Get started

Economic Cycles

Stick to shorting goldAs mentioned in my previous analysis, although gold remains in a clear uptrend, the signs of a short squeeze are increasingly evident. Therefore, in short-term trading, we should refrain from chasing long positions at this stage. If gold fails to decisively break through the 2760–2765 resistance zone, a significant corrective move could occur at any time, which is why my current focus remains on shorting gold. From the current price structure, we can observe a pattern where gold rallies by $60–65 following each confirmed bullish signal, only to retrace by $40 thereafter. Since the last confirmed bullish signal, gold has already advanced $62, indicating a high probability of a $40 correction based on this historical pattern. This means gold could retrace to test the 2740–2730 support range or even approach the 2720 level during this phase of consolidation. This is precisely why I prefer shorting gold in the current scenario. As my trading plan, I initiated a short position near the 2760 level and continue to hold it. Let’s aim to capitalize on this opportunity and secure profits from the downside ahead of most market participants. Here's to a promising outcome! Bros, have you followed me to short gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trader_Marvin
Fractal Phenomenon Proves Simulation Hypothesis?The humanity is accelerating towards the times when virtual worlds will get so realistic that their inhabitants gain consciousness without realizing they exist in a simulation. The idea that we might be living in a simulation was widely introduced in 2003 by philosopher Nick Bostrom. He argued that if the civilization can create realistic simulations, the probability that we are living in one is extremely high. Modern games only render areas that the player is observing, much like how reality might function in a simulation. Similarly, texture of game environments update as soon as they are viewed, reinforcing the idea that observation determines what is rendered. QUANTUM MECHANICS: The Ultimate Clue Quantum Mechanics challenges our fundamental understanding of reality, revealing a universe that behaves more like a computational process than a physical construct. The wave function (Ψ) describes a probability distribution, defining where a particle might be found. However, upon measurement, the particle’s position collapses into a definite state, raising a paradox: why does the smooth evolution of the wave function lead to discrete outcomes? This behavior mirrors how digital simulations optimize resources by rendering only what is observed, suggesting that reality itself may function as an information-processing system. The Born Rule reinforces this perspective by asserting that the probability of finding a particle at a given location is determined by the square of the wave function’s amplitude (|Ψ|²). This principle introduced probability into the very foundations of physics, replacing classical determinism with a probabilistic framework. Einstein famously resisted this notion, declaring, “God does not play dice,” yet Quantum Mechanics has since revealed that randomness and structure are not opposing forces but intertwined aspects of reality. If probability governs the fabric of our universe, it aligns with how simulations generate dynamic outcomes based on algorithmic rules rather than fixed physical laws. One of the most striking paradoxes supporting the Simulation Hypothesis is Schrödinger’s Cat, which illustrates the conflict between quantum superposition and observation. In a sealed box, a cat is both alive and dead until an observer opens the box, collapsing the wave function into a single state. This suggests that reality does not exist in a definite form until it is observed—just as digital environments in a simulation are rendered only when needed. Similarly, superposition demonstrates that a particle exists in multiple states until measured, while entanglement reveals that two particles can be instantaneously correlated across vast distances, defying classical locality. These phenomena hint at an underlying informational structure, much like a networked computational system where data is processed and linked instantaneously. Hugh Everett’s Many-Worlds Interpretation (MWI) takes this concept further by suggesting that reality does not collapse into a single outcome but instead branches into parallel universes, where each possible event occurs. Rather than a singular, objective reality, MWI posits that we exist within a constantly expanding system of computational possibilities—much like a simulation running countless parallel computations. Sean Carroll supports this view, arguing that the wave function itself is the fundamental reality, and measurements merely reveal different branches of an underlying universal structure. If our reality behaves like a quantum