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ridethepig | EURUSD 2020 Macro Map + Flow BreakdownAfter failing to clear 1.12xx before Christmas it is a good time to update the infamous macro chart. The floor is showing signs of permanently raising higher and with markets itching to play the reflation theme in H120, USD devaluation entering into play via Fed flooding USD supply side and we are going see a sharp reversal triggered here with momentum on the channel break in Q120. Lets start by digging deeper into how we got here; those who have followed my post since 2018 will remember the Long Term EURUSD chart: After an exhaustive 2nd wave via protectionism fuelling trade war outflows and causing European macro numbers to ran out of steam, we FINALLY started to find a floor via ECB Tiering : For those with an understanding in waves, you will notice the picture is a lot clearer on the weekly : Although expensive with rollovers the lows have been very tradable, a loud well done all those who caught the initial breakout which we traded live here: Support for USD is starting to run out... with all roads leading to weakness the highs in DXY are likely set for a very long time. We are trading the very highs in the range on the monthly chart, it's crunch time. The USD 2019 Macro Chartbook: We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below 1.095xx and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis). Plenty of resistance above the market, I would expect chop to continue into January and with liquidity dry we can look to add to our longs when participants return to their desks on 27th. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
19
ridethepig | Getting our bearingsHere the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: The correct march forward for bulls here over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months. I call this excessive generosity! All dips have been bough and those following are locked in with: (i) (ii) After this march towards the border, remember to create an appetite, the bull must start the day with a hearty breakfast of the late and weak sellers going overboard on the Macro side: We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below the key support below and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis). On the USD side, here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15 years of the previous bullish USD cycle we are reaching the end of the road with the USD devaluation acting as the global reflationary valve: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2019.11.27With Trump Administration desperately attempting to add momentum to the $ downside via another Fed cut and pressure on ECB, combined with a convergence in US-EU differentials will lead to a long-term rebound in EUR. I am expecting volatility to expand into year-end after completing the 76.4% retracement. For those tracking the USD long-term chart from last month: From a waves perspective a very important year on the macro front which opened up the major monthly reversal targets: Initial monthly targets: 1.15 Long-term monthly targets: 1.20 Best of luck all those tracking EUR as we enter the final few pages in the year, and importantly, thanks all for keeping the likes and support coming.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2019.12.18Very little to update on EUR with flows on both sides clashing and causing minor chop inside the 1.11xx handle. Better numbers than expected from Germany this morning providing a gift for those adding on dips. A quick review of the two positions we have traded live so far with the infamous "worm in the apple". A quick review of these charts: As long as support at 1.110x holds I remain bullish looking for a break of 1.12xx to kill the year in FX markets. This will leave us in a very handsome position for the 2020 macro map: Good luck all those buying EUR dips... Thanks for keeping the support coming!
Long
by ridethepig
11
AUDEURDespite the RBA setting a dovish when it comes to all things $AUD this spike in price action has caught my eye, enough for me to justify a pre-emptive move in the name of $AUD strength. Trump's impeachment at the house will not have an impact because the senate where Republicans hold the majority will not vote against their own political leader (well at least that is what the general consensus is); however this does not make Trump look good in the public eye and with elections around the corner this threatens his re-election prospects. Which is enough to garner a few smiles across the pacific in China, where a scenario of Trump not in office would surely improve Chinas seat at the table of negotiations.
