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Economic Cycles

BTCUSDT ISHS Breakout with Bullish Pennant ContinuationBTC is holding above a clean neckline breakout from a inverse head and shoulders formation, currently consolidating inside a bullish pennant. A breakout from this range offers continuation potential to $136K and possibly to $168K. Bias remains bullish while price holds above the $114K region. Market Structure • Trend: Bullish continuation • Pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders + Bullish Pennant • Price Action: Clean breakout and retest of neckline support, followed by tightening consolidation Key Zones • Immediate Demand Zone: $114,000 – $117,000 • Internal Demand Zone: $105,000 – $108,000 • Major Setup Support Zone: $98,000 – $101,000 • Base Support (ISHS Origin): $74,500 – $77,000 • Neckline: $111,700-$113,800 (Confirmed pivot level) Technical Confluence • Volume: Strong candle breakout through neckline, followed by low-volume bullish flag • Price Geometry: ISHS measured move aligns with the final target at $168K • Momentum: Bullish structure maintained with higher lows and reactive demand Entry Plan • Zone: $117,500 – $119,000 • Method: Limit buy on demand retest or breakout retest of $123K • Execution: Swing entry with invalidation below demand base Targets • 🎯 TP1: $136,442 — Pennant measured move • 🎯 TP2: $168,029 — Final ISHS target Invalidation • ❌ SL: Below $110,000 • Reason: Break below ISHS Neckline invalidates bullish thesis in the short term • RRR: Estimated 1:4 depending on execution If this structure aligns with your outlook, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. You’re also welcome to drop your preferred altcoins for a quick technical review.
Long
by weslad
61
Bitcoin: Interconnections Rewired🏛️ Research Notes Keeping fib channel of the rising trend angles as they've number of times covered well that aspect of cycle texture. The other frame of reference would be with fib channel that covers drop from 2021 ATH to late 2022 bottom. Last bit would be integrating fib channel discovered while ago that connects covid & late 2022 bottoms Together they create a framework that addresses the complexity and makes even the most chaotic price movements seem to be a part of structural narrative.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
Nasdaq US100 Wave 3 Expansion Toward 31,606 in PlayNasdaq US100 has completed a significant wave cycle with a confirmed wave 1 in the broader Elliott Wave structure. Following this, price underwent a corrective wave 2 that extended from the $22,237 supply zone down to $16,334, marking the conclusion of the previous cycle’s correction. This structure now signals the initiation of a fresh upward impulse, setting the stage for a powerful wave 3 advance. The emergence of wave 3 will gain full confirmation once price successfully breaks above the external supply zone, reclaiming $22,237. If this breakout occurs with sustained momentum, the wave 3 projection targets an expansion toward $31,606, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the prior cycle. This forthcoming rally is anticipated to unfold in a five-subwave format, indicative of a high-momentum bullish leg. As long as price action remains above the key support at $16,334, the bullish cycle remains valid. All eyes should now be on the breakout structure and volume profile around $22,237, as it represents the gateway to a much broader impulsive move.
CFI:US100Long
by weslad
6
BITCOIN 2025 TOP PREDICTION!This chart represents the M2 Money Supply / BTCUSD correlation with an 84-day delay. You can see that the M2 Money Supply has formed a double top (with a lower high) in late September. The price of bitcoin tops out 525–532 days after the halving in every cycle. What does this mean? In my opinion, bitcoin will continue to follow the direction of M2 in a highly correlated manner. This would mean that BTC's top is only 2 months away. What price will bitcoin top? That I'm not entirely sure of yet. The M2 / BTC correlation can be placed in a plethora of different scales. However, it currently looks like the top will be BELOW $200,000. I hope to be proven wrong, but as of right now, bitcoin is following previous cycles perfectly (excluding the fact that we created a new ATH prior the halving, this was because of ETFs). Given diminishing returns (and assuming that "supercycle" is not reached), $135,000 - $190,000 top in late September makes sense.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoKidCMT
[ TimeLine ] Gold 31 July 2025📆 Today’s Date: Wednesday, July 30, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • July 31, 2025 (Thursday) — Single-candle setup • July 31–August 1, 2025 (Thursday–Friday) — Two-candle combined range 🧠 Trading Outlook & Notes ✅ Gold has recently dropped sharply from 3439 to 3298, and current conditions suggest this bearish momentum may continue. ✅ I’ll be actively trading both the July 31 and July 31–August 1 setups as part of my ongoing strategy testing and live analysis. ✅ This method and timing structure can also be applied to other assets like BTC, the US Index, and various commodities. ⚠️ For those taking a more cautious approach, it’s absolutely okay to skip the single-candle setup on July 31 and wait for the more confirmed 2-day range setup (July 31–August 1). 📋 Execution Guidelines 🔹 Range Identification: • Let the Hi-Lo range of the chosen candle(s) form completely. • Purple lines will mark these ranges on the chart. • After the daily close, charts will be updated to include a 60-pip buffer, Fibonacci zones, and relevant indicators. 🔹 Entry Conditions: • Trades are triggered only if price breaks above/below the full range, including the buffer zone. 🔹 Risk Management – Recovery Logic: • If the Stop Loss is triggered, the trade is exited or switched, and the next valid breakout setup will use a doubled lot size to attempt recovery. 📉📈 Chart Snapshot 🔗 Paste this in TradingView: TV/x/fykxBG6w/ 📌 Stick to the plan, follow the system, and let the chart lead the way. 🛡️ Capital protection comes first — always manage your risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
[ TimeLine ] Gold 17 July 2025📆 Today is Wednesday, July 16, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • July 17, 2025 (Thursday) — Single-candle setup • July 17–18, 2025 (Thursday–Friday) — Two-candle combined range 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes ✅ Gold recently moved in a wide range between 3365 to 3282, and by the time this signal is published, we’re seeing signs of a strong reversal. ✅ I will be trading both the July 17 and July 17–18 signals as part of my ongoing live research and strategy development. ✅ The same timeframe and signal approach also applies to other instruments such as BTC, US Index, and several commodity pairs. ⚠️ If you’re feeling cautious or risk-averse, it’s perfectly fine to skip the July 17 single-candle setup and wait for the 2-day range (July 17–18) for added confirmation. 📋 Execution Plan 🔹 Range Formation: • Wait for the Hi-Lo range from the selected candle(s) to fully form. • Ranges will be marked with purple lines on the chart. • After market close, the chart will be updated with 60-pip buffer zones, Fibonacci retracement levels, and supporting indicators. 🔹 Entry Trigger Rule: • Entry only if price breaks out beyond the defined range, including the 60-pip buffer. 🔹 Risk Management – Recovery Strategy: • If Stop Loss (SL) is hit, the trade will be cut/switch, and position size doubled on the next valid breakout signal to aim for recovery. 📉📈 Chart Reference 🔗 Copy & paste into TradingView: TV/x/6x8VJKs1/ 📌 Stay disciplined, trust the process, and let the chart guide your decisions. 🛡️ Manage your risk — protect your capital.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
ETH - Bounce Zones - Nears the End for BULLSHello Fello's ☕ I'm watching Ethereum today and I believe it may be very close to the end of it's bullish cycle. I think what could become likely is an extended altseason, where Bitcoin trades around the same price for some time, and Ethereum increases slightly. Afterwhich smaller altcoins (by marketcap) make random rallies before the beginning of a bearish cycle (which is due, see my previous BTC update). There's an interesting channel here that previously determined bounce zones... I don't believe the channel itself will hold as much value going down, but this zone may be a likely bounce zone - around $3k. Key bounce zones to watch include: I'm not saying it will be this straightforward, but this image demonstrates the power of bounce zones for swing trades: Next update will be when we've lost the first support zone. Until then!
Short
by BlockTechEv
DXY | Timeframe: 1MWith the breakout of the downtrend line drawn since 1985 and its breach in late 2014, the DXY index officially entered a relatively stable upward trend and is currently oscillating within a parallel channel. Although, on the monthly timeframe, it has recently touched the lower boundary of the channel, we can expect at least a rise toward the channel’s midline. However, if the lower support of the channel is broken, a static support around the approximate rate of 88 can be considered a notable support level. Should this support also fail, the long-term downtrend dating back to 1985 would be regarded as the most important support for the DXY index. Meanwhile, moving averages such as the MA50, MA100, and other longer-period moving averages serve as dynamic supports along the way. It is also worth mentioning that currently reaching the 120 level is considered an ideal target for the DXY index, and ultimately, it is by breaking this resistance zone that the index can reach its “Utopia”. --------- I will try to continuously update this analysis of the TOTAL symbol according to market changes and developments. Also, I welcome reading your critiques and comments, so don’t forget to leave a comment!
