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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's trading, the Eurodollar lacked significant price movement, revolving around the Mean Resistance level of 1.085. This means that the currency has been experiencing a period of consolidation with no clear direction. However, based on recent price trends, we expect the Eurodollar to move towards our Mean Support level of 1.077. This may trigger further downward movement, leading to an additional decline. If the downward movement continues, the Eurodollar could reach the Inner Currency Dip at 1.065, which is the primary target. The Inner Currency Dip 1.065 is where the currency is expected to have the most significant support, and a reversal in trend can often occur. However, this decline will happen gradually, with Mean Support levels at 1.070 and 1.067 as intermediate upside price effects. It's important to note that various factors, such as economic data releases, political developments, and global events, can influence the Eurodollar's movement.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD dips as German inflation declinesThe euro is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0800, down 0.35%. Germany’s inflation rate dropped to 2.5% y/y in February, down from 2.9% in January and lower than the market estimate of 2.6%. This was the lowest level since June 2021, as inflation continues to move closer to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%. Food and energy prices were the main drivers of the decline, while services inflation was unchanged at 3.4%. Monthly, inflation rose 0.4%, up from 0.2% in February and shy of the market estimate of 0.5%. Core CPI remained steady at 3.4%, its lowest level since July 2022. The eurozone releases February on Friday, which is also expected to decline. Headline CPI is expected to ease to 2.5%, down from 2.8% in January. Core CPI is projected to decline to 2.9%, compared to 3.3% in January. If the market estimates are on target, the drop in inflation will put pressure on the ECB to consider lowering interest rates as inflation gets closer to the ECB’s 2% target. ECB policy makers have been extremely cautious about easing monetary policy too quickly due to fears of inflation resurging, but the recipe of high interest rates and a weak eurozone economy could lead to a recession. In the US, market pricing for Fed rate cuts has been slashed and is currently in line with the Fed projection of three rate cuts this year. In December, the markets priced in as many as six rate cuts but a surprisingly robust US economy and a Fed pushback against rate expectations has pushed a March rate cut off the table, with June or September the likely dates of an initial rate cut. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0823 . Below, there is support at 1.0760 There is resistance at 1.0885 and 1.0948
by OANDA
EURUSD 25/2/24EU is doing also the exact same thing as GU in which we have run higher into our supply as we called for our very first higher timeframe markup a few weeks back, following on from this idea we have also built liquid as we thought we would during our pullback stage for price, iam now looking for it to shift bearish within our 5min swing range as we are currently still sitting in a bullish range. iam looking into a long from market open ultimately leading us into a shift for major order flow into a sell move to sweep our liquid from the lows this in turn will then give us good reason to look for longs out of the lows and back into the highs! track what price gives you and always trade safe!
by PipSurfingSociety
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 23, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: the current week's trading, the Eurodollar has demonstrated remarkable resilience and a keen ability to withstand significant pressure. After initially facing a considerable challenge against our Mean Resistance level at 1.084, the currency has managed to push past it briefly, indicating a bullish trend. However, the bullish run has been short-lived, as the Eurodollar has retreated to its original position, pointing to a potential bearish trend. Based on recent price action, we anticipate the currency to move towards our Mean Support level at 1.077, which could trigger a further downward slide. If this downward slide occurs, the currency could reach the Inner Currency Dip at 1.065, which will be the primary target. However, this decline may happen gradually, with Mean Support levels at 1.070 and 1.067 acting as intermediate targets. Overall, the data suggests that the Eurodollar may experience a bearish trend shortly, and traders should consider this while making their investment decisions.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 16, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar experienced a decline during this week's trading session. It crossed our Mean Support level of 1.074 and Inner Currency level of 0.075 before quickly bouncing back to the Mean Resistance level of 1.079. Currently, the currency is in a primary downward trend and is expected to continue until it reaches the Inner Currency Dip of 1.065 via Mean Sup 1.071. However, an intermediate price trading at Mean Res 1.079 may cause a potential extension to 1.084.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 9, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar traded lower in this week's trading session by completing our Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 and settling in a tight range, hovering above our Mean Sup 1.074 and under Mean Res 1.079. The Eurodollar is in a primary downward trend, which will continue until the support level marked at Mean Support of 1.074 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 is broken. Once these levels are eliminated, the currency will continue to decline toward the next Inner Currency Dip of 1.065. However, an intermediate upward movement is possible, in which case the currency might retest the Mean Support level of 1.084.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD eyes German inflationEUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0751, down 0.20%. Germany's CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m on Friday, which would confirm the initial estimate from two weeks earlier. On an annualized basis, the initial estimate for CPI came in at 2.9% in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December. A deceleration in energy and food costs was the driver of the downturn in January, which was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021. Core inflation has also been falling, with the initial estimate showing a drop to 3.4%, its lowest rate since June 2022. The drop in German inflation is not all that surprising, as the eurozone's largest economy has been struggling. Germany's manufacturing sector has been in prolonged decline and the services sector is sputtering, with five declines in the past six months. The economy declined in the fourth quarter and another contraction in Q1 would mean that Germany will have entered a technical recession. The eurozone is also grappling with a weak economy, with the latest evidence earlier this week as retail sales slipped 1.1% m/m in December. Despite weak economic conditions in the eurozone and Germany, the European Central Bank has been hesitant to cut interest rates. ECB members have expressed concern that inflation could make a comeback if the ECB were to cut rates too early. That could force the ECB to raise rates again and the optics of such a zig-zag would be disastrous. For now, the ECB remains hawkish on rate policy and is content to continue holding rates until inflation falls closer to the 2% target. Since last week's Fed meeting, a host of Fed members have delivered the message that inflation is heading in the right direction but the Fed plans to be patient and is in no rush to lower rates. The markets have taken note of the Fed's pushback and have pared expectations of a rate cut in March to 18%, down from over 70% in January, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0746 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.0704 There is resistance at 1.0822 and 1.0864
by OANDA
EURGBP: Technicals and ECB Policy ShiftIn today's trading session, our focus is on EURGBP, where we are eyeing a selling opportunity around the 0.85800 zone. Technically, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently navigating a correction phase towards the 0.85800 support and resistance area. Now, delving into the fundamental layer, we are inclined towards a bearish stance on the Euro due to potential rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in April. The recent policy stance of the ECB indicates a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance. President Lagarde's avoidance of calendar guidance in favor of data dependence further underscores this shift. The ECB's acknowledgment that data have been trending positively, albeit faster than expected, suggests a willingness to act preemptively if economic conditions warrant it. The latest PMI data, while showing signs of improvement in the manufacturing sector, also hint at supply disruptions affecting delivery times, which could temper the overall economic recovery. Additionally, disappointing forward-looking indicators like the fo climate index and subdued inflation expectations from ECB surveys contribute to a cautious outlook on the Euro's prospects. As such, the constraints on the ECB are easing, paving the way for potential monetary policy adjustments in the coming months, including the possibility of rate cuts. This shift in policy stance and the accompanying real rate differentials could weigh on the Euro against other currencies, including the British Pound. In light of these factors, maintaining a bearish outlook on the Euro seems prudent, with EURGBP positioned for potential downside movement in the near term
Short
by JoeChampion
1
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 26, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar gyrated between our Mean Res 1.090 and Mean Sup 1.084 throughout this week's trading. The continuous primary downward designation is the established support level marked at 1.076 and the Inner Currency Dip level of 1.075 with a strong possibility of a dead-cat rebound to reversed (Resistance) Mean Sup 1.084. On the upside, the currency might retest a Mean Sup 1.090 before continuing its downward trend.
