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Time to start pricing Q3 hikesBy now you get the point, expecting dollar strength to enter into play over the coming sessions. Keeping it simple in a technical sense with stops above the highs and initial targets at the low of the range. There are extensions here as low as 1.09 (I will be posting a zoomed out daily chart on EURUSD) for the move so be prepared to close partial positions rather than all to make the most of this leg. To put it simply we are betting on the lows for the next 2 quarters in dollar being set already across most majors.
Short
by ridethepig
ECB flowsHere we are quickly tracking the flows for the news: We are tracking a few key things here today: (1) Removal of summer 2019 from forward guidance -> replaced with end of year (2) Growth and inflation forecasts revised lower (3) Confirmation on TLTRO’s to be announced with full details coming in April For those who are short EURUSD, there are no changes to the path towards 1.09. The risk is for a knee-jerk reaction to the upside on the headline of TLTRO’s not coming till April. For the news flow there is heavy resistance at 1.135/1.136 and provide selling opportunities. Good luck guys
Long
by ridethepig
EURUSD Roadmap for 1.09After a very bearish end to the week for EURUSD I am updating the Daily chart with our latest targets at 1.0905. Timing wise we are positioned for ECB which is expected very dovish as Europe is struggling on many fronts... => EZ growth subdued in Q418 and expected to remain low for Q119; Italy already in technical recession whilst Germany touching cloth. => Industrial production fell in Q4 pushing the expected technical recession to the front seat. => Bottlenecks in the car industry on the supply side => Household spending falling with consumer confidence On the ECB side there is no hikes expected this year or next, a view they do not seem to be pushing back against. Inflation pressures are muted and the turn in oil will provide more relief to firms. Remember we have more TLTROs coming next week. From the technical angle, we are still trading a retrace leg in this uptrend from the Feb 2018 highs meaning the odds of parity and below are unexpected and I will be looking for longs towards the end of Q2 / early Q3. I have attached the monthly and weekly EURUSD and DXY charts below which explain this in more depth. Feel free to open the macro discussion here for the main event next week!
Short
by ridethepig
5
A Close Above Daily EMA 50 Might Take EURNZD To 1.69000 level !1.65000 level represents the concrete support level drawn from the Monthly charts, which has been clearly rejected and the price now aims at breaking the channel that it is confined in and close above the daily 50 EMA! A convincing close above daily 50 EMA needs to take place, thereby giving further confluence that the price is headed towards the 1.69000 level! 1.69000 level is the area where the weekly 50 EMA is present and can often act as a dynamic support and resistance and therefore our target would be that level. In the future if the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA we can opt to take this pair further LONG to the next resistance (THE RED LINES ON THE CHART) On the fundamental aspects the AUD and NZD are both set to depreciate this year with the reason being they are too overvalued at the time. I feel a drop in NZD against the USD will likely happen soon and this will inturn have great impact on the EURNZD too. It remains to be seen if the technical aspects meet in the coming days. shall there be any trade entries i will post them in a new thread. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair. cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
EURAUD Likely To Test 1.55 level Amid Risk ON Appetite!With the potential Trade deal getting even closer among the worlds two largest economy and trump delaying the tariffs, The Australian Dollar may appreciate but NOT too much. In the analysis below i explained why the AUD is in for some benefit but DO NOT expect it rally should the trade deal be made! Same goes Fundamental analysis goes for the EURAUD however in this case shall the trade deal be made the EUR would likely be appreciating but not as compared to the AUD. this week kicks off with busy schedule today with FED chairman about to comment on the monetary policy and the impact the trade war is having on the economy. Have a read at the article below: Daily FX Market Roundup February 25, 2019 Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management. We are starting this busy trading week with solid gains in equities and currencies. Thanks to President Trump who officially delayed the next round of tariffs, all of the major currency pairs are trading higher led by gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. While the president hinted at this outcome last week, investors were relieved that his views did not change before an official announcement was made. Of course, the decision to extend the deadline was an easy one because it creates good will without a real commitment. Still, investors liked that it was open ended and that the truce will last until the summit between President Trump and President Xi next month. Assuming that both sides continue to make progress, Trump says they will be planning for a Summit at Mar-a-Lago to conclude an agreement. Speculation has now shifted from an extension to a conclusion of the trade war. Memorandums of understanding are being drafted in 6 key areas that include cyber theft, intellectual property, currency and non-tariff barriers. While there will be legs to this rally, it's important to understand that a final trade agreement could take many forms. The US could promise to keep tariffs where they are (with no further increases) and review them in a few months/years or they could abolish them completely. There’s also the possibility that a deal “might not happen at all” according to Trump but he’s motivated to get it done. Fed Chairman Powell is headed to Capitol Hill Tuesday to testify before Congress. His prepared comments on the economy and monetary policy will be released at 9:45AM NY/14:45 GMT and they should drive EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher. If the trade deal gives Powell a new sense of optimism, risk appetite will improve, lifting high-beta currencies. If he remain cautious, stresses the need for patience, talks about the downside risks to growth and the possibility of fewer rate hikes, the US dollar will fall, which should still be positive for EUR, AUD and NZD. USD/JPY on the other hand will rise on optimism and fall on pessimism. EUR/USD ended the day at its highest level in more than 2 weeks but it remains