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EURUSD - Short - Pre ECB Thursday We still see EURUSD moving lower towards 1.09 but first it would have to break the resistance level at $1.102. We are confident it can do this as the dollar sustained gains over the week against the euro despite a weak non farm payroll number, coming in at 130K vs 160K expected. Furthermore, the ECB meeting on Thursday where the ECB is expected to cut rates from -0.4% to -0.5% and introduce additional stimulus could lead to further downside pressure for EURUSD.
Short
by KQMarkets
EUR/USD short term rallyAfter printing a new low near 1.0925, the Euro found enough buyers to recover above the 1.10 level and is now trading near the first resistance at 1.1040 which is the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the latest decline. Also, looking at the recent candles, the recovery doesn't seem to have ended but is also facing critical resistance near 1.1060 and a potential big stimulus package from the ECB, expected to be announced during its monetary policy on the 12th of September. It is worth noting the descending channel the pair is trading in, a potential support/resistance area to trade in. Good luck.
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EURCAD Weekly Trendline Violated! Price Likely To Target 1.43500Have a look at the main weekly TF for EURCAD. The horizontal lines represents support and resistance levels taken from the monthly TF. The July's monthly candle closed below 1.47000 support and additionally the August's Candle formed a strong doji rejecting and closing below the 1.47000 support. This is a strong indication that the price would likely gather pace towards the next support present at 1.43500. Furthermore, the Longterm trendline on weekly and monthly charts was violated, Further suggesting a decline is on the cards! The chart above is Monthly TF charts of EURCAD indicating the LONG-TERM Trendline violation and monthly candle breaching and closing below the support. Fundamentally the EUR is bound for further incoming weakness as the ECB is struggling to hit their inflation target and the new incoming president has already suggested the rates could further go into negative territory in order to support the growth. I am already SHORTING the EURCHF, which has slight correlation to this pair and furthermore i am already SHORT on the USDCAD. Due to these factors and i am not willing to take this trade because it would increase my risk exposure and violate rules of trading. For those of you who would like to take this pair SHORT, you could do this at your own risk with the target of 1.43500 and RR of 1:1. This trade in my view is a high probability trade with many confluence factors in favor of us. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Fite for Brexit: getting ready for hot SeptemberBe concern working with the pound. Boris Johnson's decision to shut down parliament for five weeks in order ... controversial plan to suspend the UK's parliament for five weeks. The Queen has approved an order to prorogue the UK Parliament. Boris Johnson seriously set his sights on leaving without a deal. Of course, there is a chance that this is just his attempt to strengthen his position in negotiations with the EU, well knowing Johnson’s temperament, we no longer exclude the most radical scenarios. The first week of September may be decisive for Brexit: time the opposition has to pass a law that does not allow an exit without a deal. Among other options - a vote of no confidence in the government, the dissolution of the Parliament and early elections. So, it will not be boring, pound volatility in September are guaranteed. For intraday trading, this is an opportunity to make money trading with pound pairs. So we will continue to monitor the development of events and will keep our readers informed of what is happening. Yesterday's US GDP data came out in line with forecasts: + 2.0% y / y. This means that the data has been revised downward. Statistics on the US labor market will be published, in particular, data on the NFP will be published next weak, a serious driver for a powerful dollar movement is not expected. Extremely weak figures were published on consumer inflation in Germany. In general, the concerns about one of the best Eurozone economy raises. Based on this, yesterday’s comments by the future head of the ECB, Michel Lagarde, that the ECB has tools to deal with the recession and should be prepared to use them if it is necessary. Against this background, we will continue to recommend avoiding buying euros against anything. But sales of it still seems to be a good trading idea. As for the trade war. The markets did not understand whether Trump was called from China or not. New tariffs for goods from China come into force on Monday. And this means that the trade war is not over. However, in September, the Chinese delegation should arrive in Washington so the chance to stop still exists. We will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday basis. Moreover, safe-haven assets today are something that worth to buy.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
1