by TradeSelecter
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Gold behaves quite surprisingly. After rather optimistic statistics from the US this week, the metal sank under pressure from the US dollar, while other instruments reacted much more modestly. Our first goal is almost achieved. However, a fall below 1980 is being considered, namely to 1960 . The growth potential of the US dollar has not even begun to exhaust itself, so we can expect a considerable fall in gold. Today is one of our busiest days, with many important statistics expected, especially from the USA . Therefore, increased volatility today is completely normal. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The British currency completely duplicates the situation with the EURUSD currency pair. Here, we also continue to stick to sales. The main target according to our previous trading ideas is the level of 1.25000 . Technically, and according to volume analysis, we have both an entry point and a resource in the form of bid-accumulations, due to which we assume a downward impulse will be generated. On Thursday, that is, today a large number of economic events from the EU and the USA are expected. . Therefore, most likely today will be decisive and the instrument will finally shoot down, as we expect. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-25/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The situation with the euro has not changed since our last review. Protracted accumulation continues at the level of 1.09000 . However, we continue to follow sell-priority. According to our later analysis (scenario #1 and #2) we expect a fall to 1.08000 . Also, in the longer term, we can consider a fall to 1.07000. On Thursday, that is, today a large number of economic events from the EU and the USA are expected. Therefore, most likely today will be decisive and the instrument will finally shoot down, as we expect. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
EURAUD | It's time to evaluate a Bearish MomentumThe H4 analysis of the Euro/Australian Dollar exchange rate points to a negative trend, with the price currently undergoing a Fibonacci retracement at the 0.62-0.79 level. I anticipate a potential bearish momentum for the pair with a potential target of 1.6270, representing an area of liquidity that has yet to be explored. However, it is crucial for the price to execute a Break Out of Structure (BOS) on a 15-minute time frame during the London or New York sessions. We hope to observe a clear and significant change in market structure during these sessions; otherwise, the idea is not to be considered viable. We always await the necessary operational confirmations and adhere to an optimal risk management approach. Best regards, as always, from Nicola, and I wish everyone a good day of trading.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD is ready for the ECB with target 1.07!The EUR/USD exchange rate is advancing significantly after two consecutive days of retracement, although a convincing break of the 1.0900 barrier remains elusive at the moment. The prospects for the pair are expected to turn bearish if it sustains a convincing breach of the crucial 200-day moving average, currently at 1.0844. On the upside, the weekly level of 1.0998 (January 11) must be surpassed to open the door to a possible visit to the December high of 1.1139 (December 28). Based on the 4-hour chart, the pair seems to have returned to a consolidation phase. The unexpected and intense dollar sell-off has allowed the EUR/USD to shake off some of its recent weakness and refocus on the upside, surpassing the 1.0900 threshold to print new multi-day highs. The USD Index (DXY) has succumbed to the prevailing risk-friendly environment and dropped below the 103.00 region despite the rise in U.S. yields along the curve, while speculations continued to indicate decreasing bets on a Fed rate cut in March, favoring a rate reduction in May instead. Also contributing to the renewed buying interest in the pair, advanced PMI readings in Germany and the Eurozone came in on the strong side for January, highlighting a revival of economic activity in the region and suggesting the possibility of a soft landing for the regional economy. With the upcoming ECB event in mind, it is important to emphasize that market participants have already priced in about 120 basis points of rate cuts for the current year. However, there is a growing debate among market participants and decision-makers at the ECB regarding when the central bank will decide to implement a policy rate reduction for the region. Additionally, President Lagarde has hinted at the possibility of a potential move during the summer. Tomorrow will be a truly interesting day, with no cuts expected, and the euro-dollar heading towards 1.07 as indicated by the chart. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD Pullback To Previous Support BreakHi Traders! EURUSD has found support and is targeting the previous breakout level for a re-test ahead of ECB President Lagarde's speech. Here are the details: The market has found strong support at the 1.08555 level, and the price action looks bullish; the lows and highs are starting to get higher, and the price is pulling back near the previous support break at 1.09102, which is now resistance. Additionally, the market is pulling closer to the 20 EMA. The plan here is to enter near the support level around 1.80555 and target exits near 1.09102. Preferred Direction: Buy Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 1.09102 Support: 1.08555 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 12, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has been trading aimlessly this week, fluctuating below the designated Mean Resistance of 1.098. The current target is the Mean Support of 1.090, with a potential decline towards the established Mean Support level of 1.075. On the upside, the Eurodollar may attempt to surpass the Mean Resistance level of 1.098 and reach the Mean Resistance of 1.104 before showing any significant decline.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 5, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has experienced significant price fluctuations throughout this week's trading session. It has fallen below our Mean Support level of 1.100, indicating a potential decline towards the established Mean Support of 1.075. It is highly probable that the Eurodollar will retest the Mean Resistance level of 1.098. The current violent movement of the Eurodollar around our crucial Mean Support of 1.090 and Mean Resistance of 1.098 is a clear indication of the same.
by TradeSelecter
The Euro will weaken against the GBPSummary The European Central Bank (ECB) will likely cut rates before The Bank of England (BOE), meaning potential downside on EURGBP. The Details European interest rate hikes have been successful - Euro Area inflation is around 2%. Mission accomplished. Easing rates is the next step after holding the current rate for a while. Cutting rates will weaken the Euro. European economic figures are poor, which adds conviction to rate cuts in the near future. On the other hand, the BOE will likely keep higher rates for longer. There may even be a final rate hike by the BOE. Inflation is still above 3%. Cutting rates anytime soon could be seen as irresponsible and is not likely. I expect EURGBP to reach weekly range support at 0.8250 in 2024. Price may even break the range support area. Things to Consider If the UK also signals recession, pressure to cut rates will increase. However, inflation should be the primary influence on rate decisions. EURGBP could move higher before it starts declining.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
FED vs ECB - Soft Landing As of today Thursday, December 14, 2023- ECB ( European Central Bank ) at 14:00 PM ( Budapest Time GMT+1 ) will disclouse their interest rate decision in the following categories. 11:00 EUR EU Leaders Summit 14:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) 14:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 14:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement 14:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) Over the last 2Mto 1M , depending on the data frequency, such as weekly or montly we have observed that, generally speaking, inflation is under control in the Eurozone. Therefore, any further rate hikes from the ECB are absolutely unnecessary and would cause serious issues in the Italian and German economies. Even though a rate hike would cause an immediate surge in EUR/USD, which is certainly in my interest since I hold a long position, in the case of a rate hike, I would close it nearly immediately. I expect that today the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged to allow time for the effects of their previous measures to fully transmit into the economy
Long
by ElGatoTrade
1
Euro jumps to 5-month highThe euro has posted strong gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1121, up 0.72%. The US dollar is under pressure this week as we're seeing a risk-on mood in global markets. The week between Christmas and New Year's is normally quiet, with a very light data calendar. However, investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve to cut rates early next year and this sentiment has sent equity markets higher while weighing on the US dollar. The euro is powering higher, with gains of 2.1% in December and 2.9% in November against the retreating US dollar. Federal Chair Powell surprised the markets when he pencilled in three rate cuts for next year. Investors had braced themselves for Powell to push back against rate cut expectations, a script he has followed for months. This time, however, Powell jumped on the bandwagon although Fed members have since urged the markets to tamper their expectations of up to six rate cuts next year. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut in March, with over 150 basis points in cuts for all of 2024 according to the CME's FedWatch tool. There is a similar disconnect between the markets and the European Central Bank. The markets are looking at six rate cuts next year, perhaps as early as March, while the ECB has tried to dampen these expectations. ECB President Lagarde stated last week that members had not discussed a rate cut at the December meeting, at which the central bank held the cash rate at 4.0% for a second straight time. I expect that markets in both the US and Europe will remain much more bullish about rate cuts than the central banks. It's a light data calendar between Christmas and New Year's in the US. The Richmond Manufacturing Index decelerated to -11 today, down from -5 in November and missing the market consensus of -6. On Thursday, unemployment claims are expected to drop to 205,000, down from 210,000 a week earlier. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1072. Above, there is resistance at 1.1130 1.0982 and 1.0924 is providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has shown significant price movements throughout this week's trading session by surpassing our previously achieved Inner Currency Rally level of 1.099 and its corresponding resistance at the same price point. The current price action suggests that the Eurodollar will likely continue to climb, with the target level set at Inner Currency Rally 1.109. However, it is essential to stay alert to the ever-changing dynamics of the Eurodollar market, as the price action may experience a drawdown.
by TradeSelecter