computational system—where probability governs outcomes, observation dictates existence, and parallel computations generate multiple possibilities—then the Simulation Hypothesis becomes a compelling explanation. The universe’s adherence to mathematical laws, discrete quantum states, and non-local interactions mirrors the behavior of an advanced simulation, where data is processed and rendered in real-time based on observational inputs. In this view, consciousness itself may act as the observer that dictates what is “rendered,” reinforcing the idea that we exist not in an independent, physical universe, but within a sophisticated computational framework indistinguishable from reality. Fractals - Another Blueprint of the MATRIX? Price movements wired by multi-cycles shaping market complexity. Long-term cycles define the broader trend, while short-term fluctuations create oscillations within that structure. Bitcoin’s movement influencing Altcoins exemplifies market entanglement—assets affecting each other, much like quantum particles. A single event in a correlated market can ripple across the entire system like in Butterfly effect. Just as a quantum particle exists in multiple states until observed, price action is a probability field—potential breakouts and breakdowns coexist until liquidity shifts. Before a definite major move, the market, like Schrödinger’s cat, remains both bullish and bearish until revealed by Fractal Hierarchy. (Model using Weierstrass Function ) A full fractal cycle consists of multiple oscillations that repeat in a structured yet complex manner. These cycles reflect the inherent scale-invariance of market movements—where the same structural patterns appear.. By visualizing the full fractal cycle: • We observe the relationship between micro-movements and macro-structures. • We track the transformation of price behavior as the fractal unfolds across time. • We avoid misleading interpretations that come from looking at an incomplete cycle, which may appear random or noisy From Wave of Probability to Reality 1. Fractal Probability Waves – The market does not move in a straight line but rather follows a probabilistic fractal wave, where past structures influence future movements. 2. Emerging Reality – As the price action unfolds, these probability waves materialize, turning potential fractal paths into actual price trends. 3. Scaling Effect – The same cyclical behavior repeats at different scales (6H vs. 1W in this case), reinforcing the concept that price movements are self-similar and probabilistically driven. If psychology of masses that shapes price dynamics is governed by mathematical sequences found in nature, it strongly supports the Simulation Hypothesis Do you think we live in a simulation? Let’s discuss in comments!
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
21
#Bitcoin $BTCUSD The Wedge dilemma.CRYPTO:BTCUSD Key Levels: 1. 109k 2. 150k 3. 85k 4. 75k CRYPTO:BTCUSD is currently trying to break a historical, old and respectful channel's upper wedge. Technically speaking, this wedge is a very significant level where it has been tested 5 times so far "illustrated on the chart". The last 2 attempts have shown that the wedge is still valid. Scenario A: Euphoria and institutions buying pressure will keep the price trading close enough to the wedge until it breaks out where it unlocks a new uncharted zone extended to the next psychological mark 150k. Scenario B: Price falls back to the nearest visible and massive demand zone around the 75k mark. I lean on a correction to the closest demand zone around the 75k mark. Corrections: It is worth noting that every time the price tests this wedge it causes a significant correction. "Check the illustrated table on the chart". Conclusion: Closing above 116k unlocks an uncharted zone to 150k Trading below the historical wedge will lead eventually to a retest of the 75k price level. #BTC #BITCOIN #CRYPTO #ANALYSIS #AHMEDMESBAH #SUPPLYANDDEMAND #BLOCKCHAIN #ETHEREUM
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by AhmedMesbah
2
AMD Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisLet’s revisit the key points from my last update on AMD, published on November 27th: We are currently correcting the bullish move from October 2022 to March 2024. Wave A of the second zigzag (labeled 'y') is nearing completion. The October 2023 trough aligns with an 80-week (80W) cycle trough. The first 20-week (20W) cycle within this 40W cycle was anticipated around December 18th. A rally is expected to follow before entering the extreme bearish phase. The 80W cycle trough is projected for early April 2025. Although the 20W cycle trough took slightly longer to form than expected, the overall analysis remains intact. We are currently progressing through wave B of y of (II), which I believe could push prices as high as 144. The 80W cycle trough is now projected for early May 2025.
