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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 24, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar bounced off last week's established Mean Resistance level of 1.089 and reached our specified lower target of the Mean Support level of 1.082. The likelihood of revisiting the Mean Resistance level of 1.089 and reaching the Inner Currency Rally level of 1.091 is slim. On the downside, the currency is prone to hit the Mean Support level of 1.081 and target a well-established price level of 1.075.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 17, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar made a spectacular surge on the upside to our Inner Currency Rally 1.084 and a lot more. Current market conditions suggest that the Eurodollar may continue upward momentum to complete our Inner Currency Rally 1.091 via the newly created Mean Res 1.089. On the downside, the currency is prone to go down to Mean Sup 1.082 and possibly Mean Sup 1.076.
by TradeSelecter
Euro edges lower despite positive inflation reportThe euro has posted slight losses on Friday. EUR/USD is down 0.28%, trading at 1.0837 in the North American session at the time of writing. The April inflation report showed that headline inflation remained steady at 2.4% y/y, holding at its lowest level in almost three years. Services inflation and energy prices declined, while food, alcohol and tobacco prices were slightly higher. Monthly, headline CPI eased to 0.6%, down from 0.8% in March and matching the market estimate. The most significant news was the decline in core CPI, which excludes energy and food, alcohol and tobacco and is a more accurate indicator of inflation trends. The core rate fell to 2.7% y/y, down from 2.9% in March and matching the market estimate. Core CPI has now decelerated nine straight times and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. The European Commission announced earlier in the week that eurozone inflation is expected to drop to 2.5% in 2024 and fall to the 2% target in the second half of 2025. The European Central Bank has done a good job slashing inflation, which was running at 7% a year ago. The ECB has signaled that it is ready to shift policy and lower rates at the June meeting. ECB President Lagarde has widely hinted at a June cut but has remained mum about what happens after that. Lagarde doesn’t want to raise expectations of a series of rate cuts and then disappoint the markets if the ECB doesn’t follow through. There are no key economic releases out of the US today, leaving FedSpeak as the highlight of the day. Three voting members of the FOMC, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly and Adriana Kugler will deliver speeches which could provide some insights into future US rate policy. FOMC members have sounded rather hawkish, saying that restrictive policy is working and there is no rush to lower rates. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0850 and is putting pressure on support at 1.0832 There is resistance at 1.0872 and 1.0890
by OANDA
EURUSD Higher after US CPI but Policy Dynamics to WeighWednesday’s US CPI report showed a moderation in price pressures in April, following months of persistence, with headline inflation easing to 3.4% y/y and core to 3.6% y/y. Along with the miss in retail sales, markets strengthened their pricing for two rate cuts this year by the Fed, staring in September. The greenback fell as a result, sending EURUSD to the highest levels in nearly a month. this bring the March peak in the spotlight (1.0981), but we are cautious around the ascending prospects. US Inflation remains far from the 2% target, which along with strong economy and robust labor market have raised the bar for a Fed to pivot, leading policymakers to higher-for-longer narrative. Their European peers have made more progress on moderating price pressures and the economy struggles. As a result, the ECB looks more ready to lower rates, having hinted at a June pivot. The monetary policy differentially is likely to cap the upside and put pressure on EURUSD. Along with overbought RSI, there is scope for a retreat towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would shift bias to the downside and make the common currency vulnerable to the 2024 lows (1.0600). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 10, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar fluctuated around our significant Mean resistance level of 1.080. There are projections that the currency may experience an upward surge and complete the Inner Currency Rally of 1.084 before undergoing a downward transition to the Mean Support level mark of 1.074 and possibly further down to designated targets. However, it is also possible that the Eurodollar might go down to hit the Mean Support level of 1.074 from its current position.