Long
by AtacamaFund
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2019.12.16...That was it for the day on the FX board. Highlights going to EURUSD chopping through the 1.11xx handle and continuing its slow grind higher. We will need assistance from European macro numbers to make the move impulsive in nature (no surprises today’s PMIs suggest some early signs of stabilising). Services continue to do the heavy lifting while manufacturing lags badly thanks to protectionism. I will continue to add on dips and ride the pig with reassessment only necessary below 1.110x. GBPUSD … 1.35xx acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. There is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term, with Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. Good luck all those trading EURGBP, GBPUSD and EURUSD. A superb lineup as we enter into the final stages of the year, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | MAJOR BREAKOUT IN PLAY FOR EURUSDWith Fed & ECB cleared a good time to update the EURUSD chartbook: We have positioned live in two textbook cases: For the technicals EURUSD remains rangebound till we break above the highs. Only a close above will suggest a more important base is in place and upgrade my thesis to a conviction. Plenty of resistance above the market, I see scope for 1.16 in 2020 but would expect this to attract some profit taking. Good luck to those trading EURUSD already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
Last week results & immediate plansThe markets finally went out of “hibernation” so we could observe fluctuation not by 40-50 pips, but by 100+ (well, or 400, as is the case with the pound on Friday). Last week began with Trump's tweet about the successful completion of the first phase of negotiations with China. Recall, on December 15, the United States threatened to introduce additional tariffs on goods from China in the amount of $ 160 billion, which kept the markets in suspense. According to Fox Business, Washington and Beijing completed the "first phase" of the trade transaction, but its terms may not be publicized at all. Formally, this is an occasion for optimism and the start of sales in safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, we consider the current equilibrium to be extremely fragile and continue to look for points to buy yen and gold on the intraday basis. Then there was a meeting of the Fed, which showed that the US Central Bank is serious about holding a pause in monetary policy - everything suits US Central Bank in the current state of affairs in the economy. But at the same time, the Fed will continue to flood financial markets with money through the Repo system. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction was replaced by a sharp expansion: according to the Fed, it plans to infuse $ 500 billion. If this happens, then by mid-January the Fed’s balance will increase its balance by 10% in just a month. As a result, the balance will exceed $ 4.5 trillion and reach new record levels. Honestly speaking, instead of gradually removing this money from the system, the Fed continues to increase its amount. In the end, it will end badly. For the dollar, this, in our opinion, is a kind of sentence. Classic demand-supply chart: with a sharp increase in supply, the price should decline. So this week and for the foreseeable future, we will sell the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. The first ECB meeting chaired by Christine Lagarde ended with nothing - the monetary policy parameters did not change. But the new head of the ECB made it clear that it was time for the Central Bank to change its strategy of action and promised to present its vision by the beginning of 2020. The main event of the week was the victory of the conservatives in the parliamentary elections in the UK. Many have already called this a kind of second Brexit referendum since voting for Johnson is a vote for his plan to leave the EU by January 31st. The pound on this occasion rose sharply on Friday, reaching 1.35. After that, we perceive some correction as an excellent chance for its cheaper purchases. Indeed, by and large 1.35 - this is not the limit of growth and the pound could well grow to the area of 1.40 and even higher. As for the interesting perspective positions USDRUB purchasing (this will become a kind of hedge for other positions on the sale of the dollar against the euro, pound, Japanese yen and other base currencies). In general, the week ahead is quite eventful: the announcement of the results of the Banks of England and Japan, GDP of the USA and Great Britain and so on. This means that it makes sense to start trading after a rather long period of hibernation in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Britain Election Results, Lagarde Position and Trump TweetsElections in the UK, ECB decision and potential approach the finish line in the first phase of negotiations between the US and China. We will take these matters up one by one. In Britain, parliamentary elections were held. The conservatives, led by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson, confidently won. This victory quite radically changes the political alignment in Britain, but for us, it is interesting primarily for Brexit. In this case, our basic version worked out perfectly: the “soft” Brexit option will be implemented based on the current version of the agreement between the EU and the UK. Naturally, the pound pulled up amid such results. Recall that in our reviews this week we actively recommended buying it. So congratulations to those of our readers who listen to our recommendations, with excellent results. The ECB yesterday expectedly left monetary policy parameters unchanged. And the volume of the asset buyback program (quantitative easing) remained at the level of 20 billion euros. The new head of the Central Bank Christine Lagarde said that the slowdown in the Eurozone economy has stopped. She could have been trusted, if not for yesterday’s data on industrial production in the Eurozone, which showed a decrease of 0.5%. As for the other her statements, it is worth noting the intention to revise the ECB's monetary policy strategy, but some details will become clear not earlier than from the beginning of the next year. But this did not contribute to the growth of the euro today. Brexit is a problem not only in the UK but also in the Eurozone. Accordingly, its resolution is positive for the euro too. Yesterday we could observe the sales in yen pairs and gold, that is, in safe-haven assets. This sale was based on Trump's tweet that the United States came close to a deal with China. Today we will buy safe-haven assets: first of all, sell EURJPY and USDJPY as a less risky option, but we will also look for points for buying gold. Recall, on December 15, the United States may increase duties on goods from China. China will naturally response. Thus, Trump's tweet creates the illusion that there will be no further escalation. If the illusion is dispelled, it will provoke a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EU: Medium-term outlookThought I would share outlook on where I think EUR/USD is headed longer term as we are heading into new year with new ECB President. Fundamental: EU Growth remains subdued entering Q4 with GDP at 0.2% ( QoQ ) - Retail Sales missing their mark down by 0.6%. - as well as Industrial Production and Factory Orders in Germany continued to fall The world economy outlook remains sluggish and uncertain. This lowers demand for Euro area goods + services and also affects business sentiment and investment. Next Thursday Christine Lagarde will make her debut where she should set the course of the ECB for the medium-term. Will EU emerge as a proactive economic stakeholder, pushing through more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, or a passive bystander? US GDP Q3 still outperforming other major economies at 2.1% *Outlook for Global growth remains slow through end of Q2 2020 due to a number of factors; such as demographics, disruptive technology, climate change, Trade relations, etc. *If/When the US-China and US-EU can manage to work through their trade deals, then business sentiment and uncertainty should ease and allow DXY to drop and EU to rise. Technical: Looking at weekly time frame price is struggling at a bearish 20 SMMA ( 1.10600 area ) with 100 and 200 SMMAs well above price, indicating longer term bear trend in tact. 1.09900 is next current Fib target for bears where price should retrace/ consolidate before breaking lower. 1.08150 price area has held fairly well in past and could be target for swing/ position holders to enter long...a break below could waterfall. Currently in a Falling wedge which could play out as a reversal pattern...reversal won't be valid until price has a break and close above trend line on weekly time frame. Until then, Short til it's not! Would love to hear your thoughts/ analysis *Trade at your own risk and have a great year -Krecioch
by Krecioch
Pre ECB Rate Decision December 12th "Dovish Draghi drags EUR/USD lower" has been one of this analyst's favorite headlines – but there is a new boss in town. Christine Lagarde has taken over the European Central Bank's presidency from Mario Draghi and now makes her first decision. *Christine Lagarde makes her debut decision as ECB president. *Investors will eye the president's performance and new economic forecasts. *Lagarde may attempt to appease ECB hawks, driving the euro higher. What is your view on the Euro and the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?
Long
by PoshTraderAnalysis
UK election results and ECB decisionConcluding a year that saw the central bank take down its benchmark rate three times, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday met widely held expectations and kept the funds' rate at the same level. The Fed is completely satisfied with the current state of things. As a result, markets do not expect any changes in the monetary policy until the end of 2020. The dollar was sold out following the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments. Our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Another promising position for today is pound purchases. General election 2019 polling day today Today, December 12. Its results can change not only the political situation in the country but also affect Brexit. Moreover, its influence can be quite diverse and even opposite. Detailed analytics on this issue is given in yesterday’s review. Here, we note that, in our opinion, the balance of threats/opportunities and profits/risks is biased towards profits and opportunities. Christine Lagarde faces her first real test at ECB debut meeting. The era of Draghi is over, but what Lagarde will remember is still unclear. If she decides to express her vision and strategy, movements may well be in pairs with the euro. As for the parameters of monetary policy, today we do not expect any changes. So today it’s worthwhile to be more careful with the euro, on the one hand, be more careful, and on the other, the euro may well get out of hibernation, which will provide opportunities for earning. And finally, a few words about the oil market. IPO Saudi Aramco the initial public offering is expected to raise at least $25.6 billion, making it the largest ever with a capitalization of $ 1.88 trillion. The oil market more than calmly reacted to this news. Nevertheless, so far our position on oil remains unchanged - we will continue to search for opportunities for oil purchases on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
Strange last week, the OPEC decision & near futureThe reasons for the markets getting out of “hibernation” are an active news background interspersed with the news. Recall, it was launched by Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel from Argentina and Brazil and at the same time accuse these countries of currency manipulation. What was perceived by us as an expansion of the trade war and a possible beginning of the currency war. Well, the week ended with the publication of statistics on the US labour market, as well as the completion of the OPEC meeting. Let's start with statistics on the US labour market. Honestly, it surprised us. The numbers came out abnormally high for the current reality of the US economy (+ 266K with a forecast + 180K). Also, the unemployment rate fell to its record low marks (3.5%). The growth of the dollar against the backdrop of such excellent data was logical. But, given the anomalous nature of the given data, we would not be in a hurry to conclude. At least one more confirmation is needed that + 