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UK election results and ECB decisionConcluding a year that saw the central bank take down its benchmark rate three times, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday met widely held expectations and kept the funds' rate at the same level. The Fed is completely satisfied with the current state of things. As a result, markets do not expect any changes in the monetary policy until the end of 2020. The dollar was sold out following the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments. Our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Another promising position for today is pound purchases. General election 2019 polling day today Today, December 12. Its results can change not only the political situation in the country but also affect Brexit. Moreover, its influence can be quite diverse and even opposite. Detailed analytics on this issue is given in yesterday’s review. Here, we note that, in our opinion, the balance of threats/opportunities and profits/risks is biased towards profits and opportunities. Christine Lagarde faces her first real test at ECB debut meeting. The era of Draghi is over, but what Lagarde will remember is still unclear. If she decides to express her vision and strategy, movements may well be in pairs with the euro. As for the parameters of monetary policy, today we do not expect any changes. So today it’s worthwhile to be more careful with the euro, on the one hand, be more careful, and on the other, the euro may well get out of hibernation, which will provide opportunities for earning. And finally, a few words about the oil market. IPO Saudi Aramco the initial public offering is expected to raise at least $25.6 billion, making it the largest ever with a capitalization of $ 1.88 trillion. The oil market more than calmly reacted to this news. Nevertheless, so far our position on oil remains unchanged - we will continue to search for opportunities for oil purchases on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
Strange last week, the OPEC decision & near futureThe reasons for the markets getting out of “hibernation” are an active news background interspersed with the news. Recall, it was launched by Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel from Argentina and Brazil and at the same time accuse these countries of currency manipulation. What was perceived by us as an expansion of the trade war and a possible beginning of the currency war. Well, the week ended with the publication of statistics on the US labour market, as well as the completion of the OPEC meeting. Let's start with statistics on the US labour market. Honestly, it surprised us. The numbers came out abnormally high for the current reality of the US economy (+ 266K with a forecast + 180K). Also, the unemployment rate fell to its record low marks (3.5%). The growth of the dollar against the backdrop of such excellent data was logical. But, given the anomalous nature of the given data, we would not be in a hurry to conclude. At least one more confirmation is needed that + 266K is not a coincidence, but a pattern. So on Monday, we will rely on local profit-taking in the dollar after Friday's growth, and therefore we will look for points for its sales. Note that on Friday our recommendation for news trading in the USDCAD worked out perfectly: excellent US data overlapped with bad figures on the Canadian labour market, as a result, the USDCAD soared by 100 points. Perhaps the most important event in terms of the consequences of the past week was OPEC’s decision to further reduce oil production from 1.2 million to 1.7 million from January 1, 2020. So, we can talk about the OPEC + agreement №3 (recall, the first one, provided for a reduction of 1.8 million barrels, the second one 1.2 million barrels per day). At the same time, Saudi Arabia made an unexpected statement of readiness on its part to further reduce production by another 400 thousand b / d. That is, the total reduction may reach 2.1 million barrels. This is the highest reduction since the cartel's attempts to stabilize the situation in the oil market. Despite the rather modest oil growth on Friday, such an outcome of the OPEC meeting is a very strong bullish signal. So this week, we will look for points for oil purchases. It would seem that after such a busy week the markets need a break, but you should not count on it. This week promises to be even more volatile. Key events are the announcement of the Fed decision on monetary policy parameters in the US, the ECB in the Eurozone, as well as elections in the UK. And although both events seem relatively predictable, there is enough time for surprises. How to make money on each of this news we will write a bit later. As for our positions, we do not see any reason to change our basic strategy (except oil). Therefore, we will continue to buy safe-haven assets (gold is simply perfectly substituted), sell the dollar, and this week we will actively build up a long position on the pound - the victory of conservatives in the UK parliamentary elections will have to hit the pound higher. we will buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
ridethepig | Buying Dips In Euro...A very good time to update the Euro chart after the infamous "Worm in the apple". For those who have not played before I highly recommend seeing the textbook examples from the playbook here: EUR holding well and failing to give anything back to bears after our flawless swing earlier in the week (but also not taking the widely mentioned key 1.11xx resistance). While its both unsurprising and clear that risk markets are less sanguine, perhaps what is surprising is the resilience the Euro has shown. For those macro players this is screaming loudly !!!! that FX positioning is changing into yearend and the flight to quality into USD is losing its importance . The technical jurisdictions are clearly mapped with 1.109x acting as resistance, if US data undershoots again today a break of the highs is in play. Those looking to add bullish exposure should track the 1.103x support. Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term swing: I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials. This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD . The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency. Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues. Good luck to all those trading the buy side and today's data. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Long
by ridethepig
5
Worm In The USD Apple!! An live example of position execution in EURUSD...Vol has been trading at all time lows with EUR in a 10 tick weekly range. I am looking to fade the extremes. For the execution here we have infamous Worm In The Apple alerts triggering... I am going to give some room for bears to run the stops to the downside again. In usual circumstances it will be a good opportunity for bears to load, however smart money who understand the macro flows in play will ping the lows into year-end. This is for expert traders only, for those new and first timers who haven't played "Worm In The Apple" you can see a live examples of the exact same flows in GBPJPY here: For the macro flows we can comfortably lean on the next wave in EURUSD: Lastly the Long-term chart from 2018: Those tracking the buy side can use this chart to know in advance that 1.0975 will be bid, a lot of demand interest from private clients I work with month and year end positioning in play. Genuinely most of the time the stops will only hold on a solid price driver, the move down I expect to be soft and flimsy allowing transition of ownership. Best of luck all those looking to bid the lows, please keep the support coming with a like and comment your ideas, suggestions and questions.