firmly within its recent range. A move above 1.1390 is needed for the upside breakout to be real. Sterling extended its gains above 1.31 versus the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister May delayed the “meaningful vote” to March 12, two weeks before they are scheduled to leave the European Union. This decision should have been negative for the currency but investors believe that by running down the clock, May leaves Parliament with no choice but to take over the Brexit process. She’ll have to request an extension of Article 50 or risk being shut out of negotiations. There’s talk that the European Commission could consider a 2-year delay and the Labour party is moving toward supporting a second referendum. Both choices are better than the current course, which is what investors are banking on. The Canadian dollar was the only major currency that failed to benefit from the risk rally and oil prices are to blame. Crude tumbled more than 3% after a tweet from President Trump that simply said “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!” While there was no specific threat, investors feared that the president, who hasn’t tweeted about oil since December, is returning to his criticism of the alliance. It is also a nudge to Saudi Arabia who previously raised output on the back of pressure from the Trump Administration *************************************************** END OF ARTICLE **************************************************************************************************** SOURCE: www.investing.com With FED chairman speaking this week, the USD is in for a shakeout which inturn would affect other currencies specifically speaking about AUD, JPY, NZD and EURO. On a technical perspective of this trade analysis, the price on the daily TF is forming a rough head and shoulders pattern and the neckline is just seem to be present above the weekly 50 EMA. Shall the neckline break it would also be favorable the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA in the process with convincing fashion. The next support based on the Monthly charts lies at the 1.55 crucial level where the price is expected to be headed! Based on all the fundamental analysis and technical ones shall the criteria meet i will likely wait for the neckline to break and retest before making any suitable entry. However we are also keeping an eye out for the AUDUSD pair as these two are kind of correlated which makes executing two trades a risky scenario. Whichever pair gives the best outcome i will possibly take either one of these AUD related pair trade! This just represents my analysis on this pair, shall there be a suitable trade criteria i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
EUR/USD rangeEUR/USD has been stuck in a tight range since October between 1.1215 and 1.15. The pair is underpin by trade relief between China and the US and dovish Fed, but an economic slowdown in Europe and brexit is limiting its gains. Uncertainties around the euro zone remain high, but I think that a breakthrough is around the corner. This range will stay until a major change in fundamentals, which will lead to a breakout either up or down. What do you guys think will happen in the near term ? Breakout up or down and why ? Comment your opinions. Thank you
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EUR/USD BullishAfter suffering large losses on Thursday following disappointing datas and dovish Draghi , EUR/USD recovered all its losses on Friday and ended the week positively. I spotted a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart which shows upside reversal. Next target for bulls is 1.142 ( January 16 high ) and 38.2 Fibo. , 1.144 and 1.15 psychological mark. Next Wednesday is the Fed's monthly meeting followed by NFP on Friday . Those are the main events that will give us a clearer direction of the market. Trade Safe.
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
USD index: post-breakout strategy Key factors: - DXY broke out and has the potential to touch the daily 61.8% Fib level - Retail traders heavily short against USD -> further $ appreciation - Key risk event: ECB press conference (24-Jan) -> in case ECB sends dovish signal, $ moves higher Trade setup: - if USD appreciates, wait until daily 61.8 level + bearish candlestick -> go short - If no further $ appreciation, wait for the ECB press conference. If no dovish signal is sent, go short from around the 50% Fib level.
TVC:DXYShort
by RobertSoos
EURUSD: Good potential on the long sideThe euro offers an interesting long entry here, upside if prices hold over the weekly mode, and eventually break out from it (cyan box), we may get to the chart depicted on chart within 10 weeks or less. Daily is oversold, with the proprietary indicator RgMov showing a bullish daily trend, and CCI flashing a buy signal, together with price action signals confirming it as well. Once we see strength, breaking over a previous daily high, we can add to this trade as well. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
EURUSD - Draghi, eco indicators sending euro lowerIn spite of all the major banks forecasting higher EURUSD rate for 2019, I believe there is more risk in the eurozone than in US. Namely: - Eurozone industrial production falling - Germany close to technical recession - Brexit, EU parliamentary vote - Mario Draghi admitting eurozone growth slowing down -> rate hike far away. Technicals: -Weekly 61.8 support - Weekly 20 ema resistance Trade idea: - Wait for further slide and see what happens around support
Short
by RobertSoos
EURNZD Stuck In A Range, Awaiting Support Or Resistance Break!The main chart represents the EURNZD weekly chart where it shows that the price has been stuck in a range. The red horizontal support and resistance are the crucial nearby levels that needs to be broken for the pair to start a new or continue the old trend cycle. Depends on what level is broken first then and only then it is advisable to trade this pair LONG OR SHORT. At the moment a downward trendline seems to be developing which also evident on the daily charts. (see the image below) For us to go LONG on this trade the resistance of 1.73500 needs to be broken so that the price will be likely to be en route to next resistance whcih stands at 1.8000 level. On the flip side if the support of 1.65000 is broken then the price might likely head down to the next support that lies at 1.58000 level. It remains to be seen what can happen to this pair but for now any swing trading opportunity may not be a beneficial one as the price is stuck in a range Shall there be any trade signal i will post in a new thread. this is just my analysis and opinion on this specific pair. cheers
by FX618Analysis