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No Deal Brexit Worse than Slower GrowthI've talked extensively on how a no deal Brexit is more likely here: This is primarily my reasoning behind why I'm neutral to short on EURUSD in the medium- to long-term (1 to 3 months). There's plenty of other good reasons to be short EURUSD including continued weak data releases from the Eurozone, possible continuation of a recession in Italy, and potential negative growth for Germany in Q1 2019. While I think that the euro can make some moves to the upside, it is still probably limited to the downward channel with short-term monthly resistance in spite of a break in this resistance last week. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Focus will shift to additional ECB easing very soonThe removal of 2019 hikes is worth highlighting because it does not fully support the story we are being told from macro data meaning the bar is set high for any further hikes. History tells us it’s very unusual for the Fed to pause for a long time in hiking cycles before resuming meaning this is likely the end of hikes in the cycle. See tradingview for a more detailed review of the Fed. Focus will soon shift back to additional easing from the ECB who are more dovish than Fed so any upside will remain capped in EURUSD. I remain confident in the 1.09 forecast for Q2. We have PMIs tomorrow, inline or overshoots there will be enough to turn the ship south...otherwise we are set for more consolidation. Good luck
Short
by ridethepig
1
Expecting Bearish Movement !!Trend line, Price action, Expecting bearish movement, ECB President Draghi speaks on Wednesday , so there is a minor chance for price to go up during his speech or after. But hey traders trend line is our friend. Good luck!! Time to go to the gym for workout, need to be physically strong, it helps to become mentally strong. And i am sure you know how important it is to become mentally strong, if you want to become Forex millionaire.............)
Short
by Shourov_kk
"One and Done" ... An update to EURUSD for FEDOn the monetary side, Fed taking the spotlight so let’s start digging into the details… Expecting the Fed to lower the “dots” signalling one hike in 2019 … a “one and done” approach. June seems unlikely now as the Fed has started to focus on inflation to keep equity markets happy. My base case is for a hike in December meaning the dollar looks underpriced at current levels and with a lingering ECB easing risk premium EURUSD will start the leg lower after we clear Fed and PMIs. From a technical standpoint we are sitting at strong resistance, any kneejerks higher (unlikely) will attract a lot of selling interest. Best of luck all those trading Fed
Short
by ridethepig
2
Brexit, Bank of England and Norwegian kroneThe key event on Thursday was the announcement of the results of the Bank of England meeting. As expected, there were no surprises: the rate left unchanged, as the volume of the quantitative easing program. However, the statement that perhaps a gradual limited tightening of the policy may be needed, can be interpreted as a “hawkish” and this is good for pound. And before that, the British currency ignored the excellent data on retail sales in the UK in February (+ 0.4% m / m + 4.0% y / y, with the forecast -0.4% m / m + 3.3% y / y). The reason for such attitude is clear. This, of course, is about Brexit. Recall yesterday the EU had to give the UK a response regarding the postponement of Brexit. Brussels gave Teresa May a two-week delay. The current situation is: if next week the British Parliament does not approve the deal, then by April 12, Britain should decide whether to seek a much longer delay or British leave the EU without a deal. This could be used to buy the pound cheaper. Meanwhile, The Central Bank of Norway, raised the rate on Thursday. This is the second increase since last September. Against the background of the negative rates of the ECB, such actions of the Central Bank look simply defiant. As a result, the Norwegian krone continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. We recommend to pay attention to its medium-term purchases. Considering how aggressively the Bank of Norway is behaving. The current uptrend of the krona is in the process of being formulated Today is going to be kind of busy with macroeconomic statistics data such as: retail sales and inflation in Canada, indices of business activity in the Eurozone and the United States, so it is not going to be boring. Our basic trading positions are unchanged: we are looking for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market. We are buying oil and gold, increasing the short position in ruble, and now we are taking a medium-term long position in the Norwegian krone.
by Trade24Fx
Gold - favourable environment ($1320/25 and $1346.40 in play 2Q)Gold - favourable environment in uncertain world ($1320/25 and $1346.40 in play 2Q19) - Gold is the main beneficiary of the current path of softening tone from the world's most imminent central banks (ECB 7.03, Fed 20.03, RBA, BOC, PBOC, etc). - Liquidity is one of the factors supporting gold. The relaunch of TLTRO in Europe and the ending of QT in the US. - The final stage of the business cycle and slowing world economy is making gold attractive in terms of allocation a bit of assets (10%-15%) during next 4-6 quarters getting good average price. - Although gold isn't pretty cheap (at least inexpensive or smth equal to "hold") after 9.4% rally during last six months and 2.6% ytd it still has potential for rebound towards $1320/25, $1346.40 or even $1355/65 this year in case of more prominent debate on rate cut in Europe or the US. - Any profit taking in gold could be limited by support at $1283 or $1276 and weakness below $1300 seems to be a buying opportunity for short-term and mid-term speculative horizon. Bull case is intact until gold prices trade above EMA(200) at 1270$. - $1250 and lower looks like "cheap" gold in terms of long-term investments.
