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Navigating the Market : EURUSD 21st Sept 2019In terms of sentiment & fundamental analysis, last week and this coming week I have established a bias**. The bias is that I am moderately bearish on EURUSD (weak bearish) ECB is in quantitative easing mode whilst the Fed had done a hawkish interest rate cut. **There will be a week when I do not have a fundamental/sentiment bias due to my limited knowledge on the matter but when I do, I put this bias on top of anything else, above Technical Analysis. Having said that though, I rely heavily on Technical Analysis to tell me where and when to trade. In terms of Technical Analysis, the EURUSD is still in bearish mode (tho weakening). I look at the Daily Chart, even though our eyes would scream "EURUSD has gone bearish too long now". That is classical retail trader way of thinking. Picking tops and bottoms, claiming Euro is too cheap etc. I disagree with this completely. I am NOT saying the price would continue moving another 200-300 pips downwards (even though that is what I am anticipating because I am, after all, bearish bias EURUSD) but the average leg/wave for EURUSD (Daily Chart) before it retraces more than 38% of the impulsive wave, is 589 pips. Current wave/leg barely touches the average. So, anyway.. quick hindsight-reading-the-left-side-of-the-chart analysis to make me sound stupidly smart: the EURUSD had been trading in the range since 5th September. It is true on the 12th and the 13th this pair broke above the trading range but that was due to the institutional liquidity run (conveniently coincided with the ECB Rate Decision). The pair traded back inside within the range until NY closes on Friday. Now, time to read the right side of the chart instead. The nearest liquidity that I have identified is in between 1.10250 and 1.10400. Small retracement usually has stacks of orders that institutions love to consume. If price enters this zone I will be on Bearish standby mode waiting for a short signal. If the level I explained above would be broken through then I will be looking at the next level which is between 1.10750-1.0900. It would break the Friday High and that usually activates my bearish mode. Risk Events on Monday for the EU are the Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI and German Flash Services PMI. Nothing for the U.S
Short
by sufiansaid
Dax - Continued Upward Momentum Post ECBWe still see the Dax moving higher after the ECB despite not all the governors agreeing that moving forward with more QE is the solution to the Eurozone's economic struggles. This is due to reduced tensions in the US/China trade war and the dovishness of global central banks with even the FED on Wednesday indicating it will re-introduce QE. Therefore we maintain our long view and see the Dax reaching 13000 in the coming months with a near term target at the recent beginning of July high of 12655.
XETR:DAXLong
by KQMarkets
Preparing for Fed verdict, analyzing the state of the oil marketThe attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure led to the biggest jump in global prices. The correction was not observed until the American session started. We recommended on Tuesday to open short positions in oil because we were confident in the corrective movement and the end, the recommendation justified itself at 100%. In just 10 minutes, oil lost over 4%. The reason for the decline was the information that Saudi Arabia has officially confirmed - production capacity will be restored by the end of September. And to compensate for losses in production associated with the attack, the Saudis will increase production up to 12 million bpd by the end of October. So those of our readers who trust our experience and analytics should have made good money. As for trading on the oil market today, then after the strongest fall yesterday, everything looks rather ambiguous. And although we continue to incline toward asset sales you should be careful with that. As for the Fed and the Open Market Committee. An event that was devoid of intrigue just a couple of weeks ago (100% of traders set a minimum rate reduction of 0.25) may surprise. The current probability of a Fed rate cut is slightly above 60%. And if you take into account that yesterday's data on industrial production in the USA were frankly surprising: 0.6% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m and July outcome -0.1% m / m, the Fed can keep the rate unchanged. Our position remains unchanged. We expect the rate to be lowered by 0.25%. There are enough reasons for this: an interest rate reduction by ECB rate last week, a deterioration of the US labor market and the US economy condition as a whole, threat of a global recession and intensified trade war, multiplied by the risk of a US military campaign in Iran - all of this obliges the Fed to act and reduce the interest rate to prevent the US economy downfall. Anyway, reinsurance is