covid-19 has unlocked Germany one more time. Although we are starting to clear the top of the curve in places like Italy and NY to a lot lesser extent, there is (sadly) a lot of damage to recover in the 'fact' leg across earnings and macro numbers. The dark clouds are still prevalent across Europe, until Germany bend the knee it will be difficult to grab euros with both hands. Instead a further flush of the lows is in play, in my books it will be enough to trigger capitulation and remain in this strategy. For those tracking the examples in DAX we traded the highs earlier in the year, there is marginal room for another leg lower via risk: I am starting to turn neutral there and continue to monitor the situation with an ear to the ground. USD will remain in bid until we clear the risk/panic flows in Coronavirus. For those tracking the short-term technical side in EURUSD for the long-term map we have 1.07xx handle acting as strong support, I expect a breach to trigger the political capitulation which is what we are tracking on the fundamental side . Once we clear the , to the topside a breach of 1.089xx will open up the targets above. These macro swing targets will come into play at 1.18xx, 1.25xx and 1.35xx over the coming Months and Quarters. The courage to intentionally let oneself be put under pressure for days, just on account of a remote possibility, is now rewarded. Buyers will obtain a direct attack by letting the lows go, do not rush into this move as it is one to track for the rest of the year and potentially decade. Pips are for pipsqueak’s ... this is a fundamental swing which consists of setting our opponent a difficult problem. You can see the stakes are being raised; buyers are taking their time developing the cramped floor. And yet, sellers have not yet passed the point of no return at parity, after which it becomes impossible to level the playing field. A very difficult macro concept to understand, jump into the comments with any questions, comments and views!
Long
by ridethepig
3
EURO on the edge of historical collapseTradingview hides EURUSD absolute low of early 1985. Even Investing.com will not reveal it to you. Investing.com provides a close for 1985 and possibility to draw a trendline. You can see it using Fxtop.com historic chart and then use investing.com to draw that trendline. But that historic trendline runs the way I plotted now - the right end is even slightly lower. At any case March monthly shadow did test it - hence the violent bullish reaction from the European Central Bank. At this point it is hard to make any technical prediction because we are dealing with the European Central Bank which can easily push the price. But we are on the very edge of historical trendline. If APRIL candle closes below that trendline that will change EURO history for years to come - a close below will break 1985-2020 EURUSD uptrend (by modern definition of technical analysis) that lasted 35 years. Even we move below that trendline in April it is still not guaranteed that we will stay there. April monthly close below is necessary and May candle (being bearish) has to validate that as well. But I will not be surprised if this breakdown occurs considering the situation in the EU. Even on small April volume EURO keeps flying down. ECB can push the price but not control it.
by ICFX
3
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.26Eyes on EURUSD this morning as we enter into M and Q end rebalancing to put the 🍒 on top (as if there is not already enough in play). A healthy pullback towards 1.097x is enough to draw sellers back in and makes me lean towards playing another leg towards the downside with next 🔑 support located at 1.05xx handle lows. There will be fresh supply at current levels as no one wants to hold risk into month end - fear remains prevalent across the globe and on a humanist level sentiment remains awful. On a slightly more positive note, once these dark clouds clear (still on track for early April) then the path is paved for a massive rebound in risk assets. Remaining as nimble as possible is the pragmatic approach. The idea is no less imaginative than that of the recently posted GBPUSD : Thanks as usual for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc! Jump into the comments with any questions and charts.
Short
by ridethepig
6
BAILOUTS FOR GOVERNMENTS ARE THE REAL PROBLEM!I SEE MANY PEOPLE COMPLAINING ABOUT BAILOUTS FOR THE PRIVATE SECTOR! HOW ABOUT THE REAL PROBLEM: BAILOUTS FOR GOVERNMENTS! I WOULD BET MY LIFE SAVINGS THAT THE ECB WILL GUARANTEE THAT ITALIAN (AND EVERY OTHER EUROPEAN NATION'S) BOND YIELDS REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY SACRIFICING THE VALUE OF THE SAVINGS OF EVERY PERSON IN EUROPE! UNTIL GOVERNMENTS ARE ALLOWED TO DEFAULT, WE WILL CONTINUE A STEADY MARCH TOWARDS GLOBAL COMMUNISM! WESTERN CIVILIZATION, THE FREEST AND MOST PROSPEROUS COLLECTION OF INDIVIDUALS IN THE HISTORY OF THE PLANET, WAS BUILT ON PRIVATE SAVINGS ACCRUED THROUGH EXCESS PRODUCTIVITY (ACCUMULATED CAPITAL)! THE RIGHTS OF THOSE INDIVIDUALS AND THE VALUE OF THAT CAPITAL IS ON THE VERGE OF DESTRUCTION!
TVC:IT10YShort
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
1
EUR Will hit 1.11500 ECB Meeting Tomorrow. But What's Next?EURUSD will make at least a 50% retracement at some point tomorrow 3/12/20. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates by .10% and possibly mention more stimulus. Look for EUR to tag 1.11500. The question is what will happen next? Price could bounce right back up in the descending channel and possibly break up past the channel and make another attempt at 1.15? or Will price head for the 61.8% retracement at 1.10500? Time will tell. The target for the short is 1.11500 (100+ pips). I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Short
by csohrab
1
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.03.05A playable break here in euro, with a more solid resistance found at 1.124x which seems to be the next target for buyers. Now DAX sellers are entering back into the picture which will keep EUR in bid and help us corner our opponent up slowly before a momentum break, though this attempt could be better seen in German Equities: The position which is reached is full of resources, such as: (i) ... EURUSD macro breakdown (ii) ... ECB Floor (iii) ... birds eye view then... breakout You should also take a look at the Dollar focus which arises via FED artificial devaluation of USD: The position we have here appears really simple and clean, but is actually rather complex given the dangerous environment. A break will allow buyers to occupy the flow and expose the 1.124 jurisdiction. In positions like this, play the momentum with extreme force. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump in with your charts and views in the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
22