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Economic Cycles

History repeats itselfOANDA:EURUSD Here’s a technical analysis of the higher timeframes, specifically the monthly chart for EUR/USD. As clearly visible, price action is currently moving within a respected descending channel. The saying "history repeats itself" seems particularly relevant here, especially in the context of Trump’s presidency. While this topic has been discussed frequently, I wanted to highlight the striking similarities once again. The current market cycle closely mirrors the previous one from 2016-2017 — in terms of structure, timing, and volume. At present, we appear to be in the distribution phase, which is far from complete. It’s quite plausible that we may see further downside before another significant move to the upside begins. If we take the 2017 distribution phase as a reference (lasting approximately 300 days), the current phase has only been unfolding for around 80-100 days. Of course, there is no guarantee that price will rise again — but I consider it very likely that this market cycle has not yet fully played out. Technical analysis on higher timeframes often provides stronger probabilities and a clearer picture of the overall trend. On the right-hand side of the chart, I’ve marked a weekly imbalance (not directly visible on the monthly chart), which aligns with the 50% retracement level of the Fibonacci tool. I view this confluence as a strong potential entry for a swing trade targeting the upper boundary of the descending channel. This outlines my current trading outlook.
by Crispp
EURUSD/M15 💫 The Euro structure is bearish in the higher time frame, while we have a bullish trend in the intermediate time frame. 👈 According to the marked zones on the chart, if the price returns to the green zone and we see a trigger, we can enter a sell position targeting the lower green zone. 👈 Given the bearish structure of the higher time frame, we anticipate further decline. However, for lower targets, we will wait for the price's reaction to the lower zone, which will confirm the trend change in the intermediate time frame. ⚠️ Please note that if you enter a sell position, your first target should be the lower green zone. ⚠️ Be cautious: If the price touches the lower green zone without returning to the upper zone and then moves back up, the upper zone is invalidated, and no further positions should be taken in that area. #Eurusd/M15
Short
by H_Rsp
DYM New Update (3D)It seems a fractal pattern is repeating. The red boxes represent the drop waves, while the green boxes indicate the sideways waves. It appears that the second drop wave, with over a 92% decline, has ended, and the price has entered a trading range phase. The price corrections can be considered as opportunities for buy/long positions, and the top of the red box can be regarded as the peak of this wave. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
2
Just a Thought: What If the Big Bull Run Starts Next February?Chart: SOLUSDT Perpetual (1W) Let’s play devil’s advocate for a second… 📉 What if: The most recent pullback from Solana’s all-time high wasn’t just a dip to find support, but a high timeframe market structure break (MSS)? We wicked right into the Point of Control (POC) at $126, a critical level going back to Solana’s inception. Many saw that as a liquidity sweep, which it is, but what if that break was confirmation of a shift in the macro structure? Since then, we’ve seen a corrective rally, and as of now, price is approaching the golden pocket (0.618–0.65) around the $200 region coupled with time Fib confluence around June 25. ⚪ The ABC Hypothesis: There’s a clean potential for an (A)-(B)-(C) correction. If the market can’t push through the $200 resistance in June, we could see a dragged out move down into the 1:1 extension, which interestingly aligns with key monthly naked POCs (MNPOCs) at $73 and $41, and specifically the 1:1 at $49 (highlighted on the chart for September 25). That would create a textbook ABC correction, where: • A = drop from ATH to MSS • B = golden pocket retracement • C = 1:1 extension, sweeping long-term liquidity 📅 What if the real bull run doesn’t start until Feb 2026? Everyone’s calling for the big breakout this year… but what if we need one last washout to fully reset? That timing aligns eerily well with early Q1 2026, after a final leg down. Chart Legend: • ✅ Green line = current price • 🔴 POC = Point of Control (macro volume node) • ⚪ White lines = ABC structure • 🔵 Blue verticals = time-based Fibonacci • 🟡 Golden Pocket = 0.618–0.65 retracement • 🟣 MNPOC Levels = untested monthly points of control Just a theory. Not advice. DYOR. What do you think? Could the real reset be coming?
by turnandshoot
2
$LTC the EndgameWatching the planets slowly position for COINBASE:LTCUSD since the 2017 top has been very interesting to say the least. I can almost imagine a BITSTAMP:XRPUSD style advance right in the face of doubters and disbelievers in the crypto markets. Very few currently think COINBASE:LTCUSD has any potential yet it is poised to be the third SEC approved ETF as soon as this summer with a fraction of the Marketcap of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and $ETHUSD. I think we will potentially see fireworks from COINBASE:LTCUSD in July. Arise Chickun.... Arise.
BINANCE:LTCUSDLong
by forclout
1
NDX Index Funds Vs Foreign NDX funds performance post rotationThis nothing but an idea I am publishing to track my performance for rotating profits in NDX funds into averaging down foreign funds in a retirement portfolio. I want to point out had taken profits previously and was trading bitcoin and GME with them until i found a candidate for rotation at a price point i liked. I am neither bullish or bearish. The publication is for me others to learn how well rotation performs over time versus setting and forgetting.
NASDAQ:FPXI
by HotsauceShoTYME
CYCLE 4 | Pull back complete!Hi team, The purpose of this post is to close out our thoughts posted back in December 2024 with the suggestion of a possible 30-40% correction scenario we envisioned BTC might look to complete over the upcoming months, and what we wanted to see the bulls achieve in order for Cycle 4 to move into its final phase. Using this set up we can look towards where BTC may look towards from here. These steps were outlined in the below two posts: CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back (Dec 20 - 2024) CYCLE 4 | UPDATE - BTC Possible Next Move into Sell Zone (Feb 14 - 2025) REVIEWING WHAT HAPPENED In these posts we suggested 1) BTC will likely pull back and look for opportunities for support 2) We outlined the following levels * Demand Zone and bottom of our defined Price Channel (92-90K) * Daily Order Block (OB) (88.5-87.9k) * CME GAP - down as far as ~77K and suggested a wick on the weekly down to our March 2024 high would not be out of the question These levels all were taken out with our worst-case forecast achieved. Bulls then successfully preceded to complete the requirements we set out in these posts: 1) Uptrend Channel: No Open / Close weekly candle outside of, push back within and HOLD as support / HOLD and remain inside of our cycle uptrend channel (keep BTCs relationship with this trend line intact). 2) Daily OB: Flip and hold as support (BTC first attempt was rejected, held as resistance and allow a more bullish double bottom to be formed). 3) 20W SMA / 21W EMA: Flip and hold these moving averages 4) Price Channel: Push back inside and hold with a least two weekly candle closes. WHERE TO FROM HERE We are now at this point where BTC is now poised to look at a new ATH. BULLs are looking for BTC to finish off this cycle, and the set up aligns perfectly with our 'Sell Zone' box time frame we have put in place to help us navigate this cycle. Our 'MA OSCILLATOR RISK METRIC' (see charts in below posts for updates) has swung back into our RL level of 7 and moving back towards out cycle peak risk levels. To achieve a 'proper' finishing ATH bulls are looking for in this zone we would want to see BTC start to making aggressive moves from here in Q3 & Q4 of 2025. The biggest concerns for BULLs and the upcoming case for bears is the weekly bearish divergences BTC has put in place with our prior ATHs this cycle. This is most notable in the RSI shown in this posts original chart. From here there are 3 likely scenarios BTC could take based on rejects of our RSI dark black tend line and in place weekly bearish divergences. These Scenarios are marked 1, 2 and 3. Scenario 1 BTC moves aggressively out of this price channel to new ATHs. There is a chance Bears could push price into a lower high here or put in a 'SFP' (Swing Failure Pattern) and sweep our prior high. Scenario 1a This would play out scenario 1a which bulls would want to see a retest and hold of the 20W SMA / 21W EMA before heading back up to attack high levels. We would expect our RSI moving Advertage to provide support in this level (see point 1a in the RSI chart). Failure to hold would strongly support the suggestion of cycle 5s bear market beginning IMO. Scenario 2 A HOLD and bounce off the 20W SMA / 21W EMA again would give bears another chance to put bearish divergence with the weekly RSI. Watch for a higher high in price (likely a SFP or sweep of our current ATH) and a lower high closed in our Weekly RSI. This would be a scary scenario for the bulls. BULLISH SCENARIO | BREAKING THE RSI BEARISH DIVERGENCE DOWN TREND LINE The most bullish move BTC Bulls could achieve in all the above scenarios is to breaking above the RSI Bearish Divergence Down Trend Line (shown as green up trend arrows in the RSI). This will invalidate current bearish divergences and sent bulls focus on the more speculative upper targets for this cycle. Hope you have found this post series an interesting watch as I have.