better than solve the consequences duo to the lack of action. Accordingly, our position on the dollar today is also unchanged - we will sell it. At the same time, we do not forget the euro and its movement after the ECB meeting last week. The probability of false movements is great and it is extremely important to follow a predetermined plan. But at the same time, it is worthwhile to put stops so as not to go against the market will. In addition to the decision of the Fed and the subsequent explosion of volatility in the foreign exchange market, it is worth paying attention to inflation data from the UK and Canada. As for the UK. Despite Johnson's unsuccessful meeting in Luxembourg, the pound did not react that much. This means that we will continue to look for an opportunity to buy the British pound. First of all, against the euro and the US dollar. The tactics of buying gold in the area of local lows continue to be justified, so we will continue to adhere to it today.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD Under Pressure! But For How Long?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #fxmajors #audusd, #gbpusd and #eurusd. They are all under pressure for different reasons: EURUSD - ECB's Lane dovish on ECB's inflation target - Italian CPI weakening GBPUSD - BoJo goes to Brussels empty-handed - Brussels not sure if extension will help AUDUSD - RBA reveals plans to cut more if necessary - Bank could cut twice more in 2019 to support inflation and employment goals Meanwhile, everyone stresses out about #FOMC! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
EURUSD - Still Short Post ECBEURUSD rose last Thursday following the ECB meeting as the governors were not in agreement that moving forward with more QE is the solution to the Eurozone's economic struggles. However, the currency pair failed to break the key resistance level at 1.112 and has since been dropping helped by stronger than expected US retail sales which came through at 0.4% vs 0.2% forecast. Additionally, USD Michigan consumer sentiment came through at 92 vs 90.8 forecast and we see further downside pressure on EURUSD despite an expected 25bps rate cut at the FED meeting on Wednesday.
Short
by KQMarkets
EUROUSD|BREXIT|TRADE|ECONOMIC GROWTH|PREMIUM[Short Term]ANALYSISEURO|USD: Episode (1 )- Series: Major Currencies and Currency Indices -18th of August 2019 (8-9 Minute Read) 3 Contingencies upon which the timing of this analysis is based on: Brexit (Finally) Happening in the next 6 months , similarly expecting a US/China Trade deal in the same time-frame, and of course later on Trump winning 2020 . I have to reiterate here, that I will never include any personal political opinions in my analysis- he is the current president( and most likely for 2 terms) . My primary job is to evaluate the impact of his administration on the markets. Since that's been said, let's start with the basics . Left chart is the Monthly EURUSD , right chart is the x2 Weekly Chart . While I was analysing the chart patterns and moving averages, the 2 weeks chart gave much better clues than the weekly one. With the 3 named contingencies, a probability model with expected values can be build which obviously can't be performed by an individual investor. Even if these contingencies do not play out the same way this chart is build on, the most value part of this analysis either way, are the pitchforks, MA trendlines and the wave/harmonic pattern labelling (Which EUR/USD will most likely continue to follow). Since most people on this page are traders, firstly I will go in detail on the x2 Weekly chart. Zoomed out x2 Weekly Chart Based on the drawn pitchfork, trading EURUSD in the last couple of months has been extremely easy. Until the deadline of Brexit(this October), I do not see a reason why this trend won't continue down to (Y) or further. The more difficult part to predict is the formation of the second (X). No matter how bad Brexit is to Europe, it will relieve pressure on the Euro. In addition, the current situation is already priced in, so once brexit occurs, after the initial sell-off I wouldn't be surprised if there is a shift of momentum to (X) . The most likely target range for (X) would be in between 1.14 and 1.16 . The longer Brexit is prolonged, the longer the current negative momentum will last. Lastly, 2020 is an election year in the US , and this will be a supplementary factor that might ease of the pressure on the Euro in 2020( Especially if a prospective Democrat runs versus Trump) . On this point, we will have to continue by analysing the monthly chart. Zoomed out, Monthly EURUSD Chart Q: With the current setup; Brexit and US/China Trade deal occuring, what will happen with the Euro ? -Primarily it will follow the drawn Monthly Pitchfork . When it comes to the Butterfly setup , it is just an idea that's the most logical in this buildup. Point (A) in the Butterfly signifies the rejection of the euro bulls attempting