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Economic Cycles

[ TimeLine ] Gold 14 April 2025Hello everyone, 📅 Today is Monday, April 14, 2025 I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as key reference points for potential trade entries: 📌 April 14, 2025 (Monday) 📌 April 14 & 15, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday) 🧠 Trading Plan: ✅ Wait for the price range to form from the above candles (marked with green lines). ✅ Trade entry will be triggered if price breaks out of the range , including a 60-pip buffer. ✅ If price reverses and hits Stop Loss (SL) , we will cut/switch the position and double the size to recover losses on the next entry. 📉📈 Chart Reference: 🔗 Copy and paste this code in your TradingView URL: TV/x/ZYrPFZTC/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
BTC/USD - The Bitcoin Cycle TopBTC has recently broken below a key uptrend line that had been guiding price for some time. I’m watching for a potential backtest of that broken trendline, a rather classic move that could set the stage for a final upwards squeeze, possibly printing a quick higher high to trap late longs. I’m watching the circled area closely as a potential exhaustion zone. Key levels and price action around the trendline will be critical, breaking of upwards trendlines after backtesting may mark the beginning of the larger unwind. We could see multiple backtests of the broken trendline over time, with the trendline now likely acting as resistance. Note: I’m publishing this idea simply to have a timestamped record. This post is my way of putting a clear marker in the sand. I’m not looking to debate or go deeper into the reasoning, and I generally won’t be responding to comments.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by eliasson89
1
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Risk IndicatorIn this idea, I’ll walk you through the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Risk Indicator — a tool based on the well-known Pi Cycle Top Indicator. By the end, we’ll have a new lens to analyze INDEX:BTCUSD market cycles. 👇 First, a quick recap of the original Pi Cycle Top Indicator. It uses two moving averages: — 111-day MA (111DMA) — 350-day MA × 2 (350DMA x 2) A bullish crossover (111DMA crossing above 350DMA×2) historically predicted BTC tops within 3 days. However, one sould know that in 2021 the signal occurred in April (the first peak). The higher November peak didn’t trigger the indicator. Now let’s take the ratio: 111DMA / (350DMA × 2) → this gives us the Pi Cycle Top Ratio (orange line). When the ratio crosses 1 from below, that’s equivalent to the original Pi Cycle Top signal. As you can see: each new major peak is lower than the previous. In 2021, the ratio barely touched 1. This implies that in this cycle, the moving averages may not cross — and Pi Cycle Top Indicator may not generate a signal . Can we forecast the next peak of the Ratio? (Keep in mind: Ratio peaks ≠ BTC price peaks but we'll get back to it later.) Turns out the Ratio peaks fit nicely along a logarithmic curve — let’s plot it. And the lows sit on a straight line. We add both bounds, plus a midline. Now we have a band within which the Ratio tends to move — useful for anticipating turning points. Next, let’s normalize the Ratio within this band: — bottom bound = 0 — top bound = 1 This gives us the Pi Cycle Top Risk indicator — a clean, scaled version of market risk. Currently, it sits at 0.47 , right around the mid-range. Now let’s compare Pi Cycle Top Risk to past BTC tops and bottoms (using daily closes). We’ll treat April 2021 as the last cycle top. The chart shows: — BTC tops occurred when Risk ≥ 0.79 — Bottoms occurred when Risk ≤ 0.24 (or ≤ 0.10 excluding 2011) Summary: 1. Right now, Pi Cycle Top Risk ≈ 0.47 and has been hovering near 0.5 for the past year. This reflects a relatively low volatility during this market cycle — BTC has been rising steadily, with pauses for consolidation, no mania phase and blow-off top. 2. How can we use this going forward? I can’t say whether the Risk will rise or fall — and there’s no guarantee it’ll hit the boundaries. But if it's ever: — Above 0.9 (bright-red zone) → strong signal to consider selling — Below 0.1 (bright-green zone) → potentially good buy opportunities Not financial advice. We’ll keep tracking it.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ChartNChill
1
Altcoin Market (OTHERS) Cycle Analysis: To the Moon !Let’s take a closer look at the previous bull cycle of the Others (Altcoin Market Cap excluding BTC & ETH) chart. Before the major upward move, the market declined for months, eventually finding strong support around the $170B level. After forming a higher low and a clear change of character (CHOCH), the market entered a sustained bullish phase. For 124 consecutive days, we witnessed a strong altcoin rally. As of now, price action appears to be mirroring that same structure — but with a potential to push even higher than the previous ATH. In this scenario, the target stands around the $470B level. As long as OTHERS holds above the $170B support, the altcoin market remains in recovery mode, and further upside is very much on the table. — Thanks for reading.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by vs_sayin
5
Will Nasdaq Test Liquidity at 17,800 Before an Upside Move?NASDAQ is experiencing bearish slow down at the support level for the past 3 weeks. A re-test of the recent low looks imminent. and if price could be rejected after clearing H4 liquidity at 17,800, then we could see a sharp upside move. Key risks: Fed commentary, major tech earnings, and geopolitical headlines. N.B! - NASDAQ price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #nq! #nasdaq
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by BullBearMkt
4
Altseason and a Weak Dollar — Will History Repeat in 2025?The altseason of 2017 started at the same time as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) began to fall. This likely helped bring more money into the crypto market. In 2020–2021, a similar thing happened: the falling dollar was followed by a strong rise in altcoins. But that time, altseason started closer to the end of the dollar’s decline. A weaker dollar makes risky assets like crypto more attractive. In April 2020, the total crypto market cap was around $218 billion. Today, it’s about $2.63 trillion — around 12 times bigger. However, to start a new altseason now, the market may need a lot more cheap money than in 2020. I’m not sure if the 2025 altseason can be as strong as in the past. Now it seems that the only way to repeat that success is if a big part of the capital moves from Bitcoin into altcoins. This would need a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance. But this brings new questions. After the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the ownership structure has changed. Many people now own Bitcoin through investment funds, not directly. These funds may not be very excited to invest in altcoins. What do you think about it? Share your opinion in the comments.
TVC:DXY
by CapitalHustle
Master Forex Trading with ICT Kill Zones (2024 Guide)The forex market runs 24/5, but not all hours are equally profitable. ICT Kill Zones highlight the 4 most volatile trading windows where institutional activity creates prime opportunities. ICT Kill Zones Timetable (GMT/EST) Asian: 8PM - 10PM EST / 12AM - 2AM GMT London: 2AM - 5AM EST / 6AM - 9AM GMT New York: 7AM - 9AM EST / 11AM - 1PM GMT London Close: 10AM - 12PM EST / 2PM - 4PM GMT Key Characteristics: Asian Session Best for AUD, NZD, JPY pairs Low volatility; ideal for 15-20 pip scalps London Session Highest liquidity (trade EUR/GBP) Often sets daily highs/lows New York Session Overlap with London creates high volatility Focus on USD pairs (e.g., USD/CAD) London Close Price retracements to daily range Quick 15-20 pip reversal plays
Education
by InnerCircleAnalysis
BNB AnalysisBinance Coin (BNB) Analysis – March 30, 2025 In today's analysis, we examine Binance Coin's price movements using the 4-hour timeframe to assess its potential future direction. 🔹 Key Support Levels: BNB remains above a crucial support range of $607–$593, which has held since March 16. If this support breaks, the price may test $546 as the next reaction level. Further downside could see BNB dropping to $530 and $507 as additional support zones. 🔹 Key Resistance Levels: On the upside, BNB faces resistance at $637–$644. A confirmed breakout above this zone could push the price toward $700, following the same price range projection method used for support breakdowns. 📌 Outlook: BNB’s trend remains neutral as long as the key support holds. A break below $593 could trigger a bearish move, while a break above $644 may confirm a bullish trend with $700 as the next target.