266K is not a coincidence, but a pattern. So on Monday, we will rely on local profit-taking in the dollar after Friday's growth, and therefore we will look for points for its sales. Note that on Friday our recommendation for news trading in the USDCAD worked out perfectly: excellent US data overlapped with bad figures on the Canadian labour market, as a result, the USDCAD soared by 100 points. Perhaps the most important event in terms of the consequences of the past week was OPEC’s decision to further reduce oil production from 1.2 million to 1.7 million from January 1, 2020. So, we can talk about the OPEC + agreement №3 (recall, the first one, provided for a reduction of 1.8 million barrels, the second one 1.2 million barrels per day). At the same time, Saudi Arabia made an unexpected statement of readiness on its part to further reduce production by another 400 thousand b / d. That is, the total reduction may reach 2.1 million barrels. This is the highest reduction since the cartel's attempts to stabilize the situation in the oil market. Despite the rather modest oil growth on Friday, such an outcome of the OPEC meeting is a very strong bullish signal. So this week, we will look for points for oil purchases. It would seem that after such a busy week the markets need a break, but you should not count on it. This week promises to be even more volatile. Key events are the announcement of the Fed decision on monetary policy parameters in the US, the ECB in the Eurozone, as well as elections in the UK. And although both events seem relatively predictable, there is enough time for surprises. How to make money on each of this news we will write a bit later. As for our positions, we do not see any reason to change our basic strategy (except oil). Therefore, we will continue to buy safe-haven assets (gold is simply perfectly substituted), sell the dollar, and this week we will actively build up a long position on the pound - the victory of conservatives in the UK parliamentary elections will have to hit the pound higher. we will buy oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
ridethepig | Buying Dips In Euro...A very good time to update the Euro chart after the infamous "Worm in the apple". For those who have not played before I highly recommend seeing the textbook examples from the playbook here: EUR holding well and failing to give anything back to bears after our flawless swing earlier in the week (but also not taking the widely mentioned key 1.11xx resistance). While its both unsurprising and clear that risk markets are less sanguine, perhaps what is surprising is the resilience the Euro has shown. For those macro players this is screaming loudly !!!! that FX positioning is changing into yearend and the flight to quality into USD is losing its importance . The technical jurisdictions are clearly mapped with 1.109x acting as resistance, if US data undershoots again today a break of the highs is in play. Those looking to add bullish exposure should track the 1.103x support. Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term swing: I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials. This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD . The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency. Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues. Good luck to all those trading the buy side and today's data. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Long
by ridethepig
5
Worm In The USD Apple!! An live example of position execution in EURUSD...Vol has been trading at all time lows with EUR in a 10 tick weekly range. I am looking to fade the extremes. For the execution here we have infamous Worm In The Apple alerts triggering... I am going to give some room for bears to run the stops to the downside again. In usual circumstances it will be a good opportunity for bears to load, however smart money who understand the macro flows in play will ping the lows into year-end. This is for expert traders only, for those new and first timers who haven't played "Worm In The Apple" you can see a live examples of the exact same flows in GBPJPY here: For the macro flows we can comfortably lean on the next wave in EURUSD: Lastly the Long-term chart from 2018: Those tracking the buy side can use this chart to know in advance that 1.0975 will be bid, a lot of demand interest from private clients I work with month and year end positioning in play. Genuinely most of the time the stops will only hold on a solid price driver, the move down I expect to be soft and flimsy allowing transition of ownership. Best of luck all those looking to bid the lows, please keep the support coming with a like and comment your ideas, suggestions and questions.
Long
by ridethepig
3
Euro Funded Carry Trades!This time I have an update to the macro chart to show the impact of increased borrowing on the Euro as European banks continue to led abroad. The flows are very complex in nature but very easy to track, we have two major forces in play which will serve the main course for the theme in 2020. I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials . This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD. The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency. Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues. For the chart deck today we have: (i) A quick review of the wave count we have been tracking in this leg: (ii) While we can continue to comfortably lean on the long-term macro chart posted from 2018: Risk assets continue painting a positive story with Equities marching higher, cyclicals outperforming defensives and small caps outperforming large caps. However, rates and commodities clearly were not copied into the email with global yields and industrials stuck in first gear. Recommend all to bookmark this as an early warning sign of what is coming in 2020. Perhaps the most interesting highlight of all comes from EM FX which continues to underperform vs yields and equities. Those following the previous conversations from 2018 will remember we traded this theme before; the same mainstream media in 2018 are selling the 2020 story as domestic EM related problems - well we know from experience in 2018 that these issues soon turned out to be a global pandemic. Thanks all for keeping the likes and comments coming.
Long
by ridethepig