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Economic Cycles

Bitcoin / #Russell2000 📝The index of small companies is known for being highly dependent on bank financing. Therefore, of course, he is the main beneficiary of cheaper money after the rate cut. 👀What we see about correlations, CRYPTOCAP:BTC bull markets, coincide with the movement of this index as you can see, in the green zone on the Spearman indicator, 💡We can also see that Russell 2000 is far from its ATH, which is also a bullish sign, because small companies in the stock market grow quite predictably with GDP growth and increased liquidity, and in the current state is far from overheated.
BNC:BLXLong
by FeelsStrategy
DOGECOIN 2024 — A Massive Breakout Coming?Hello, fellow traders! I'm excited to share an intriguing analysis with you today. Let's explore how Dogecoin DOGEUSD might be following in the footsteps of Stellar's XLMBTC remarkable 2017 bear market and 2018 bull run. By comparing historical charts of Stellar with the current movements of Dogecoin, we could uncover patterns suggesting a significant breakout for DOGE this year and into the next. This insight might help you spot potential trading opportunities in the market. Stellar's 2017 Journey On the top chart, we have Stellar XLMBTC chart from 2017 and 2018: All-Time High (ATH) of 2017: Stellar reached its ATH, followed by a period of declining lower highs during the summer months. Accumulation Phase: Mid-autumn brought an accumulation zone, indicating consolidation before the next big move. Wedge Pattern Formation: A wedge pattern emerged, leading to increased bullish momentum. Breakout to New Highs: Post-wedge, Stellar entered a phase of higher highs, establishing a new ATH at the beginning of 2018. Dogecoin's Current Path Now, let's examine Dogecoin DOGEUSDT on the 3-day timeframe: ATH in May 2021: DOGE hit its ATH and then began a decline into a lower highs zone. Accumulation Zone Since Mid-2023: Like Stellar, DOGE was in an accumulation phase that lasted until 2024. Wedge Pattern Development: In 2024, DOGE formed a wedge pattern, with the price currently residing within this formation. Moving Averages Alignment: Interestingly, the moving averages on both charts behave almost identically, reinforcing the pattern similarity. What This Could Mean The parallels between DOGE and XLM suggest that Dogecoin might be bottoming out and could be on the verge of a significant breakout. While history doesn't always repeat itself, these patterns are worth paying attention to. What are your thoughts on this comparison? Do you think Dogecoin is set to follow Stellar's past performance? Share your insights or any questions you have in the comments below — I’d love to hear your perspective! Remember, the crypto market can be unpredictable. It's essential to protect your capital and manage risks appropriately. A fundamental risk management strategy is to use no more than 1% of your capital per trade. If you found this analysis helpful, please like this post and follow me for more cryptocurrency insights. Stay tuned for more updates!
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by ArShevelev
1
High Beta Bear | HIBS | Long at $22.00 (September Only)Historically, September is one of the worst performing months in the stock market. A hedge against my bets for this month is to buy shares of Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X AMEX:HIBS as a volatility play. The index provider selects 100 securities from the S&P 500 Index that have exhibited the highest sensitivity to market movements, or “beta,” over the past 12 months based on the securities’ daily price changes. This isn't "buy and hold" play, whatsoever - you'll loose. It's a short duration hedge using seasonality odds that *may* be in my favor (i.e., September sucks) Target #1 = $24.85 Target #2 = $26.00 Target #3 = $28.00+ A stop exists below $20.00.
AMEX:HIBSLong
by WorthlessViews
Return of Volatility IndexesIt's September 18 2024 10:51pm EST, just another Wednesday. Elections are creeping up and Chinese (HSI) markets are sparking uptrend. Somehow, American volatility indexes are evidently setting up for what appears to be a big return to the upside. Perhaps only a rare few have captured it? Who knows, but the cycles don't lie and neither do the high timeframe supercycles, which imply a reversal is overdue for the volatility indexes, including UVXY (ETF), VXX(ETN), and VIX and their corresponding denominations, just to name a few. In any event, it would be fair to say that after today's close and going forward, these volatility indexes are ready for takeoff. The catalysts are not exactly clear, though. Election alone can't spark them, and if Covid triggered the last significant run, what's next? This, only time will tell, but the 'vola' indexes are nonetheless ready for takeoff.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by JuanLagos94
1
Rate Cut Incoming. Buckle Up"What the Yield Curve and Fed Moves Mean for Your Next Trade." Historically, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate while the yield spread is negative (also known as an inverted yield curve), it has often been an indicator of an impending market correction or recession. Let’s break this down: Historically, the bond market is a key indicator. Typically, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds; This a healthy sign. When that flips and short-term yields surpass long-term ones, we get what’s called an inverted yield curve. This inversion signals that investors are getting nervous about the near-term economy. When the Fed then steps in to lower rates, they’re trying to stimulate growth, but it often comes too late. Looking back at past events: The dot-com crash of 2000: The yield curve inverted, the Fed cut rates, and a 35% market correction followed. The 2008 financial crisis: Again, the yield curve inverted, rates were cut, and the market saw a major downturn exceeding 50%. Going back even further, the same pattern held in the 1970s and 1980s. The big questions are: Why does this combination signal trouble? Will this pattern repeat itself again? While history tends to repeat itself, the data shows that when the Fed cuts rates with a negative yield spread, market corrections often follow. The inverted curve suggests tighter credit conditions, reduced lending, and lack of confidence, all piling on top of one another creating a recipe for disaster. Stepping back even further, we see that investor sentiment and the bond market tend to lead the way. Credit tightens, and companies cut back on spending. Another a perfect recipe for an economic slowdown and market drop. It's a familiar cycle. So lets buckle up.
TVC:DJIShort
by oh92
1
Elliott Wave View on Nasdaq (NQ) Calling the Next Bullish Leg upShort term Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ) shows that rally from 8.5.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 20025.25. Pullback in wave (2) ended at 18338.45 with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave W ended at 19140.25 and wave X ended at 19693.50. Wave Y lower unfolded as another double three in lesser degree. Down from wave X, wave ((w)) ended at 18825.75 and wave ((x)) ended at 19150.50. Wave ((y)) lower ended at 18338.45 which completed wave Y of (2) in higher degree. The Index has turned higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 18927.5 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 18547. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 19813.50 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 19529. Near term, expect Index to extend higher to end wave ((v)) and this should complete wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 9.7.2024 low in 3, 7, 11 swing before it resumes higher.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades