Trading this week's fundamental events The market's attention will be fixed on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2023 scheduled for this Wednesday, with the expectation that the US will maintain interest rates at a 22-year high.
Investors will have an opportunity to scrutinize the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for any indications of potential rate cuts in 2024 (or lack thereof).
One day prior to the Feds decision, the US is also poised to unveil essential inflation data. Forecasts suggest a marginal uptick of 0.1% in November consumer prices.
Turning attention to Europe, traders will focus on rate decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE), both occurring on Thursday.
The BoE is predicted to maintain borrowing costs at a 15-year high while reiterating the necessity for elevated rates. Any commentary from the bank deviating from this outlook could potentially cause ripples in the market.
Eurozone inflation dropped to 2.4% last month, down from over 10% a year earlier, following ten consecutive rate hikes. This decline brings the ECB's 2% inflation target into view and makes a further rate increase unlikely. Goldman Sachs has forecasted that the European Central Bank's meeting in April will mark the initiation of its first rate cut, followed by a 25 basis points cut at each subsequent meeting throughout the year.
Ecb
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Last week's completion of our Inner Currency Rally of 1.099 continued to drop to strategic Mean Sup 1.084 and is on its way to a significant Mean Sup 1.067 and Inner Currency Dip 1.068 outcome. The current price action suggests a rebound from the letter prices to the designated target Mean Res 1.080. Overall, it is essential to closely monitor the Eurodollar market trend and take appropriate measures within critical price action of the support/resistance and dip result.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 1, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
After completing our designated Inner Currency Rally 1.099 target this week's session, the Eurodollar performed as flagged in our EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis for Nov 24 by dropping it to a primary pivotal squeeze to Mean Sup 1.087. The current price action suggests a dead-cat bounce to Mean Res 1.092 with a potential rise to retest the completed Inner Currency Rally 1.099 with a follow-through squeeze.
EUR/USD drops ahead of eurozone CPIThe euro is in negative territory in Thursday trade. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0940, down 0.27%.
Germany's inflation rate declined sharply in November and the eurozone is up next, with the November inflation report later today. German inflation dropped to 3.2% y/y in November, down from 3.8% in October and below expectations. This was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021 and was driven by lower food and energy inflation.
Will eurozone inflation follow suit? The markets are expecting a modest decline for November. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 2.7%, down from 2.9% in October, and the core is expected to ease to 3.9%, down from 4.2% in October. If inflation falls modestly as expected, it is unlikely to cause the ECB to reconsider its rate policy. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May 2024 and a softer-than-expected print would likely result in the odds of a rate cut being brought forward.
The ECB has signalled a 'higher for longer policy', as have the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Even though inflation has been dropping, it remains considerably higher than the ECB's 2% target and the central bank hasn't given any indications of a rate cut. Investors will be looking for hints about rate policy from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who will speak today at an ECB forum in Frankfurt after the eurozone inflation release.
In the US, second-estimate GDP for the third quarter was revised to 5.2%, up from the initial estimate of 4.9%. The strong reading should ease fears of a recession but also provides the Fed with little reason to trim rates while inflation remains well above the 2% target. The Fed has signalled a 'higher for longer' stance on rates but the markets are more dovish and have priced in a rate hike in March 2024 at 45%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
EUR/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.0920. Below, there is support at 1.0873
1.0986 and 1.1033 are the next resistance lines
EUR/USD dips as German inflation declinesThe euro is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0984, down 0.11%.
Gerrmany's inflation rate dropped more than expected, coming in at 3.2% y/y in November. This was down considerably from 3.8% in October and below the market consensus of 3.5%. This was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021 and was driven by lower food and energy inflation. Services inflation eased to 3.4%, down from 3.9%. Core inflation dropped to 3.8%, down from 4.3% in October.
There's a lot to like in this inflation print and ECB policy makers will no doubt be pleased as German inflation continues to fall. The next text is on Thursday, with the release of eurozone inflation for November. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 2.7%, down from 2.9%, and the core is expected to ease to 3.9%, down from 4.2%.
The ECB has signalled a 'higher for longer policy', as have the Federal Reserve and other major central banks. Even though inflation has been dropping, it remains higher than the ECB's 2% target, and the central bank hasn't given any indications of a rate cut. The markets are more dovish and have priced in a rate cut as early as May. If eurozone CPI follows the German release and declines more than expected, we could see the odds of a rate cut brought forward ahead of May.
The US economy provided another reminder today that the economy is in strong shape. US GDP (second estimate) climbed an impressive 5.2% y/y in the third quarter, the strongest quarter since Q4 2021. The release beat the market consensus of 5.0% and was higher than the preliminary estimate of 4.9%. The economy showed marked improvement compared to the second quarter, which had growth of just 2.1%.
EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0986. Below, there is support at 1.0920
1.1033 and 1.1099 are providing support
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
After a pullback, the Eurodollar aims for our designated target, Inner Currency Rally 1.099. This comes after the currency repeatedly hit strong Key Res 1.092 in this week's price action. This suggests that the Eurodollar may experience an imminent rally to Inner Currency Rally 1.099 in this upcoming session, potentially bringing it to a primary pivotal squeeze with an extension all the way to Mean Sup 1.087.
EUR/USD slips on ECB warning, PMIs nextThe euro is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0864, down 0.42%.
The ECB released its semi-annual financial stability review earlier today and warned of stress in financial stability in the eurozone. The report found that tighter financial conditions were making it difficult for households, businesses and governments. In short, the financial stability outlook remains fragile. The review warned that the Israel-Hamas war posed the risk of affecting the supply of oil, which could push inflation higher and dampen growth.
The economic picture in the eurozone is not encouraging, as the eurozone economy is stagnating and Germany, once a global powerhouse, has become a deadweight in the eurozone with its weak economy. The euro has jumped 2.8% against the US dollar in November, but that is more a case of US dollar weakness due to expectations of rate cuts in the US rather than strength in the euro.
In the US, unemployment claims were lower than anticipated, coming in at 209 thousand. This was below the market consensus of 225,000 and the previous revised release of 233 thousand. The reading indicates that the labour market is still showing signs of strength, which supports the Federal Reserve's rate policy of higher for lower.
The Federal Reserve minutes of the November meeting stated that the Fed plans to proceed with caution and will be keeping an eye on the data in making future rate decisions. The minutes made no reference to any discussion at the meeting about rate cuts, consistent with Jerome Powell's comments after the meeting that the Fed "is not thinking about rate cuts at all". The markets would beg to disagree and have priced in a rate cut in mid-2024.
There is resistance at 1.0951 and 1.1017
1.0831 and 1.0748 are providing support
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has experienced a notable recovery after successfully achieving the designated target of Inner Currency Rally 1.077. This means the Euro has bounced back significantly and shows positive momentum in the currency market.
However, as the Eurodollar approaches the next selected mark, Key Res 1.092, it may encounter significant resistance. The price of this resistance level is essential, suggesting whether the Eurodollar will likely fall further.
Furthermore, if the Eurodollar fails to surpass the Key Res 1.092 level, it could continue its downward momentum and reach the Mean Support level of 1.084. This crucial support level will offer a substantial price platform against further downward movements. Therefore, it is also essential to keep an eye on the Eurodollar's performance at this level.
EURAUD: Expecting a bounce down from channel boundaryExpecting strength from the Aussie this week, even though the RBA hiked, I think the Aussie was negatively affected by the fall in commodities rates in the past week.
I see no strength in the Euro and I think Friday's candle suggests that this pair may not break back into my ascending channel, this could form a double top too.
Tuesday EUR GDP data - could be indicating recession...
Expecting a fall.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 10, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has undergone a notable downtrend movement from our Key Resistance level of 1.075, a significant level of resistance that the currency has been unable to break through. As a result, it is now expected to gradually move towards the Mean Support level of 1.061, which is strategic support for the currency. Furthermore, the Eurodollar may extend its bearish momentum and reach the Mean Support level of 1.056, which is a firm level of support.
However, it is worth noting that the currency could rebound toward uncompleted Inner Currency Rally 1.077 and Key Res 1.075, a level of resistance that the Eurodollar tested in this week's trading session. If the currency breaks through these two levels, it could complete the current Inner Currency Rally 1.077 and continue its upward trend.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 3, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Make no doubt that the Eurodollar has jubilantly bounced above our Inner Currency Rally of 1.070 with an eye on the ensuing Key Res 1.075 and Inner Currency Rally of 1.077. The upcoming pivotal reversal will likely take us down to Mean Sup 1.056 and Key Sup 1.047.
EURUSD: Daily Price Action Suggests A Move UpLooking at this pair it's been trading in a descending dynamic channel since mid-July, it makes up nearly 58% of the DXY index and so is in close negative correlation to this index.
We can see the on the daily a pinbar followed by a long-wick doji, which could mean reversal, the opposite can be seen in DXY:
We can now see a breakout of the channel, and the pinbar was formed on the restest, and now the long wick doji.
We have a lot of news this week affecting the Euro (Mon / Tues), and then the USD (Wed).
Overall I think that the price action is determining a weaker dollar which means stronger crosses for the next short period of time, dollar needs a rest and has failed to form a new HH yet despite economic news that would normally entice the bulls.
There will be volatility this week so being conservative with initial target, however depending on the news we could well see us back over 1.08 this month.
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: high's update💬 Description: The metal follows the previously planned course exactly. Demand continues to grow, including against the backdrop of the aggravated situation in the Middle East, but in addition, purely technically, sellers cannot realize their sales at the local elites. In the very near future, most likely, Gold prices will go towards updating local highs. In turn, this will cause another activation of sellers’ stop losses, and the approach to 2000 will be implemented.
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EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 27, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
As projected, the Eurodollar completed our Inner Currency Rally of 1.070 and retracted to the designated price target Mean Sup 1.053. The intermediate price action suggests the continuation of the Reignited Pivotal Down Move to retest Key Sup 1.047 and completed Outer Currency Dip 1.045 with an extension on the horizon of Next Outer Currency Dip 1.035. Rebound to Mean Res 1.060 is a possibility.
Euro H1 | Will ECB drive the Euro lower?The Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.05684 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.06000 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 1.05256 which is a pullback support level.
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BluetonaFX - EURUSD Under Serious PressureHi Traders!
Today is a big day for the EURUSD with the ECB's interest rate decision followed by their press conference. The pair is under some pressure and is approaching its yearly low at 1.04485, and we could see that being broken depending on the ECB's decision today.
Price Action 📊
The market recently broke its long-term ascending price channel, and momentum looks to be on the bearish side. The market is also below the 20 EMA.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The Eurozone has shown strong Flash PMI data recently, so traders will be looking for positive statements from the ECB regarding the Eurozone's inflation issues.
Support 📉
1.05090: PREVIOUS WEEK'S LOW
1.04485: YEARLY LOW
Resistance 📈
1.06946: CURRENT WEEK'S HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
Looking at EURGBP ahead of ECB Rate Decision TomorrowAhead of the ECB rate decision tomorrow, the futures markets see almost zero chance we get anything other than a hold at 4.50%. This falls in line with other economies including the Bank of Canada which held rates earlier today.
From a technical perspective the Daily chart is back above the wedge breakout level. I took a Long this morning from 0.87140 after a nice rejection candle close yesterday, but price moved sideways and failed to push higher. This continues the pairs lack of conviction above 0.8700 which starts to make it more and more difficult to see price making a clean break higher.
So 0.8700 is the line in the sand tomorrow, if we see buyers really step up and drive price higher I'll be looking for more Longs, but if we fall back inside 0.8700 I'll flip my bias short, specially if we fall back inside after the rates have been announced.
Best of luck out there and I'll see you tomorrow.
EURUSD Is Still Bearish Whiel It Trades Below 1.07EURUSD had some nice bounce in the last 24 hours, back to 1.07 which is now acting as a very strong resistance. We also highlighted this one in our website here on TV. I would not be surprised if the pair comes down actually, bakc to 2023 lows since it's very hard to trust Monday flows, plus, we will rarely see directional moves ahead of key events the ECB this Thursday.
There are more and more speculations that ECB is done with rates, and that they will not raise this year anymore, which can certainly keep EURUSD pair in a downtrend. Technically we see 1.07 as an important resistance, at the same area of 50d SMA, while hourly time frame shows three waves up from the lows.
Grega
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 20, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
This week's trading saw the Eurodollar drawn to the Mean Res of 1.062, its main attraction. The intermediate price action may cause a pullback to Mean Sup 1.053 before resuming rebounding to Inner Currency Rally 1.070 with the completion of the pullback to follow.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 13, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
As our analysis of the EUR/USD daily chart for the week of October 6 indicated, the Eurodollar hit our mean resistance level of 1.062 a few times and is drifting lower toward the mean support level of 1.047. The price may rebound strongly from this zone of upcoming week price action.
EURJPY: Price gone higher than expected for a better entry.Price moved a lot higher to fill the overnight gap down.
My idea yesterday became invalid but this gives me a better entry:
Gap down suggests general direction and now the gap has been filled, supported by a pinbar on the 1hr I'm getting in short with a first TP at 156 (ultimately I think 154), but I think this could be the start of the reversal.
EURJPY: Finally ready to reverse?EURJPY has been hanging around 157 - 157.5 range for some time, we saw a break below last week which quickly recovered, but we've broken back below now so I expect a stronger push back down to the low of last week (caused by JPY buying).
With price action there was also a failure to make a new high, we saw a short pinbar on the 4HR before we broke back below my resistance block.
I see this happening again as the BoJ look to defend their currency, I'm expecting JPY to start to perform well across the board - they may not provide any interest but their inflation is low and their economic performance is looking ok to me to, and also money flows and so a reversal should be coming soon.
I also think the EURO is in trouble, with stagflation, this will lead to recession imo and will hit the EURO so this is one of the JPY crosses I'm expecting big declining moves from.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 6, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has tested the Outer Currency Dip of 1.050 multiple times. It has risen during this week's trading session, as our EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of September 29 indicated: For the upcoming week, the up target is Mean Res 1.062, and on the downside the Mean Sup 1.050 and completed Outer Currency Dip of 1.050.