INDEX:DXYLong
by Neomway
Crypto Total Market Cap (TOTAL) | 1WThe crypto market cap represented by the symbol TOTAL can be considered the most important index for analyzing the cryptocurrency market, although I believe that analyzing Bitcoin itself, given its strong positive correlation with the TOTAL index, would yield similar results. In the attached image, the red line actually indicates the overall resistance level of the symbol, and the drawn parallel channel illustrates the current upward trend of the TOTAL symbol, which is now on the verge of encountering its round resistance at 4 trillion dollars. While we should expect a correction around this level, breaking through the 4 trillion dollar resistance could likely lead to a market cap of 6 to 7 trillion dollars in the next phase. On the other hand, with support at 2.4 trillion dollars based on the 100-week SMA on the weekly timeframe, the 750 billion dollar level—marked by a green zone in the image—can still be considered the most important long-term market support, even before the fifth halving. I will try to continuously update this analysis of the TOTAL symbol according to market changes and developments. Also, I welcome reading your critiques and comments, so don’t forget to leave a comment!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Neomway
GBPUSD Elliott Wave Insight Bounce Should Fail Into Support ZoneThe GBPUSD is trading in higher high sequence from 9.22.2022 low in weekly. The bounce is corrective Elliott Wave sequence & expect further upside. It favors pullback in proposed 7 swings from 7.01.2025 high & extend into 1.3162 – 1.2898 area, while below 7.23.2025 high. It should find buyers into extreme area for next leg higher in daily or at least 3 swings bounce. In 4-hour, it started correcting lower from 7.01.2025 high. It ended W at 1.3362 low of 7.16.2025 & X at 1.3589 high of 7.23.2025 each in 3 swings. Below X high, it favors downside in Y in 3 swings as it broke below 7.16.2025 low, expecting into extreme area. Within W, it ended ((a)) at 1.3523 low, ((b)) at 1.3620 high & ((c)) at 1.3362 low. Above there, it placed ((a)) at 1.3486 high, ((b)) at 1.3371 low & ((c)) as X connector at 1.3589 high. The double correction unfolds in 3-3-3 structure, which will complete, when current bounce fails below 7.23.2025 high to new low into extreme area. It ended ((a)) of Y into 0.618 – 0.764 Fibonacci extension area of W & expect 3 or 7 swings bounce in ((b)). Below X high, it placed ((a)) of Y at 1.3305 low & favors bounce in ((b)) in 3 or 7 swings against 7.23.2025 high. Within ((a)), it ended (i) at 1.3528 low, (ii) at 1.3563 high, (iii) at 1.3413 low, (iv) at 1.3543 high & (v) at 1.3305 low. Above there, it favors bounce in (a) of ((b)) and expect small upside before it should pullback in (b). The next pullback in (b) should stay above 1.3305 low choppy price action before continue upside in (c). Ideally, ((b)) can bounce between 1.3413 – 1.3481 area as 0.382 – 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((a)) before continuing lower. Wave ((b)) bounce expect to fail below 1.3591 high before extending lower in ((c)) into 1.3162 – 1.2898 to finish double correction. Because of higher high in daily since September-2022 low, it should find buyers in extreme area to resume higher. It expects sideways to higher until FOMC event followed by selloff, while bounce fail below 7.23.2025 high. We like to buy the pullback into extreme area for next leg higher or at least 3 swings reaction.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Next BTC topHistorically, BTC/USD has tended to peak when the 200-week simple moving average (200W SMA) approaches or crosses the high from the previous market cycle. If this pattern holds, and assuming the 200W SMA continues rising at its current pace, the next top could occur sometime between January and May 2026. If BTC accelerates earlier, the moving average would steepen, potentially shifting the timing forward. Something worth watching to manage risk and position sizing accordingly.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by A678123
Elliott Wave Update: EURUSD Favors Weakness In To Support ZoneThe EURUSD favors upside in 3 swings from September-2022 low & should extend towards 1.1929 or higher against 1.13.2025 low. In 4-hour, it favors double correction lower from 7.01.2025 high to correct 5.12.2025 low. It favors short term pullback into 1.1512 – 1.1340 area in 7 swing pullbacks before continue rally in cycle from 1.13.2025 low. Above January-2025 low, it ended (1) at 1.0533 high, (2) at 1.0210 low, (3) at 1.1573 high, (4) at 1.1065 low & favors higher in (5). Within 4-hour, it placed 1 at 1.1830 high & correcting in 2 as double three correction before two more highs. It placed ((w)) at 1.1559 low in 3 swings zigzag correction. In ((w)), it ended (a) at 1.1659 low, (b) at 1.1714 high & (c) at 1.1559 low of 7.16.2025. Later, it unfolded expanded flat correction in ((x)) that ended at 1.1788 high of 7.24.2025. Within ((x)), it placed (a) at 1.1721 high, (b) at 1.1554 low & (c) in 5 swings at 1.1788 high. Currently, it favors downside in ((y)) of 2 & expect sideways to lower in to support zone. It favors zigzag correction lower in ((y)) to finish 2 into extreme area before resume rally. Short term, it favors downside in (a) of ((y)) since 7.24.2025 high. In (a), it placed i at 1.1700 low, ii at 1.1771 high & favors downside in iii of (a) towards 1.1576 – 1.1569 area before bounce in iv. It expects a bounce soon in iv followed by one more push lower in v to finish (a) in 5 swings. Wave (a) of ((w)) should end near 1.1578 before bounce in (b) in 3 or 7 swings connector. The bounce in (b) should fail below 1.1788 high to extend lower in (c) into 1.1512 – 1.1340 area to finish correction. It should find next support into that area to rally higher as the part of daily sequence targeting 1.1929 or higher. We like to buy in to that area for next leg higher or at least 3 swings bounce. If it breaks above 7.01.2025 high, it expects two more highs to finish cycle from January-2025 before next pullback start.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Cycles Don’t Lie — But Which One Speaks Here ?Markets love to repeat themselves. But just because something repeats, doesn’t mean it’s predictable — or useful. Let’s break down the main types of market cycles that traders talk about, and more importantly, let’s call out their flaws. No sugarcoating. 🔹 1. Time Cycles These are based on the idea that price behaves in a similar way over specific time intervals — whether it’s 90 days, 4 years, or a custom Fibonacci count. They show up in seasonal patterns, halving cycles (like Bitcoin), or through tools like Gann, Hurst, or even basic cycle lines. The problem? – The exact timing is rarely clean. A 120-day cycle might play out in 87 days next time. – Flat, choppy markets will destroy any cycle-based setup. – Different timeframes show different "cycles," so good luck aligning them. – Most cycle tools are complicated and impractical for real-time decision making. 🔹 2. Psychological Cycles The famous emotional rollercoaster: Hope → Euphoria → Fear → Panic → Capitulation → Depression → Optimism. Every bull and bear market goes through these in some form — in theory. The problem? – It’s almost entirely subjective. Everyone sees a different phase. – You usually recognize the cycle only after it’s over. – Emotions aren’t equal across all assets — BTC retail emotions ≠ S&P500 institutional sentiment. – There’s no precise tool to measure this. You’re mixing vibes with candles. 🔹 3. Structural Cycles (e.g. Wyckoff) This one’s more about price behavior itself — accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown. The idea is that markets rotate through these four structural phases again and again. The problem? – Identifying where you are in the structure is hard in real time. – Markets don’t always follow the Wyckoff textbook. Sometimes they just... go. – It relies heavily on volume — and that doesn’t always align. – Traders love to force a structure where there isn’t one. Confirmation bias, anyone? 🔹 4. Macro Cycles Classic economic boom and bust: Expansion → Peak → Recession → Trough. These cycles move slow but shape everything — interest rates, employment, growth, and eventually, risk assets. The problem? – They’re way too slow to help short-term traders. – Good luck timing the top or bottom of the economy. – Governments and central banks constantly interfere with natural cycles. – Most macro data is lagging, so you’re reacting to history, not forecasting the future. 🔹 5. Liquidity / Volume Cycles This idea tracks capital flow: when liquidity comes in, prices rise. When it dries up, risk assets fall. Simple, right? The problem? – Volume isn’t universal. Crypto volume =/= stock volume =/= forex volume. – You can’t always track capital flow accurately, especially in OTC markets. – Low volume doesn’t always mean weakness — sometimes it’s just summer. – Volume data can be misleading, especially on shady exchanges. 🔹 6. Fractal Cycles Markets repeat — at every level. 5-minute looks like the 4-hour, which looks like the daily. Elliott wave, harmonic patterns, whatever — the idea is that patterns echo across timeframes. The problem? – Pattern recognition can be wildly subjective. – The market doesn’t always care about geometry. Sometimes it’s just noise. – By the time a pattern is “confirmed,” you missed the move. – Focusing too much on pattern symmetry makes you blind to macro/fundamentals. So after breaking all that down, let’s finally get to the chart in front of us. Let’s take a closer look and see which cycle has actually played out here — and more importantly, which one actually helped : As you can see on the chart, before every breakout above the previous all-time high, the market tends to form some sort of bottoming structure or reversal pattern. And once that structure completes, the actual breakout usually leads to a solid price pump. But here’s the key question: Which one of the cycles we talked about earlier does this actually follow? If you ask me, a professional trader will always try to use every tool available — not because any single one gives you the answer, but because combining them gets you closer to what's likely to happen. And that’s what separates a well-rounded trader from a one-dimensional one. Why do I say “one-dimensional”? Because if you insist on looking at the market through a single lens, you’re bound to make bad decisions. We’re not here to prove our personal theories — we’re here to profit from what actually happens in the market, not what we think should happen. In the chart above, we actually see a mix of all the cycles we talked about. But I’d love to hear from you as well — let’s brainstorm together. What do you see here as a trader? And what’s your take on this setup? Bottom Line Yes, markets repeat. But repetition doesn’t equal reliability. Every cycle has its use — and its blind spot. Know the difference. Use what fits your style. And don’t romanticize a model just because it looks clean on a chart from six months ago.
Education
by Kiu_Coin