by EhsanZeydabadi
NVIDIA Rounding Top: Bearish Swings Q1 2025TA Nvidia demonstrated strong growth throughout 2024. However, this year, it has shown rather a poor performance. When an uptrend started to weaken, it gave off subtle signals before a full reversal happened on the horizon. One of the first clues is that the highs collectively begin to appear curved compared with initial rough growth. This reflects the loss of aggressive bullish intent, showing hesitation and vulnerability to a reversal. The price still makes higher highs, but the incremental gain between each peak shrinks. This declining magnitude in price advancement suggests that buyers are gradually losing strength with each move. These shallow bullish waves often get sold into quickly, showing early distribution behavior. Simultaneously, it takes longer time for price to reach each successive high . When higher highs occur at reduced frequency, the rally phases become stretched out. This indicates buyers are struggling, and sellers are gaining time-based control. Extended Rounding Top Pattern Price crosses above the rounding top Indicates a failed reversal and potential bullish breakout. Suggests renewed buying strength and possible trend continuation. I'd recommend using confirmation tools like volume spikes and momentum indicators which are essential to validate the breakout. Price reaches the rounding top and stalls or reverses Confirms the bearish reversal signal of the pattern. Acts as a strong resistance zone, often leading to a downtrend. Alongside with fibs, it can be used as a cue to take profits, exit long trades, or enter short positions. FUNDAMENTALS Catalysts of Bearish Swings A transition phase characterized by a series of sharp bearish swings, marked by a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, shaping a well-defined downward channel. Drop #1: ATH → Higher Low (Early January 2025) After Nvidia’s euphoric 2024 AI hype rally, it was a matter of time as some institutional Investors locked in profits, causing initial drop. Valuation metrics (P/E; P/S) reached extremes creating grounds for a correction. The Fed’s January meeting hinted at fewer rate cuts than the market expected. Rising Treasury yields pressured tech stocks. The U.S. government has imposed strict export controls on advanced semiconductors, AI chips and related technology to China. Drop #2: Lower High → Lower Low (Late January to February 2025) While Nvidia beat Q4 earnings expectations, its forward guidance disappointed. Management cited softening data center orders and consumer GPU inventory corrections. Concerns about potential erosion in gross margins due to increasing costs and competitive pricing pressure from AMD and Intel. AI infrastructure spending was plateauing faster than expected, leading to re-ratings across the sector. Drop #3: Second Lower High → Second Lower Low (Mid to Late February through Early March 2025) Several investment banks downgraded semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, amid fears of a cyclical slowdown and oversupply risks in H2 2025. In early March, broader indices dropped due to hot inflation prints in February. Fed’s stance during testimony to Congress indicated a higher interest rate outlook. Reports emerged about delays in next-gen chip production due to yield issues at TSMC and logistics constraints, fueling investor anxiety. Renewed export control tightening and U.S.-China friction were again cited as major concerns earlier this year. These concerns were part of the bearish narrative during Nvidia’s downward structure, especially during Drop #1 and Drop #2 where investors began pricing in geopolitical and regulatory headwinds. Events & Economic catalysts to monitor (before buying heavy): Nvidia Earnings Q1 2025 Mid to Late May 2025 Why it matters: Forward guidance, Data Center/AI segment growth, margin updates, and China sales commentary will heavily impact sentiment and trend direction. U.S. CPI (Inflation) Reports April 10, 2025 (March CPI) Remember: Hot inflation = higher rate expectations → tech sector sell-off. Watch for YoY core CPI trends. U.S. Jobs Report (NFP) April 4, 2025 Keep in mind: Strong labor = sticky inflation = Fed hawkishness → higher discount rates on growth stocks. Semiconductor Industry Conferences ・NVIDIA GTC (GPU Technology Conference) – usually held Spring or Fall ・Semicon West 2025 – typically July Track the progress: Product launches, AI roadmaps, new partnerships, and forward tech strategy updates often revealed.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by fract
2
