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ridethepig | DAX 2020 Macro MapAs those following the latest Macro charts in Euro will know, the philosophy of EUR finding a strong bid will constitute good criteria for the devaluation of German Equities and rule out any possibility of setting new all time highs. This is crunching time for the Fiscal side in Europe, if Germany start to use the fiscal side then the logical follow up is EUR long: An ingenious swing move, which is extraordinarily difficult to trade without knowledge of the fundamentals in play. Bulls have all the time been operating in stealth mode, whereas bears starting to go overboard in a counter attack. Mother Nature is taking care of these errors, all at once. In most circumstances she would have turned a blind eye, although from time to time intervention is necessary with a gentle smile and turned cheek. The diagram in Bund Yields highlights the underlying issue: The sacrifice of the 12886 lows in DAX creates freedom for the waterfall manoeuvre. Otherwise sacrifices on the topside (only via a sweep) are still possible. See for example the following flows in CAC: The fact that this attack was able to clear the highs, shows the two different battlefields in play for Europe. The exchange of flows in Europe is particularly worth expressing via DAX shorts with 2020 outlooks all set and ready to go. In the long term, remember to consider the US Equities chart: To secure the position; invalidation and reassessment only necessary with a break above the highs. To the downside, initial targets enter into play at 10,500 ... we will cover and update the flows live here. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversation in the comments with your views/charts.
TVC:DEU40Short
by ridethepig
12
ridethepig | Fading euro rallies into 1.108xThe euro finding more demand overnight with Italy behaving and looking for help on the fiscal side. Risk markets are cooking a s/t rebound via co-ordinated global policy intervention; by no means is this the end of the virus but the underlying negative tone we have been witnessing across mainstream media is starting to soften this week. Global Central Bank co-ordinated policy action will be enough to keep risk markets elevated in the short-term and allow for a temporary rebound in risk (markets are now pricing -75bps from FED ... insane !!!). I am fading rallies in EURUSD today at 1.108x, markets have gone overboard in my books on FED cuts, the impact on global growth is still going to weigh on European data going forward. The lows are currently locked by the support at 1.097x, should we lose it then it will expose them and 1.06-1.05 underneath! Those who traded the leg in USDJPY will be able to pull the trigger again at 109.2x: Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet. Best of luck all those in G10 FX over the coming sessions, thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!!
Short
by ridethepig
9
ridethepig | EURCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01Here we go for a round of important chart update on the FX, Commodity and Equity board... I do not subscribe to the idea of this being the start of the euro reserve currency rally which we were tracking earlier in the year that failed from the Coronavirus short-circuit, although it is certainly moving with speed. Remember we have month end flows in play now too and to put the 🍒 on top the virus still not under control. I am expecting further downside in euro as the outbreak continues to delay the recovery in trade for Europe, now it is crystal clear if it wasn't already that the EUR really holds the key to pandora's box for those wanting to play the reflationary trade. This has been delayed till later in 2020 via the deflationary shock from COVID-19. Tracking 1.05xx-1.04xx in EURUSD. On the CNH side, the PBOC intervention is notable: Advise selling rallies in Chinese Equities for now, the demand for currency will increase as long as the virus shows no signs of abating. I expect this cross to grind towards the 7.40 levels where it would be very attractive for those mid and long-term macro players to buy the dip into 2021. On the technical side, Strong resistance is found at 7.73 / 7.75, use this to sell into and target the support at 7.40 / 7.38. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | DE 10-Year Yield DailyI will try to keep this one relatively short, a very important update to the German 10-year benchmark yield. This is one to track as it is coming after a fresh attempt of a breakdown in EURUSD for the NY open. Here we can see important macro forces in play with extreme risk on the radar via Coronavirus with large sharks being forced to reposition and rebalance defensively for risk-off flows. European Equities (DAX) will do the same dance: Although we did find an all be it temporary but rather traditional bid from the 50% retrace ... the move is clearly running out of steam and softening the near-term optimism around a temporary rebound. This will attract sellers and those with soft hands to start taking European risk off the table. In my books the mid and long term pictures are far clearer for Europe. This will be a lot easier to see when I upload the Weekly DE10Y Yield chart with the close. In any case, the key levels in the map to play are as follows: Strong Resistance -0.15% <=> Soft Resistance -0.25% <=> Mid point -0.34% <=> Soft Support -0.45% <=> Strong Support -0.60% This will also carry important implications for the EURUSD chart so a round of chart updates on the FX, Commodity and to a lot lesser extent French, Spanish and Italian Equities front necessary over the coming sessions. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
TVC:DE10YShort