to re-enter the previous triangle and break-off from the ichimoku monthly cloud and the 100 Monthly MA(Purple/Orange line) . Furthermore, it can be observed from the Monthly Pitchfork , since the 2nd part of 2018, it is clear that the EURUSD has been trading within the 0.5 and 0.25 bands of the pitchfork. This is quite a long shot, but I am expecting another ichimoku cloud breakout rejection at (C) , followed by an election win from Trump. In this scenario, the EURO will temporarily end up below 1(0.95) against the Dollar at point (Z). Concluding this analysis , I am expecting a continuation of the ECB's dovishness and easing until a good portion of the European Banks collapse . On this point I am quite serious; how in the world does the ECB, expect European banks to be sustainably profitable in the fixed income divisions with such low rates ? The only way is to cut the financing and stop giving out credit, and end up in a typical "Credit Crunch" situation (That throughout history has been the most common cause for recessions) . Once a US/China deal occurs , the ECB would relatively keep being dovish compared to the FED- adding up additional pressure on the Euro . This is a continuation of my argument in my last thoroughly historical analysis of US Monetary policy(Linked as #2 down below). Oh and not to forget- there will be plenty recession uncertainties this autumn and the following spring(VIX Analysis, Linked #1). And let me be clear, NO ONE knows exactly how the markets will behave. (Give me your feedback people, don't be shy! If you disagree, that'll be even better; it'll just make up for a great discussion in the comments) |Step_Ahead_oftheMarket| >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! {Make sure to check out my previous ideas and my series on US( SPX ) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors} 1. PART 1-VIX: Volatility Index 2. PART 2-FRED: FED SuperCycle Interest Rate 3. Series Finale ; Episode 11: US Utilities( XLU ) Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels. Wish that tview had a copy-right option, but it is what it is.
Short
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
10
EURCHF - BUY - 12th September 2019Hi Traders, here is my analysis on EURCHF buys. This is based on the consensus for ECB today (in 36 mins of time of writing), which will create a short spike down for potential longs (if goes as planned). Combining this with the technicals, we can see 2 levels that are yet to be filled, on the weekly fib, and a daily fib. Of course, if news comes out the other way, then this analysis is no longer useful. I just wanted to share how I can combine the fundamentals with the technicals.
Long
by Bradmerry
What happens to euro, the price of Brexit and Trump's rebatesYesterday turned out to be busy and volatile. The ECB has eased monetary policy in the Eurozone. ECB cut the deposit rate by 0.1% to -0.50%, announced new purchases of assets (the ECB will buy government bonds at 20 billion euros per month, starting November 1). There was a signal - weak economic data: industrial production in the Eurozone in July fell by 0.4% (analysts expected a decrease of only 0.1%). Not surprisingly the euro fall against this background. Actually, in yesterday’s review, we predicted such a development of events and recommended selling the euro. So those of our readers who follow our recommendations should have made good money on euro sales. The amazing thing started after has gone down by more than 100 basis points. After Mario Draghi said that the probability of a recession is low, the euro went up. Despite this growth, we believe that the euro should be sold. In the end, on one side - facts (lower rates and buyback program expansion, weak economic data), and on the other - the words that everything is not that bad. So today we will sell the euro. First of all, against the yen and the pound. It was possible to earn on gold purchases yesterday. As we predicted, difficulties gold experienced were temporary and yesterday's growth is evidence of this. Gold growth took place from the information that Trump has delayed the use of part of the tariffs, and China has expressed its willingness to buy agricultural products from the United States. But even this could not stop the growth of gold. The same with the euro, Draghi's comments have so far turned the situation upside down. We do believe that the decline in gold value last night is a great opportunity to buy it cheaper. The UK government considered the possible consequences of a no-deal. In general, everything turned out to be not that good: lack of food and fuel, job loss, riots, problems in logistics, the closing of several oil refineries and so on. Once again confirms that the deal is important and needed. So the recommendation to buy the pound remains relevant. Also, data on consumer inflation in the US were published yesterday. They are very important since next Wednesday the Fed will announce its decision on monetary policy parameters. According to published statistics, US consumer inflation in August was 1.7% year-on-year, lower than the Fed’s forecasts and target. This means that the Fed’s hands have been untied to lower rates on Wednesday. For the dollar as a whole, this is a negative signal, so we recommend selling it. And a few words about the oil market. Sales in the past couple of days have been linked to Trump's hints that sanctions on Iran may be partially lifted. Since the oil market is already on the verge of surplus, the appearance of an additional 1-2 million barrels of oil per day will be a sentence for buyers