Long
by Brodie
$BTC Post Death Cross PA Has NOT Confirmed 200DMA - Must Read!Throughout Bitcoin's history it has had 11 Death Crosses (50DMA crossing under 200DMA), and 10 of those times price has retested the 200DMA within ~3 months (with 1 outlier). Do you know what time it did NOT retest the 200DMA? You might have guessed it… this most recent death cross ☠️ The only outlier that price did not retest the 200DMA within ~3 months was in 2015, where it took nearly a year to retest. In that time, CRYPTOCAP:BTC ripped 200% just 75 days later, which marked the start of the PARABOLA. This is why I have been so adamant with sticking to my base case for Bitcoin’s next move. Is this time different? 🥸 Will it take nearly a year to retest the 200DMA? An interesting observation I found was that if we take 90D from the most recent death cross, it brings us out to July 6th, which is right around when the 90-day pause of tariffs is lifted 🧐 Having said all that, if PA confidently breaks above and confirms previous ATH (~$110k), I will lean towards the 2015 outlier for the 200DMA retest, which would put us into late Q1 2026. That would line up nicely with a suspected top of the cycle 🥲
INDEX:BTCUSD
by jonnieking
Thesis — How XRP Could Reach Triple Digits Within 12 MonthsAbout a month ago, I pointed out a pattern that preceded XRP’s explosive bull run in 2017. That same pattern is now playing out almost identically — and if the fractal continues to hold, XRP could be gearing up for another major move. Frankly, the 4-hour chart is a near-mirror image of 2017’s setup. I’ve overlaid the original bar pattern onto today’s price action — the resemblance is hard to ignore. If this plays out: We could see a test of all-time highs within a week Double-digit XRP by mid-year Triple-digit XRP by late 2025 or early 2026 No guarantees, of course — but the structure is clear, and the setup is there. For context, I view the November rally as XRP simply reverting to where it would have been had regulatory pressure not artificially suppressed the price. That move wasn’t the bull run — it was a reset. Importantly, alt season still hasn’t kicked off (just look at BTC dominance), and XRP’s fundamentals are stronger than ever: Lawsuit behind us ETFs likely coming Ongoing partnerships Pro-crypto regulatory tone globally Technically and fundamentally, XRP has never looked better.
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by Drmagicman
Altcoin Market (OTHERS) Cycle Analysis: To the Moon !Let’s take a closer look at the previous bull cycle of the Others (Altcoin Market Cap excluding BTC & ETH) chart. Before the major upward move, the market declined for months, eventually finding strong support around the $170B level. After forming a higher low and a clear change of character (CHOCH), the market entered a sustained bullish phase. For 124 consecutive days, we witnessed a strong altcoin rally. As of now, price action appears to be mirroring that same structure — but with a potential to push even higher than the previous ATH. In this scenario, the target stands around the $470B level. As long as OTHERS holds above the $170B support, the altcoin market remains in recovery mode, and further upside is very much on the table. — Thanks for reading.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by vs_sayin
5