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Green/CDU Grand Coalition Cooking in GermanyA fresh round of poll updates from Germany with CDU/Green coalition in play: => CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% => GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% => SPD-S&D: 12% => AfD-ID: 11% (-1) => LINKE-LEFT: 9% => FDP-RE: 9% We are marking the highs as widely mentioned previously in the 2020 Dax Macro Map: Markets are unable to shrug off risk from Coronavirus and we are spreading into waterfall mode. PBOC stepping in to attempt stopping the bleeding but smells too little too late. No surprises EUR showing signs of marching in the opposite direction: Those following the latest Macro charts in Euro will know, the philosophy of EUR finding a strong bid will constitute good criteria for the devaluation of German Equities. This is crunching time for the Fiscal side in Europe, if Germany start to turn on the fiscal taps (too late anyway) then the logical follow up is EUR long. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:DEU40Short
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.02.26Here we go for another important NY session … EURUSD holding the 🔑 1.09xx test of resistance ahead of the open as expected. Markets notably anxious of further outbreaks which (sadly) seems unavoidable now. I spotted a lot of euro supply from corporates this morning. Remaining short is perfectly reasonable assuming the current highs hold this PM, targets are located below 1.07. For those in Fixed Income the picture is a lot easier to see as usual they are miles ahead of the retail FX crowd. On EURUSD I am holding shorts from the initial 1.086x entry here for a leg towards the initial support at 1.077x. As long as the 1.09xx resistance is holding there is very little to see to the topside. The EUR weakness is a lot easier to see this morning in EURCHF, this 1.060x level is being defended by SNB: In EQ things are a lot clearer as the waterfall is in play already for DAX, coronavirus has short-circuited the global reflationary theme that market where so happy to latch onto towards the back-end of 2019: ...good luck to all those riding the pig. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc! Stay tuned for a well needed round of chart updates coming across most asset classes.
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.02.24A very important weekend across the globe. Italy, Iran and SK weighing heavy on virus sentiment as capital rushes out the doors. Any hopes of a Q2 rebound are starting to fade and that USD haven demand we’ve seen of late looks set to continue. All eyes this week remain on virus watch, a muted/slightly dovish Lagarde expected on the wires and here happy to sell any bounces into 1.085x/6x. A move through 1.0775 will trigger momentum. On the Bund side things are a lot clearer with a -12% day! Fast paced markets, tracking the 1.086x entry here for a leg towards the initial support at 1.077x. The waterfall is in play, good luck to all those riding the pig. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | PLN Market Commentary 2020.02.19The outflows from Poland have been staggering to say the least, large sharks abandoning ship before the storm reaches shore. Notice how the NBP (National Bank of Poland) has been dovish even though inflation ticks higher ...everything is fine right... We traded the PLN devaluation versus CZK previously, now I prefer EURPLN longs as my 'weapon' of choice. There is room for a leg into 4.3075x and 4.333x as the extension. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. An important round of G10 and EM macro FX charts coming over the next few sessions ...
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Gold Market Commentary 2020.01.16This chart comes after a request from @radyan899464 and a very good time to update the chart as we reach strong support from the initial wave of profit taking after our large swing. Those tracking the previous swing can see in the diagram here: 1595 triggered a lot of profit taking and covering, we are now entering into accumulation and once again get ready to ride the pig with initial targets in Q220 at 1650.xx via US Election repricing (more on this later in the Live room). It is a key area as it will effectively become the differential zone between impulsive and corrective, it is clear the 'C' sequence targets have been reached on the Weekly chart: The important point to note here is should we see failure in the case of paralysing the impulsive move towards 1650 then we must not be caught by the teeth in the saw. The manoeuvres directed here should be taken with caution. Good luck all those looking for another squeeze higher and as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments etc!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.14All 👀 on EUR with heavy sells mounting from some of the biggest sharks in the business. It’s difficult to find anything positive on the macro side in Europe at the moment, and notably I am getting an increasing amount of questions from clients with the same exhaustion. With German uncertainty, ECB emergency cuts making the rounds and when you look at positioning there is room for a leg in EURUSD towards the 1.07xx handle to close the gap from 🇫🇷 elections. Clearly a lot more unwinding to be done and after the fresh break lower and with the macro price drivers unlikely to change in the immediate term, I will look to short 1.0925 aiming for the 1.07 lows.