TVC:GOLDLong
by FXtape
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points. European Macros  The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects  The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FShort
by BFCMInvest
In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian indexIn line with other major global index, in the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index. The price reached the resistance area between 21450 and 21550 points. A break on the upside would have led to a continuation of this uptrend up to the next resistance zone located between 21700 and 21900 points. A rejected, ( because as we said "In the short term there is a retracement even by Italian index" ) seems to be happening, should bring the price to retest the key level of support identified by the EMA 200 periods and passing about 20500 points.European Macros The fundamental scenario remains strongly uncertain for the Eurozone. Especially after the last ECB meeting in which Draghi stated that it is not only possible to change monetary policy due to slow growth. It is necessary to restore a low-cost liquidity injection to stimulate the economy by the end of 2019. Fed Effects The uncertainty of the Fed is added to the ECB. In fact the Fed would seem to have decided to not raise interest rates. At least throughout this year, if not also the next. Due to a possible market destabilization with a restrictive monetary policy. In any case, even this choice has left uncertainty among investors who in the short term could liquidate long positions favoring a reversal of world indices.
FShort
by BFCMInvest
An update to EURGBP for BOENow is a good time for a quick chart update ahead of the BOE and Brexit countdown. PM May playing politics with a "Queens Gambit"….by asking for the short-extension till the end of June she is trying to force MPs hands to vote for her deal... Options from the EU are still either for (short) Mid-May or (long) lasting into 2020. The risk scenario which will send Pound flying down across the FX board is that the EU reject an extension. We are tracking the same flows towards the top of the range here, and confidence is increasing after the break yesterday. The damage is almost done technically, a rally through current levels will leave us past the point of no return. The first targets cleared and now 0.8841 remains the second target which is in play as early as this week. Well done everyone riding this one from the lows, it's not the time to start adding longs if you are not already positioned. Best of luck!
Long
by ridethepig
11
EURGBP Flash Crash Coming Soon..The previous idea "Strengthening the immune system" received a lot of traction and it is time for a quick update here ahead of the vote in HoC today. Volatility remains very high in the cross, and after the sharp drop overnight the ladder has been cleared for a move back through resistance at 0.8670. Watching this very closely and we have the potential for a huge move to the longer-term key area of interest with a Hard Brexit which remains in the region of 0.97 - 1.00. Good luck.
Long
by ridethepig
1
What the market expects from the fed ?Macro view  The market expected that the FED on this occasion would not change the value of the interest rate. This had already been discounted in previous sessions. At a fundamental level, the US economy is undergoing a slowdown due also to the shutdown and this, together with the unclear monetary policy, is causing uncertainty. Investors want to see if this aggressive monetary policy can continue or if a period of stalemate has begun. The possibility of a rate cut if the situation remains stagnant. Rates  For now it is very likely that interest rates can be resumed in the next FED meetings, as the indicators on which the FOMC is based are aimed at this. The rates can be cut towards the end of 2019 if the market does not liked this monetary tightening. This hypothesis would lead the indices to follow the strongly bearish December trend. Index  At this time DOW JONES, (like SP500 and NASDAQ) tested the respective resistance area and was rejected downwards. The target to which it will aim in the very short term (if Powell makes it clear that there will be further increases soon) will be the area set at 25000 points, then continue towards 24200 if the level just mentioned should have been violated to the downside. The same goes for SP500, which will target 2640 points. The NASDAQ  should go back to testing the 6900.