Short
by Trade24Fx
EUR,USD,JPY Go Nuts After ECB! Fed, BoJ Expectations More DovishIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse EURUSD and USDJPY! Euro, dragged lower by the reinstation of the QE programme, was able to reverse post-ECB losses on the back of: - Limited rate cut compared to markets expectations (only 10 basis points) - Draghi's call on governments for fiscal stimulus (supporting EA economies?) - Widening yield differential against the dollar (ECB can't move lower, Fed can) - Expectations that the Fed will cut next week (a weaker dollar) On the other hand, the yen was also negatively affected by ECB's decision to ease. But with an ultraloose policy in the books for quite a number of years now anyway, easing would be worst in Japan rather than in the US. Hence the bullishness in USDJPY! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
What to expect from ECB and what to do with the euro, US inflatiAnnouncement of the ECB decision on monetary policy in the Eurozone is what everybody waiting for. Analysts are expecting lowering rates, a new quantitative easing program (an increase in bond buybacks) and all kinds of support signals from the ECB for the European economy. What are the chances? In our opinion, the chances are high enough. The fact is that the Eurozone economy is sending more and more signals about problems and the upcoming recession. Recall the German GDP growth rate in the second quarter (below zero), negative retail sales in the Eurozone and business activity indices below 50. Everything is decisively in favor of the need for ECB intervention. And although representatives of the Central Bank are supporting fiscal stimulus, it is obvious that the ECB is expected to act. What does the softening of an already ultra-soft monetary policy mean for the euro? It means that the euro will be under pressure and it needs to be sold. Against the yen, against the pound and even against the dollar. At least that is what we plan to do today and possibly in the foreseeable future (the final position will depend on the actual decisions of the ECB). Also, today it is worth paying attention to data on consumer inflation in the United States. Recall that next Wednesday the Fed should decide whether to reduce the rate or not. In this light, inflationary data can either sow doubts or remove them completely. Weak data (low inflation) will make it clear to the Fed that you can safely reduce the rate. In the end, the central bank’s main goal is to control inflation, and then help to ensure economic growth. Accordingly, weak data will be another reason for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. Trump, meanwhile, continues to escalate, urging the Fed to lower rates to 0%. As for other trading ideas, we traditionally recommend buying gold and selling the Russian ruble. Pound purchases also remain a priority.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD prior the ECB Meeting definitely worth a deeper lookToday the ECB Meeting takes place. At 13:45 the Interest Rates will be announced here a cut is expected and already priced into the markets. At 14:30 it should get really interesting here Draghi will hold his last important speech at the ECB, it is expected that this speech will be very dovish kind of a farewell present from Draghi and we have seen that the markets definitely have priced in the outcome of this speech already, but could it actually be that that at this point of time too much has been priced in? We will see shortly....
Long
by JonasBenjaminFriedrich
EURUSD - Remain Flat Ahead of ECB, then Act AccordinglyThe ECB is expected to do 4 things: cut rates by 0.1% to -0.5% (1), with the mitigating measure of tiering (2). Furthermore, the market expects and extension of forward guidance (‘at present or lower…well past the horizon of net asset purchases’) (3); the market expects the reintroduction of QE for 12 months at a pace of 30-40 bln per month (4). The market is expecting a bazooka…but the Shadow ECB council suggested that Draghi will not be able to deliver the full package. Since the market is expecting a bazooka, obviously the sensitive side is the hawkish surprize. DO NOT TRADE AHEAD OF THE DECISION. Wait for the evidence and then act. We will update this chart as appropriate, after the decision.
by Sam_Eder