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURUSD Macro Update [Dissecting Waves]The starting position has been difficult to reach for the 3rd impulsive wave after coronavirus risk-off flows hijacked the move. But what now? Either a breakdown to close the gap from French elections in 2017 or an imminent reversal to kickstart the leg; of course if only the positional obligation was not so appealing at these levels for longs because we are obliged to play, instead of with the current direction, some positionally relevant move to strengthen the advance. On the macro side, refreshing to see the lows holding but for how long? We are just simply picking key levels where the price can kick up out of. You don't necessarily need to agree with the wave counts but you see the value levels for those wanting to work the bid. These are not the levels you want to be selling in my books, I will not chase this lower unless we get a daily close below the 5th wave which will naturally call for reassessment of the count. Those tracking the dissection of the technicals will know by now that we are sitting in key support levels from our technical diagram: Regular readers and those with a background in waves will know that the trend resumption towards the topside is only a matter of time. Buyers will repeat the manoeuvre and create a longer term threat - that is the intention! Its only once you have mapped this out and you have an understanding of the big picture in play that you can then come down smaller and start trying to work the intraday legs. I could get even more to this if the US Equities come under pressure and correct which will in turn force FED to tilt further towards the dovish side... In any case we will see how this one goes, I am looking to get long but will need a helping hand from a fresh price driver to assist in flipping the board. Risks to the thesis come from an emergency -10bps hike from the ECB, it does not look in play as long as the lows are holding..clearly markets are testing their patience, a breach of the lows will force Lagarde to capitulate with a cut. There wont be anymore QE because that's too difficult to backtrack. Cutting rates would be the more effective front load....wary of this walking forward. Don't forget to keep the likes, charts, questions and comments coming! Thanks guys...
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.01.16A good time to update the daily chart in EURCHF with Euro starting to trade firmer on the crosses and the CHF run beginning to show signs of unwinding. The 1.074x is starting to look very weak and will give way to sweep all the way down towards 1.062x, here looking to increase exposure; should we visit 1.080x I will not hesitate to increase sizings. For those tracking the Long-term macro chart we remain in the same updated map: Currency manipulation is once again a hot topic with US putting China back on the 'nice' list, smelling SNB to become the next deer in the headlights as CHF inflows are impressive and I believe sharp money is going to test the limits. Good luck those in EURCHF - an advanced chart for the move towards 1.06xx.
Short
by ridethepig
EURAUD Probabilities For Rebound?This is not a guarantee investment advice but seeing the potential risk to reward for upside and knowing the ECB head Lagarde due to give a speech in some minute I thought this pair will have some good volatility. Knowing that during the Asian session the latest updates on retail sales and trade balance for Australia were worst then forecast and previous but the pair continues its downtrend which was fishy and wasn't actually mean to be technically and fundamentally (kinda like things were already priced in). This time we can see a possible rebound from fib 61.80% and knowing if ECB head Lagarde has something good to say which may help boost the euro upward and if coronavirus weighs over higher-yielding currency like Aussie again will be plus point for bull traders in this pair.
Long
by Anatta0
2
EURNZD Possible Trade OpportunityRisk appetite has recovered in recent trading sessions as China seems to be stepping up its game when it comes to keeping the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the economy contained. This was enough to bring EUR/NZD down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on its recent rally, and it appears that buyers are trying to defend this area. Price is currently trading below the weekly pivot point level and a deeper pullback could last until the 50-61.8% Fibs that span an area of interest. A bounce off the 50-61.8% area could take EUR/NZD back to the swing high around 1.71770 (around weekly pivot point R1). With ECB head Lagarde due to give a speech in an hour, I’m hoping to see some volatility for this pair. If the speech favor euro we can actually see a bounce but if it doesn't help the positive sentiment for euro we may see the price dip further without any pullbacks from those key levels of fib.
Long
by Anatta0
ridethepig | Feel The Bern!Here a very good time to update the Daily chart in EURUSD as we approach the infamous "Loading Zone" at 1.104x for the European close. A temporary reprieve for US data but in this case sellers have already exposed their stops on the highs while buyers continue to load on the ranks. The exchange/consolidation in the short-term flow makes it possible for buyers to continue loading at support. But in this case too, a quiet move (after the powerful moves in Asia) namely consolidation at support then check-mate on the next breakup. This will likely come tonight by Bernie winning in Iowa which will weigh heavy on the USD. You will notice the concentration of forces on the Weekly related diagram: In this position, the direct exploitation of calm waters after the storm is forcing away many participants. It is of prime importance to perform this manoeuvre in the Asian session! Good luck all those in EURUSD, I tactically stay long and watch 1.12xx handle for a break above. To the downside reassessment is only necessary below 1.095. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and we can open the discussions!