DJ:DJIShort
by BFCMInvest
Selling EUR against JPYAfter some positive news from Moody’s last Friday on Italy the headlines are starting to fade making this morning a great opportunity to start getting short EURUSD and EURJPY around current levels. The ECB introduced a risk premium on the EUR which is only going to increase as the EZ outlook softens. I like playing EUR against pockets of USD strength as we have the possibility for renewed pricing on Fed hikes in the picture and JPY via fiscal year-end repatriation flows. Best of luck to those trading Euro live this week
Short
by ridethepig
8
A buying opp for Silver as ECB confirm recession is comingFundamentally we have had a very fast leg down right on time for the Yen repatriation fiscal year end flows to begin. There is a lot more upside in the dollar move to come as investors are running to cash. Silver will naturally benefit from the risk-off nature of these flows, here we have a great buying opportunity for those wanting to invest in more coins. On the technical side we have completed our first impulsve wave leg to the upside and the retrace in wave 2 is coming to an end. Here building positions for the remaining legs in this move with an initial target of 17.0 Please see the gold charts attached for more information on the impact from a global slowdown on commodity pricing. Thanks for all the support guys, please remember to like and comment.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by ridethepig
2
An update to the EURUSD chart after a retrace from ECBThe latest rebound from the bottom of the channel has given a soft recovery. We are approaching key resistance areas and for those who are bearish on the USD you will need a constructive break above 1.13 to show anything meaningful in this recovery. I don't subscribe to the view that we have seen the highs in Dollar and expect these flows to continue well into the summer 2019. I am positioned as most of you already know for 1.09 and even 1.06/1.05 if we see maximum pain with a no-deal Brexit. For those who are trading the longer-term perspective , I would encourage you to view the monthly chart attached, this is a view I have maintained since last year and still expect a higher low to develop over the 1.03 lows from 2017. This will mark a very interesting buying opportunity, as the noise of a European collapse will have reached maximum volume and most will be screaming for a break of parity. Nevertheless, we will be talking more about this in a few months. All the best to those who are trading live.
Short
by ridethepig
EURJPY Likely To Fall Further! A SHORT trade SetupTRADE TYPE: SELL WHEN THE MARKET OPENS AT AROUND 124.800 LEVEL STOP LOSS: 126.750 TAKE PROFIT: 123.000 RR: 1:1 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS With the trendline and channel on daily charts broken convincingly, the cross is aiming to test the next crucial support that lies in the 123.000 level! Price has already given the confirmation and the short trade can be executed once the market opens on monday. There are other crucial technical analysis that are too long too explain behind this trade setup, all in all the analysis is based on weekly charts but the structure on the daily TF has given me enough confirmation to take this trade short FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Well what can be said about the EUR! ECB on thursday surprised the markets by its more than expected dovish announcement which sent all the EUR pairs into high selling pressure. The EUR is sentimented to fall further in the coming days. Shall there be any updates i will provide them here. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
EUR/USD: Week9 UpdateHi Guys, EUR/USD and DXY are unfolding their moves. Watch out for USD/JPY and Gold that seems lagging both. Strategy: See my last post in the related links below. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to like if you like the post and to follow if you want to receive notifications on new or updated ideas. Respect, Be Carefull and Enjoy:) Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
by cozzamara
The day after DraghiYesterday, Mario Draghi announced a new round of long-term and favorable conditions loans for the banking system. The new series of operations will be launched from September 2019 and will end in March 2021. The operations will be carried out every three months and each will have a two-year maturity. In addition, the ECB has confirmed what analysts had expected despite the last meeting at the end of 2018 (which suggested that in September 2019 there could have been a rise in rates), that is: there will be no change in the monetary policy adopted in the last years, keeping fixed interest rates at least until the end of 2019, but it is very likely that this policy will also be maintained during 2020. All of this, leaves macro analysis unchanged, it is likely that for the next few weeks the EURUSD will be laterally between 1.12 and 1.14, and then proceed in its main bearish trend with final target at 1.08 as soon as Powell resume monetary tightening. However, we expect a devaluation of the US dollar until March 20: our first target is 1.14 in the short term and then the area between 1.10 and 1.08.
Long
by BFCMInvest
EURUSD Sell offEURUSD Huge sell off today after ECB news slashing projected growth forecasts from 1.7% to 1.1% for 2019. Fundamentally Europe is struggling as an economy with Italy in a technical recession and the remainder of Europe struggling due to China slowing down and the Euro countries being reliant on trade. This all suggests near term growth to be weaker than originally anticipated. The central bank is offering new loans to banks, to help stimulate the economy by boosting spending. I believe the Euro will struggle temporarily before seeing better numbers towards the end of the year once China has repaired it's relationship with USA and Brexit is done and dusted. Technically, we have now made a new low. As traders we anticipated this due to the 61.8% of the recent swing high and swing low being tested, with a rising wedge and even psychological number of 1.14 being met and a third touch of a descending TL. From here I believe we will see a correction to at least 1.1300-13500. Generally when using the Fib tool, I look to target -127% as a target. Looking back on previous moves, we have not met this level as a target on the recent swings, therefore I believe we will see a correction at these levels. This idea would be invalidated on a break below this channel, and shorts executed upon a retest.
by UnknownUnicorn909211