SOL LONG - CYCLE LEADERI have been shouting out about CRYPTOCAP:SOL on here since we hit $8.
This is the TOP crypto coin this cycle
EVERYTHING is happening on CRYPTOCAP:SOL
This is an EASY LONG.
NFA GL HF.
-@CryptoCurb
Economic Cycles
Elliott Wave View Calling for S&P 500 (SPX) to Extend HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 (SPX) suggests rally from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as an impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5651.6 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 5402.6. Index then extended higher in wave 3 towards 5878.4 as 45 minutes chart below shows. Wave 4 pullback unfolded as a Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 5821.17 and rally in wave (b) ended at 5863.04. Wave (c) lower ended at 5762.4 which completed wave ((a)) in higher degree.
Bounce in wave ((b)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Up from wave ((a)), wave (a) ended at 5817.8 and wave (b) ended at 5784.92. Wave (c) higher ended at 5862.8 which completed wave ((b)) in higher degree. Index resumed lower in wave ((c)). Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 5802.17 and wave (ii) ended at 5850.94. Wave (iii) lower ended at 5702.8 and wave (iv) ended at 5772.5. Final leg wave (v) ended at 5696.06 which completed wave ((c)) of 4. The Index has turned higher in wave 5. Near term, as far as pivot at 5696.09 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher.
2020 Election compared to 2024 electionNo matter the US election result today, I believe Bitcoin will head higher in the long term. Bars pattern overlaying from today forward is showing the 2020 election to cycle top. Let's see how similar they play out.
Long $TSLAI am getting 100% of my exposure currently through NASDAQ:TSLL , I am very bullish on this setup for Tesla.
Bull catalysts:
Trump Victory - if this happens, I assume TSLA will pump just because of their close relationship
Federal EV Charging Re-compete - in the vein above, I don't see why Trump wouldn't open the failed federal funds of ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B to companies to recompute the contract- obviously Tesla could actually deliver the network of chargers more efficiently than GM et al.
QE - I overlaid the FFR on the bottom of this chart, since I think it is valuable information regarding the last time TSLA's face-melting rally began, it coincided with QE beginning.
Their humanoid robots also could be something, but I am not as versed with them. Any other catalysts I'm missing?
AVAX vs BTC | ALTCOINS | Life Changing IF This Pattern Plays OutFractals have been used for years as possible suggestions to map how money moves in the financial market.
This is what gives them significance; they draw out a sort of map. The hard part about fractals though, is that they often appear cross markets and it is no easy feat to spot similarities on large scale. However, to the seasoned eye, fractal-spotting becomes easier over time.
There is a misconception that fractals can only be used in the same timeframe. This is simply because, as with Bitcoin, there is a large history of candles (data) that plays out in an elaborate pattern. Daily candlestick patterns become lost in weekly patterns, even though the general direction / macro is the same.
In the case for AVAX, a similar pattern has been observed in BTC before the COVID pandemic - and it has been playout out perfectly, so far.
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
BINANCE:AVAXUSDT
BTC and the previous three US Election DatesThis charts the dates of the previous three US Elections (2012, 2016 and 2020) on a log chart, with price on the horizontal axis at daily candle close.
As you can see, once price breaks above (sometimes next day, as in 2020, sometimes a week or more later, as in 2016 and in 2012) price has never returned - ever.
Plotted are the time and percentage difference from election date to cycle ATH. On average it's 387 days apart.
If things play out this time in a similar fashion we can expect this week into mid next week to be the final time BTC will be in the mid 60k per coin - ever.
$BTC Has Another Bullish Weekly Close to Confirm New TrendCRYPTOCAP:BTC confirmed new bull market structure closing outside of the pennant 🐂
Should rip after Trump is announced POTUS and new round of rate cuts this week 🚀
BTC.D Keep calm, don't lose your headThe market will do what it always does—play with our emotions. We're all eagerly anticipating an altseason, right? But the market will test everyone’s patience, so it's wiser to stick with spot purchases and use DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) for entry. Don’t give up, and above all, don’t sell now—you’ve weathered a tough bear market.