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | EUR Spot Commentary 2020.02.03After managing to retrace most of Friday's rally we are going to open up the Weekly flows for EURUSD; EUR saw notable month end demand as smart money understands the shift behind the curtain at the ECB. The highs in this are going to be capped at the 1.12 handle with main targets 1.125x and anything beyond this would have to come from the USD side at this point. Before we dig any deeper into the flows lets quickly recap the charts we are tracking: On the Macro side: For the Long-Term Technical diagram: For the Mid-Term Technical diagram: The DXY Monthly chart: The virus driven risk via growth slowdown in China is showing no signs of abating, it will impact Europe directly and mean we need to run further reviews on the impact before making a decision around whether outlooks need changing. The PBOC are attempting to stop the bleeding, technically this should reach 1.125 as a minimum flow. It will be difficult to make any concrete changes in the mid and long term charts without understanding more around the impact. For now the levels to track are 1.104x and 1.125x. Good luck all those in EURUSD, I remain bullish and lean towards the 1.125x move completing. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | ECB Macro FlowsHere we go...Markets are not expecting a lot from the ECB fundamental front , rates will remain on hold with more focus on the hard macro data tomorrow. The only thing to 🔎today is for clues around duration of policy review. On the technical side , jurisdictions are defined clearly on both sides as EUR is comfortably holding the 1.108/9x support. The initial targets are located at 1.125x resistance while stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x. My feeling is that macro players betting on the topside are itching to get going as the board is setup in favour of EUR. Happy to hold longs for now. In the Long-Term chart (see diagram below) buyers have broken out of the resistance channel; amongst other effects, this reduced the sellers in EURUSD to become a prisoner in their own camp. The main function of the breakout appears to be as a competent bi-product in the USD devaluation / 2020 reflationary theme. The technicals for the long term are striving to reach 1.21xx and beyond. But the concept of "attacker" goes much further. You can also defend areas (for example the 1.108/9x today in ECB) or defend yourself against a breakout: Buyers are securing a wide stretch of the swing territory. This could be considered as gaining momentum with green shoots appearing in Europe already. This means that macro recovery will be used as weapon of force: Good luck all those in EURUSD, and trading ECB today. We can open the short-term flows if there is enough interest in the comments.. as usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
14
Markets calm too soon. Preparing for Fed's decisionDespite the fact that the coronavirus epidemic is in full swing (the number of deaths has already exceeded one hundred, and the number of infected has approached 5000), investors sighed with relief. The Fear Index (VIX) crashed 15%, safe-haven assets were down, and stock markets and oil were up. Since we still do not see reasons for optimism, our recommendations remain valid: we are looking for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen within a day, and we are selling the Russian ruble and stock markets in the medium term. As an argument, we will cite information from the head of the Medical School of the University of Hong Kong, Professor Gabriel Lung, who announced the data from which it follows that 10 times more people are infected with the coronavirus than is officially considered. According to him, in Wuhan alone, 25,000 people are infected with the coronavirus, and the total number is 44,000. He predicts that the number of coronaviruses infected in China will double in 6 days. If the markets decide to respond to this information, then we may well become witnesses of what happened on Monday. The only recommendation is that we recommend buying oil as a kind of hedge for other positions that are somewhat unidirectional regarding investor sentiment, as well as an independent, not hopeless position. Now everyone is fixated on one component of the oil market situation - demand. But there is still a suggestion. And in this regard, Libya sends a rather strong bullish signal to the market. We are talking about the possibility of an almost complete stoppage of oil production in the country. According to the head of National Oil Corp. Mustafa Sanalla in the near future production may be reduced to 72 thousand b/d. from the current 262 thousand barrels per day. Meanwhile, the main central bank of the world today will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy. With a probability of 87%, the bet will be left unchanged. At the same time, 13% of traders believe that the rate will be increased. Quite symptomatic is the fact that markets do not even consider the possibility of reducing the Fed rate. But unlike the ECB or the Bank of Japan, the Fed still has enough space for this to maneuver. So, they will almost certainly not touch the bid. So, all attention will be focused on the comments of the Fed. What are the plans of the Central Bank for 2020? How long will the money market continue to pump liquidity through repos? Answers to these and other questions can determine the configuration in the financial markets. Today we will not make plans and predict the reaction of the dollar to the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Our plan for working with this currency for today is to stay out of the market, study the position of the Fed and tomorrow will formulate a plan of work with the US dollar.