Long
by ridethepig
3
Euro Funded Carry Trades!This time I have an update to the macro chart to show the impact of increased borrowing on the Euro as European banks continue to led abroad. The flows are very complex in nature but very easy to track, we have two major forces in play which will serve the main course for the theme in 2020. I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials . This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD. The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency. Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues. For the chart deck today we have: (i) A quick review of the wave count we have been tracking in this leg: (ii) While we can continue to comfortably lean on the long-term macro chart posted from 2018: Risk assets continue painting a positive story with Equities marching higher, cyclicals outperforming defensives and small caps outperforming large caps. However, rates and commodities clearly were not copied into the email with global yields and industrials stuck in first gear. Recommend all to bookmark this as an early warning sign of what is coming in 2020. Perhaps the most interesting highlight of all comes from EM FX which continues to underperform vs yields and equities. Those following the previous conversations from 2018 will remember we traded this theme before; the same mainstream media in 2018 are selling the 2020 story as domestic EM related problems - well we know from experience in 2018 that these issues soon turned out to be a global pandemic. Thanks all for keeping the likes and comments coming.
Long
by ridethepig
EURAUD Reversal PatternThis idea is similar to my GBPAUD idea which is still valid. Awaiting the break and close is our trigger. EURAUD hit a resistance zone at 1.6320. We have been in an uptrend, but one factor which goes against this idea would be the swings, or higher lows, are not very prominent. However, there are 2 swings in the trend which is good for our trading. We can see the bounce to make another higher low has been sold. It appears we will be making our FIRST lower high with the break of the 1.6210 zone. This is the zone I am watching for a break. 1.6120 is a previous flip zone and 1.6095 is a demand zone both of which we can target.
Short
by Uncharted-FX
2
ridethepig | EURSEK 2020 Macro MapTime for another forward walk in 2020, this time the focus is EURSEK. I am tracking for a year of "two halves" with the first providing support for SEK and a lot of demand for the most undervalued G10 cross. On the SEK side lets start with the Long-term chart: On the EUR side lets start with the Long-term chart: For the Swedish Macro details, Sweden is badly exposed to extreme levels of domestic credit with the SEK depreciation. Houses in Sweden have also not been attractive for a while and are finally showing signs of a bounce. The Riksbank is widely expected to hike in Dec, if the housing market plays ball then we can have more hikes from Riksbank next year. We have traded EURSEK a few times previously here: Risks to the thesis come from the Swedish housing market, if this breaks down we are going to see expectations shift in EURSEK. I will be releasing my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on here or Tradingview.
Short
by ridethepig
2
How to make money on a pound and what to do with oilThe situation in Hong Kong continues to escalate. Trump promises to sign a scandalous law to support demonstrators, which is extremely describing China. And although the US and China declare progress in the negotiations, in such conditions, it can break at any moment. So we continue to look for points for purchases of gold and the Japanese yen. As for the other news - the impeachment process continues in the USA, the UK is preparing for the elections and Saudi Arabia for the IPO Saudi Aramco. In light of the upcoming elections and the uncertainty with its outcome, we can’t count on the growth or decline of the pound in the next couple of weeks. But on the other hand, understanding this opens the doors for aggressive intraday trading without explicit preferences. So, we are armed with hourly oscillators and actively trade GBPUSD. Oil has grown quite well over the past couple of days amid information about rising oil reserves in the US, as well as increased tensions in the Middle East. These events are not one of those that can significantly change the balance of power in the market. So Friday looks like a great day for oil sales. First of all, we are waiting for business activity indices to be published in the Eurozone, the UK and the USA. Also, pay attention to retail sales in Canada, as well as the speech of the new head of the ECB Lagarde. Given that markets are now very sensitive to macroeconomic statistics, even relatively minor data can trigger a surge in volatility. Well, from the new head of the ECB, her vision of monetary policy in the Eurozone has long been expected.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
EURJPY Likely to Decline towards 119.00 After Support Break!Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details: • ENTRY POINT • STOP LOSS • TAKE PROFIT • RISK TO REWARD The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade. My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis: • Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout. • Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade. • I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis. • Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup. Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis. Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can! The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Short
by FX618Analysis
1
EU: Long Setup (11.12)The Euro has dropped steadily from the previous higher-low in the current long-term downtrend (1.11795). The weekly support of 1.1 is within 10 pips. Tomorrow and this week we'll be looking for longs at the key level of 1.1 Staying dynamic and not being stuck on one bias is key to seeing through the noise and trading the Euro in peace. If support is found, I expect 1.175 to be hit as an upside target very quickly. This trade entry is provided in our telegram channels.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3442968