NASDAQ:AMD
by bamdadsalarieh
Cycle similarity according to Pi-Cycle Top Risk/DeflectionAligning the bottoms of the Pi-Cycle Top Risk (PCTR)/Deflection (PCTD) indicator shows that this cycle has shown more similar behavior to the 2016-2017 cycle than the 2020-2021 cycle. So far we have had two major waves of the PCTR/PCTD, just as in the 2016-2017 cycle. The 2020-2021 cycle only had one. The third larger wave in the 2016-2017 cycle led to the blow-off top. This is just one piece to the puzzle, but I think we are looking at a "smoother" cycle until the top (similar to 2016-2017), but I don't think we will get a blow-off top again in $BTC. I'm looking for more of a Wykoff distribution top like the first top in 2020-2021. --Da_Prof
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Da_Prof
3
BTC Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisIn our previous update on December 25th, we projected BTC to push higher to complete wave V, followed by a bearish phase in March and April, with 121,500 identified as a potential peak target. The 20W cycle extended a bit longer than anticipated, forming on January 13th. Despite this, everything remains on track, and we are now in wave (b) of V, with my updated peak target at 118,500. Looking ahead, I expect the 40W cycle to form in May 2025. Until mid-March, the bullish trend should continue, after which bearishness is likely to set in, corresponding to the 40W cycle trough (wave B).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bamdadsalarieh
Possible downward breakout of $USDT.D as start of altcoin seasonThe Order Blocks may indicate that the often canceled Altcoin-Season could be imminent CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D dominance is struggling to break through the crucial Order Block in Chart 1 between 3.7%-4% to the downside If the breakout to the downside happens, nothing should hinder the Altcoin-Season 🙏 There is usually an inverse relationship between USDT dominance and altcoins. If the dominance falls, crypto degens exchange their stable token for altcoins and their prices rise Another positive sign is that CRYPTOCAP:ETH relative to CRYPTOCAP:BTC in BINANCE:ETHBTC chart faces two significant Order Blocks around the 0.03 and 0.025 ranges from 2021 If one of them holds and should an upward reversal occur here, CRYPTOCAP:ETH could lead altcoins upward as in past cycles
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by OfficerDonut
$TIA: Ready to Breakout After 5 Months of Consolidation? I think LSE:TIA is finally primed for a breakout after spending the last five months consolidating in the tight $4–$6 range. The lows have been respected multiple times, and we're now seeing the buildup of potential for a significant move. I’m eyeing an entry at $4.85, which would be a perfect spot to load up if we get a retrace into that zone. If it does dip back there, it's a max bid scenario for me. However, I'm also prepared to jump in a bit higher if needed, especially if I get left behind as the breakout gains momentum. It's a balancing act between waiting for the perfect entry and not missing out on the move entirely. Let’s see how it plays out—I'm keeping a close watch!
Long
by ZelfTrade
BTC - Time cycles unlock some key insights BTC is very clearly able to be carved out into time cycles, or 'Hurst' cycles, which are regular appearing patterns of units of time which can help us in informing price action. Looking at BTC, it's clearly cutting into cycles of about 40 days with the price action within each cycle very clearly going in either direction - apart from one! Looking at the most recent cycle we just entered into, the price action is likely to rise and continue to rise until either the middle of the cycle (target) or the end of the cycle (vertical line). So please add Hurst cycles to your cocktail of methods for understanding 'when' an event is likely to take place, or at least give you a marginally higher percentage probability. Good luck. Follow and share for more.