Dollar fails Powell’s test, China and Trump keep tensionsFor the whole last week we were waiting for a symposium in Jackson Hole to be held (The Economic Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world. ). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday was the main event. The markets were waiting for the “official” confirmation of monetary easing by the Fed, the ECB and other central banks. Attention focused on a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell for news on whether it will cut interest rates for a second time this year to boost the world's largest economy. But at the same time, he did not specify a time limit. China intends to raise tariffs on US imported goods total $ 75 billion the decision was made in response to the USA. Besides, the import tax on American cars and auto parts will be increased. Trump, of course, reacted extremely nervously to such actions by China, promising to take retaliatory measures. China has a deserved reputation for intellectual property theft. On Friday, Trump estimated China robs the US of “hundreds of billions” a year in ideas. So there is a reason to believe that a very hot and hectic week awaits us. In this light, buying safe-haven assets seems like a good trading idea. But once again we note that the choice of the entry point is extremely important. The upcoming week promises to be calm. Attention should be paid only on the US GDP. Otherwise, the attention will be focused on the confrontation between the USA and China, as well as the Fed. Our trading preferences this week: selling the dollar, finding points for buying gold and the Japanese yen, buying the British pound and selling the Russian ruble. Also, oil sales seem appropriate.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Euro suffers, pound is growing, & dollar waits for PowellPowell speaks in Jackson Hole that is what everybody is waiting for. Fed minutes from the meeting also showed the lack of unity among the Fed members. That might lead to the fact that the rate can be either lowered in September or left unchanged. That is complete uncertainty. That is why Powell's comments are that important. Markets still believe in the rates cut, and afraid to sell the dollar without any existing facts. So Powell’s “pigeon” comments are capable of setting off dollar selling in the foreign exchange market. Therefore we recommend the short dollar. However - if Powell does not give any clear comments, markets may perceive this as the Fed’s unwillingness to cut the rates in September, which could lead to a wave of dollar purchase Statistics on business activity in the Eurozone and the United States came out. As for the data from Europe on the one hand, the Eurozone Composite PMI was better than expected above 50, as was the PMI in the services sector. On the other hand, data from Germany showed a sharp deterioration in the situation, and at the highest pace over the past 6 years: respondents are expecting production to decline in the foreseeable future. The United States also upset. PMI indices came out much worse than expected, and the manufacturing index generally came out below 50, which indicates a reduction in business activity in the United States. The publication of the last ECB meeting minutes showed that Central Bank officials at their meeting on July 25 discussed the benefits of combining two measures to lower interest rates and bond purchases. Recall that the ECB left its policy unchanged last month, but made it clear that it was preparing to reduce its already negative rate and resume buying bonds in September. So, the euro does not look like the best thing to buy. We recall our recommendation to sell the euro against the pound. Moreover, Johnson is stepping up towards agreeing with the EU. Even though Europe in every possible way welcomes his efforts: in particular, Merkel believes that a new deal with Great Britain is possible before the end of October. In general, the Big Seven Conference may be a kind of breakthrough in the stalemate with Brexit. We have strengthened our desire to buy the pound, especially at extremely attractive current prices.
Long
by Trade24Fx
An important movement on Eur/UsdThe FOCM will begin Wednesday evening to make the market and investors understand the next moves for the short and medium term and the ECB will follow the next day. It is very likely that the euro will come out even more devalued at the end of these two days. As the European Central Bank will almost certainly show a weak economic and political scenario in the eurozone. Talking about new money injections and further postponements of a rate hike; while the FED should ensure another rate cut within the year, but then continue with its restrictive economic policy. Because an important movement on Eur/Usd we open another long position from here to close by Wednesday evening to then close all the bullish positions and reposition ourselves short. The target is the 1.119 resistance.
Long
by BFCMInvest
EURUSD Short Crucial Week FED minutes/ Jackson HoleEURUSD has been dropping since our last analysis on the 12.08 and we are at a crucial stage if we can break the $1.10959 support level we expect further downside. However, this is a very a important stage for the currency pair as FED Minutes on Wednesday and Chairman Powell's comments at Jackson Hole will likely lead to significant volatility and price action. This is particularly the case if the FED changes it's rhetoric on further interest rate cuts in the near term and indicates there will be further rate cuts.
Short
by KQMarkets
Forex Markets Wobble on Italy CrisisThe forex markets waggled after Italy Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini called for a snap election. Salvini urged the prime minister to reconvene parliament to back his claim that the coalition government is no longer solid. The EURUSD pair clocked in some losses after the news broke out. Additionally, stocks and bond markets in the EU zone reacted more furiously. Traders sold off Italian assets swiftly. Italy’s political tensions resulted to wider yield spread between German and Italian bonds. This isn’t welcome news for the common currency, which has already been suffering pressure. Meanwhile, traders are also becoming increasingly dovish. They are betting that the European Central Bank could implement a more aggressive September rate cut, increasing dovish expectations. As of writing, there is a 27% probability of a 20-basis-point cut in ECB’s deposit facility rate. That’s way higher than the previous 12% probability. Snap Elections, Forex Markets to Recover? Salvini’s call for snap election is quite obviously a move to solidify his power. He heads the right-wing popular Lega party. According to Salvini, the failure of the Five Star Movement’s attempt to derail plans for a high-speed rail link was evidence the coalition couldn’t govern. He said Italian needed “certainty,” with a government that “does things, not a ‘Mr. No.’” Salvini is enjoying massive support from opinion polls, being a populist and mainly because of his stance against illegal immigration. The forex markets will probably get over the fiasco speedily, with the euro likely getting back some of its losses. The euro zone also absorbed the French industrial production data for June. The data could be consistent with the dismal pattern in Germany. The dollar index that gauges the buck’s strength against the other currencies barely moved. US President Donald Trump once again lashed out on Twitter against the Federal Reserve. However, it didn’t have much effect on the markets, which recovered quite easily and with barely an inconvenience.
by Financebroker
EURUSD - Short Post FED 1.09 next targetWe have been short EURUSD for a while and yesterday's FED meeting where Powell announced a 25bps rate cut but indicated there would be no further cuts led to EURUSD dropping from 1.116 to 1.104. This is because the EU is looking to cut rates and embark on quantitative easing due to the weakness in the Eurozone economy. Therefore we are holding our short position and now expect the currency pair to hit levels not seen since 2017 below 1.05 in the coming months. However, we will start taking profit from 1.09 as we await further developments in particular US data releases starting with ISM manufacturing today and non farm payrolls tomorrow.
Short
by KQMarkets
The Fed, the Banks of Japan and EnglandAt the last meeting, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate remain unchanged. Also, Mario Draghi said that officials had not discussed the rate cut. Accordingly, the euro has a good chance this week to rebound from the medium-term range lowest level. In this regard, our position on the euro - we buy primarily against the dollar. Boris Johnson Became U.K. Prime Minister, Replacing Theresa May. Markets are frankly afraid of Johnson because of his aggressive position on Brexit. As a result, the pound is under strong downward pressure. But again, it is so far underwater right now given that there are no real reasons for this - market expectations are based on fears and rumours, not facts. We believe that common sense will eventually win and bet on the pound growth. Therefore, we recommend its purchase. The data on the US GDP for the second quarter will be published today. GDP probably expanded 1.8% in the second quarter, down from 3.1%. If the growth is 2.2-2.5%, then the dollar, perhaps, is not in danger until Wednesday. But if 1.8%, it cannot avoid sales. This will be the main event not only of the week but of the summer. Wednesday may well lay the foundation for a dollar downtrend in upcoming months or even years. We are still waiting for the Central Banks of Japan and England meetings, as well as the Eurozone GDP outcome and the US labor market data to come out. In general, it will not be boring. Our trading recommendations for the week are as follows. We will continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market, buying the pound against the dollar as well as against the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, and also buying the Japanese yen against the dollar. As for gold, in the oversold we buy and in the overbought area we sell gold.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Prepare for US GDP, ECB results and Fear IndexAt yesterdays' meeting, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. Nevertheless, the comments from the Central Bank turned out to be very dovish, opening the way to further monetary easing in September. For the euro, of course, this is not a positive sign. However, we do not throw the euro under a bus yet, because next week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve will likely mark the beginning of a prolonged period of lower interest rates, in our opinion, this event is more important than words about future easing (in the battle of facts with expectations, we will give preference to facts). Also, the euro is supported by the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, who said that officials had not discussed the rate cut. Our position is unchanged - we buy EURUSD with current price with stops lower than 1.11. The data on the US GDP for the second quarter will be published today. GDP probably expanded 1.8% in the second quarter, down from 3.1%. If the growth is 2.2-2.5%, then the dollar, perhaps, is not in danger until Wednesday. But if 1.8%, it cannot avoid sales. So, dollar current price seems to us extremely attractive for its sales. Meanwhile, the VIX Index ( it is also known by other names like "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index) dropped to Multi-Year Lows. That is, traders and investors have calmed down. That calls into the question the safe-haven assets growth demand and explains yesterday's weakness of the yen and gold. Given then the level of volatility in gold has increased, we prefer to trade with the Japanese yen. Its purchase against the dollar is still relevant for us. Our trading recommendations for today: We will continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar across the foreign exchange market entire spectrum, buying the pound against the dollar as well as against the euro, selling oil and the Russian ruble, and also buying the Japanese yen against the dollar. As for gold, in the oversold we buy and in the overbought area we sell gold.
Long
by Trade24Fx