Dominance is set to decline, just as it has in previous cycles within these Fibonacci parameters. Stay calm, keep your emotions in check, and remember: patience and strategy are key.
BTC Cycle UpdateWith BTC now in the window of a 60 day cycle low and election approaching that are my levels i am focused on for now. If now hold 68k i tend to 62/63k for now. Great place to position for all what is about to come. Real party probably in december.
If we get any sort of liquidation candle buy it.
Children Of The CornCorn Should go Up. exponential m.a. is popping. Wanted to do some Futures type here. This should be a decent, Steady gainer.
~Careful not to step on corn-flakes, you wouldn’t want to become a cereal-killer.
~The corn stalk decided to change careers. He went into a completely different field.
~Plain popcorn? I’m sorry, but you're going to have to do a lot butter than that.
This One should mint us some Green...
GOLD BUT OPPORTUNITYThe price has reached the bottom of the channel,
and has reached its breakeven
a great support point
To increase the percentage , entr with Signal Bar Key bar
Tp1: 2.800
Tp2: 2.820
PS : 2725 COMEX:GC1!
GOLD BUT OPPORTUNITYThe price has reached the bottom of the channel,
and has reached its breakeven
a great support area
To increase the percentage , entr with Signal Bar Key bar
Tp1: 2.800
Tp2: 2.820
PS : 2725
COMEX:GC1!
BTC Swing Points (Linear Scale) ISTRUCTURAL AWARENESS
This analysis seeks to provide structural insights by identifying key levels and understanding historical price patterns to anticipate the limits potential future scale of price movements.
Indicators in use:
I'd start with retrieving HH LH HL LL points by script I've designed based on Pivot Points to be as aware as possible of key levels of the historic structure:
Adding altered Zig Zag that shows only percentage change of the swings. This would be another layer of the historic pattern capture:
BOTTOMS:
Wave analysis from '22 - '24
Logarithmic Trendline: It looks like a curve on linear scale, which we will use to link the composite but significant lows and extend it to the right. This gives a sense of a low levels which we assume would be hard to break anytime soon because of the price is a range away:
Breaking below and staying under that level for more than a few bars would signal a bearish trend, depending on emerging patterns at smaller scales as price nears the curve.
Since a Double Top pattern could develop, an additional line curve aligned with the HL and passing through the next bottom (black dashed curve) is necessary. If price breaches the main curve’s orange dotted line, it may descend toward the secondary curve, a significant lower boundary derived from historical curvature. A break below this level would require an even stronger bearish effort to actually keep it below because of high volatility and existing frequency of reversals.
Adding short-term trendlines which would be easier to break (Red and dark orange dotted continuation of the lines)
TOPS:
To anticipate how high it can grow, we'll connect the extreme tops as well.
2021 ATH ➡︎ 2024 ATH
2021 TOPS
2017 ATH ➡︎ 2021 1st TOP
Price breaking above "2017 ATH ➡︎ 2021 1st TOP" is a sign to switch to log scale where identical distance resembles identical % change to capture a bigger scale move relative to the structure.
SMCI *Huge Update*I know my charts are not pretty and I look pretty stupid a lot of the times. BUT.
I noticed something very strange with the time cycle charting tool. I was measuring the tops and bottoms to find out that the bottoming process on SMCI is scheduled to happen just before NVDA earnings.
Meaning... if SMCI follows the cycle we will see a huge dump before the 22nd-23rd of May. Then, after all retail investors are shaken out and people fear the recession/earnings, it will rocket up to make one more all time high run :)
High chance of being wrong but I love to share my ideas with you all! Let me know what you see and lets talk about it.
"STLA" (Stellantis) Buy Opportunity at Strong SupportTicker: NYSE:STLA (Stellantis)
Long Entry: Near current support level
Target: All-Time High (ATH) , could be splitted
Stop-Loss: Just below current LOW
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:24
Analysis:
Stellantis (STLA) has pulled back to a strong historical support level, aligning with an old bullish trendline that has served as a base for previous upward movements. This confluence of technical factors indicates a solid area for potential long entries with limited downside.
The current setup offers an exceptional risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:24, as we're positioned near support with a clear path to the last higher high at the ATH level. As long as support holds, a move towards ATH is likely, fueled by a reactivation of the prior bullish momentum.
Key Notes:
Risk management is crucial: The close stop-loss limits downside exposure, and the target offers substantial reward potential.
Confirmation on support strength would reinforce the setup, adding confidence to the upside.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Bitcoin's Bull Run Now Has Price TargetsThis was a historic Two Month Close . For only the 6th time in Bitcoin's History we have a Green Star Candle on the MRI Indicator. All Prior Green Stars have lead to bull runs of at least 6 months and gained over 100%. All but one led to MRI Tops with the only one that failed to reach it's MRI Top (with Down Arrow) would have been a 2nd consecutive MRI Top, which would have been an unprecedented and unreasonably extended bull run.
We Also have a Cup and Handle Target of $105,000 based on the $45,000 dip in Q3 of 2022 & we have a similar target of $102,000 from the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension which has also been achieved quickly in all prior times of All time High Breaks coming out of a Bear Market.
* All 3 Targets mention above are between the $100,000 - $140,000 Range, which is VERY Conservative for 2025 as the 4 Year Halving Cycle enters its most Bullish Phase!
Thank You,
Tone Vays
NAS100 Daily outlook | Bias BullishI was looking for Nas100 characteristics around elections on a daily timeframe.
I found some similarities:
2016 Market Top (4906) was 34 bars before the E-day, it never came back to the same levels.
2020 Market Top (12467, 2.54x) was 44 bars before the E-day, it broke down these levels in Jun-Dec 2022.
2024 Market Top (20758, 1.665x) was 83 bars before the E-day.
Last Friday before the election seems important in both (16/20) cases as it became a major support for the next cycle.
IMO, Friday would be bearish but S1(19600), and S2(19290) seem like important levels for the uptrend to sustain, Friday should not go beyond S1.
With a bullish Bias, I would wait for Friday to close and then like to do either of the following:
Instant order on green candle close with stoploss on S2
Buy Stop on the market top break with SL under S1
Would love to know what you think.
A huge Cup with a handle on Bitcoin after 3 yearsFor those who understand the cycle, it's no surprise.
For those who are not there yet, this is a very strong pattern, and considering Bitcoin will move to new highs this is a powerful indication of the bullish continuation.
It took 1085 Days to do it! (3 years without 10 days).
The tip of the last bull run initiated it and if you don't know what that means, you should join my Discord, YouTube, and Substack.
Buckle up, fill your bags, and enjoy the last year of this bull run!
It's NFA and DYOR
UsdJpy- Will history repeat itself?As we approach the final months of the year, it’s worth noting the impact of JPY repatriation, which traditionally occurs when Japanese investors pull funds back to Japan, boosting yen demand. This trend often leads to an appreciation in the Japanese yen, affecting currency pairs like FX:USDJPY , as demand surges.
Historically, this phenomenon has triggered notable yen strength.
For example, last year saw USD/JPY fall by around 1,000 pips due to these repatriation flows. Assuming similar conditions prevail, we could anticipate another yen rally by this year's end.
Technical Overview of USD/JPY:
Currently, USD/JPY recently hit a high of around 154, moving into a key resistance area.
At the time of writing, the price hovers above the horizontal support level.
A decisive break below it could indicate a bearish “false break,” potentially signaling a larger downside move.
Should the downtrend persist, potential targets could be set at:
- Slightly under 150,
- Followed by further support at 147,
- And ultimately, a critical support at 141.
2025 BTC.D - History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often RhymesJust thinking through this idea in regards to BTC.D
In the last cycle BTC.D ramped up to consistently being above 60%, after its June 2020 lows, in the 4th week of October 2020. It ran up to 100% by the end of 2020 and then proceeded to roll over and fall back below 60% by the 3rd week of January 2021. Altseason started at the beginning of February 2021 with ETH & large cap projects. I'd like to think that Altseason officially ended by the end of May 2021 with a wild frenzy into memes (Doge, Shiba, Akita) setting new ATHs.
If we're applying that same logic to this cycle then... BTC.D. will begin its ascent towards 100% dominance by passing 60% by the end of October 2024 (as of today, it's October 30th) and then start to roll over the 2nd-ish to 3rd-ish week of January 2025, to start the New Year! From there we can estimate that Altseason will start sometime around the 1st-ish week to 2nd-ish week of February 2025. It will last until, I'm thinking, the end of April 2025 to middle-ish of May 2025 (at the latest).
Additional Thoughts:
We may get a blowoff top scenario by end of September 2025 / October 2025... but that's TBD. I'm not sure a double peak is guaranteed or in the cards this cycle. So, it may be wise to leave something in your bag headed into the end of year (Q3 / Q4), just so you can say mama we made it. IDK - just thoughts and not financial advice.
Resource & Thoughts
Consider the Path to Altseason by Secrets of Crypto
Would definitely have to consider macro, m2 & m3 and the US presidential election
POLKADOT COMPRESSION ABOUT TO EXPLODEHey traders!
It's been a while since my last post in here. Despite that, I've been trading and charting like I always did.
Anyways, this is why I think CRYPTOCAP:DOT is pumping on the next months:
- As the rest of #alts , Polkadot has been on a compression structure since the manipulation on August. In my opinion, we are talking about a accumulation that will lead the price to reach the local ATH (11.00 - 12.00 USD)
- Context is great. #Trump seems to be the winner of US elections next week.
Don't take me wrong, I'm not a fan of #DOT and I think its time passed by. However, I don't think its crazy to see the #token dancing around 20.00 - 30.00 USD on the upcoming months.
$TOTAL Market Cap 259 Day BREAKOUT!At last, the Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap has a BREAKOUT from the 259 Day trend!
This was the lagging chart I was watching to confirm the next leg up in the bull market.
The 20DMA has also crossed the 200DMA for the first time in 12 months. This is a SUPER bullish signal, as you can see what occurred last time in October 2023.
With less than 1 week away until Donald Trump is declared President of the United States, and the FOMC announcing another round of rate cuts the following day, we can expect a lot of volatility in the market.
The 20DMA should act as a good support on the way up.
The final signal will be when the Fed announces they will stop selling securities from their balance sheet. This will signal a new round of quantitative easing, and complete risk-on.
Tick-tock MFers. Position accordingly!
Bull Market Begins NowFor several years now, I've been tracking variations of this chart, and Bitcoin's adherence to its four-year cycle remains striking. Every bear market, people speculate that the cycle has been “broken,” yet Bitcoin consistently follows its historical trajectory, nearly to the day. This pattern isn’t directly impacted by external events but is subtly shaped by the U.S. macroeconomic landscape, which can either dampen or amplify its moves.
From each halving, we typically see about 154 days of consolidation before Bitcoin breaks the all-time high of the previous cycle. Technically, we did breach the previous high briefly due to ETF-driven news, though it was just a wick. Now, we’ve just tapped that previous all-time high again, but it’s possible we’ll need to cool off and consolidate until the election before we see another major move. During this time, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) tends to rise for another month, after which we often witness a significant rotation into altcoins as “old money” seeks higher volatility. With the upcoming election and the possibility of a Trump victory, there’s likely to be renewed enthusiasm and optimism for crypto markets.