Long
by cryptechcapital
1
EUR USD - the battle of parityG'day traders, Welcome back to a new trading year. First up, i'll be taking a look at the EURO/USD as it is still in a strong downward to the right pattern respecting the strong curve of the weekly trendline. Please see below the Daily and weekly charts marked up. Follow along the video and hope it assists with your trading. I'll be looking for sells upon daily closes, weekly set and forget supply limits. Demand limits. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Previous charts Daily Chart Weekly Chart Updated in line with the video: Daily Weekly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. LVPA MMXXV
Short
by LupaCapital
Litecoin Breakout: Potential Gains and ProfitsAlright, let’s talk about Litecoin and why I think it’s gearing up for something big. The market's been showing solid gains across the altcoin sector , and Litecoin is definitely catching my eye right now. Here’s the deal: the LTCBTC pair looks like it’s finally bottomed out and is breaking out of a two-year downtrend line . If that sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve seen this before. Back in 2017 , Litecoin broke out of a similar downtrend, and the result? LTCUSD skyrocketed from $8 to $365 in just a year . Fast forward to today — 2023 and 2024 have been all about consolidation in the $100–$47 range . Now that we’ve broken through $135 , 2025 could be a massive year for Litecoin. My main target is $365 , but I’ve got my eye on some optional targets at $630 and even $1,300 . Why those higher targets? Simple. Looking at how the LTCBTC pair has performed in the past, even a small upward move there has historically triggered huge gains in LTCUSDT . Now, let’s break it down further. Litecoin’s price history shows recurring patterns — ascending triangles from 2015 to 2017 and now again from 2018 to 2025 . And these patterns play out in phases: 🔴 Downtrend 🟡 Consolidation 🟢 Breakout We’ve already seen this cycle happen three times — 2014 to 2018 , 2018 to 2021 , and now 2021 to 2025 . It’s all lining up again. The key now is to watch the details . Resistance levels, price action , and how the breakout unfolds will be crucial. If Litecoin follows through, it could be gearing up for a move that redefines its place in the market . Stay tuned — this could get really exciting.🍻 Some of past LTC charts:
CRYPTO:LTCUSD
by ArShevelev
7
Is Bitcoin Heading for $5M? An Analysis Using Fibonacci ChannelsThe report covers Bitcoin's price movements from its inception in 2012 to January 2025. By employing a logarithmic scale, percentage-based changes over time are emphasized, making it easier to identify growth trends and long-term movements. Fibonacci Channel The Fibonacci channel serves as the primary tool for identifying potential support and resistance levels. The parallel lines of the channel are spaced according to Fibonacci ratios and applied to price action to predict future movements. The report highlights that the current price ($101,419) is approaching the upper range of the channel. Price Targets The analysis proposes three speculative price targets for Bitcoin based on the Fibonacci channel: Conservative Target: $271,117 Moderate Target: $1,357,044 Aggressive Target: $5,045,505 These levels are plotted at the upper bounds of the Fibonacci channel, reflecting potential resistance zones in the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin. Bullish Long-Term Perspective The upward slope of the Fibonacci channel confirms the long-term bullish trend of Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin has maintained its position within this channel for over a decade strengthens its technical validity. The proximity of the current price to the channel's upper bound suggests potential volatility in the near term, with possibilities of either a breakout or a correction. Price Target Feasibility While the speculative targets indicate optimism, their exponential nature should be viewed with caution: Conservative Target: Plausible within a long-term context if Bitcoin's adoption and market dynamics sustain growth. Moderate and Aggressive Targets: These levels assume substantial market capitalization expansion, requiring significant adoption, institutional interest, and macroeconomic conditions conducive to growth. Critical Considerations Technical vs. Fundamental Factors The analysis is purely technical, overlooking fundamental elements such as: Adoption rates (e.g., Lightning Network growth, institutional investment). Regulatory developments (e.g., government interventions, taxation policies). Macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rates, economic stability). These factors could significantly influence Bitcoin's trajectory. Volatility and Risk Bitcoin's notorious volatility makes long-term projections uncertain. Historical data reveals frequent deviations from expected patterns, meaning Fibonacci-based targets might not materialize as anticipated. Logarithmic Scale and Weekly Timeframe The logarithmic scale provides a useful perspective for long-term percentage changes but may obscure short-term fluctuations. The weekly timeframe reinforces a macro view, but short-term traders may find limited actionable insights. Conclusion The report presents a compelling long-term bullish case for Bitcoin, using the Fibonacci channel to project speculative price targets. While the technical analysis is insightful, reliance solely on Fibonacci levels is risky in a highly volatile market like cryptocurrency. Investors should supplement this analysis with fundamental insights and remain cautious of speculative targets. This analysis underscores Bitcoin's potential for growth but also highlights the need for diversified strategies and vigilance in navigating the dynamic crypto market. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advisor. This analysis is purely for informational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading involves risk, and you should consult with a financial professional before making any decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SigmaSignals
THE LIQUIDITY PARADOX: Charting the Macro Environment for 2025WEN QE !? TL;DR there will be NO Quantitative Easing this cycle. YES the markets will still go to Valhalla. LIQUIDITY DRIVES MARKETS HIGHER. FULL STOP. Global M2 has a highly correlated inverse relationship with the US Dollar and 10Y Yield. Hence why we have been seeing the DXY and 10YY go up while Global M2 goes down. THE SETUP We are in a similar setup to 2017 when Trump took office. M2 found a bottom and ramped up, which toppled the DXY. Inflation nearly got cut in half until July 2017, where it then slowly started to creep back up as M2 and markets exploded. To much surprise, all this occurred while the Fed continued to RAISE INTEREST RATES. This was in part due to policy normalization with a growing economy coming out of the financial crisis and having near 0% interest rates for so long. In Q4 2014, the Fed paused QT, keeping its balance sheet near neutral for the next 3 years. As inflation started rising, QT was once again enacted, but very strategically with a slow roll-off in Q4 2017. This allowed markets to push further into 2018. THE PLAYBOOK M2 Global Money Supply: Higher Dollar: Lower Fed Funds Rates: Lower 10YY: Lower Fed Balance Sheet: Neutral Inflation: Neutral TOOLS Tariffs Deregulation Tax Cuts Tax Reform T-Bills HOW COULD WE POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? Trump has been screaming from the mountain tops; TARIFFS. Tariffs will slow imports and focus more on exports to weaken the dollar. The strong jobs data that has been spooking markets and strengthening the DXY will be revised to show it’s much worse than numbers are showing. The Fed will pause QT, saying it has ample reserves, but not enable QE. At the same time, they could pause interest rate cuts to keep a leash on markets and not kickstart inflation. Then once all the jobs data is revised and markets get spooked at a softened economy (Q2), they will continue cutting. WHY DOES THE FED KEEP CUTTING RATES EVEN WITH A STRONG ECONOMY? In short, the Fed has to cut interest rates for the US to manage its debt. THE US government is GETTEX:36T in debt. In 2025, interest projections are well above $1T. That would put the debt on par with the highest line items in the national budget such as social security, healthcare and national defense. The Treasury manages its debt by issuing securities with various maturities. When rates are low, they can refinance or issue new debt. As rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, and vice versa. It’s one of the underlying reasons why the Fed cut (but no one will say it out loud)… hence why everyone is so confused and screaming that they cut too early and the bond vigilantes have been revolting. HOW DOES THE MONEY SUPPLY GO UP IF NO QUANTITATIVE EASING? We’ve seen this before. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been telling you their playbook. In 2017, deregulation and tax cuts led to an increase in disposable income from individuals and corporations. Banks created more money in the markets through lending based on increased economic activity. Global liquidity increased in other major central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and PCOB who were still engaged in QE, and / or maintained very low interest rates, which created more liquidity in the US money supply. We’re seeing the same thing now with Central Banks around the world. The tax reform allowed for the repatriation of overseas profits at a lower tax rate, which brought a significant amount of cash back to the US. Like 2017, the US Treasury will increase short-term bill issuance (T-Bills), providing an alternative to the Reverse Repo (RRP), which reduces RRP usage. This provides liquidity to the markets because once the T-bills mature, funds can use the proceeds to invest in other assets, including stocks. Banks will buy T-bills and sell in the secondary market or hold til maturity, where they can then lend the cash or invest in equities. Another strategy to inject cash into the banking system would be standard Repo Operations. Here the Fed buys securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back later. This would increase lending and liquidity. Hopefully now you can see why markets DON’T NEED QUANTITATIVE EASING ! That would for sure lead to rampant inflation (see 2021), and blow up the system all over again.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonnieking