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Economic Cycles

Research on Timing & VolatilityThe convergence of the linear extension of volatility bands toward a specific point is a phenomenon rooted in market equilibrium dynamics and statistical projection. When volatility contracts, it often signals a transition from a high-activity phase to a period of consolidation, where price fluctuations narrow, leading to a temporary state of balance between buying and selling pressures. This focal point may represent a fair market value, an equilibrium price level, or a statistically significant mean, derived from moving averages, regression models, or other analytical techniques. Additionally, the convergence could indicate an area where price is expected to stabilize before a potential breakout, as volatility tends to move in cycles of expansion and contraction. In many cases, such a point acts as a precursor to future market movement, suggesting that once compression reaches a critical level, price action may soon undergo a directional shift, either resuming a trend or initiating a new one. RESEARCH I used linear generated extensions FREMA (Volatility bands based on Buying & Selling Pressure) on BTCUSD (because 24h) to carry out a quick experiment on 15mTF in order to observe graphically specific properties of volatility. As the lines diverge from their intersection, a key question emerges: how will price react to this expansion, where angles defined by selling and selling pressure are inverted? Will the market take this as a signal for a breakout, surging in one direction with renewed momentum, or will it hesitate, moving sideways as traders search for confirmation? The contraction leading to this moment suggests a buildup of pressure — now released into a phase where volatility returns. If buyers take control, price could rally sharply, breaking through resistance levels. Conversely, if sellers dominate, a sharp decline might unfold. The widening of the bands signals the beginning of a new phase where direction and strength will soon become clear. Most importantly I'll establish how price behaves when it encounters those lines.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by fract
Gold Bulls Are Insatiable—Is a Breakout Above 2940 Next?Yesterday, Gold continued its rebound from Friday’s sell-off. Although I expected a new leg down from my 2920-2925 sell zone, the price exceeded that level and retested the all-time high zone for the third time in just eight days. This type of price action—strong reversals after a sell-off—could indicate that bulls are not done yet, making a breakout above 2940 likely. At this point, I’ve cut my losses and exited the market, waiting to see if the price confirms the potential for a new all-time high this week. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
9
The Daily Edge - 18th Feb 2025Low Volatility as XAUUSD Holds Inside Consolidation Market Overview Monday printed an inside bar after the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday, leading to low volatility. Price remains between 2940 IT-HH and 2860 ST-HL, with a failure swing below Friday’s low at 2880 but no decisive break. 4H chart confirms continued consolidation, keeping price within the range. Key Observations Inside bar formation – no breakout, signaling indecision. Range-bound price action – price holds between 2940 and 2860, confirming consolidation. Our Next Steps Remain flat until a clear setup develops. Monitor range extremes for trade setups Longs: Below 2860, if price confirms. Shorts: Above 2950, if structure aligns. Avoid overtrading – patience is key until a strong directional move prints. Reflection Prompt How does recognizing when to stay out of the market improve discipline and long-term trading performance? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipsnPaper
SOL Biggest Bargain Buy Opp at 50WMAI wrote my thesis on Solana in July 2023 when it was at $25 and memecoins weren't even a thought. No one even knew what BONK was, but the developer community was thriving, and all the best dApps were being built there. Now that people are tired of rinsing themselves clean at the casino, it's funny to see them call CRYPTOCAP:SOL ded ~$180💀 SOL is up 625% since I first wrote about it 😂 The blockchain has tremendously improved in every metric, with a plethora of new advancements on the near horizon, including Firedancer 🔥 Buying SOL here at the 50WMA is an absolute gift. Target is still, and always will be $700-850 within the next 9 months.
Long
by jonnieking
2
Bitcoin: Long-Term Recurring Cycles via FibsMonthly reminder that prices move in fibonacci proportions to its own size. I'll provide the most extreme version for illustration purposes. Let's focus on first ATH after which there was the heaviest decline of 93% and use those coordinates in order to explain the rest recurring cycles. Now, if we capture the first notable cycle (around 2010-2011) with fibonacci channels and adjust the direction to the most common angle of decline, it reveals not just the reversal levels but its timing. (Traders typically use Fibonacci channels by connecting two highs to establish the overall trend direction, with a third point linking a low to anticipate key price levels. However, when applied in reverse—using a high and a low to define direction and a third point to map a cycle—it not only identifies potential price targets but also uncovers critical timing patterns within the market.) The logic is that when price surges to a new all-time high (ATH) and breaks through a Fibonacci level without pausing, it tends to continue toward the next Fibonacci level, which is more likely to act as a stronger resistance and trigger a significant correction. Instead of relying on subjective directional arrows or subjective Elliott Wave interpretations, Fibonacci Channels provide a more objective and structured outlook on market movements. Since people react to percentage changes rather than absolute values, the logarithmic scale— which represents price movements in percentage-based distances, provides a more accurate reflection of market behavior. As a result, most of Bitcoin’s major declines exhibit a consistent angle on a logarithmic chart, highlighting the recurring nature of these corrections. This reinforces the validity of using logarithmic-based Fibonacci analysis, as it objectively captures both the cyclical nature of price movements and the psychological impact of percentage-based fluctuations.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
1
Long sol Found a fractal of one of the hottest coins in the 2017 cycle, lets see if this plays out. Without discussion, I can assure that the casino of this cycle is trading memes on Solana. And crypto's main value proposition remains being a online casino that is open 24/7. Therefore, if we get another push from BTC followed by an alt season (BTC.D to >40%), I think this will play out accordingly. If I assign probabilities to this trade, I would say theres is a 50/50% chance we get an alt season and this plays out. Manage risk accordingly. Greetings, CG
Long
by Goblin777k
1
Multi-Timeframe Analysis - Week 08Tracking Key Levels: XAUUSD Monitors High-Timeframe POIs Amid Bullish Expansion Market Context Quarterly Chart XAUUSD remains in a bullish breakout, printing higher highs and higher lows for the last six quarters. No pullbacks in six quarters, reinforcing strong trend continuation. Monthly Chart February follows a short consolidation after expansion, with a slight pullback forming a ST-HL at 2536. Price closed above November’s open (2745) and remains above the ST-HH at 2780. Imbalance between 2770 (high) and 2730 (low) may act as a retracement zone, but a test is not required. Weekly Chart Week 07 closed bullish, but formed a long bearish wick toward the end of the week. Imbalance between 2860-2820 is expected to be tested in Week 08. No significant pullbacks since January 2025, reinforcing breakout structure. Daily Chart Consolidation range between 2940 high and 2860 low—key POIs for Week 08. Weekly levels at 2820-2860 remain critical for long re-entries. 4H Chart Price reached a high of 2942 and a low of 2860, consolidating through Thursday and Friday. Friday’s close near 2860 open price kept the range intact. Bearish signs have appeared, but HTF POIs remain in focus for buying interest. Plan for Week 08 Monitor HTF POIs Weekly imbalance at 2820-2860 is key for potential long re-entries. React to Price Action Look for reversal confirmations if buying interest appears at key levels. If buying pressure is weak, adjust the weekly plan accordingly. Stay Objective Ahead of Key Events FOMC on Wednesday & PMI on Friday could increase volatility. Watching for a bullish reversal pattern between Monday-Wednesday to confirm a weekly low. Be Open to Lower Prices if Momentum Shifts If bearish price action strengthens, lower prices could become a draw. No short positions unless confirmed selling pressure emerges. Reflection Prompt How does staying objective at key high-timeframe POIs improve execution and risk management in volatile market conditions? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PipsnPaper
M2 Peaking as Reverse Repo Drains to ZeroThe reverse repo balance at the Fed represents trapped liquidity. When this balance comes down it means liquidity is released into the economy and markets. The M2 level lags the change in reverse repo by about 300 days. Because reverse repo changes have been steady for some time, it is possible to draw a trajectory for reverse repo going to zero, and then M2 peaking out. This would coincide with a potential topping process for SPX as shown in the lower pane of the chart.
FRED:M2SLShort
by DarklyEnergized
The Daily Edge - 14th Feb 2025Bulls Hold Control as XAUUSD Targets Higher Prices Market Overview Thursday’s session confirmed bullish momentum, closing above Tuesday’s bearish open and establishing a new POI for long entries near 2910. Price opened and closed above 2900, forming a Short-Term Higher Low (ST-HL) at 2864 from Wednesday’s session. The weekly candle continues expanding bullishly, with 2942 as the first target and a possible extension to 3000. Key Observations Bullish structure intact: Thursday’s close above 2910 POI reinforces the uptrend. 4H chart confirms trend strength: Consolidation → Expansion → Retracement → Continuation pattern remains valid. Weekly expansion holding: Higher timeframe structure supports continued bullish momentum. Our Next Steps Manage long positions, holding as long as price respects the trend. Monitor 4H POIs at 2910 and 2920 for re-entry opportunities. Be mindful of pullbacks while momentum remains strong. How does recognizing higher timeframe expansion help refine trade entries and management? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSD
by PipsnPaper