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Euro trading quietly around 1.09, FOMC minutes nextEUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is almost unchanged at 1.0882. The eurozone services sector continues to show growth, but the June numbers showed a deceleration. Eurozone PMI slowed to 52.0, shy of the consensus of 52.4 and down from 55.1 in May. This marked a five-month low. Germany's services sector stalled, dropping from 53.9 to 50.6 and missing the consensus of 50.8 points. The 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion. The eurozone economy has been recovering slowly, with services driving economic activity as manufacturing continues to decline. The ECB, which showed up late to the rate-hiking party but has been quite hawkish, will need to tread carefully in order to guide the economy to a soft landing. The central bank meets next on July 27th and is expected to raise rates. Inflation has been falling but core CPI remains persistently high. The ECB has signalled more rate hikes are coming and Joachim Nagel, head of the German central bank, reiterated the ECB's stance, saying this week that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and the ECB's rate-hike cycle has "some way to go". Wednesday's highlight is the FOMC minutes of the June meeting, when the Fed raised rates by 0.25%, bringing the benchmark cash rate to a range of 5.00%-5.25%. The markets are widely expecting the Fed to hike at the July meeting but aren't sure about another rate hike this year. Fed Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed plans two hikes in the second half of the year and the minutes could change the market's tune if the Fed's tone is hawkish. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0908. The next resistance line is 110.50 1.0838 and 1.0766 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD climbs as key US inflation gauge ticks lowerEUR/USD is trading at 1.0872 in the European session, up 0.07%. The euro is under pressure and is down close to 100 pips since Tuesday. Inflation in the eurozone continues to fall. Eurozone CPI is expected to fall to 5.5% in June, down from 6.1% in May and a notch below the consensus of 5.6%. Headline inflation has fallen to its lowest level since January 2022. The problem for the ECB is that Core CPI, which is a more reliable gauge of inflation trends, moved the wrong way. Core CPI ticked higher to 5.4%, up from 5.3% and below the consensus of 5.5%. These levels of core inflation are incompatible with a 2% inflation target and today's inflation report won't prevent the ECB from delivering a rate hike in July. The ECB may be forced to increase rates beyond the July meeting until there is evidence that core inflation has turned the corner and shows clear signs of deceleration in the second half of the year. Germany's inflation report was worse, as both headline and core inflation moved higher, as expected. Headline inflation rose to 6.4% in June, up from 6.1% in May, while the core rate climbed from 5.4% to 5.8%. Inflation had fallen over six straight months and the June numbers could be an anomaly, but as ECB President Lagarde stated earlier this week, the battle against inflation isn't over yet. US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's favourite inflation gauge, eased lower in May. The index dipped to 4.6% y/y, down from 4.7% in April, which was also the consensus. On a monthly basis, the index fell to 0.1%, down from 0.4%. The decline in inflation hasn't had much effect on market rate pricing, with an 86% probability of a 25-bp rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The week wraps up with UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to rise to 63.9 in June, up from 59.2 in May. EUR/USD continues to put pressure on resistance at 1.0916. This is followed by resistance at 1.0988 1.0822 and 1.0750 are providing support
by OANDA
Time To Drop After Tuesday's Nice Pop?Assuming we are early into the long trip downward would put us somewhere in the early stages of Cycle wave C down, Primary wave 1 down, Intermediate wave 2 up. This would have made Intermediate wave 1 down 5 trading days long with a 120.39 point drop. Based on waves ending in C12, Intermediate wave 2 will last 1 day. There are zero other possible lengths. The quartile movements (blue levels on left) are 27.99%, 50.12%, and 56.51%. Based on waves ending in 12, strongest model agreement for length remains at 1 trading day and second strongest by a lot is 2 trading days. Quartile retracement levels (yellow lines) are at 27.99%, 42.03%, and 66.20%. Tuesday was the first official trading day of Intermediate wave 2. This is quite possibly the only trading day of wave 2. IF wave 2 achieves a new high tomorrow, Thursday would likely not see a new high for a very long time until we drop well below 4328 again. IF a new high is achieved tomorrow it may remain at or under 4400. IF we break above 4400 tomorrow, we may still be BACK in Cycle wave B as was identified in my most recent Devil’s Advocate Analysis. IF back in, well still in B, the market is either in the final Intermediate wave 4 Minor wave B up or the early stages of Intermediate wave 5 which would likely lead to a final market top within 2 weeks. If no new high is achieved and the market falls (likely based on all the Bank of England/Central Bank/Federal Reserve panels in Portugal) the market is in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3 down. This scenario would have seen Intermediate wave 2 last a single day and retrace 46.8% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. Based on waves ending in C13, the quartile movement extensions of wave 1’s movement (blue levels farther on right) are 135.64%, 140.60%, and 165.83%. Most model agree on a length of 4-6 days, with secondary agreement at 7, 8, or 10 trading days long. Based on waves ending in 13, the quartile movement extensions (yellow) are 137.30%, 162.265%, and 198.02%. Models have strongest agreement on length at 5 days long, second is 1 or 4 days, third most agreement is 3 days, fourth is 7 days, fifth is 6 days, sixth is 2 or 10 days. Based on these models, the initial forecast is a possible market low late next week after the American holiday possibly below 4279 and probably not below 4240. This would equate to a drop of around 120 points in about 6 trading days. This is pretty much the same thing accomplished by Intermediate wave 1. Let us see how this plays out beginning with movement tomorrow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Euro skids after soft PMI data, markets eye ISM Mfg. PMIEUR/USD has taken a tumble on Friday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0885, down 0.64%. The euro fell as low as 1.0844 earlier in the day. Later today, the US releases ISM Services PMI. The consensus stands at 54.0 for June, following 54.9 in May. The services sector is in solid shape and the ISM Services PMI has posted four straight readings over the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction. Eurozone PMIs for June pointed to weaker activity in the services and manufacturing sectors. The Services PMI eased to 52.4, down from 55.1 in May and below the consensus of 54.5 points. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 43.6, down from the May reading of 44.8 which was also the consensus. Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, showed a similar trend, with Services PMI falling from 54.7 to 54.1 and Manufacturing PMI dropping from 43.5 to 41.0 points. The 50 line separates contraction from expansion. The takeaway from these numbers is that the eurozone economy is cooling down. Business activity is still growing but at a weaker pace, while the manufacturing recession has deepened. The eurozone economy is yet to recover after negative growth in the past two quarters, as the ECB's aggressive tightening makes its way through the economy. At first glance, the weak PMI readings should be good news for the ECB, which is trying to dampen economic growth in order to wrestle inflation back down to the 2% target. However, inflation remains very high at 6% and further tightening could tip the weak eurozone economy into a recession. The ECB's efforts to push inflation lower have been made more difficult, as unemployment is at historic lows and wage growth is high. Germany, the bloc's largest economy, isn't the power locomotive that it once was and is still in recovery mode. The ECB has signalled that it will hike rates in July and another increase could be coming in September unless inflation decelerates more quickly. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0882. The next support level is 1.0793 1.0976 and 1.1031 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY JUNE 20, 2023Investors Await Central Bank Actions Amid Global Economic Concerns and Uncertainties Prevail Today events: USA - Building Permits (May) USA - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USA - Housing Starts (MoM) (May) USA - FOMC Member Williams Speaks Eurozone - ECB McCaul Speaks Eurozone - ECB's De Guindos Speaks On the evening of Monday, following a public holiday, there was a slight decline in stock futures as investors braced themselves for significant speeches expected from officials of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) throughout the week. This anticipation added to the prevailing uncertainties and lack of clarity that characterized the previous week. In the United States, the inflation data was considered acceptable but not extraordinary, prompting the Fed to temporarily halt its actions while projecting multiple interest rate hikes in the future. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates and emphasized the potential for further increases. Now, all eyes are on the Bank of England (BoE) as it confronts the formidable task of managing the current situation. Despite the efforts of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain control, there exists a looming risk of inflation spiraling out of hand. Among the major economies grappling with the dual objectives of taming inflation and ensuring a smooth economic transition, the United Kingdom appears to be encountering the greatest challenges in effectively attaining these goals. GBP/USD daily chart An intriguing observation can be made regarding the GBP/USD currency pair. Despite retracing from its recent peak around $1.28, the pair has still managed to register a notable 3% gain over the past month. Notably, the British pound has also exhibited strength against the euro, appreciating by more than 1.6% during the same period. This is particularly noteworthy when considering the past situation in September, where the pound was nearing parity with the dollar as UK Gilt yields surged. Presently, it is trading close to the $1.30 mark. This suggests that the foreign exchange market does not currently reflect a prevailing perception of an imminent economic disaster for the UK. In the realm of EUR/USD, Tuesday presents challenges for the currency pair to gain significant momentum. It remains confined within a narrow trading range, with the pair hovering just above the 1.0900 level during the Asian session. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Following its recent decline, the US Dollar (USD) is currently in a phase of recovery. Last Friday, it reached a low that had not been witnessed in over a month. However, the USD has been displaying a gradual strengthening trend for the past three consecutive days. This resurgence of the USD poses a challenge for the EUR/USD currency pair, causing it to retreat to the latest level of 102.55. EUR/USD daily chart However, despite the prevailing challenges, the downside for the EUR/USD pair seems to find some support, at least temporarily, thanks to the hawkish stance adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB's optimistic outlook serves as a factor that mitigates the potential decline of the pair. Furthermore, the current subdued sentiment in equity markets works in favor of the US Dollar's role as a safe-haven currency. This situation, in turn, limits the upside potential for the EUR/USD pair. Concerns regarding a potential global economic slowdown, particularly in China, cast a shadow over reports of China contemplating a comprehensive stimulus package to bolster its economy. These worries continue to dampen investor sentiment. Even the recent decision by the People's Bank of China to lower the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday fails to alleviate anxieties or provide significant momentum to the major currency pair. It is noteworthy that the ECB has recently raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, propelling them to the highest level witnessed in 22 years. The central bank has also emphasized the necessity of further rate hikes to attain the Eurozone's medium-term inflation target of 2%. XAU/USD daily chart In contrast, gold has undergone substantial volatility in the preceding month. Despite the dissemination of recent data and central bank determinations, this precious metal has remained confined within a narrow price range of $1,940 to $1,980, demonstrating minimal signs of breaking out in either direction in the immediate future. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that market conditions can swiftly shift. The current week is particularly eventful, as it is characterized by a flurry of central bank interest rate decisions and a multitude of speeches by Federal Reserve officials. These upcoming events have the potential to introduce new dynamics and variables into the financial markets.
by FOREXN1
11
EUR/USD flirts with 1.08 leading into FOMC and ECB meetingsEUR/USD broke above the 1.0800 handle yesterday thanks to a weak US inflation report, yet price action now finds itself back beneath that key level leading into today's FOMC meeting (and tomorrow's ECB meeting). But as the pair has risen over the past two weeks, it may take a particularly dovish meeting from the Fed to drive it materially higher. Therefore, we're looking for evidence of a swing high and for a move back towards the 1.0700 handle. A bearish divergence is forming on the RSI 4-hour chart and we've identified two resistance zone around the 1.0800 and 1.0860 area we'd consider fading into, or seeking evidence of a swing high. Otherwise, a stop above 1.0800 could suffice should momentum turn lower without breaking back above 1.0800.
Short
by CityIndex
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 16, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar price movement followed our projections as stated on Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of June 9 - the price action hit our initial upside target of Mean Res 1.082 and beyond by completing our Inner Currency Rally 1.096. The unconfirmed pivotal down move is in progress, with the mark aimed to mean Sup 1.080. Trade Selecter will closely monitor any updates and share any valid confirmation with you.  (Please note that there will be no Daily Chart Analysis for the week of June 23. The next update will be on June 30) . 
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD surges after ECB rate hikeEUR/USD is trading at 1.0948 in Europe, almost unchanged on the day. On Thursday, the euro surged 1.05% in the aftermath of the ECB rate hike. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%, the highest level since 2001. The markets were not surprised by the move but ECB President Lagarde's hawkish comments following the rate announcement may have surprised some and the euro responded with massive gains. In her press conference, Lagarde said that barring a material change, it was "very likely" that the ECB would continue raising rates in July. Lagarde dampened any thoughts of a pause, even though the eurozone economy remains fragile and growth is expected to be weak. Headline inflation has been falling sharply in the eurozone, as energy prices have fallen. This is positive news, but the ECB is more concerned about core inflation, which is a better gauge of where inflation is headed. The core rate, which excludes energy prices, has been stickier than expected. Inflation has also cooled due to the ECB's rate tightening, but the current rate of 6.1% is far too high for the central bank, which is likely to hike again in July. The Federal Reserve dramatic decision on Wednesday contained two important aspects. First, the Fed took a breather and held rates after 10 straight rate increases. Second, the Fed signalled that the pause did not indicate the end of the current rate-tightening cycle, as the Fed was projecting two more hikes in the second half of the year. Fed Chair Powell reiterated in his press conference that the inflation battle "has a long way to go" and there is every indication that Powell will keep hammering away with rate hikes until inflation falls to the 2% target. There is resistance at 1.1050 and 1.1147 1.0922 and 1.0854 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Challenges 1.0900 After ECB Delivers Rate HikeThe EUR/USD pair extended gains into a fourth consecutive day on Thursday following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise its main rates by 25 basis points, as expected. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0880 area, recording a 0.7% daily gain, having touched its highest level in a month at 1.0894. The European Central Bank announced its decision to raise the main financing rate to 4.00%, the marginal lending to 4.25% and the deposit facility rate to 3.50%. In the subsequent speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde fueled the hawkish narrative as she stated the board is "not thinking about pausing." Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve decided to skip a rate increase on Wednesday after ten consecutive increases. However, the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish words slammed prospects of rate cuts for the remainder of the year. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair's short-term bias is bullish, according to indicators on the daily chart, while the price has managed to climb back above the 20- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and now challenges the critical 1.0900 resistance area. A break above the psychological level could fuel bullish momentum and send the EUR/USD to retest the 1.0970 resistance zone ahead of 1.1000. On the other hand, the 100-day SMA at around 1.0805 is the key support to watch as a drop below would deteriorate the short-term outlook, exposing the 1.0700 zone en route to May's lows at 1.0635.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
GBPUSD DOUBLE SETUP BEFORE ECB RATESIn April, UK GDP grew by 0.2% m/m, recovering from the previous month's decline of -0.3% m/m. The rebound was driven by the services sector, with services expanding by 0.3% m/m and contributing 0.26 percentage points to overall GDP growth. The wholesale and retail sector, as well as the information and communication sector, made significant contributions. However, manufacturing and the health sector experienced declines. Manufacturing contracted by 0.3% m/m, with the pharmaceuticals sector playing a major role. The construction sector also declined by 0.6% m/m due to a slowdown in housing activity. Overall, UK GDP growth remains relatively stagnant, but PMI surveys indicate increased activity in April and May, especially in services, projecting a 0.3%-0.4% q/q growth rate for Q2. However, the extra bank holiday in May is expected to result in a significant contraction in GDP, potentially impacting the entire second quarter, although the effect on Bank of England policy is expected to be minimal. Nicola, CEO Forex48 Trading Academy
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
BluetonaFX - EURUSD KEY LEVELSHi Traders! Please see our new levels for EURUSD below. Vector Level: 1.08047 Vector Level: 1.09298 Anchor Level: 1.04833 Apex Level: 1.10956 The recent price action on the 1D chart is telling us that EURUSD is looking for a direction to continue in. We have been stuck in a range (highlighted on the chart) for the past two weeks or so, and key decisions and announcements this week from the ECB and the Federal Reserve will most likely take us in a certain direction. To the upside, if there is any USD weakness or EUR strength, our first vector level is at 1.08047; we have not been above this level for almost a month. If the market breaks and closes above this level, then we have the next vector level at 1.09298 and then our apex level at 1.10956. If there is EUR weakness or USD strength and we stay below 1.08047, then it is very likely that we will target our anchor level of 1.04833. This anchor level is a very important level, as we have not been below it this year. This trading week will be very busy with all of the upcoming fundamental announcements, and there are bound to be big market moves, so make sure you trade safely and responsibly. Please do not forget to support us by liking, following, and commenting on our posts; this helps us greatly. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2