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Economic

Long Gold Short OilGold has a historic relevance as being a price appreciator in times of volatility, geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty. Current day presents a plethora of risks both economic and political; from emerging market credit risk through to south china sea politics. Oil, like Gold has benefitted from a fall in the USD which has lead to some price recovery, however this does not change the fundamental facts that there is still chronic oversupply. Long Gold for economic risk hedge, Short Oil for for USD revaluation protection and further oversupply issues.
AMEX:GLD
by MarcusWilliamson
1
XAUUSD WEEKLY CHART - MAKE IT OR BREAK ITWith all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :) With the history of miners leading the commodity in moves, I'm expecting gold to make a move higher (see GDX charts): - We again have the bull flag being made, with any bearish attempt to "fill the gap" back down to 1180 being stunted 1200 - Our 'medium' channel from 2013 has been broken, re-tested, and remained bullish - We are at out 23% fib retracement (same that GDX just broke through) from our big move down from our ATH in 2011 - We are also one move away from recent solid price action (black horizontal lines), which was similar in the GDX as well - If these are able to break tomorrow, 1300-1400 is our very short term goal - After 1415 you only have 1485, and 1568-1600 as price action areas, which is a very nice, large gap to be filled Feel free to comment with questions or ideas :) Happy Trading!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AwareBear
XAUUSD DAILY CHART - MAKE IT OR BREAK ITWith all the NIRP's and ZIRP's flying around in an economy based off fraud and debt, this was expected, and now we have the start of the technical indicators to back it up :) - Just as the GDX, we have a beautiful parabola, followed by an attempt to go to 1180, which was rejected by the bulls - This creates the bull flag / pennant that was see now, which was just broken out of to the upside - By finishing this day (April 11th) above the 23% fib retracement, I believe we have invalidated any head and shoulders pattern, as the left shoulder failed to do this - This is vital, for if we drop lower from here, that is a classic Head and Shoulders pattern, which would launch us to 1180 no problem, so this is why it is a "make it or break it" time for gold ... - We are out of our 'middle tier' channel, and back into a smaller and much weaker channel - This leaves me with some concerns but the same thing applies as to the GDX; - If it can break and hold above this channel and price action of 1270, that's when we should see the confirmation of a bull market, short term at the very least Feel free to comment with questions or ideas :) Happy Trading!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AwareBear
Rough Rice RR1! Longterm Call As we are on the brink of the next cyclical recession food security has become more of a concern than ever. One can see the inverse correlation that rice has exhibited over the last 15 years being an extremely inelastic good as it is the most consumed grain in the world. In the last 14 years the value of this commodity future has gone up over 250% versus the most widely used currency in the history of mankind, what does that say about the purchasing power of the dollar? The system will crack, inelastic sustenance commodities will experience hyperinflation. The last chart I made on Rice in early 2015 I claimed that it would bottom out at 9.2 and I was off by .1. Let's see how it goes, best of luck to all! And remember this market is relatively low volume and has extremely violent gaps so be careful with using leverage. Regards Rahul Andra
RLong
by RahulAndra
Again a bitcoin fractal.That is where I think we are now. We`re in a quite similar fractal of the "small" rally of 2012. As you might remember, that rally took place a few months before the halving, after a long bearmarket, a situation strangely similar to where we are now. My prediction: I think we´ll slowly rise back to 450, build a plateau at 450-500 and stay there stable for a few months. Then we might see a rally unfold, if bitcoin continues to do fractals. It would fit also the upcoming halving in the middle of 2016. However, for that, the potentially upcoming economic crisis needs to fully unfold, with lots of capital flowing into bitcoin. The chances for that are not so slim.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
USDCAD Testing 12 year high of $1.40So the disappointing Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) print earlier has sent the USDCAD hurtling towards the psychological price of $1.40 which hasn’t been broken since August 2003! In addition to this, it’s no secret that the tumbling oil price has been a contributory factor to CAD weakness. Due to the strength of the resistance, I would expect a pull back to $1.283 before any further gains. The latest Canadian Consumer Price Index print print can be viewed her, if any of you are looking for something riveting to read... bit.ly
by DarrenWells
2
INVENTORY TO SALES RATIO - A RISK INDICATOR TO WATCHInventories to Sales Ratio has been rapidly ascending recently above its usual levels of 1.3. It means that Inventories have been actually growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months! Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy. If the ratio continues to ascend at the current phase, it will tell us that a significant fall in business sales is happening, and/or a large excess of inventories is being accumulated in the US economy – both factors are signs of a broader economic slowdown.
FRED:ISRATIO
by Killy_Mel