FX:USOILLong
by Trade24Fx
Central Banks weekly results, Coronavirus, Fed & BoELast week was marked by meetings of the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and the ECB. The first wave of decisions showed that the central banks are not yet ready for any changes in monetary policy. You can understand them: at the current rate of economic growth, raising the rate is impractical, and there is nowhere to lower it (at least in the case of the Bank of Japan and the ECB). ECB expected to detail the new monetary strategy but did not get it. According to the head of the Central Bank Lagarde, before November December 2020, it will not be. This week will be the second wave of meetings of the Central Banks. The Fed will announce its decisions on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. With the Fed, the intrigue is minimal, but there are doubts about the Bank of England - a number of analysts predict a rate cut. But we will talk about this closer to Thursday. The main global event of the past week was the coronavirus epidemic in China. The situation looks quite menacing. About 40 million people are limited in mobility. The tourist season is disrupted (all this happens at the height of the celebration of the Lunar New Year). Economists are only just beginning to calculate possible losses, but it is already clear that the damage will be very significant. But events are still only at the progress stage. It is very likely that this week will also be marked by growing fears in the investor environment in connection with the epidemic. We cannot but note that risky assets (primarily stock markets) are potentially under attack. But safe-haven assets, on the contrary, have good chances for growth. So this week we are again buying gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we will continue to sell the Russian ruble: the formation of a new government, a hasty and generally dubious constitutional reform, the outcome of risky assets - all these are good reasons for the correction of the ruble. On Friday, January 31, Great Britain officially leaves the European Union. This is an occasion to recall the pound and its purchases. Recall, when the markets were just beginning to believe in the “soft” Brexit, the pound grew to the area of 1.41-1.43. Now it is becoming a reality, but the pound is quoted at about 1.31. Which in itself is a reason to think about buying it.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
ECB strategy, record pessimism amid record greedYesterday, the ECB expectedly left the parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone. This was predictable, so most were interested in the new strategy of the Central Bank. But Lagarde greatly disappointed the markets, saying that before November-December, one could not count on any clarity in this matter. Thus, the euro will not have to rely on support from the ECB in the foreseeable future. So the decline in the single European currency was quite natural yesterday. Not even Lagarde’s remarks on the fact that moderate growth was observed in the European economy did not help. In general, the euro continues to look attractive enough for sale. Increase pressure on the euro and sales in the EURJPY pair, which we recommended selling the pair when it was quoted above 122. PricewaterhouseCoopers recently announced the results of a survey of heads of major world companies. We have already analyzed the results of a similar survey from Deloitte and note that PWC confirmed the previous results: the business is experiencing record pessimism since 2009. Only 27% of company heads expect improvement in the economy. Most expect a slowdown in the global economy. Characteristically, the most pessimistic leaders in the United States. Which once again convinces us of the correct course on sales in the US stock market. Meanwhile, the fall of the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index by 2.8% on the last trading day before the lunar New Year, was the largest drop in eight months. Naturally, with such a level of pessimism, purchases of safe-haven assets look great. So today we will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen. Again, the epidemic in China is in the process of development: the second large city, Huanggang (population about 11 million people), has been closed for entry and exit. Railroad interrupted with the city of Ezhou. Friday promises to be a rather volatile day. Data on business activity indexes for the Eurozone and selected European countries, as well as the UK and the USA, coupled with statistics on retail sales in Canada, practically guarantee that it will not be boring.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EUR/AUD bounce or a break today?!1-hour time frame, EUR/AUD is trending higher inside a rising channel and the pair is currently testing support. Aussie may have enjoyed a strong run from impressive job data in the Asian session, but it could return those gains to the euro if the ECB sounds more upbeat. Stochastic is indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion among sellers, too. If price action makes fakeout from daily pivot s3, SMA 100&200 and price admiring the rising channel's lower trendline (support) may be the first signals of bearish momentum fading off. This could be the chance for buyers to hop in and take back price up to the top of the rising channel around daily r1 of the pivot but before that, any major adjustments to price stability and growth targets could impact the euro during ECB release which must be taken care. Some analysts predicting that there could be more optimism surrounding recent economic data release. Breakout lower from all those above mentioned crucial areas of interest with strong bearish momentum can be a case if ECB mess up with its upcoming release which can boost the bearish bias idea on this pair!! Oh, and I will like to bet on bounce bais yo! What about you pals? Which team are you? Bounce or break? Feel free to share your ideas in the comment section ;)
Long
by Anatta0
5