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Economic Cycles

ETH | Ethereum Hits 2 YEAR LOW - What's Next?Could it be that ETH bottoms out here? Low from March 2023: Interestingly enough, it could be said that it was the previous cycle's accumulation zone. Considering the previous cycle's price action, this isn't a ad zone to load up - for the longer term. From here, although the price bounced high, and low, it was the 8-month price action before the next bullish cycle started. This gives us perspective in terms of time ___________________ BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Long
by Crypto-Check-
$NIO You're updated roadmap for $NIOcopy & paste from twitter & stocktwits: We have to see how it develops, but expecting to see an expanded flat with a 5 wave impulse to complete this sideways correction that started April 15, 2024 before we make the final move down to complete the macro structure and unfortunately filling gaps below....cont The TVC:HSI & NYSE:BABA appear like they will make new lows over the next 24 mo. paying closer attention when new lows are made on TVC:HSI and around 12k. I thought we found the bottom going into March/April last year but wrong as this developed into a corrective flat for NYSE:NIO lastly the volume profile isn't capturing the correct data - if we view only $66.99 to the current low, there is a massive volume gap at the ~0.382 fib correcting wave W (the 5-3-5 structure) at $11.02 which is the highest tgt for this bounce & HSI finishing correction from 2007
NYSE:NIOLong
by Drunkmonk
2
Bitcoin Cycle Rhythm: Same Downtrend, New Quadrant.Cycle Comparison – From Halving to Halving We're seeing a striking similarity between the current downtrend and the one that followed the 2020 halving. The slope, structure, and emotional impact on price are almost identical. However — here's the key difference: It's all about Quadrant Timing. In the previous cycle, the sell-off happened during Quadrant 2 — traditionally the euphoric blow-off and start of distribution. In this cycle, we’re seeing the same type of correction in late Quadrant 1, a phase typically associated with accumulation and early markup. Before this correction began, Bitcoin rallied 120% from turning point 10 to turning point 1 — a textbook markup leg that aligns with early-cycle behavior. Now, we've seen a retracement of approximately 32% from turning point 1 to 2, closely mirroring the structure seen in the prior cycle. This suggests that while the pattern is repeating, the context has shifted — this drawdown could be a shakeout, not a cycle top. If the 4-quadrant structure continues to play out, Quadrant 2 may still lie ahead, potentially setting the stage for a much stronger upside continuation. Let me know what you think — is this setup still bullish in structure, or are we seeing the beginning of a deeper phase?
Long
by tolacvk
Critical zone for Bitcoin – Pump or Dump!(Mid-term Analysis)Today, I want to analyze Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) on a weekly time frame so that you can take a mid-term view of BTC. On November 12, 2024 , I shared with you another weekly analysis in which we found the All-Time High(ATH) zone well. Please stay with me. Bitcoin has been on an upward trend for the past 27 months , increasing by about +600% . Have you been able to profit from this upward trend in Bitcoin? During these 27 months , Bitcoin has had two significant corrections , the first correction -20% and the second correction -33% (interestingly, both corrections lasted about 5 months ). Another thing we can understand from the two main corrections is that the second correction is bigger than the first correction , and since Bitcoin is currently in the third correction , we can expect the third correction to be either equal to the second correction or greater than the second correction . Of course, this is just an analysis that should be placed alongside the analyses below . It seems that the start of Bitcoin's correction can be confirmed with the help of the Adam & Adam Double Top Pattern(AADT) . Bitcoin also created a fake breakout above the Resistance lines . Educational tip : The Adam & Adam Double Top (AADT) is a bearish reversal pattern characterized by two sharp, ^-shaped peaks at nearly the same price level. It indicates strong resistance and a potential trend reversal once the price breaks below the neckline between the peaks. Bitcoin appears to be completing a pullback to the broken neckline . According to Elliott's Wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed its 5 impulse waves , and we should wait for corrective waves . It is a bit early to determine the structure of the corrective waves , but I think it will have a Zigzag Correction . The structure of the corrective waves depends on the news and events of the coming weeks and months. I think the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) will be a very sensitive zone for Bitcoin. I expect Bitcoin to start correcting again when it approaches $87,000 or $90,000 at most, and fills the CME Gap($86,400_$85,595) , and at least approaches the Heavy Support zone($73,800_$59,000) AFTER breaking the uptrend line . In your opinion, has Bitcoin finished its correction or created an opportunity for us to escape again? Note: If Bitcoin goes above $90,500, we should expect further increases and even make a new All-Time High(ATH). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), Weekly time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
42
[ TimeLine ] Gold 31 March - 1 April 2025Hello everyone, Today is Thursday, March 27, 2025. I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as entry points for my trades: March 31, 2025 (Monday), or March 31 & April 1, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday) Trading Plan: ✅ Wait for the price range from these candles to form (indicated by the green lines). ✅ Trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with a 60-pip buffer. ✅ If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut/switch the trade and double the position size to recover losses. 📉📈 Below is the chart with the estimated Hi-Lo range of March 31 & April 1, 2025. You can copy the unique code and add it to the TradingView URL. 🔗 TV/x/IaLLLLcp/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
DXY | Major Cycle Peak – Is the Dollar Losing Its Grip?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be following a well-defined historical cycle, marking major peaks approximately every 15–20 years. If history repeats, the 2022 peak near 114 could signal the beginning of a multi-year dollar decline, impacting global markets, commodities, and currency pairs like EUR/USD. Historical Peaks & Reversals Examining past DXY cycles, we see: 969 Peak (~120): Followed by a prolonged decline into the 1970s. 1985 Peak (~165): Marked by the Plaza Accord, triggering a sharp dollar downtrend. 2001 Peak (~120): Led to a multi-year decline as the Fed shifted policies. 2022 Peak (~114): The most recent high—could it mark the next major reversal? Each peak historically aligns with aggressive Fed tightening cycles, followed by a shift towards easing policies, leading to a weaker dollar. With U.S. interest rates expected to plateau or decline, this pattern suggests a potential long-term bearish trend for the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar Bullish for EUR/USD – A declining DXY typically strengthens the euro. Boost for Commodities – Gold, oil, and other dollar-denominated assets could rally. Stronger Emerging Markets – A softer dollar eases financial conditions globally. With DXY showing signs of a historical cycle peak, investors and traders should watch for confirmation of a multi-year downtrend, potentially reshaping global markets.
TVC:DXYShort
by adiyatcoto