Alibaba (BABA) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Alibaba NYSE:BABA is a global e-commerce and technology powerhouse, with leadership in online retail, cloud computing, and digital entertainment.
Key Catalysts:
Generative AI Leadership 🤖
Alibaba’s Qwen2.5 Max AI model has outperformed GPT-4 and LLaMA3.1-405B in benchmark tests, reinforcing its AI dominance.
Strategic Partnership with Apple 🍏
Integration of Alibaba’s AI models into iPhones in China could boost Alibaba Cloud adoption, driving revenue growth and market share expansion.
Cloud Computing Growth ☁️
Alibaba Cloud’s margins are projected to expand from 3% to 10% by 2026, with 18% annual revenue growth, positioning it as a $100B valuation business.
Shareholder Value Initiatives 💰
A $25B share buyback and a growing 1.2% dividend yield reflect strong financial confidence and commitment to shareholder returns.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on BABA above $108.00-$110.00, driven by AI advancements, cloud expansion, and strategic partnerships.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $185.00-$190.00, supported by cloud growth, AI innovation, and strong capital allocation.
📢 Alibaba—Powering the Future of AI, Cloud, and E-Commerce. #Alibaba #AI #CloudComputing #Ecommerce
Ecommerce
CVNA Short: Catalysts Favor a Move to the DownsideCVNA is a used car marketplace, which has enjoyed nearly a 7000% rally from lows. The company has turned around and has been a remarkable story, however given the recent earnings announcement selloff, a Gann based analysis favors a bearish trend change at least for now. Although the earnings report beat expectations, this could mark a local top for Carvana , as investors may be speculating that this is the best that Carvana can do revenue wise for now and that increasing growth rates may be hard to sustain.
As we can see here, the price has taken out the key $268.00 price support level aka, it's original 52 week high from Nov 25th. The price as of now is currently $256. The current Gann support levels are as follows: $250 psychological support level and the $256 Trendline Support level. Although we could see a bounce from the trend line and support level, I prefer an extended retracement to the $230 levels for 3 reasons:
1. Today is current day 47 of the rally from the 52 week lows of Jan 3rd . According to typical rally/reaction periods, the trend be shifting (the 45 day rally point is indicated by a red vertical line). So far this is validated by the 52 week daily close high of Feb 18th . Unless we get a move 3 points above this $291 high, we should not be worried about a possible 60-65 day rally.
If a 60-65 day rally is in fact the case, this would mark a top for CVNA at Mar 5th and Mar 10th in that case. (Marked by our red vertical lines)
2. We have a break below the old 52 week high support level of $268
3. We have a lack of strong support until the Gann 50% midpoint between the 52 week highs of Feb 19th and Jan 3rd . This midpoint noted by the horizontal blue line is around $234
STOP LOSS: $271
Set a stop loss around 3 points above the Support/Resistance level of $268 that we mentioned.
$SHOP’S Q4 2024—E-COMMERCE KING OR OVERHYPED HUSTLE?NYSE:SHOP ’S Q4 2024—E-COMMERCE KING OR OVERHYPED HUSTLE?
(1/9)
Hey Tradingview crew! Shopify’s Q4 2024 is dropping jaws 📈🔥! $2.81B in revenue—31% YoY blast—$94.5B GMV, and a fat cash flow flex. Is NYSE:SHOP the champ or just flexing? Let’s rip it open! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS BLOWOUT
• Q4 Revenue: $2.81B, +31% YoY—smoked $2.73B est. 💥
• Subscription: $666M, +27%
• Merchant Solutions: $2.15B, +33%
• EPS: $0.44, edged $0.43 est. 📊
• FCF: $611M, 22% margin— GETTEX:25M over est.
NYSE:SHOP ’s cash machine is humming!
(3/9) – BIG WINS
• GMV: $94.5B, +26%—fastest since ‘21 🚗
• Full Year: $8.88B revenue, +25.78% 🌍
• 3-Month Trials: New twist for Q1 ‘25 subs ✅
• Enterprise: 114 deals in 10 quarters—B2B up 132%!
X is buzzing— NYSE:SHOP ’s scaling like a beast!
(4/9) – SECTOR SMACKDOWN
• Market Cap: ~$151.5B, P/E 81, P/S 14.3 🌟
• Vs. NASDAQ:BIGC : Lagging, $CRM/ NASDAQ:ADBE : Broader focus
• NYSE:SHOP ’s 31% growth smokes peers—$94.5B GMV flexes
Pricey, but is it a steal for this hustle? X debates!
(5/9) – RISKS TO DODGE
• Amazon & WooCommerce: Claws out for NYSE:SHOP ’s turf 📉
• Economy: Slowdown could choke GMV ⚠️
• Tariffs: Duty hikes loom— NYSE:SHOP ’s got tools, but ouch!
• Costs: Intern army in ‘25—cash burn risk?
X says watch out—trouble’s lurking!
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Revenue: 31% YoY—$2.81B Q4 fury 🌟
• FCF: 22% Q4 margin, 18% ‘24 🔍
• Global: 33% GMV growth, EMEA +37% 🚦
NYSE:SHOP ’s an e-commerce titan—X can’t look away!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: High P/E 81, merchant reliance 💸
• Opportunities: Enterprise boom, AI tools, price hikes 🌍
Can NYSE:SHOP turn hype into gold? X wants to know!
(8/9) – NYSE:SHOP ’s Q4 is fire—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—$151.5B king keeps slaying
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s hot, but risks bite
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation’s a trap, crash incoming
Vote now—let’s brawl it out! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL BLAST
NYSE:SHOP ’s Q4 is a $2.81B thunderclap—GMV soaring, cash flowing 🌍. But competition and costs lurk. Undervalued rocket or overhyped bubble?
Shopify (SHOP) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Shopify NYSE:SHOP is a leading e-commerce platform that continues to grow by expanding into AI-driven solutions and fulfillment services, aiming to optimize merchant growth. Shopify is positioning itself as a major player in the e-commerce ecosystem, particularly with Shopify Plus, which is gaining momentum among large retailers.
Key Catalysts:
AI-Powered Tools for Merchants 🤖
Shopify is integrating AI-driven solutions to enhance marketing, inventory management, and checkout optimization, which improves merchant retention and adoption.
Enterprise Growth 📈
Shopify Plus is experiencing strong adoption among larger retailers, helping diversify revenue and reduce the company's reliance on small businesses. This supports more stable growth.
Long-Term E-commerce Growth 🌐
With e-commerce projected to grow at a 9.5% CAGR through 2030, Shopify holds a 10% market share in the U.S., positioning it for long-term growth in an expanding digital marketplace.
Financial Strength 💰
Free cash flow margin rose to 19%, underscoring Shopify’s robust financial health and ability to reinvest in future growth initiatives.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on SHOP above the $102.00-$105.00 range, driven by AI expansion, growing enterprise adoption, and strong cash flow.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $170.00-$172.00, reflecting the company’s dominance in e-commerce and its ongoing innovations.
📢 Shopify—Shaping the Future of E-Commerce and AI. #Ecommerce #AIExpansion #SHOP
JD.com (JD) AnalysisCompany Overview:
JD.com NASDAQ:JD is one of China’s leading e-commerce and logistics giants, rapidly expanding into cloud computing and AI-driven solutions. With a strong focus on efficiency, retail innovation, and policy-driven tailwinds, JD.com is well-positioned for long-term growth.
Key Catalysts:
Chinese Government's “Trade-In” Policy Boost 📈
The extended consumer electronics trade-in policy is expected to accelerate sales, driving demand across JD’s platform.
Full Acquisition of Dada Nexus 🚚
JD’s 100% ownership of Dada Nexus strengthens its last-mile delivery efficiency, improving logistics and customer satisfaction.
Omnichannel Expansion: JD MALL & JD E-Space 🏬
JD is expanding its offline footprint with JD MALL and JD E-Space, enhancing its omnichannel retail strategy for deeper customer engagement.
AI & Cloud Computing Growth ☁️
JD’s investment in cloud and AI positions it as a tech-driven e-commerce leader, driving new revenue streams.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on JD above $34.00-$35.00, supported by policy tailwinds, logistics integration, and AI-driven retail innovation.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $60.00-$62.00, reflecting enhanced logistics, e-commerce expansion, and growing cloud adoption.
📢 JD.com—Innovating E-Commerce with AI & Logistics. #JD #ECommerce #AI #CloudComputing
Can Two Tech Giants Rewrite the Rules of Digital Commerce?In a bold strategic maneuver that has captivated the financial markets, eBay and Meta have forged an unprecedented partnership that transcends traditional e-commerce boundaries. The collaboration, which sent eBay's stock soaring by 11%, represents more than just a business alliance—it signals a fundamental shift in how digital marketplaces might operate.
The timing of this partnership is particularly intriguing, coming in the wake of Meta's €798 million EU fine for alleged monopolistic practices. Rather than retreating, both companies have chosen to innovate, creating a model that could potentially satisfy regulatory concerns while expanding market opportunities. This adaptive response to regulatory challenges demonstrates how constraints can spark creative solutions in the tech industry.
The markets have responded enthusiastically to this marriage of social commerce and traditional e-commerce, with analysts predicting significant growth potential. eBay's strategic positioning of its niche offerings—from collectibles to luxury goods—combined with Facebook's massive user base creates a unique value proposition that could reshape consumer behavior and expectations. As the partnership unfolds across the United States, Germany, and France, it may well serve as a blueprint for future digital commerce evolution, challenging our understanding of market boundaries and competitive dynamics in the digital age.
VTEX: Bullish breakout potential amid consolidationThe chart illustrates VTEX forming a wedge-like consolidation pattern, signaling a potential bullish breakout in the near future. The stock has established strong support at $6.22 and faces key resistance at $8.95. The 200-day SMA is acting as a pivotal resistance level , and a breach above this could confirm a shift in momentum.
The stochastic oscillator indicates the stock is oversold, suggesting a higher probability of upward price movement. If the price breaks above the wedge, t he next significant target is the $12-$14 range , representing substantial upside potential. However, downside risks remain, with a stop-loss near $5.72 to mitigate risk .
This idea combines technical indicators, moving averages, and volume considerations to outline a high-risk, high-reward trading opportunity. Investors should remain vigilant for confirmation signals before entering a position.
When Does a $433.5 Million Settlement Become a Victory for Both In the complex landscape of corporate litigation, Alibaba's recent settlement presents a fascinating case study of modern business strategy. While the Chinese e-commerce giant agrees to pay $433.5 million to settle shareholder allegations, this decision might paradoxically represent a win-win scenario for both the company and its investors. The settlement, ranking among the top 50 largest securities class actions in U.S. history, raises intriguing questions about the balance between corporate governance and strategic business decisions.
What makes this case particularly compelling is the mathematics of risk management. When faced with potential damages of $11.63 billion, Alibaba's decision to settle for $433.5 million reveals a sophisticated calculation of risk versus reward. This settlement, representing less than 4% of the maximum potential damages, demonstrates how modern corporations can transform legal challenges into strategic opportunities for resolution and renewal.
The implications of this settlement extend far beyond Alibaba's balance sheet. As global markets increasingly scrutinize tech giants' practices, this case sets a precedent for how international corporations might navigate the complex intersection of antitrust regulations, shareholder rights, and market competition. The resolution suggests that in today's business environment, the true measure of corporate success might lie not in avoiding challenges, but in transforming them into opportunities for organizational evolution and stakeholder alignment.
MercadoLibre (MELI): A Powerhouse in Latin America! MELI is solidifying its position as a dominant player in the e-commerce and fintech markets across Latin America. With Argentina’s economic surge and aggressive expansion in Brazil and Mexico, MELI is poised for significant growth.
📈 Key Highlights:
Economic Recovery in Argentina driving e-commerce activity.
Expansion into logistics and food delivery diversifying revenue streams.
Growing adoption of Mercado Pago enhances its financial ecosystem.
While I see strong fundamentals supporting a buy rating, a 5% drop could offer a better entry point. My fair price estimate is $2,709, based on a 5 year DCF analysis.
Let's keep an eye on the support levels around $1,936 and $1,824.
#MELI #MercadoLibre #Investing #StockMarket #Ecommerce #Fintech #LatinAmerica #GrowthStocks #InvestmentOpportunities #Stocktobuy #Pullback
Alibaba (BABA): Stagnation Phase or Momentum Boost?We are currently experiencing a phase of stagnation with Alibaba, as the stock remains in a new accumulation phase after breaking out of the previous one. The price might retest the Point-of-Control along with the trendline that was broken during the breakout, potentially providing a good momentum boost.
Despite the sideways movement, our position remains profitable. From a long-term perspective, our entry looks strong, with a 10% stop-loss from our entry point. The upside potential for Alibaba is significant, given how far the stock is from its historical highs.
The main concern with Alibaba is the jurisdiction risk, as it is a Chinese stock and subject to influences from China, which adds a layer of risk not present with American stocks. Nevertheless, as long as the price stays above $72.38, the outlook remains positive. Losing this level would be unfavorable and could indicate further downside risk.
In summary, we remain optimistic about Alibaba's potential, keeping a close watch on the key support levels to manage risk effectively.
Sea Limited (SE) AnalysisCompany Overview: Sea Limited, a global consumer internet company, operates across three core businesses: e-commerce (Shopee), digital entertainment (Garena), and financial services (SeaMoney). The company has returned to growth investments to capitalize on its diverse business segments.
Key Catalysts:
E-commerce Momentum: Shopee's gross merchandise volume (GMV) forecast has been revised upward to reflect mid-20% growth, indicating strong momentum in its e-commerce segment. This renewed growth suggests that Sea's strategic investments are yielding positive results, particularly in expanding its reach across Southeast Asia and Latin America.
Gaming Recovery: Garena's flagship game, Free Fire, has seen a 19% year-over-year rebound in daily active users. This recovery signals a resurgence in the gaming division, which has long been a key revenue driver for Sea. Additionally, a potential relaunch of Free Fire in India could provide a significant boost, given the large gaming audience in the country.
Revenue Growth Outlook: Sea Limited is forecasting double-digit revenue growth for 2024, driven by Shopee's expansion, Garena's gaming resurgence, and the ongoing scaling of SeaMoney.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NYSE:SE if it holds above the $67.00-$68.00 range. Upside Potential: The upside target for Sea Limited is set at $130.00-$135.00, driven by continued e-commerce growth, gaming recovery, and potential entry into new markets.
🌊 Sea Limited—e-commerce growth and gaming rebound fuel bullish outlook! #SE #Ecommerce #Gaming 🚀📈
UPS looking DOWNSNice head and Shoulders on the United Parcel Service
#UPS and FEDEX are the new dow transport indicator.
An underlying determinant of how the consumer is faring
Since the US is a consumer economy and Online shopping is the majority of retail
if we see new highs on the Indicies, and the home delivery carriers continue to deteriorate
it would give your non confirmation Top
Similar to Dow theory of new High's in the Industrials , but the transports lagging and indeed falling.
Amazon - Two trading setups!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Amazon.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2020 Amazon stock created massive resistance roughly at the $180 level and started a major correction away from the resistance in 2022. As we are speaking Amazon stock is once again retesting this major resistance level and is therefore at a quite decisive inflection point. Either we will see a breakout or another rejection after which we could then see the overall continuation towards the upside.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
PayPal - Is the stock dead?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at PayPal.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
With the Covid-Crash in 2020 we saw a beautiful bullish break and retest on PayPal in confluence with a retest of an ascending trendline. This retest was followed by a rally of +200% towards the upside. From there, PayPal stock declined more than 80% and it is likely that we will never ever see the previous highs again. If you decide to take a trade though, make sure to properly manage your risk.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
A Promising Investment in Africa's E-commerceNYSE:JMIA is retesting the $5 support level which is a major point of interest. Bouncing off this level is a good sign for strong buyer interest and a sign of further uptrend.
Bullish Case
Growing e-commerce market in Africa: Africa has a rapidly growing middle class and a young, tech-savvy population. This presents a significant opportunity for e-commerce companies like Jumia to tap into the expanding market and capture a substantial share of the growing online retail sector.
First-mover advantage: Jumia is often referred to as the "Amazon of Africa" due to its dominant position in the African e-commerce market. As the first major player in the region, Jumia has built a strong brand and established a network of customers, sellers, and logistics partners, giving it a competitive advantage over potential new entrants.
It's official, I'm up +50% on my #Zalando position... $ZAL $ZLNDEuropean retail is bouncing back with vigor...
Trading at 80.8% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 28.45% per year
Earnings grew by 394% over the past year
My target is still around $30 30 euros...
However, after this 50% rise, I'm afraid the squeeze will run out of steam and shorts will take over again...
Amazon - Massive Resistance AheadHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Amazon.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
With the quite obvious and expected channel breakout in 2016, we saw a rally of more than 500% towards the upside on Amazon. This pump was followed by a retracement back to a previous support level before we saw another bullish reversal. If Amazon breaks back above the structure mentioned in the analysis, market behaviour is bullish and I will be looking for longs.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
I’d Like to Be, Under the $SELong term buys from here down to a possible gap fill (low 30's from 2019-2020 pre pump to 300s) have a great R:R if you have a long enough time horizon. Company is putting in the money now to have effortless positive earnings/share in the future. Hard to ignore at these levels with the CEO still so heavily invested and holding strong. Long term price target > $100 and willing to hold for 5+ years to possibly see >200 and a run to ATH for a 10x. Buying anything barring new information.
AMAZON 1st bullish break-out made. Only the 1D MA50 left.Amazon (AMZN) made a Channel Down Lower Low on Thursday just before hitting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and following the higher than expected earnings opened Friday much higher. That price jump broke above the September 14 Lower Highs trend-line. The 2nd and final bullish break-out we expect before buying again for the long-term will be above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is where the October 12 rejection took place.
A candle closing above it, would invalidate the medium-term bearish bias and most likely restore the stock back on long-term bullish trend. The 1D RSI Double Bottom is what at the moment is shifting the sentiment a little more towards a potential bullish break-out. On the other hand, a break below the 4H MA200 will cancel it. Our target is 146.00, just under the August 16 2022 High.
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UPS Confirms Lower High Bearish Consolidation Below Demand LineThe UPS price action has confirmed a Lower High Bearish Consolidation Structure below the macro Demand Line has basically done so via a secondary Head and Shoulders with PPO Confirmation thereby confirming a Bearish BAMM that will likely take us down to the 88.6% retrace at $90
QRTEA is in a bottleneckIt appears QRTEA is facing a bottleneck once we draw the bollinger band on a weekly basis, meaning low volatility, this situation usually do not take too long before it starts to widen up. We have a positive EMA Cross which can be considered as a bullish signal. If we take both indicators together, it may be possible to expect a maeaningful ride on price during these days or weeks.
Finally we know Michael Burry invested over $1.5M on this company during 2Q 2023 at $0.99, so he was (or is) optimistic about the future of this company at that price, thus considering the current price (which is 14% lower vs Burry's), is a great opportunity to capitalize on this. Stay alert.
Support: 0.80
Resistance: 1.2