by TradeSelecter
Pound shows little reaction as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is showing limited movement on Thursday. GBP/USD is up 0.15%, trading at 1.2515 in the North American session at the time of writing. The Bank of England kept the cash rate unchanged at 5.25% for a sixth straight time in a widely expected move. The British pound dropped slightly after the announcement but then recovered. The breakdown of the vote by the nine members of the MPC was noteworthy, as two members voted for a 0.25% cut, with seven voting to hold rates. At the April meeting, the vote was eight members in favor of a hold and one voting to cut rates by 0.25%. The meeting minutes made reference to the split vote and also noted a “range of views” among MPC members over inflation risks. Governor Bailey still has a solid majority but if additional MPC members veer away from Bailey’s stance, it will complicate his job and could affect his credibility. The markets were hoping that the BoE would use today’s meeting to signal a rate cut in June, much in the way that the European Central Bank essentially confirmed a June rate cut at its April meeting. Bailey said that “a change in the bank rate in June has neither been ruled out or a fait accompli”. Bailey also stated that the BOE could start to cut before the Federal Reserve, which has delayed plans to lower rates due to rising inflation in the US. The BoE would prefer to have the Fed move first, otherwise a BoE rate cut will hurt the British pound which could result in higher inflation. The Fed has put the brakes on plans to lower rates as inflation as proved stickier than expected. Fed members have said that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive and Boston Fed president Susan Collins said on Wednesday that inflation will take more time to fall than expected and added “there is no pre-set path for policy”. The Fed has been pouring cold water on rate cut expectations although the markets still expect two rate cuts before the end of the year. GBP/USD dropped below support at 1.2468 and put pressure on support at 1.2440 1.2497 and 1.2525 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 3, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced significant volatility during this week's trading session, with an upward movement that surpassed our Mean Resistance level at 1.075. As a result, a new resistance mark has been established at 1.080. However, it is projected that the currency will experience a downward transition to the Mean Support level mark of 1.066. It will dip further to retest the previously completed Inner Currency Dip at 1.060. Furthermore, the currency is anticipated to continue its downward trajectory, reaching our next Inner Currency Dip level at 1.054.
by TradeSelecter
Coming up: BOE's rate decision week Coming up: BOE's rate decision week Morgan Stanley has asserted that the Bank of England might still opt for an interest rate cut in the coming week, a stance that stands out amidst dwindling market confidence in such a move. Morgan Stanley’s opinion diverges notably from the consensus, which suggests an initial rate cut by the BOE in September. Backing Morgan Stanley's perspective is the decline in U.K. inflation to 3.2% in March from the previous month's 3.4%, although it fell short of analysts' projections of 3.1%. Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, is adamant that rate reductions are on the horizon for both the U.K. and the ECB, while the Fed might adopt a more cautious approach for now. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, which hinted at an impending rate adjustment last week, has cited escalating tensions in the Middle East as potential obstacles to these plans. Perhaps these same concerns weigh on the BOE? Technically, buyers of GBP/USD struggled to maintain levels above the resistance at the 200-day moving average, approximately at 1.2550. This scenario could potentially lead to a test of the recent cycle low observed at 1.2299. Conversely, if buyers manage to reclaim the 1.2500 level, they may challenge the 50-day moving average at 1.2612, followed by the April high at 1.2708.
by BlackBull_Markets
Confirmation of Bear Flag?? - EUHere I have EUR/USD on the 4Hr Chart! Since the LOW on Apr' 16th, Price has been traveling in what looks to be an Ascending Channel! Price today was unable to make a NEW HIGH to give us another test of the Rising Resistance and instead gave us quite the drop out of the Ascending Channel! With this break, I believe multiple confirmations are pointing to this price action being CONFIRMATION of PATTERN being a BEAR FLAG!! -RSI BELOW 50 -Price working BELOW DSR -Price BELOW 200 EMA -3-Point Sell Check Bear Flags are a strong continuation pattern typically giving investors the ability to foresee Selling Opportunities with Price giving a Strong Bearish Break of pattern, then to Test the Break of Pattern which is what I am currently waiting for!! -Once the current LOW has finished forming, I want to see price retrace to the Break of Pattern being in the ( 1.069 - 1.07 ) range for potential Sell Entries! *TP will be the Support Zone last visited in Oct. 2023 @ ( 1.0516 - 1.0462 ) *SL TBD
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
EURUSD Struggles at Key Resistance Ahead of the FedThe pair has managed to stage a rebound from its 2024 lows and reacts positively to today’s preliminary data from Eurozone, which showed Q1 GDP expansion and persistence in headline inflation. As such, the common currency continues its effort to surpass the pivotal resistance confluence, provided by the EMA200 and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the March-April slump. Successful outcome would negate the downside bias and bring 1.0885 in the spotlight. However, we are cautious around the ascending prospects. The path of least resistance is down, technically and fundamentally. A rejection of the aforementioned critical region would reaffirm the bearish bias and open the door to lower lows (1.0600). The monetary policy differential is unfavorable and EZ core CPI continued to decelerate. The European Central Bank is looking to change tack and slash rates as early as June, dictated by weak growth and progress on inflation. Its US counterpart on the other hand, has adopted a conservative approach due to strong economy, resilient labor market and persistent price pressures that raise the bar for a pivot. The next leg of the move will likely be determined by Wednesday’s policy decision from Fed officials and since no move is projected, investors will be looking for any updates around their rate intentions. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
Sights Set HIGH for EURJPY?!Here I have EURJPY on the Daily Chart! Currently you can see price back up at the Resistance Area of ( 164.3 - 165.3 ) after having tested the Rising Support 4 times with each time successfully having Strong Bullish reactions ... this Price Action has formed what looks to me to be a Bullish Triangle Pattern! Fundamentally, there's a lot to unpack but with JPY trading down at its 34 Yr Lows and the ECB looking at Rate Cuts soon .. Fundamentals could play a key sticky role! - EUR has their Final CPI and Final Core CPI y/y tomorrow morning followed by Lagarde Speaking so lets see how things begin to play out!! Technically, with this potential Bullish Triangle we are looking for continuation of this markets trend prior to entering this pattern! Back in Dec. '23, price made quite a Bullish Recovery off the 200 EMA and has shown great Bullish Momentum thus far! *If Price gives a solid Break and Close ABOVE the Resistance Area, this could give us a good area of potential Buy Entries -Beware of FALSE BREAKS!! *If Price Breaks and Closes BELOW the Rising Support, I'm no longer interested in looking for Buying Opportunities!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 19, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has completed our Inner Currency Dip of 1.060. However, further selling pressure is reviling a decline to the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.054. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.045. It is worth emphasizing, however, that an interim Dead-Cat rebound to the Mean Resistance level of 1.072 may be feasible before the Eurodollar resumes its downward trajectory.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has completed an Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. This momentum is expected to generate further selling pressure, resulting in a decline to the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.054. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.045. It is worth emphasizing, however, that an interim rebound to the Mean Resistance level of 1.075 may be feasible before the Eurodollar resumes its downward trajectory.
