Get started

Economic

S&P500 gains despite economic data worsening S&P500 reaches a new ATH. However ISM/PMI Data out of the US speak a different language. After we have already witnessed a global slowing and contracting of the economy with many countries having PMIs under the 50 level for quite some time now, the US has now followed this trend that has been going on for over a year. PMIs again came in lower today and under the important 50 mark, which means in the contracting area. We have now 3 readings in the PMIs under 50 over the last 3 months, signaling that the situation is not just a statistical outsider but a trend. I am expecting the US market (S&P500) despite worsening data still to reach potentially the 3200 level. However these gains are driven mainly be the expectations that the FED can turn things around like always. Should we reach the 3200 level and economic data has not been improving until then, I am expecting a bigger 3 Wave correction to start from there, potentially even a correction that could be correcting the bull market which has startet in the year of 2009, this could happen if despite FED interventions the Economic Data doesn't improve. Hence expect a correction from the 3200 level, the size of the correction then will be unfold on weather the FEDs interventions are successful or not. Either way I am expecting that it will get very interesting soon keep the markets under close observation. Good luck!
TVC:SPX
by JonasBenjaminFriedrich
Markets took a break, pound tested 1.30"Markets took a break" the lack of high-profile news and frankly difficult weeks contributed to that yesterday. GBP has tested 1.30 against the dollar. As we expected unsuccessfully since a successful test requires positive news from Britain. Johnson’s attempt to accelerate the negotiation process did not bring home the bacon. Parliament refused to re-vote on the approval of the agreement. Motivation: the decision was already made on Saturday and it makes no sense to discuss the same thing again. However, Johnson does not give up trying to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October. We are rather sceptical about this and are waiting for a delay for another 2-3 months. Nevertheless, the general feeling of further leaving hangs in the air, so buying pounds in the daily lows area still seems to us to be a good trading idea. In the end, the growth potential has not yet been exhausted. Another promising idea, in our opinion, is the sale of the dollar. But recently, we see more and more reasons to start a downward dollar rally: rates in the US are falling, economic indicators are deteriorating, US exporters continue to suffer due to a strong dollar (in the current reporting season, at least 16 leading companies have complained about problems with profit due to for a strong dollar), in addition and do not forget about the structural problems of the US economy (public debt, chronic trade deficit and trillion budget deficit). So we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Canadian retail sales figures are what we are waiting to come out. Especially because the Canadian dollar has recently strengthened in the foreign exchange market. On the one hand, the Canadian dollar may still grow. On the other hand, weak data on the background of a rather strong overbought Canadian dollar may well give a signal for fixing profits and starting correction in pairs with the Canadian dollar. We are closely watching the news.
Long
by Trade24Fx
9/29-30 EURUSD Short opportunity - Full Analysis (15 & 240 M)This looks like a really good short opportunity, EURUSD is in a 4H/D downtrend so we will stay in short positions only until that primary trend changes. EURUSD looks like it will be moving up to Fibonacci resistance 0.236 (15min chart) technicals (ie RSI, Stoch RSI, and Momentum) all suggest a short term upward movement which purposes a nice entry for a short position at 1.09700 (ENTER ONLY WHEN TREND IS REVERSING, USE PRECAUTION AND BEST JUDGMENT**). The Fibonacci retracement drawn in red lines up well with the points of control (or red lines extending from the histograms, which indicates institutional investor trade volumes at various prices ie "Volume Profile") which form our price target ranges in the gray rectangles. Price target or "Take Profit" for this short position is between 1.09100-1.09000 due to the current trend lines that have been observed. That translates to a 600-700 Pip move. Please comment with any additional observations! Thank you. THIS DOES NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE. THESE ARE REFLECTION OF MY PERSONAL ANALYSIS AND ARE NOT INVESTMENT SUGGESTION. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY**
Short
by loganguest
2
Impact of CME Expiration Date on BTC*** This article is not for sale or buy. The CME expiration date has a major impact on BTC's trend transition. Inverse head and shoulders pattern & CME expiration date, Triangle pattern & CME expiration date. 1. Current Coin Market Status - Coin Cap : 179 Billion $ - Bitcoin Dominance : 52.0% - Volume by National Currencies : USD(36.5%), JPY(44.2%), KRW (4.09%) 2. The Comparison of Coin Market Cap - Coin Cap : about 179 billion $ - Stock Market Cap around the world : about 50 trillion $ / 0.27% - Korean Stock Market Cap : about 1760 billion $ / 10% - Samsung Electronics Cap : about 240 billoion $ > Coin Cap 3. Futures Expiration date 1) CME : On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm / UTC 2) CBOE : On Third Wednesday of each month at 10 pm / UTC 4. The Long-Term BTC Forecast - A similarity with the 2015 bottom & Influence of halving - The rising curve by pattern 5. 2021, The bubble of new industry for overcoming economic crisis? 6. Around CME Expiration Date, since BTC trends often change or price fluctuations increase, you should look more carefully. The charts listed below are some of my previous analyses of how the CME expiration date has affected BTC pricing. Please check. If you liked this idea, please, 'Thumbs up', 'Follow', 'Comment'~^^ 1) CME Expiration Date on June 2018 ) 2) CME Expiration Date on July 2018 ) 3) CME Expiration Date on December 2018 ) 4) CME Expiration Date on March 2019 )
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by pkb6698
7
Could ECM serve a purpose for the Crypto Market?Hi there, i'm sorry to say but i can't give any substantial input because Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is far beyond my Kung Fu and a lot of precious content is behind a pay-wall. I would like to know if there is anyone here willing to share his experience and knowledge about ECM and whether there are chances e.g. to build correlations and thus indirectly make a use of ECM for the crypto market or not. Or whatever purpose it might serve. All i can say is that ECM is based on Pi which is, like fractals and fibonacci numbers, one of the gifts from mother nature we can use to analyze charts. To get a comprehensive overview on ECM and it's inventor Martin Armstrong i recommend watching the documentary "The Forecaster". After watching it, i felt like i just faced awesomeness. (: You might hate him, you might love him. It doesn't matter here. ECM adds another view to complete the picture as a whole. This is the only thing that should matter. I have added USDJPY to show how nicely a price might follow ECM cycles. I'm looking forward to interesting comments. Sincerely Source: Economic Confidence Model – When One Nation Peaks Another Bottoms
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by EduardZimmermann
7
Brace! Avoid being flushed out in the 'Economic Colonic'. In this screencast I show how I attack the US30. It's very different to what you see 'out there'. This is about a robust and real trend-following methodology. And not - I'm not selling anything! WYSIWYG. Totally for free! Everybody deserves a chance. Reality has come home to the markets - globally. There is a mega trade war on at the moment and it has been for several weeks. The impatient and greedy will lose their money to those who are patient and strategic.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Fundamental analysis for U.S. Crude Oil Inventories One of the economic releases of the day was the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories which helps measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The way it works is that the amount of inventories helps influence the price petroleum products which can have an encounter with the inflation rates. Traders have got two things which they have to consider and one of them will be to see if increase in crude inventories is more than expected. This will show that the demand is weak which will result in a bearish for crude prices. The other thing that the traders will look will be the opposite which will be to see if a fall in inventories is gonna be less than predicted. So if the if the increase in crude is less than expected this indicates a greater demand which will mean that it will be bullish for crude prices. The economic news about crude oil came out at 15:30 and the previous forecast was -5.117M and the predicted forecast for today was -3.769M. However, as soon as the economic news was reported, it showed that the actual forecast is -6.495M. As it shows on the chart, the candlestick was a bullish candlestick which meant that traders would have gone long on this particular trade.
by LDForex_
EURO/USD - Watch The Breakout - Final Days Of 2016 PipsHi Traders, We continue to monitor EURO/USD for a breakout. As you can see price has not been able to settle above the key resistance line (Blue) however price has advanced in an upward direction finding support on the lower trend line (green). We feel a catalyst is required for price to breakout and we have 3 opportunities this week for price to breakout. Today we have US Consumer Confidence which is expected to be bullish. Tomorrow we have US Unemployment Claims which are expected to be bearish. Our view is that technically price is in a bearish trend and thus we feel more inclined to sell the Euro than to but it. With that said we cannot rule out a larger correction spurred by negative US economic news. Our advice is to set alerts on the Resistance line and Support line and to take your trading direction on price breaking out of either of these lines. You could also trade the range with small stop orders on either line a sell on the resistance line and a buy on the trend line. We'd risk 10-20 points at most for this style of trading. We wish you luck traders and hope you can close the year with a decent amount of points on a breakout. Trade brave.
by EuroDollarExpert
The Big Short | Putting Economic Data to the TestHello Traders, I have been fiddling with the idea of applying the same model used to predict Financial Markets to Economic Data.This is my first attempt at applying the model to such data publicly. Consider this post an experiment. Taking into consideration some fundamentals (and a little bit of rationalizing); Since the auto industry bail outs of 2008-2009 interest rates have been at a record lows(0%). Car sales reacted accordingly making a full recovery into pre 2008 levels. Now that QE and 0% interest is over (interest rates are likely to rise in the next few years), there is a bit of stagnation in the car industry as a whole. Once attractive lease offers and 0% financing is off the table a decline in sales should occur. Overall, when interest rates are high people buy less as a whole. Questionable Lending Practices: The use of Sub Prime loans in the auto industry and selling those loans as bonds has an all too familiar ring to it. Granted, it is not as rampant as it was in the mortgage industry, but the same practices of junk loans being sold as junk bonds is occurring. One does not need to be a prophet to know what the end result of that is. Take a look at this satirical piece by John Oliver for more detail: www.youtube.com Self Driving Cars: It is imminent, self driving cars are the future and can reach the everyday consumer as soon as 2020. www.nissanusa.com Why is this important? The idea of self driving cars also brings up the idea of not having to own a car to get around in one. Cars being able to move around without a driver + (UBER + Car Manufacturer Collaboration) = Less consumers having to own cars to get around in one. www.wired.com The Model: The most important aspect here is the model. Time and time again it has proven to predict and forecast financial markets with pin point precision. Here, the model points to 5.26 as the highest probability target. So...what does this all mean? If the model is successful in predicting the outcome of auto sales, it means that there will be a massive decline in auto sales. It also means that there is a great recession looming over us like a dark cloud. The ideas discussed in this thread are purely conversation topics that help "aid" the rationale behind the targets defined by the model. I do not consider myself an economist, nor do I think I have the full range of ideas listed in this thread. If you feel like you have a different outlook or if I missed something please feel free to discuss it in the comment section(with sources to back up your view). Best, Chartistry
FRED:ALTSALESShort
by GWaves
2
Short S&P500 1D candle / 9 month time frameI can see a repetition of the same pattern that occurred in November, with a trend reversal (Price diverges from upper BB) after a rapid rally. Furthermore, the trend reversal occurred at a consolidated resistance point 2015. Finally the stoch indicator hints to a downtrend as well as the a bearish dominance that the negative slope of the balance of power indicator has. Furthermore, it has to be noted that external, mainly european, forces put negative pressure on US equities. The brexit referendum creates uncertainty in the market and the Chinese economic slowdown contributes to the unfavourable bad earnings of Q1.
FX:SPX500Short
by BigCharts