Breakout Signals via Asymmetrical AveragingSpecial Application of Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change Indicator
INDICATOR AVERAGES BULLISH AND BEARISH VOLATILITY SEPARATELY THROUGH THEIR NATIVE PAST CANDLE COUNT. NOT PERIODICALLY!
Asymmetrical averaging is a versatile technique that involves assigning different lengths for independent averaging of opposite market forces. This adaptability uncovers high-probability breakout signals by establishing a threshold that filters out irrelevant fluctuations.
Below, I illustrated 2 practical examples of the method applied to bullish and bearish breakout scenarios:
Bullish Breakout Example:
Set the bullish averaging to 30 and the bearish averaging to 1000.
If the bullish average consistently surpasses the bearish threshold, it indicates robust buying momentum and a potential breakout to the upside.
The extreme bearish average establishes a consistent baseline, filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on significant upward momentum to deliver reliable bullish breakout signals.
Bearish Breakout Example:
Set the bearish averaging to 30 and the bullish averaging to 1000.
If the bearish average rises above the bullish threshold, it signals growing selling pressure and a potential breakout to the downside.
The extreme bullish average provides a steady reference point, eliminating minor fluctuations and isolating significant downward momentum for dependable bearish breakout signals.
LINK TO THE INDICATOR:
Economic Cycles
BTC ATH | Bitcoin Dominance | Alt Season Interesting insights can be gather from the Bitcoin dominance chart and the altcoin chart (TOTAL3).
You can see some interesting patterns when you overlap them, and monitor for previous "fractals" or patterns.
Some of the key insights you can gain from this combo:
👉 The BTC peak / ATH, or not
👉 The end of Altseason
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COINBASE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
Trade Recap: USDJPY - LONG, 26/11/2024UJ Bias Analysis: Not the best looking pair in hindsight, but with a clear counter-trend established to the upside, price had corrected to the 79% discount level during NY Killzone, sweeping session liquidity before entry confirmation was received.
Grade: Low Risk
What I did well or could've done better:
- Executed according to the plan and managed the position accordingly.
Alt Market been super boringUntil Eth makes its run, alt coins tied to it for the most part will continue their boring pattern.
AI hype seems to have died down and Fetch will probably make a run, but a 2-4x on this coin is probably the most we will see. Hopefully I am wrong.
Keeping my eye peeled for the next faction of this market run up.
BLX curves worth more than long speechesHistorically this indicator provided a good overview of the range of BTC price since its early days. Obviously, in the long term it will become depreciated. However, so far, it seems to be pretty accurate. This is the result of 2 curve lines on both ends.
Noting that tops are difficult to draw accurately and predict since we are on a logarithmic scale and fewer tops are touched (a small change puts the price to 195k$).
Yet, it provides a pretty accurate insight of what the bottom price could be.
For people who don't own BTC, a good strategy would be to be patient and start an aggressive DCA strategy close to the bottom curve.
BTC USDT - day trade 25/11/2002BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
Bitcoin Day Trading Plan
The process reveals a powerful decline below the trading range, reminiscent of a TSO (Terminal Shakeout).
Particular emphasis should be placed on the green candlestick, which indicates the presence of high-quality buyers in the process.
Additionally, it is evident that the entire downward movement is accompanied by an extremely low RSI, significantly below the 30 level.
Clear bullish trend and signsAlthough we could see a draw back to arnd 65k support, btc will see ATH's soon. I predict the end of this bullish cycle arnd 105-115k.
Cup&handle formed.
No advice, just my believe/interpretation.
Due to the power of big players we could see manufactured dips, I'll consider these as false.
Cycle 4 | LOG Trend LinesA throwback update to some of our earlier posts looking at long trend lines and extending them from points of interest... use the Interactve chart and future price movements to see how successful / useful they have been in identifying potential points of interest for support and resistance.
Currently BTC is interacting with long trend lines developed from our prior cycle technical and ATH. Trend line angle when extended below shows how future price resect these line levels.
Is Now The Time To Call The Top?With a new higher high formed on the Dollar, which mitigated a monthly Order Block and weekly Fair Value Gap, is now the time to be asking whether the top is in and a major reversal is pending?
Personally, I say yes, but price action still needs to confirm this as we can always continue trading higher. On the daily we have minor and major swing points from which IRL can be mitigated before a continuation higher and for the time being I'll be monitoring the various points as per the analysis for signs of a continuation higher or
The subjectivity in my analysis stems from the fact that pairs are no longer trading in unison across the board with EU still tumbling lower with the Dollar while AU has begun shifting higher. UJ is not clear as it's exhibiting signs if going both higher and lower so monitoring further development will be key.
My bias for the WEEK is as follows:
DXY - LONG
EURUSD - SHORT
AUDUSD - LONG
GBPJPY - SHORT
USDJPY - LONG
$LINK Breakout Imminent! $150 Easy!CHAINLINK IS A SLEEPING GIANT 🦣
It has been going through a 938 Day accumulation phase, and pushing for a breakout ~$25.
While we’ve been seeing other 2017 dino-coins reach their previous ATH, CRYPTOCAP:LINK is still 200% away from its own.
LINK will easily hit $125 - $150 this cycle, which will put its market cap ~$80-95 Billion.
That’s the current size of the CRYPTOCAP:XRP market cap, and we all know Ripple is a vaporware company whose main revenue stream is dumping tokens onto the open market.
Chainlink on the other hand is imperative for the functionality of web3 dApps as its oracles provide smart contracts on blockchains with access to real-world data.
This is why the largest global financial messaging platform, SWIFT, has incorporated Chainlink’s CCIP into their systems.
Easy 8x from here.
Biggest no-brainer Risk / Reward trade left on the market 💯
Crypto Week 47 AnalysisIt seems like that all Major 3 Crypto Coins are in Premium.
All of them are above True Week Open, True Month Open and True Year Open except for BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P Which is below True Year Open.
We are using a gap from previous Year Q4 that merge with a weekly gap. and we have a PSP in a weekly graph right about it.
Near True Year Open BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P there is a Gap from previous Monday in 3h graph.
I think I would like to see BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P getting into the 3h gap and targeting the True Year Open.
Current target in BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P is True year Open
After touching it I'll be bearish since the price is in a major Premium.
Crypto 4-Year Cycle, Monthly ViewThis chart paints a macro view of the 4-year cryptocurrency cycle, which is based around the Bitcoin halving events. This should give you a general idea of when a bull run is likely to occur, but you should use many other indicators for actual buying/selling decisions.
A few quick notes on this chart:
-BTC, ETH, and DOGE USD pairs are displayed on this chart (the top crypto, the top L1, and the top meme coin).
-My definition of the the bull run is when BTC dominance begins to fall on the monthly chart. This is when things tend to go a bit parabolic for the rest of the market. The end of the bull run is marked by BTC dominance rising on the monthly chart.
-The vertical yellow lines represent every subsequent 12 bars/months post-halving.
-Dates are estimates as this chart is in the monthly timeframe. Results may vary in different timeframe views.
-There are many other factors that may impact the 4-year cycle, such as ETH/BTC valuations, ETH dominance, USDT dominance, quantitative easing/tightening, black swan events, federal funds rates, etc. - none of these are considered in this chart.
Enjoy! :)
POLKADOT, TIME TO LEAVE THE HELLAltcoin Time: Polkadot Bullish Swing Trading
Polkadot is showing several bullish signals:
PML being disrespected
PWL being disrespected
PWH being disrespected
PDL being disrespected
PDH being disrespected
Daily Bullish FVG being respected
4H Bullish FVG being respected
4H Swing Low being disrespected
Bearish Argument:
4H Swing High is being respected
Altseason seems to be brewing, but as day or swing traders, we must remain cautious about short-term movements. Ignore the noise on social media and rely on your analysis and experience.
Risk management is everything. If you risk more than you can afford to lose, you’ll end up emotionally drained. Protect your mindset by applying proper risk management techniques.
Risk-to-Reward (RR): 5.2
Altseason Starts SoonThe Chart above show Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) over time, with highlighted patterns and cycles that may be tied to Bitcoin halvings and market trends. Here’s my analysis based on the chart's structure:
Key Observations:
Repeated Patterns:
The chart highlights similar phases of Bitcoin dominance decline across three separate cycles, lasting roughly 231 days.
Each phase seems to correspond to a bearish period for Bitcoin dominance, where altcoins gain relative strength.
Halving Impact:
Vertical lines mark Bitcoin halving dates (green lines), which historically have a significant impact on the crypto market.
Following halvings, BTC dominance often rises as Bitcoin leads the market in initial rallies.
Projection:
The chart projects a decline in dominance after the current rally, extending into mid-to-late 2024.
A potential drop to ~44%-46% dominance is outlined, indicating a possible altcoin season or broader market rotation.
Support and Resistance:
The chart highlights a resistance zone around 62% dominance, which Bitcoin dominance seems to have tested recently.
A bearish breakout is suggested, aligning with a downward trend in the future.
Possible Interpretation:
Short-Term View: Bitcoin dominance might continue upward for a while but could face resistance near 60%-62%. If this area holds, a reversal could lead to dominance declining, benefiting altcoins.
Medium-Term View: If the projection holds, BTC dominance could see a prolonged decline lasting nearly a year, dropping below 50%. This scenario typically coincides with altcoin seasons where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in relative gains.
Risk Factors:Bitcoin dominance does not always drop due to bullish altcoins; it can also decline during a market-wide sell-off where Bitcoin loses less than altcoins. Macroeconomic factors, regulatory changes, and adoption rates could alter the outcome.
Long Term Fibonacci Based History & ForecastLOGARITHMIC FIB PATTERNS
Based upon previous high and low
2011 $31.91 top (blue fibs): 2.786 extension
2013 $1242 top (yellow fibs): 2.272 extension
2017 $19804 top (green fibs): 2.272 extension
2021 $? top (light blue fibs): 2.272 or 2.786 extension at $207.467 or $269.674 respectively
Based upon 2013 $266 high and $65.42 low (magenta fibs)
2013 $1242 top: 2 extension
2017 $19804 top: 4 extension
2021 $? top: 6 extension at $295.620
Based upon 2011 $31.91 high and $1.99 low (yellow fibs)
2013 $1242 top: 2.272 extension
2017 $19804 top: 3.272 extension
2021 $? top: 4.272 extension at $279.809
TIMELINE & CONCLUSION
Current velocity compared to prior 2013-2017 period is higher (bar pattern red) than before (bar pattern faint orange) which at current speed could put in the top around June/July 2021.
We have already reached the intermediate top around $62.000. In April 2013 this was equivalent to the $177 level (seen on yellow fib) and in August 2017 the $4373 level (seen on green fib).
Price targets for this year could be around $207.467 at the low end and $269.674 to $295.620 at the high end.