by TradeSelecter
Euro can’t find its footing after ECB pauseThe euro continues to stumble and is down for a fourth straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0653, down 0.67%. The euro has fallen 1.7% this week as the US dollar continues to flex its muscles against the major currencies. The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 4% for a fifth straight time on Thursday, as expected. Interest rates remain at record levels but Lagarde & Co. provided fresh hints that policy makers are looking to lower rates at the June meeting. The economic background appears favorable for a rate cut. Eurozone inflation has dropped to 2.4%, close to the 2% target and the economy is barely growing. ECB members, including those with more hawkish views, have been hinting at a June rate cut. The ECB statement echoed this view, saying if its confidence increases that inflation is moving towards the target “in a sustained manner”, then a rate cut would be appropriate. At her press conference, ECB President Lagarde noted that several members had voted in favor of a rate cut on Thursday. Lagarde added that the ECB could make a cut even if inflation remained above 2%, if the ECB was confident that inflation was moving in the right direction. It’s a very different story in the US, where the Federal Reserve is dealing with a surprisingly strong US economy. March nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations and US inflation climbed to 3.5%, up from 3.2% and above the forecast of 3.4%. Fed members are sounding hawkish and the markets have slashed rate cut expectations. After the hot US inflation report, Boston Fed President Collins said that the Fed may need to cut rates less than previously expected and New York Fed President Williams said there was “no clear need to adjust policy in the very near term”. The markets have lowered the odds of a June cut to just 24%, compared to 54% a week ago. A September cut was priced in at 91% a week ago but that has dropped to 72%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0651. Below, there is support at 1.0597 1.0749 and 1.0813 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Levels discussed on Livestream 11th April 11th April DXY: Needs to stay above 105 support area, before testing higher to 105.58 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5980 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6545 SL 20 TP 60 USDJPY: Buy 153.35 SL 20 TP 45 (watchout for possible intervention) GBPUSD: Consolidate to break 1.25, Sell 1.2490 SL 20 TP 100 (Hesitation at 1.2450) Counter Trend Opportunity EURUSD: Rejection of 1.08, Sell 1.0790 SL 20 TP 60 USDCHF: Buy 0.9170 SL 20 TP 55 USDCAD: Sell 1.3665 SL 30 TP 50 Gold: Break down below 2325 to trade down to 2305
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
Keep your eyes on the ECB today. EURUSD in the spotlight!EASYMARKETS:EURUSD Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
by easyMarkets
EUR/USD to slump again after ECB decision? The EUR/USD plunged after the hotter-than-expected CPI, as traders reevaluated the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. EUR/USD has now perhaps broken out of the range of its significant Simple Moving Averages. Now we might get another pushdown in the lead up to or after the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow. The April 2 swing low of 1.07245 may prove pivotal. The previous session's decline was the biggest single-day decline since March 2023, so it will be interesting to see if this bearishness has been exhausted. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged but perhaps point towards the start of its own rate cutting cycle in June. ECB officials have already begun discussing this timeline, so tomorrow’s announcement might lack the bite of a CPI print. Instead, traders could look for clues on future ECB policy during Christine Lagarde’s press conference following the rate decision.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has broken through our Mean Support level of 1.077 and has quickly risen to hover around the Mean Resistance level of 1.084. This momentum is expected to generate further selling pressure, resulting in a decline to the Mean Support level of 1.074. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is expected to reach an Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, it is essential to note that an intermediate fluctuation at the Mean Resistance level of 1.084 may require action.
by TradeSelecter
Euro extends gains as Services PMIs improveThe euro is on a bit of a roll and has pushed slightly higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0857, up 0.19%. The euro is up for a third straight day and has climbed 0.8% since Monday. Business activity improved across the eurozone in March. The eurozone services PMI rose to 51.5, up from 50.2 in February. The German reading improved to a revised 50.1, up from 48.3 in February. This marks the first expansion in Germany’s services sector in six months. Spain, France and Italy all showed stronger expansion in March. The 50.0 line separates contraction from expansion. The services sector has carried the eurozone economy as manufacturing continues to decline. The eurozone has managed to avoid a recession, but the economy remains fragile. At the same time, inflation has been falling faster than expected, and European Central Bank policy makers have the tough task of determining the appropriate time to start cutting the deposit rate, which is currently at a record high 4%. The markets are anticipating a rate cut in June and some ECB members have publicly stated that they support such a move. ECB member Robert Holzmann, considered a hawk on rate policy, said on Wednesday that he isn’t against a June cut but would want to see more data before making a decision. Holzmann added that if the ECB lowers rates in June and the Federal Reserve stays on the sidelines, this would reduce the effectiveness of the ECB lowering its deposit rate. In the US, employment numbers are in focus, with nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The markets are expecting a drop to 200,000 in March, compared to 275,000 a month earlier. Unemployment claims will be released later today and are not expected to show much change. The market estimate stands at 214,000, compared to the previous reading of 210,000.
by OANDA
Japanese yen flirting with 152The euro is showing little movement on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0777, up 0.05%. Inflation in the eurozone continues to decline. March CPI eased to 2.4% y/y, down from 2.6% in February and below of the market estimate of 2.6%. This matched November’s 28-month low and was driven by the continued slowdown in food inflation. Monthly, CPI rose to 0.8%, up from 0.6% but below the forecast of 0.9%. Core CPI also declined, with a reading of 2.9% y/y. This was below the February gain of 3.1% and just shy of the market estimate of 3.0%. Core CPI, which is considered more significant than the headline release, has declined for an eighth straight month and dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. Germany’s inflation report, which was released yesterday, also indicated that inflation dropped in March, with headline CPI easing to 2.2% and core CPI to 3.3%. The drop in inflation is encouraging news for the ECB, which meets next week. The central bank must balance weak economic activity, which would support another pause, against falling inflation, which would support calls to lower rates. The ECB is likely to maintain rates next week but there is a strong probability that it will press the rate-cut trigger at the June meeting. The ECB may want to prepare the markets for a shift in monetary policy and we could see some dovish signals at next week’s meeting, which might weigh on the euro. In the US, today’s ADP employment report kicks off a host of employment releases, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The ADP report isn’t considered a reliable precursor to NFP, but investors are interested in any labour reports they can analyse ahead of the NFP release. ADP came in at 140,000 in February and is expected to rise slightly to 148,000 in March. EUR/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.0753. Below, there is support at 1.0712 1.0808 and 1.0849 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 29, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: According to the Daily Chart Analysis for the week of March 22, the Eurodollar has successfully completed a Squeeze Currency Dip of 1.078, which was the primary target. Consequently, this momentum is projected to generate further selling pressure, leading to a decline to the Mean Support level 1.070. Ultimately, the Eurodollar is anticipated to hit an Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, it is essential to note that a potential intermediary rebound may occur, which could result in a move to a target of 1.084.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD falls to five-week lowThe euro has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0782, down 0.05%. It has been a bumpy road for the euro in 2024, as the currency has declined 2.3% so far this year. Earlier today, EUR/USD dropped as low as 1.0768, its lowest level since February 21. Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, continues to struggle and that is weighing on the eurozone as well as the euro. German consumer confidence is mired in negative territory and this week’s retail sales report was dismal, with a 1.9% decline m/m in February. This was shy of the market estimate of 0.3% and marked a fourth straight decline. On an annualized basis, retail sales slumped by 2.7%, a fourth straight decline. German and eurozone data has been weak, which is not surprising as elevated interest rates have dampened growth. The European Central Bank held the key interest rate at 4.0% for a fourth straight time this month and must decide on the appropriate timing for a rate cut. The April or June meetings appear the most likely times for a rate cut. ECB member Francois Villeroy was the latest ECB policy maker to weigh in, saying on Thursday it was important to make a “moderate cut”, even if the ECB decided to then resume holding rates. ECB member Fabio Panetta said the same day that the central bank was leaning towards lowering rates as inflation continued to decline. In the US, the week wraps up with the PCE Core Index, considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The index is expected to tick lower to 0.3% m/m in February, compared to 0.4% in January. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at a conference in San Francisco and the markets will be hoping for some insights about rate policy. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0765 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.0743 1.0798 and 1.0820 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA