Get started

Economic

Commodity Outlook: Cyclical pressures vs structural strengthsCommodities have been enjoying a strong revival in recent years, with broad commodities returning 27% in 2021 and 15% in 2022. A combination of fiscal and monetary support in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic helped to soften the damage to demand from one of the deepest economic shocks in modern times. As COVID-19 restrictions lifted, commodity demand bounced back strongly. In 2022, the Ukrainian invasion presented a supply shock, restricting energy and agricultural product supplies and further supporting commodity prices. Whilst many developed world central banks tightened monetary policy in the first half of 2022, inflationary pressures became the most extreme since 1981. Commodities proved again to be one of the best asset classes to hedge this extreme inflation. After arguably falling behind the curve, developed world central banks sought to get ahead and became the most hawkish since the early 1980s. Commodities emerged as a refuge in the storm. Cyclical headwinds have emerged Commodities, often seen as a late-cycle asset performer, struggled in late-2022. Energy prices, which had been propelling the asset class, declined by Q3 2022, joining metals, which had been weak since Q1 2022. Economic deceleration resulting from monetary tightening in developed nations weighed on the asset class. Composite lead indicators (CLIs)—designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles—turned decisively even before 2022 started. Commodity performance peaked later in 2022. CLIs are still declining, indicating the cyclical headwinds faced by commodities are still present. China reopening to counter economic headwinds elsewhere The global economic rebound experienced in 2021 and 2022, and the accompanying commodity rally, occurred largely without China’s contribution. Chinese policy makers pursuing a zero-COVID policy up until November 2022 hamstrung their economy, and growth was disappointing. Although Chinese exports remained relatively strong due to international demand for Chinese goods, constant supply disruptions restrained export volumes during the zero-COVID period. Now that China has abandoned its zero-COVID policies, domestic economic activity is picking up strongly. In fact, the January and February prints of Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) in 2023 look encouraging. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs rose clearly above 50 (the demarcation between growth and contraction). The February figure (released on 01/03/2023) showed manufacturing PMIs hitting levels not seen since 2012, underscoring that the domestically driven recovery is reaching industry as well as services (manufacturing is more commodity-intense than services, so that is arguably the most important of two indicators). What about the commodity supercycle? We believe commodities should see long-term structural support from an energy transition and an infrastructure spending rebound. Furthermore, these catalysts could drive another supercycle in commodities. Supercycles coincide with periods of industrialisation and urbanisation when the supply of commodities failed to keep up with the growth in demand. The last supercycle occurred after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, which turbocharged development as barriers to commerce were removed. After two strong years of commodity market performance (2021 and 2022), could we be on the cusp of another supercycle? We believe there are some strong structural underpinnings but, for now, business cycle dynamics (including a rising risk of recession) could dominate price behaviour in the short term. Energy transition In a scenario where net zero emissions are targeted by 2050 in order to limit temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, we should see a significant rise in demand for metals. Metals are critical for the manufacture of batteries, electrification of power energy consumption, electrolysers, heat pumps, and other technologies needed for the energy transition. International Energy Agency data indicates that, in a net zero emissions scenario, supplies of critical materials are going to be woefully short of demand, both in terms of mining and material production. Infrastructure rebound In the US, three Acts with partially overlapping priorities - the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill (2021), the CHIPS and Science Act (August 2022), and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA, August 2022) – have a combined budget of close to US$2 trillion in federal spending and the infrastructure intensive projects are only just starting. Just looking at the energy funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, a total of US$370 billion is earmarked to be spent over the next 5 to 10 years, primarily to facilitate the clean energy transition. The IRA encourages the procurement of critical supplies domestically. In order to meet the supply chain requirements, we expect large infrastructure spending on mineral extraction, processing and manufacturing. The European Union’s REPowerEU plan—designed to wean the economic bloc off Russian hydrocarbon dependency—will also require a large spend on energy infrastructure. The EU is already building liquified natural gas capacity at breakneck speed, aiming to expand capacity by one-third by 2024.1 The EU estimates that delivering the REPowerEU objectives will require an additional investment of €210 billion between 2022 and 2027. The green industrial ‘arms race’ takes off After decades of underspending for the climate policy goals governments have signed up to, we may be witnessing a tipping point. Some of the protective features of IRA (regional sourcing requirements) may propel tit-for-tat policies that drive local sourcing elsewhere. Many nations recognising China’s dominance in critical materials had already been designing policies to mitigate the risk of overreliance on the country. This process is likely to drive an upsurge in ex-China green infrastructure spending globally. Conclusions After several years of commodity market outperformance, the asset class is already experiencing cyclical headwinds. However, a China reopening is likely to mitigate some of these pressures, and we are seeing tentative evidence of China’s economy rebounding. Commodities are likely to be underpinned by global policy support for an energy transition. Whilst general infrastructure spending may also face cyclical headwinds this year, green infrastructure spending is likely to lead to a new ‘arms race’ as countries compete to support their industries and maintain energy/resource security.
CBOT:AW1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
UBIX is a Silent bomb! This is why:The collaboration with the Acceleration Group: Surveillance footage notarized by silent notary (build on the Ubix network) is a huge accomplishment! The Acceleration Group is far from a small company if you know what it is.... Just insane! Also the collaboration with Langia, just amazing...! The REAL USE CASE the Ubix Network Team is providing is just stunning! People, UBX is/was hidden for a reason. I have no doubt this protocol is going to explode in the near future. It provides an actual real life use cases on global scale... And will provide much more in the future. The growth of the protocol is from self speaking. USE CASE + USE CASE + USE CASE + GLOBE = ECONOMIC GROWTH TREMENDOUSLY! Fundamental UBIX passes the test! Mind blowing!
ULong
by UnknownUnicorn27344900
2
SPY- Bullish Reversal - UpdateThe SPY closed out the week strong after finally getting some strong bullish momentum as a result of the CPI & Jobless Claim Data that came out on Thursday. If CPI continues to decrease as it did, I can certainly see the SPY gaining even more traction and finally breaking out of the bearish megaphone that it has been holding since November 2021. Subsequently, the SPY closed on Friday reclaiming both its 50, and 100-Day SMA's, as well as having the EMA's starting to curl upwards. The SPY is currently flagging on the weekly timeframe and couldn't look better at the moment, while there's a potential for a slight rising wedge to have formed, the plethora of bullish technical, and fundamental indicators will invalidate this wedge even if it does fully form (See Attached Chart Below). On top of this, there is a considerable amount of hidden bullish divergence on the RSI as well as a bullish ABCD Harmonic Pattern Forming. The coming week will undoubtedly be a make-or-break type of week with the SPY going to test its 200-day SMA, which has been acting as strong resistance, especially considering all of the economic data coming out throughout the week. Personally, am bullish here and looking for a breakout on the upside, in my opinion, the drop in CPI could've been the catalyst for the markets to start heading upward and break the downtrend they've been holding. Some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the interim, Bullish and hedged for the time being, which I hope to cut- --See Previous Charts Attached Below-- --Weekly Timeframe-- --Previously Charted--
AMEX:SPYLong
by jacobosiason7
1
SPY - Update (From Nov. 2021)Posting an update on the SPY here as the markets closed out the week in somewhat of a make or break spot. The SPY continued to follow the bearish megaphone that it's been holding for months, while simultaneously holding the downtrend stemming from a massive head and shoulders on the SPY's weekly timeframe (See Attached Charts Below). A bearish bat harmonic pattern also formed on the SPY on Friday, as it broke below a strong support level circa $368.27 and closed near its 52-Week low at $362.17. This comes as seller volume continues to outweigh buyer volume as the markets head into a big week economically speaking. In the upcoming week, economic data and events include New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, International Trade Numbers, Jobless Claims, and to cap off the week, GDP Numbers as well. Treading lightly here, some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the interim, bearish and hedged- --Previous Charts Attached Below-- Weekly TimeFrame Testing Key Levels From 2020 --Previously Charted--
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
1
⁉️ Economic calendar week 19.09-23.09 Hello traders! ✅ The upcoming week will be full of events. The most important are central bank meetings in USA, Switzerland and UK as we expect to have an increase of bank rate. ✅ During FED Meeting market watchers will be on high alert for how the U.S. central bank views the current pace of monetary tightening, the strength of the economy, and how likely inflation is to persist - as well as signs of how the balance sheet unwind is proceeding. ✅ The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday with officials expected to deliver a 75-basis-point rate hike, matching the European Central Bank’s recent move even though inflation in the Eurozone is far outstripping Switzerland. ✅ The Bank of Japan also meets on Thursday amid speculation that Japanese authorities are close to intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the weak yen, which hit a 24-year low against the dollar earlier this month. My recommendation is to avoid trading during this events.
by Snick3rSD
AVCTif youre in this play. we pulled back and tested this break out zone at around 0.20c. tomorow willl be big when we get jobs market data. so we pulled back and now testing that zone. also the 200 simple is in the same place we"ll want to see if that turns into support. for bulls you want to see this hold and turn it into solid support then get over 0.24c and rip. for bears you want to stay below 0.24 if you can, thats what id look for then to the next level if breached. these are very volitle in each direction, so be careful. im keeping an eye on it. i have a few tickers like this im just having fun with, im not sure about any news catalyst or anything yet. ill be doing dd tonight. but id assume anything would likely get it moving in corresponding direction. Usually this is the lowest volitile week of the year. and it was the MOST volitle. ~This is the year of the active trader. happy trading.~
A
by Jbridgez
Dont be greedy on IXICAs I posted IXIC price movement speculation a year ago or so, now I want to warn you this is only one of the possibilities. As we kno the price movement can choose only between two dirrefent directions. Either up or down. But now it looks too good to be true to me. But this time is different. With all the world situation and economic war between US and most of the worlds countries, media propaganda about big bear in front of our economy, europe automobile industry "cold". This is all the signt, that tells us be cautious. Be prepared to go at least "half-in" if the price starts to form higher lows on weekly chart. I Will give you updates about my movements and taught, what I think about this crap. See you down here eventually, Wish you luck, DonLobster
NASDAQ:IXIC
by donlobster
3
SPY- Bearish- UpdateJust posting a quick update on the SPY here as on Friday we saw a hard rejection of the 400 level. The SPY closed out the week reclaiming its 50-day EMA and is sitting right on it at the moment, however, it rejected the 400 mark multiple times on Friday. Additionally, a bearish ABCD Elliot Wave has fully formed on the daily timeframe accompanied with some bearish hidden divergence on the RSI. Seems as if this bearish megaphone is continuing to play out so will be treading lightly at the moment. Lastly, certainly worthwhile to note the importance of the upcoming week economically speaking. This coming Wednesday there's the upcoming FOMC announcement pertaining to inflation and interest rates, followed by the Fed Chair Press Conference, as well as various other economic data of the likes of GDP data, and new home sales. Staying hedged & scaling into long-term buying opportunities. Just some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime - (Previous Charts Attached Below). --Previously Charted--
AMEX:SPYShort
by jacobosiason7
1
THE NEXT ECONOMIC CRISIS IS IN FRONT OF USTo see what will happen in the economic world, we must look more broadly at what has happened, but in this analysis I will use technical analysis patterns to predict what will happen. What happened?/b] 1. Gold is clearly visible in the cup and handle pattern An uptrend followed by a cup and handle pattern in technical analysis means that the price will continue to rise at least it will touch the height according to the cup height. 2. The S&P 500 is already too high After the COVID-19 pandemic which caused a severe crash on the stock market, it turned out not to be as bad as I imagined, the market was actually getting faster to an all time high level. It has gone too high and needs to be restarted again. 3. Bitcoin is still too high and needs a little correction In the 10x rally that occurred in bitcoin in 2020 and then followed by a crash with a decline of more than 50%. But it turned out that bitcoin touched its all-time high again and fell again, but when I saw the bitcoin chart, it seems that bitcoin should need a long correction before rallying again. Conclusion By looking at some of the factors above and supported by various fundamental factors such as inflation that is too high, world wars are everywhere and several other factors, investors will move their money to safe heaven assets, namely gold which is supported by cup and handle patterns. At that time bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be slightly corrected, when gold has surpassed the all time high, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will immediately crawl up and touch their all time high. I don't care about your laughing at this nonsense analysis. But this is my personal analysis that I share with you. I am not a financial advisor. Thank you
TVC:GOLD
by dhiyaulhaqza
1
10Y U.S Bond Yield Signaling Rotation from Growth to Value StockTVC:US10Y I'm just looking at the 10Y U.S bond yield to try and better pinpoint the overall macro conditions to expect for the equity market this year. Based on my technical analysis, 10YUS yield is currently trading in an Elliot Wave 5 wave ABCDE pattern, it's inside a triangle that seems to also be the extension of a cup and handle bullish formation. The (D) pattern just reached the top of the triangle pattern, CCI indicator is also on the higher end which indicates the likelihood that this pattern will play out. Right now it looks like it's headed to the (E) phase of the pattern, which is the final phase of the correction before initiating a strong uptrend that could have the 10YUS yield reach 2% or higher (even potential of going pre-pandemic levels). Fundamentals also align with my theory that bond yields will fall from here on until about March, which is also when FED is expected to reverse QE (quantitative easing). After the (E) phase of the EW has been reached, I suspect a massive breakout in bond yields, which can cause a drop in equity markets along with an overall sector rotation from growth to value stock.
TVC:US10Y
by TheRealWolfette
$DXY dead men tell no tales*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* What's up guys! We are here to shed some light on this insane violability that the market has been experiencing these past couple of weeks. To start off, this upcoming "Santa Rally" that you may be hearing about is solely dependent on $DXY retracing to retest our trendline support. If $DXY were to however break through $97 resistance this week you should expect $SPY, cryptos, and even oil to fall. The Federal Reserve FOMC announcement on December 15, 2021 is likely the catalyst that will either send $DXY back down to retest our trendline, or launch it through $97 resistance. Please be aware that my team fully believes that the weight of the U.S dollar should dramatically increase within a few weeks regardless, and can only be delayed by an undecisive decision by the Feds temporarily. !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXY
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
5
$SPYStock market news live updates: S&P 500 reaches record high, traders eye Biden's infrastructure proposal Stocks jumped to record levels on Wednesday as technology stocks recovered losses from Tuesday's session. Traders digested the contours of President Joe Biden's infrastructure proposal, which would include trillions of dollars in government spending as well as new changes to tax policy. The S&P 500 rose by 0.4% to reach a fresh record intraday high. The index's month-to-date gain came out to more than 4%, marking its best monthly performance since November. The Nasdaq outperformed, gaining just over 2% at session highs as technology stocks outperformed. The Dow hovered near the flat line. A day earlier, the Dow dropped for the first time in four sessions, and each of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined. Shares of big bank stocks recovered some declines from earlier this week, though shares of Nomura and Credit Suisse added to losses as the lenders assessed the losses they would incur after the hedge fund Archegos Capital defaulted on significant margin calls last week. Traders will be eyeing President Joe Biden's latest public address on Wednesday, which is expected to include details around his infrastructure plan for the country. The White House released a statement about the plan ahead of the address, noting that it would involve more than $2 trillion in total spending over eight years to help rehabilitate and build out the country's infrastructure, address the crisis around climate change and curb economic inequality. To pay for the proposal, Biden will propose raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21% for 15 years, and implementing other policies to disincentivize offshoring. Wednesday also marks the final session of both March and the first quarter. For the year-to-date, small cap stocks as well as the cyclical energy, financials and industrials sectors – or the biggest under-performers of 2020 – have outperformed strongly, while last year's leading technology companies have lagged. This rotation has coincided with a faster-than-anticipated vaccination program in the U.S., as well as an influx of estimates-topping economic data. Wednesday morning, ADP reported that private payrolls grew by 517,000 in the U.S. in March, marking the best gain since September. Still, however, investors have been nervously looking for signs that the stimulus-aided post-pandemic recovery is bringing with it an unwanted rapid rise in inflation. The latest march higher in Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising to more than 1.75% this week, has reinforced these apprehensions. But with these concerns now well-known, some of the next market catalysts will likely be around whether fears around fast-rising prices ultimately come to fruition, some analysts said. "We’ve been on this ride probably for two quarters now where interest rates are really driving everything … We’re likely to still see interest rates continue to rise, which is healthy and normal and you’d expect to see that in a recovery," Tim Courtney, Exencial Wealth Advisors chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance. "But I think there’s going to be something else that’s going to start to take over here within the next month or so, and that is, the market is going to start to pivot from a recovery, say, interest rate story, to to see the proof," he added. "So I think that interest rates dictating the market behavior will still be a main factor, but earnings coming up for the first quarter and economic data are going to be top of the list items that investors are going to want to see." — 4:03 p.m. ET: S&P 500 jumps to a record closing high, gaining 4.3% in March for its best month since November Here were the main moves in markets as of 4:03 p.m. ET: S&P 500 (^GSPC): +14.55 (+0.37%) to 3,973.10 Dow (^DJI): -83.83 (-0.25%) to 32,983.13 Nasdaq (^IXIC): +201.48 (+1.54%) to 13,246.87 Crude (CL=F): -$1.24 (-2.05%) to $59.31 a barrel Gold (GC=F): +$22.00 (+1.30%) to $1,708.00 per ounce 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +2 bps to yield 1.7460% — 12:42 p.m. ET: Stocks extend gains, Nasdaq adds nearly 2% The three major indexes held higher in afternoon trading, with the S&P 500 trading at an all-time high. The information technology, consumer discretionary and communication services sectors outperformed, while materials, financials and energy stocks lagged. Here were the main moves in markets during the afternoon session: S&P 500 (^GSPC): +31.85 points (+0.8%) to 3,990.40 Dow (^DJI): +30.75 points (+0.09%) to 33,097.71 Nasdaq (^IXIC): +252.11 points (+1.94%) to 13,297.99 Crude (CL=F): +$0.36 (+0.59%) to $60.91 a barrel Gold (GC=F): +$24.50 (+1.45%) to $1,710.50 per ounce 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.2 bps to yield 1.714% — 10:10 a.m. ET: Nomura, Credit Suisse shares extend losses in wake of Archegos Capital implosion Shares of Nomura and Credit Suisse added to steep losses on Wednesday as the companies prepared to incur major losses after Archegos Capital defaulted on significant margin calls last week. Credit Suisse's about 4% share price drop on Wednesday brought the stock's decline for the week to about 20%, while Nomura fell another 3%. — 10:05 a.m. ET: Pending home sales plunged by the most since April 2020 in February Pending home sales slumped last month as inclement weather and tight inventory weighed further on the housing market at the start of the year. The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday morning that pending home sales fell by 10.6% in February from a month earlier, marking a second straight monthly decline. Consensus economists were looking for pending home sales to fall by just 3%, according to Bloomberg data. Over last year, pending home sales fell 2.7%, not accounting for seasonal adjustments. — 9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open higher Here's where markets were trading shortly after the opening bell Wednesday morning: S&P 500 (^GSPC): +13.34 points (+0.34%) to 3,971.89 Dow (^DJI): +88.09 points (+0.27%) to 33,155.05 Nasdaq (^IXIC): +89.25 points (+0.66%) to 13,131.18 Crude (CL=F): -$0.41 (-0.68%) to $60.14 a barrel Gold (GC=F): +$2.10 (+0.12%) to $1,688.10 per ounce 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -0.5 bps to yield 1.721% — 8:30 a.m. ET: Private payrolls rose by 517,000 in March: ADP U.S. private employers added back more than half a million jobs in March for the best gain since September, according to a report from ADP on Wednesday. However, job growth still slightly missed expectations, even as February's inclement weather abated and the domestic vaccination program picked up steam. Private payrolls grew by 517,000 in March, ADP said. This followed a revised gain of 176,000 in February, up from the 117,000 previously reported. Consensus economists were looking for domestic private employers to bring back 550,000 jobs during the month, according to Bloomberg data. The services sector again handily led the way in recovering jobs, with service-providing payrolls climbing by 437,000 in March. Leisure and hospitality industries made the largest advances, with payrolls rising by 169,000. Trade, transportation and utilities jobs also rose by 92,000, and professional and business services jobs rose by 83,000. The goods-producing sector also posted net private payroll gains in March, with these increasing by 80,000. Construction and manufacturing jobs rose by 32,000 and 49,000, respectively, though mining positions edged lower by 1,000. — 7:20 a.m. ET: Pfizer shares rise after company says its COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective in children as young as 12 Pfizer (PFE) announced on Wednesday that data from its latest study showed that the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with BioNTech (BNTX) was safe and effective in preventing COVID-19 in children as young as 12. The late-stage trial comprised 2,260 U.S. volunteers between the ages of 12 and 15. There were no cases of COVID-19 among those who received full vaccination, versus those who were given placebos, Pfizer said. The study has yet to be peer reviewed for publication. — 7:15 a.m. ET Wednesday: Stock futures trade mixed, with technology shares outperforming Here's where markets were trading heading into the regular trading day on Wednesday: S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,951.75, +4 point, or 0.1% Dow futures (YM=F): 32,899.00, -26 points or 0.08% Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 12,951.25, +73 points or 0.57% Crude (CL=F): -$0.06 (-0.1%) to $60.49 a barrel Gold (GC=F): +$1.50 (+0.09%) to $1,687.50 per ounce 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -0.7 bps to yield 1.719% — 6:00 p.m. ET Tuesday: Stock futures tick up as overnight session begins Here's where markets were trading Tuesday evening: S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,948.75, +1 point, or 0.03% Dow futures (YM=F): 33,939.00, +14 points or 0.04% Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 12888.00, +9.75 points or 0.08%
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn19246015
The end of the west is closeIf I had to make a guess I would say Bitcoin will top and crash in June, and the stock market will have its big Niagara falls in September and this will symbolically mark the beginning of the end. It could happen later, the later it happens the worse it gets. This info is easy to find, no need to list all my sources. The population is getting older, and migrants will stop coming to support retirements Yes the population of Europe is old, and it keeps getting worst. Until last year, when China made its own economic/monetary zone any attempt at challenge to the USD was crushed. Since the fall of the USSR obviously. A journalist that read Hilary mails wrote this: "So do you think it would it be easier for the Obama administration to rally American support behind this 'regime change' by explaining how the French wanted to steal Libya's wealth and maintain French neocolonial influence over Africa - or would Americans respond better to propaganda themes about Gaddafi passing out Viagra to his troops so they could rape more women while his snipers targeted innocent children? Bingo!" And the truth is always "conspiracy theory". Lmao western public opinion is mentally retarded I swear. If I am correct back in 2017 Ghana president told france "gtfo" (politely), "we don't want your help anymore" and he explained that african migrants are like italian migrants of the last century, they'll stop running away as the countries grow, and they are growing. In 2019 the same man called the african diaspora to bring back stolen wealth in front of Macron, called the African-European relation non-natural, and criticized the narrative of "poor desperate people running away for a better life". He reminds that 1/4 of Chinese investments that made it grow into what it became came from chinese migrants, sending money back home. A link to the official page of the event by french "white house": www.elysee.fr Ghana president even said what I've been repeating for long! I love it! "We have to change the narrative about africa, and we can only do it ourselves. We have to get away from the idea that there is a father christmas somewhere that is going to come develop our continent for us." Lmao and tell this to western pro "free stuff". Ghaddafi got killed for less than this but Akufo-Addo is still breathing. The numbers are out there, the western population is aging, the working age population is in a downtrend, US & EU are desperate for working and taxpaying migrants. I'm not sure if this covid lockdown thing made things worse, or if it is creating austerity, people still work and produce but they consume less. Plus migration is a big ponzi scheme, their children are not integrated at all, all unemployed, and often small time criminals. So you got to bring in even MOAR migrants to also pay for the welfare of the previous migrant's children. Debt and spending to GDP is ridiculous As "leftists" have pointed out so much, inequality has been growing in the past ~60 years. France spends 60% of its fake GDP. It's fake because they add to actual production government spending which produces nothing, they just tax themselves it's not real wealth. Growth died at least 10 years ago, and what they pretend is growth now is actually just taxing yourself to spend your money and count it twice. At least the USSR was honest about this... If it was real wealth, and you know, west Europe was so much stronger than other countries, far above them, why would they need the US to defend them against Russia & Turkey? A vastly greater economy should have no issue defending itself, military power follows even if it is ignored. You know what is funny about inequality growing in the past 60 years? It is directly correlated to government transfers (you know, of money, like welfare) :) Of course, masterminds are asking for even MOAR of it! I guess 60 years is not enough time for the info to reach the brain. 60 years ago government transfers in the US represented less than 5% of americans income. In 2020 it has grown steadily (but exponentially) to 30%, ballooned a bit recently. Now where did I see this number before let me think. Of right! Rome. Rome had no grain future market so prices fluctuated a lot, and the senate/officials bought futures from Egypt and when the price went up too much they covered the difference for those that could not afford bread. Obviously as always it kept escalating and by 45 BC, 1 year before Caesar death the system was super abused (they'd argue that they had no choice LOL SURE). 30% of Rome was getting free bread (not just the difference in price), Caesar was aware this was just nuts and he cut this number in 2. But this did not save the republic. Senators that abhorred Caesar and were unable to bipartisan impeach him after he crossed the rubicon, bipartisan stabbed him to death the next year. And then it all degenerated into a massive civil war and 17 years after his death the Roman Empire was born. GG. Michael Burry has also drawn parallels with Germany just before Hitler. Bill Ackman which is famous for being VERY VERY VERY wrong AND stubborn when he is wrong, repeated his short bet like last year, but I think he is too early. I now have access to american options, I will purchase some puts this summer I think. China will collect its debts China has openly panicked about their giant foreign currency bags, they are afraid they go to zero and they got scammed after working for decades. last year they caused the big downtrend of the USD starting in the summer or even earlier but I think China started selling in summer, the downtrend against their currency is still going. They cannot do this with the US (who knows though) but with Europe? Haha good luck grandpas. China will send an armada, put their foot on land and say "Can't pay? No problem, we'll take what we want". They made it abundantly clear they were not going to bend over and let westerners literally scam them out of what was theirs. They worked and exported for several decades, and they won't just take it with a smile and say "oh well tough luck", the debt owed to China will not magically disappear and let's all forget about it and just go about our day. I can guarentee this. How delusional? China will come to Europe, and they will take your monuments, they will take your bridges, they will take your factories, they will take your doctors, they will take your engineers, they will take your gold. This may sound like a bad movie plot, exagerated or whatever, but it has happened. And it WILL happen. Hey recently Elliot management vulture-man went to Argentina and tried taking their warships. But he is just a man. China WILL take Europe warships. China is not a solo billionaire dude. They will be able to leave with what they want. This leads to war but it won't lead to war here, what will pathetic lazy sedentary comfy 60 year old west europeans do? Shut up and submit. A grim conclusion, but each man for himself, if we prepare we can do well, and let them sort this mess. My destination will be England or North Africa. Good luck liberals. The west is going to die. And it will all snowball. Their weakining will lead to more weakening. As they decline they won't be able to defend their interest so it will all fall apart. This is all long term analysing, but what was predictable for decades is now becoming reality. And it might all start accelerating violently this very year. If you thought 2020 was bad I got news for you... The west won't be able to continue to enforce their ponzi currency the us dollar. It has even already began in asia. Huge news that went under the radar in maintream. The west won't be able to continue neo-colonialism and the pillage of Africa. The west won't be able to continue to spread propaganda. The west won't be able to continue to suck in working age migrants to support their massive senior population. The west won't have enough of their own population to be able to support their seniors. The west will get a lost century like Japan got a lost decade. The west non native populations will leave & those that stay rebel. The west will get plundered by China that will take what is rightfully theirs. The west will degenerate into civil war with the end of democracy as result, I don't know if the next government will be fascists but they will be called fascists. No matter the turn of events, no matter what miracles happen, in any case there is 0 possibility to support all these old people, and they will die. It is 100% impossible to give a high standard of living and good medical treatment to so many seniors. It's not socialism versus capitalism here. It's just maths at that point. This is not sarcasm or an expression, they will DIE, in the literal sense. Like what happens when they get covid, but this will be like 1000 covids. They will DIE. DIE. DIE. DIE. Those that made children will have kids to take care of them. Those without kids had "their fun" right? They did not want to waste years of their lives right? Then isn't it normal if they die a few years earlier? Welcome to nature. The UK might survive while France, Germany, Benelux, and Italy sink into this mess, the UK has always survived. No need to mention Portugal and Spain that are already third world countries.
by MrRenev
12
What to do around Major Economic News?Generally, price action traders believe that price discounts every factor that may influence a security's price. But you should Not Ignore Major (High Impact) Economic News Announcements like: Interest Rate decisions, Non-Farm Payroll, FOMC, Crude Oil inventories, and so on... REASON: - If you did take a trade in line with the result of the economic news release you stand to make a lot more money in a very short period of time. - But if your trade direction was against the news, you can walk away with all your profits wiped out or even a loss, and the loss can be huge because markets can move so fast during that period that your stop loss might not get triggered; so you end up losing much more of what you intended to lose. WHAT TO DO? As per my trading plan, I check the news calendar every Monday, and before the news release, I follow the table as per the picture above. Always think in terms of Risk vs Reward. For example: I always target (+2R) double the stop loss size and let's say my trade is floating around +1.8R If the news was in my favor, I would earn that extra +0.2R But if the news was against my trade direction, I would lose the 1.8R In this particular example Risk (losing 1.8R) >>> Reward (earning extra 0.2R) so I close the trade before the news release and book that +1.8R All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TheSignalyst
113
AUDJPY LongThe Australian Dollar has seen strength against the Yen for the past couple of months and I expect it will continue moving into next week. The Aussie did well while some uncertainty loomed this week over unemployment numbers, the expectations were beat by .1% not causing much fluctuation in the pair. This isn't the main reason for this trade however, this is mostly a play on the Dollars continued recovery after also beating expectations this week. The contra-positive relationship it holds against the Yen makes this pair work in my favor as the Yen struggles against the dollar. The reason I don't just trade USDJPY or a different USD pair is to avoid too giving myself too much direct exposure to the dollar, as the Fed will be meeting next week, and I would like to protect myself from volatility.
Long
by crawfordpaul
1
WEEK AHEAD IN THE MARKETSTHE ECONOMIC CALENDAR #INVEST.COM Week Ahead All times listed are EST Sunday 18:50: Japan – Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index: expected to rise to -6 from -12. Monday 21:00: China – Industrial Production: seen to edge up to 7.0% from 6.9%. Tuesday 2:00: UK – Claimant Count Change: anticipated to soar to 50.0K from -29.8K. Wednesday 2:00: UK – CPI: probably edged down to 0.6% from 0.7%. 3:30: Germany – Manufacturing PMI: forecast to slip to 56.5 from 57.8. 4:30: UK – Manufacturing and Services PMI: seen to edge higher, to 55.9 and 50.5 respectively. 8:30: US – Core Retail Sales: to fall 0.1% from 0.2%. 10:30: US – Crude Oil Inventories: to plummet to 1.424M from 15.189M. 14:00: US – Fed Interest Rate Decision: predicted to remain steady at 0.25%. 19:30: Australia – Employment Change: forecast to plunge to 50.0K from 178.8K Thursday 3:30: Switzerland – SNB Interest Rate Decision: anticipated to stay at -0.75%. 5:00: Eurozone – CPI: to remain flat at -0.3%. 7:00: UK – BoE Interest Rate Decision: expected to hold at 0.10%. 8:30: US – Building Permits: to edge higher to 1.550M from 1.544M. 8:30: US – Initial Jobless Claims: seen to ease to 800K from 853K. 8:30: US – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: to drop to 19.0 from 26.3. Tentative: Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision: expected to hold at -0.10%. Friday 2:00: UK – Retail Sales: anticipated to plunge to -4.2% from 1.2%. 4:00: Germany – Ifo Business Climate Index: seen to edge to 90.5 from 90.7 5:30: Russia – Interest Rate Decision: predicted to keep rates steady at 4.25%. 8:30: Canada – {{ecl-65||Core Retail Sales: seen to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%.
TVC:DXY
by PULEMokhothu
overview to next week (fundemental)notice !! :(( the chart linked to this is just a funny view of chart so nothing to do with it )) ok traders i was looking at next seven days economic calendar and my overall idea about next weeks economic events is that it may result in having a bearish trend on eur usd, its not like that it is completely bearish but a mixed bearish bias. other thing that i wanted to talk about is im completely lost in news and analyses , ive heard it can reach to 1.20 and mostly people talking about eur usd going up, however it is possible but i most believe it may go down thats just a feeling. for final speech im a day trader and usually my trades wont last for more than 8 hours, so this weekly perspective to me just look like an extra information that you dont ever need :) funny enough with a good money management you dont need to be a god tir trader u just do what ever u feel for. good luck have fun trading !!!
by alisardari