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Economic Cycles

Russel 2000 Compared to General MarketTVC:RUT has continued to sell off since my last couple posts and I believe we could see a huge market correction this year if price doesn't look to stop selling. The next play on RUT I would like to see price pullback to the last breakout zone ($2,200) to confirm a continuation in trend This play also looks very familiar to the 2022 selloff with equal highs to our current price structure. Seeing that AMEX:SPY is at a higher high tells me there is market-wide divergence and a topping pattern could be in play. Now when we add CRYPTOCAP:BTC and $OTHER to the mix we can see bitcoin actually tops out first while Alts and SPX look to make one more leg up before crashing out. The Trend Reader at the lower tab has topped out and has a bearish crossing in the overbought zone indicating we can see a long term play to the downside.
TVC:RUT
by Nathanl19
QQQ: Capacity of the PullbackThis chart presents a Fibonacci channel projection based on key swing points, including a Higher High, Higher Low, an All-Time High (ATH), and a current Lower Low. The levels of Fibonacci channel that market should abide by for the nearest future, are defined by: HL & LL - sets direction (fib 0 line); applied to ATH (fib 1 line). The derived fib ratios help to anticipate future price movements acting as key resistance where the pullback (reaction to prior impulsive bearish wave) might reach in respect to its structural capacity. B&W dashed line indicates a potential inflection point where the price could either reverse or extend further into supply zones.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by fract
1
ETH in a LIVERMORE Accumulation cylinder.What is a Livermore accumulation cylinder? The Livermore Accumulation Cylinder gained fame through the insights of Jesse Lauriston Livermore, a Massachusetts-born American investor celebrated as one of the most exceptional traders in history. His theory revolves around what is often referred to as an ascending broadening wedge, a phenomenon that unfolds over extended time frames. What is an accumulation cylinder with a widening mouth? First recognized by the iconic trader Jesse Livermore, who essentially laid the groundwork for technical analysis, the 'Accumulation Cylinder with Widening Mouth' is a unique and gradually developing pattern. In this scenario, the price oscillates between two diverging lines, creating a tension that can lead to a significant upward breakout. Is Ethereum resolving its own Livermore cylinder? This isn’t the first instance of cryptocurrency showcasing a Livermore cylinder: Ethereum might currently be in the midst of resolving its own version, and Bitcoin may have experienced a similar pattern back in 2017. While the charts may seem to align quite well, it’s crucial to remember that they are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Instead, they can serve as a valuable guide for managing risk, setting expectations, and establishing realistic profit targets. Many newcomers to crypto dream of achieving a 100x return, but as demonstrated by Bitcoin whales, true profits often come from strategically trimming and adjusting their positions, making only a few calculated moves from cycle to cycle.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by BallaJi
BLX and the Global EconomyUsing as a reference tool to compare the growth of Bitcoin (BLX chart) with the Global Economy as a metric and finding a solid bottom for the Global Economy metric at the 1.618 retracement in late September 2023 BLX (orange/white) candles Global Economy (blue/white candles) Global Economy Includes: ------------------------------- US total assets Central Bank Assets for Euro Area * Euro to US Dollar Rate less Reverse Repurchase Agreement (Reverse REPOs) less Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits with F.R. Banks, Other Than Reserve Balances: U.S. Treasury, General Account China Central Bank Balance Sheet * Chinese Yuan to United States Dollar Total Assets for Japan * Japanese Yen to United States Dollar NOTE: I have never tried to run a compare in Tradingview so I hope that the BLX compare continues to run alongside with the Global Economy. If this does not run in tandem I will update with monthly snapshots as a feel that this is an important metric in measuring how closely BTC could outpace or under-perform the Global Economy as whole. ▀▀█═╡🤡╞═█▀▀
FRED:WALCL
by Miles-Maddox
GBPUSD BUY 📊 Technical Analysis & Entry Signal 💹 🔍 The chart shows a strong uptrend where the price has broken a key resistance level and is now pulling back to retest it. As highlighted in the analysis, it's crucial to wait for a complete pullback and confirmation before entering a trade. 📈 Entry Signal: ✅ Entry: After pullback confirmation around 1.27570 🎯 Targets: First Target: 1.27952 Second Target: 1.28269 Third Target: 1.28645 🛑 Stop Loss: 1.27414 (Risk management is essential) 📝 Important Note: Always manage your risk and avoid entering without confirmation. 📉
Long
by EhsanZeydabadi
S&P500: Reasons of DeclineThe S&P 500 has been experiencing a clear downtrend, characterized by a progression of lower highs and lower lows meaning that each attempt at a rebound is met with increased selling, preventing the market from establishing a meaningful recovery. The current formation suggests that bearish sentiment is still dominant, with investors possibly looking for further downside support levels before a potential reversal. Until we see a shift in this downtrend structure, such as series a higher lows followed by a higher highs, the market is likely to remain under pressure. Another confirmation would be a breakout from line that connects ATH and 2 lower highs. Main factors in play: Geopolitical instability affecting investor confidence. Tariffs and trade wars increasing costs for businesses and consumers. Weakened global alliances leading to market uncertainty. Rising economic risks impacting corporate earnings and economic growth expectations. Protectionist policies can backfire U.S. tariffs negatively impact the economy by increasing costs for businesses and consumers, disrupting trade relationships, and fueling economic uncertainty. Recent tariffs on imports from trading partners like Mexico and Canada raise prices on goods such as automobiles, energy, raw materials, and food, leading to inflationary pressures that hurt both companies and consumers. Businesses reliant on imported components face higher production costs, forcing them to either absorb the costs, reducing profitability, or pass them on to consumers, decreasing demand. Retaliatory tariffs from affected countries further compound the issue by making U.S. exports less competitive abroad, harming industries like agriculture, manufacturing, and technology. The threat of supply chain disruptions and escalating trade conflicts creates market volatility creating discouraging investment climate and prompting sell-offs in equities. Additionally, fears of a broader economic slowdown due to weakened global trade relations further erode investor confidence, contributing to stock market declines. Impact of recent geopolitical shift The S&P 500 likely fell in response to the geopolitical instability and uncertainty stemming from recent events. Investors tend to react negatively to signs of weakening U.S. leadership on the global stage, especially when it leads to disruptions in alliances and strategic partnerships that have historically provided economic and military stability. Seeing the U.S. aligning with autocracies while European and NATO allies are preparing for a future without American leadership introduces concerns about global security and long-term economic consequences. Furthermore, the perception that adversaries of free world may become more aggressive, potentially escalating conflicts, obviously adds to market anxieties. Investors fear that heightened geopolitical tensions could lead to disruptions in trade, energy markets, and global supply chains, all of which can negatively impact corporate earnings and economic growth. As a result, market participants likely sold off equities in favor of safer assets, leading to a decline in the S&P 500. This demonstrates how political decisions can have far-reaching effects on financial markets and beyond.
AMEX:SPY
by fract
4
Bitcoin: Rejected HighBy referring historic price dynamics, I'll attempt to explain future possible swings and their limits structurally. But first it would be nice to drop a few words on recent history. As you remember price has broken below the triangle which caused the selloff establishing a bottom. The new Lower Low's can be referred through line that starts from triangle's low point. That line happens to be parallel to triangle's top side. Also we can see that recent uptrend locally stopped at line that covers lowest points of the triangle pattern. The fact that a particular angle explains a considerable number of support and resistance points, justifies the use of fibonacci channel as one of the elements for future price anticipation. The interconnected structure that you see in interactive chart factors in the coordinates newly established LL, the rejected LH and support levels of the broken triangle.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by fract
3
Crypto is correlated to the 4 yr business cycleISM survey results show 4 distinct phases (seasons) we are in the beginning of the expansion phase when ISM ticks up, and crypto, benefiting from all the newly injected liquidity, benefits This chart shows the last few cycles for comparison, and to illustrate that 2021 was a shortened cycle because of the black swan impact of covid. Expect financial conditions to improve dramatically this year, and you can use this chart as a forward indicator to demonstrate that patterns don't repeat exactly, but the rhyme quite often.
ECONOMICS:USBCOILong
by rabbidfly
1
BTC dell 120.000$📊 BTCUSDT Analysis: Current Price: $102,859.06 Sell Zone: Near $120,000.00 (🟢 Major resistance) Support Zone: $77,777.00 (🛡️ Key level for potential rebound) 🚨 Signal: Bearish Scenario: If BTC reaches $120,000.00, it’s a sell opportunity 📉. Bullish Scenario: In a strong bull trend (📈), you can buy dips around $77,777.00 (🚀 support area). 💡 Strategy: Take profits near $120,000.00 🎯 if already holding BTC. Watch for entries at $77,777.00 🔍 if BTC retraces. 📈 Trend: Overall Bullish unless support at $93,175 or $77,777 breaks (🔻). 🔐 Risk Management: Stop-loss for buys: Below $73,316.18 (⚠️ Critical level). Let me know if you need further clarification or tailored strategies!
Long
by EhsanZeydabadi
BITCOIN FILLED CME GAPToday BTC might have bounced-off a 5 months away gap. OPPORTUNITY : Ideal buy was in the now filled CME GAP. We might revisit these price, so 79100$ remain a good spot for a BUY/LONG alert. General buy zone is from 72.5k$ to 85k$ and should last until approximately mid April . TARGETS : Ideal sell would be 136425$ in late July (23/07). Probable sell zone go from 130k$ to 160k$ and should span from early June to early August . MAXIMAL $ TARGET : - There is still a chance for a powerful leg up, in the event of prices nearing 200k$ , profit will have to be taken regularly and without restraint. MINIMAL $ TARGET : - A faillure to break above last ATH, so 110k$ is definitely a partial sell price (and will react). MAXIMAL time TARGET : - All positions (including altcoins) should be closed before October 2025. Based on Chart Tools : - Fibonacci levels from Retracement and Extension - Expansion/Consolidation periods durations tendencies from this bullrun - Regression over time of said periods - Percent change of said Expansions periods Statistical Arguments : - Past Bitcoin cycles (2016 & 2021) general seasonality - Coinglass's Bull-Market-Peak-Signals had 0/30 indicators showing a top Fundamentals : - Optimistic US inflation - Peace negociations - Pro-business policies - Blockchain technology usage growth - Bitcoin & major crypto adoption in finance Bias : - Up-trend intact - No hard corrections compared to previous bullrun - I guess i could use some profit
CME:BTC1!Long
by LOKEN94