What factors could drive Bitcoin(BTC/USD) to reach the $68KGiven the current market conditions, Bitcoin has not managed to establish a new high in its recent upward movement. Various factors, including uncertainty regarding upcoming economic changes, reduced liquidity, the focus of financial institutions on the decline of stock markets, and the market's inability to react to sudden shifts, have contributed to the lack of a clear directional trend. However, based on the presented analysis and chart review, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will reach the level of $68,000 in the coming weeks, paving the way for the initiation of a strong bullish trend. This upward movement is expected to first drive Bitcoin's price to approximately $130,000, and after a brief correction, the upward momentum may continue, potentially pushing the price to levels as high as $179,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Esfahan
GLD/SPX as a risk-off signal for BTC/SPXFor all the "Bitcoin will follow gold" crowd... This chart tells a very different story. Every time we’ve seen GLD/SPX rally sharply, BTC/SPX has underperformed for months afterward. 📉 See the shaded red zones – they highlight periods when: GLD/SPX (gold line) made strong relative moves, BTC/SPX (aqua line) lagged or outright dropped. We're in another one of those zones right now. Unless you’ve got a strong reason why "this time is different," the base case is clear: BTC/SPX likely underperforms for another 3–6 months. If you're positioning long BTC expecting it to mimic gold's run, be aware — that hasn't played out well historically. 🧭 Trade Idea: Patience: Don't rush the BTC long. Let the GLD/SPX spike play out. Timeframe: Revisit BTC/SPX for potential re-entry mid-to-late 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by hansolar21
Bitcoin - 2025After a long consolidation around $100,000, and a correction of ~32% from the top, it seems we are preparing for a new move. In the previous idea, I mentioned that there could be either consolidation or a healthy correction, but both happened. I will describe several scenarios that I see. I will describe only positive, super-positive and ultra-positive ones. Since the negative sounds like this - we have already reached the peak, there will be a small over-high, and we will go bearish. Positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $150,000-$200,000 Super-positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $200,000-$300,000 Ultra-positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $300,000-$400,000 Now you must ask - can we really reach $400,000, how is this possible, with the current price of $84,000, and April outside the window? I will tell you that there is nothing complicated or incredible here, that is why it is ultra-positive. But you should focus only on positive and negative scenarios, and not float in the clouds hoping for a miracle. As for altcoins, in this scenario, I don't think Bitcoin dominance will last long, so high, in any case, soon there will either be an overflow and altcoins will start shooting, or we will all die from the paws of bears HOLD YOUR BEARS, IT'S NOT OVER
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by just5
1
Bitcoin Dominance Ascending Channel and Altseason (1W Log)CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been in a clean uptrend inside an ascending channel for over 2 years. • The midline has consistently acted as a magnet, but BTC.D has recently detached from it and might be headed for another retest of the upper boundary. • Unless major macro catalysts intervene, I expect no notable changes until the 72-73% key area, the same zone that triggered 2021's altseason. Regarding altseason, this cycle isn't like previous ones. With millions of tokens today, dilution is real, and a full-blown altseason where everything pumps seems unlikely. Instead, I expect selective rotation into quality projects, and that might actually make it easier to find real outperformance.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by AliferCrypto
4
SUPER/USDT Technical Breakdown – Historical Cycle Repeating?🟢 Current Price: $0.5645 📊 Historical Moves (from chart): 🔹 Cycle 1: 🔹 Entry: ~$0.475 🔹 Peak: $1.5192 🔹 % Gain: +236.92% 🔹 Duration: 97 days 🔹 Cycle 2: 🔹 Entry: ~$0.387 🔹 Peak: $2.2603 🔹 % Gain: +361.63% 🔹 Duration: 133 days 🔹 Projected Cycle 3: 🔹 Entry: ~$0.5648 🔹 Peak: $1.6985 - $2.2667 🔹 % Gain: +267.04% 🔹 Duration: 102 days 🔹 Forecasted Move (Based on Pattern Repeat): 🔹 Projection: From current base (~$0.5031) → Target Range: $1.5332–$2.2666 🔹 Potential Max Gain: ~+386.94% (historical highest pattern) 🎯 Target Zones: 🎯 Target Price Level From $0.5645 Approx. ROI Target 1 $0.8632 Resistance & fib zone +53% Target 2 $1.2535 Previous rejection point +122% Target 3 $1.5244 Historical fib resistance +170% Final Stretch $2.2666 Last bull cycle top +301% 🟨 Suggested Entry Zone: Between $0.50 – $0.56 Matches historical bottoms from each prior cycle Strong support with triple bottom structure 🛑 Stop Loss Consideration: Below $0.5031 support line Break of structure would invalidate current cycle repeat 🧠 Strategy: ✅ Accumulate slowly within support range 🧾 Set sell targets at fib zones or previous tops 🔍 Monitor for breakout volume or EMA crossovers Disclaimer...a portion of this was generated using AI to help me clearly get my idea across.
Long
by ictc3d