Skeptic | EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Breakout or Reversal?Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic.
Today, we're diving deep into EUR/USD , analyzing key levels and potential triggers.
🔍Recap & Current Structure:
As mentioned in our previous analysis , after the previous uptrend, EUR/USD entered a consolidation phase. Our short trigger at 1.07124 played out well, reaching an R/R of 2—if you followed the idea, you saw the results!
Now, we’ve formed a new structure , which is more visible on the 1H timeframe. After breaking the descending trendline and pulling back , we've now created a higher high , indicating a potential move toward the top of the box at 1.09453 .
With DXY weakening, the expectation leans towards an uptrend continuation, but we remain flexible—if our short trigger activates, we'll take it as well because we approach the market with a two-sided, skeptical view rather than a fixed bias.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
Trigger: Break & close above 1.08454
Confirmation: 7 SMA below the candle during the breakout + RSI entering overbought
]Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 1.07666
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
Trigger: Rejection at 1.08278 + drop below 1.07666
Confirmation: RSI entering oversold
⚠️ Key Notes:
Fundamentals: This Friday is NFP day—a crucial event for the markets.
Given the recent uptrend in EUR/USD, a pullback is likely, so stay prepared for both triggers.
Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks before entering.
Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
