Get started

Economic Cycles

$BTC - Cuts might not mean moon, yetDec 2000, FFR -> 6.5%, they cut, Recession Declared in March/April 2001 July 2007, FFR -> 5.25%, they cut, Recession Declared in December 2007 July 2019, FFR -> 2.4%, they cut, Recession Declared in ~Feb 2020 Increased liquidity is often seen as a catalyst to CRYPTOCAP:BTC price action, but when you take a look historically, performance of the S&P following rate cut announcements has been lackluster in the immediate months following such cuts. This chart shows 2019, which obviously had the COVID wrench thrown into it, but will the September 2024 cuts follow the same pattern? If so, how decoupled will BTC's performance be from the S&P, if the S&P is falling in mid 2025? I have mixed feelings about the cuts impact. For a while I have felt like a 50bps cut this month would tank assets across the board since 50 (instead of 25) means the market is weaker than we've been led to believe. With or without 50bps leading to a flash crash in the near term, I suspect that in the next 2 quarters we should trend up across markets as a result of the increased liquidity. The real question will be about when the recession will be declared, and how brutal it will be ? WDYT?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by httpz
NVIDIA (NVDA): Our Next Move After Predicting the TopJust 14 days ago, we analyzed NVIDIA and concluded that we might see a small push upward followed by a pullback. We were correct, although the last small push didn't materialize. Still, we're pretty happy that we called the top on NVDA accurately, and perhaps some of you were able to capitalize on it. If so, that makes us even happier 😄 Since our last analysis, NVIDIA has fallen by 21%, bringing us into the area where we should be looking for long positions. We're about to do just that, even though it's risky. We're planning to enter a long position on NVIDIA, with our stop loss set below the end of Wave (4) for invalidation. We don't have a specific target set for NVDA, and we'll be monitoring it closely. Given the risk involved, we won't be over-leveraging here. Let's see if we can get it right again!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
BTC 1h upward rally updateMEXC:BTCUSDT Here's what SMC tell us: after a slight dipping to the DP.i (58550) point of interest (POI) then we ready to see a confirmation signal to buy the dip. that confirmation would be 1. SCOB: Single Candle OrderBlock 2. Lower Time Frame (5mins) ChoCh: (ChoCh: Change of Character) Without a confirmation entry, we are not allowed to execute buy position, and then we have to be patient for price to get to a lower important level, such as Minor High Liquidity Low (57220) or Minor Extreme POI (56025). I will update Bitcoin regularly.. Take Care
by x-Aurio
2
DOGE wait for breakThe Doge/USDT pair on the 1-hour chart has broken out from a symmetrical triangle, indicating a potential bullish trend 📈. Analysis: - Entry: Between 0.10558 and 0.10663 could be a good buy zone 🎯. - Take Profit (TP): Target is set at 0.11238 to 0.11242, a key resistance level. Watch for potential reaction at this level 🏁. - Stop Loss (SL): Placed around 0.10267. If this level breaks, it's best to exit to avoid further losses 🛑. Key Points: - Risk to Reward: The risk/reward ratio is favorable, offering a solid profit potential 💼. - Continued Move: If the price breaks above 0.10798 and holds, the probability of reaching the target increases 📊. Signal: - Buy (Long) between 0.10558 with a target of 0.11238 and a stop loss at 0.10267 🚀.
Long
by ahmadarz
3
DERO is extremely undervalued.DERO a homomorphic encrypted blockchain with secure and private smart contracts is truly one of it's kind. With a fast 18 second block time, being a layer 1 private decentralized application platform with instant syncing and fast transactions DERO is extremely undervalued. The blockchain is relatively new and is in it's alpha stage which means there will be lots of future development coming. Recently TELA is launched, TELA enables the secure and decentralized storage of application files on DERO's blockchain using smart contracts. This makes the DERO protocol capable of hosting true WEB3.0 decentralized webApps. Welcome to the future!
Long
by LisboaGrande
Bitcoin FULL Analysis PART 2In a previous analysis, I discussed the relationship between Bitcoin, the Altcoin market and Bitcoin Dominance. An important rotation exists between these three; and by using TOTAL3 together with BTC.D, you can get a clearer picture of where BTC is trading in the current cycle. In this video, I make an important suggestion based off Elliot Wave Theory. This theory is backed up by the points mentioned but also by the Logarithmic view: From the log scale, we can see BTC is still trading relatively low compared to previous cycle top-outs. So the question remains - the end... or just the beginning? ________________________________________ COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by CryptoCheck-
1
Yield Curve Reversion Trade 2024The yield curve reversion is when the US10Y Treasury Yield becomes greater than the US2Y Treasury Yield and has a track record for signalling recession. I've been tracking the reversion for the past two years for any hint of sense of whether the US FED would cut FEDFUNDS rates or if bond traders would drive yields/prices towards reversion. This time, the fed's narrative is driving the reaction here. To express this idea I've put on long CBOT_MINI:10Y1! and short CBOT_MINI:2YY1! via the futures market. I'll keep rolling the futures contracts until the yield curve starts to form a top, likely a spread value between 1.5-3.0.
FRED:T10Y2YLong
by pb0316