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Economic Cycles

EUR USD - the battle of parityG'day traders, Welcome back to a new trading year. First up, i'll be taking a look at the EURO/USD as it is still in a strong downward to the right pattern respecting the strong curve of the weekly trendline. Please see below the Daily and weekly charts marked up. Follow along the video and hope it assists with your trading. I'll be looking for sells upon daily closes, weekly set and forget supply limits. Demand limits. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Previous charts Daily Chart Weekly Chart Updated in line with the video: Daily Weekly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. LVPA MMXXV
Short
by LupaCapital
Litecoin Breakout: Potential Gains and ProfitsAlright, let’s talk about Litecoin and why I think it’s gearing up for something big. The market's been showing solid gains across the altcoin sector , and Litecoin is definitely catching my eye right now. Here’s the deal: the LTCBTC pair looks like it’s finally bottomed out and is breaking out of a two-year downtrend line . If that sounds familiar, it’s because we’ve seen this before. Back in 2017 , Litecoin broke out of a similar downtrend, and the result? LTCUSD skyrocketed from $8 to $365 in just a year . Fast forward to today — 2023 and 2024 have been all about consolidation in the $100–$47 range . Now that we’ve broken through $135 , 2025 could be a massive year for Litecoin. My main target is $365 , but I’ve got my eye on some optional targets at $630 and even $1,300 . Why those higher targets? Simple. Looking at how the LTCBTC pair has performed in the past, even a small upward move there has historically triggered huge gains in LTCUSDT . Now, let’s break it down further. Litecoin’s price history shows recurring patterns — ascending triangles from 2015 to 2017 and now again from 2018 to 2025 . And these patterns play out in phases: 🔴 Downtrend 🟡 Consolidation 🟢 Breakout We’ve already seen this cycle happen three times — 2014 to 2018 , 2018 to 2021 , and now 2021 to 2025 . It’s all lining up again. The key now is to watch the details . Resistance levels, price action , and how the breakout unfolds will be crucial. If Litecoin follows through, it could be gearing up for a move that redefines its place in the market . Stay tuned — this could get really exciting.🍻 Some of past LTC charts:
CRYPTO:LTCUSD
by ArShevelev
7
Is Bitcoin Heading for $5M? An Analysis Using Fibonacci ChannelsThe report covers Bitcoin's price movements from its inception in 2012 to January 2025. By employing a logarithmic scale, percentage-based changes over time are emphasized, making it easier to identify growth trends and long-term movements. Fibonacci Channel The Fibonacci channel serves as the primary tool for identifying potential support and resistance levels. The parallel lines of the channel are spaced according to Fibonacci ratios and applied to price action to predict future movements. The report highlights that the current price ($101,419) is approaching the upper range of the channel. Price Targets The analysis proposes three speculative price targets for Bitcoin based on the Fibonacci channel: Conservative Target: $271,117 Moderate Target: $1,357,044 Aggressive Target: $5,045,505 These levels are plotted at the upper bounds of the Fibonacci channel, reflecting potential resistance zones in the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin. Bullish Long-Term Perspective The upward slope of the Fibonacci channel confirms the long-term bullish trend of Bitcoin. The fact that Bitcoin has maintained its position within this channel for over a decade strengthens its technical validity. The proximity of the current price to the channel's upper bound suggests potential volatility in the near term, with possibilities of either a breakout or a correction. Price Target Feasibility While the speculative targets indicate optimism, their exponential nature should be viewed with caution: Conservative Target: Plausible within a long-term context if Bitcoin's adoption and market dynamics sustain growth. Moderate and Aggressive Targets: These levels assume substantial market capitalization expansion, requiring significant adoption, institutional interest, and macroeconomic conditions conducive to growth. Critical Considerations Technical vs. Fundamental Factors The analysis is purely technical, overlooking fundamental elements such as: Adoption rates (e.g., Lightning Network growth, institutional investment). Regulatory developments (e.g., government interventions, taxation policies). Macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rates, economic stability). These factors could significantly influence Bitcoin's trajectory. Volatility and Risk Bitcoin's notorious volatility makes long-term projections uncertain. Historical data reveals frequent deviations from expected patterns, meaning Fibonacci-based targets might not materialize as anticipated. Logarithmic Scale and Weekly Timeframe The logarithmic scale provides a useful perspective for long-term percentage changes but may obscure short-term fluctuations. The weekly timeframe reinforces a macro view, but short-term traders may find limited actionable insights. Conclusion The report presents a compelling long-term bullish case for Bitcoin, using the Fibonacci channel to project speculative price targets. While the technical analysis is insightful, reliance solely on Fibonacci levels is risky in a highly volatile market like cryptocurrency. Investors should supplement this analysis with fundamental insights and remain cautious of speculative targets. This analysis underscores Bitcoin's potential for growth but also highlights the need for diversified strategies and vigilance in navigating the dynamic crypto market. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advisor. This analysis is purely for informational purposes and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading involves risk, and you should consult with a financial professional before making any decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SigmaSignals
THE LIQUIDITY PARADOX: Charting the Macro Environment for 2025WEN QE !? TL;DR there will be NO Quantitative Easing this cycle. YES the markets will still go to Valhalla. LIQUIDITY DRIVES MARKETS HIGHER. FULL STOP. Global M2 has a highly correlated inverse relationship with the US Dollar and 10Y Yield. Hence why we have been seeing the DXY and 10YY go up while Global M2 goes down. THE SETUP We are in a similar setup to 2017 when Trump took office. M2 found a bottom and ramped up, which toppled the DXY. Inflation nearly got cut in half until July 2017, where it then slowly started to creep back up as M2 and markets exploded. To much surprise, all this occurred while the Fed continued to RAISE INTEREST RATES. This was in part due to policy normalization with a growing economy coming out of the financial crisis and having near 0% interest rates for so long. In Q4 2014, the Fed paused QT, keeping its balance sheet near neutral for the next 3 years. As inflation started rising, QT was once again enacted, but very strategically with a slow roll-off in Q4 2017. This allowed markets to push further into 2018. THE PLAYBOOK M2 Global Money Supply: Higher Dollar: Lower Fed Funds Rates: Lower 10YY: Lower Fed Balance Sheet: Neutral Inflation: Neutral TOOLS Tariffs Deregulation Tax Cuts Tax Reform T-Bills HOW COULD WE POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE DOLLAR? Trump has been screaming from the mountain tops; TARIFFS. Tariffs will slow imports and focus more on exports to weaken the dollar. The strong jobs data that has been spooking markets and strengthening the DXY will be revised to show it’s much worse than numbers are showing. The Fed will pause QT, saying it has ample reserves, but not enable QE. At the same time, they could pause interest rate cuts to keep a leash on markets and not kickstart inflation. Then once all the jobs data is revised and markets get spooked at a softened economy (Q2), they will continue cutting. WHY DOES THE FED KEEP CUTTING RATES EVEN WITH A STRONG ECONOMY? In short, the Fed has to cut interest rates for the US to manage its debt. THE US government is GETTEX:36T in debt. In 2025, interest projections are well above $1T. That would put the debt on par with the highest line items in the national budget such as social security, healthcare and national defense. The Treasury manages its debt by issuing securities with various maturities. When rates are low, they can refinance or issue new debt. As rates rise, the cost of servicing debt increases, and vice versa. It’s one of the underlying reasons why the Fed cut (but no one will say it out loud)… hence why everyone is so confused and screaming that they cut too early and the bond vigilantes have been revolting. HOW DOES THE MONEY SUPPLY GO UP IF NO QUANTITATIVE EASING? We’ve seen this before. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have been telling you their playbook. In 2017, deregulation and tax cuts led to an increase in disposable income from individuals and corporations. Banks created more money in the markets through lending based on increased economic activity. Global liquidity increased in other major central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and PCOB who were still engaged in QE, and / or maintained very low interest rates, which created more liquidity in the US money supply. We’re seeing the same thing now with Central Banks around the world. The tax reform allowed for the repatriation of overseas profits at a lower tax rate, which brought a significant amount of cash back to the US. Like 2017, the US Treasury will increase short-term bill issuance (T-Bills), providing an alternative to the Reverse Repo (RRP), which reduces RRP usage. This provides liquidity to the markets because once the T-bills mature, funds can use the proceeds to invest in other assets, including stocks. Banks will buy T-bills and sell in the secondary market or hold til maturity, where they can then lend the cash or invest in equities. Another strategy to inject cash into the banking system would be standard Repo Operations. Here the Fed buys securities from banks with an agreement to sell them back later. This would increase lending and liquidity. Hopefully now you can see why markets DON’T NEED QUANTITATIVE EASING ! That would for sure lead to rampant inflation (see 2021), and blow up the system all over again.
TVC:DXYLong
by jonnieking
Why the great depression will be a walk in the park in compareImagine a world where these mounting losses ripple through the banking system. Depositors begin to lose confidence, causing a tidal wave of withdrawals. Banks, scrambling to meet liquidity demands, are forced to sell these securities at a steep discount, further compounding their losses. This feedback loop is the financial equivalent of lighting a match in a fireworks factory. For society, the consequences could be seismic: 1. Economic Turmoil: Banks are the lifeblood of credit and investment. When their balance sheets implode, lending grinds to a halt, smothering businesses and consumers alike. Small businesses, the backbone of the economy, face closures, while unemployment surges. 2. Housing Market Collapse: Mortgages are bundled into securities. The fallout in unrealized losses could spill into the housing market, as banks tighten credit, driving homeownership out of reach for many and forcing others into foreclosure. 3. Pension and Retirement Pain: Many pensions are tied to the financial markets. As losses deepen, retirees could see their savings dwindle, leading to widespread financial insecurity among the elderly. 4. Social Unrest: Economic hardship has historically been a catalyst for societal unrest. As livelihoods are threatened, the already fraying social fabric could snap, leading to protests, polarization, and even political instability. In short, this chart isn’t just a picture of accounting nightmares—it’s a warning siren for a potential societal earthquake. And the clock is ticking.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Iam_Phasma
Case for a $2,000,000 BTC in 2025This is extremely optimistic and hyper-bullish, but I wanted to publish this idea for posterity. So far, the current bull market cycle is following the 2015-2017 cycle very very closely. I think it's something like 95% correlated. We've experienced about a 500% increase from bear market lows just like we did in 2015-2016, and then in 2017 we experienced about a 20x from there. Given a Trump presidency, and the pro-crypto stance, and the fact that nations and states are proposing or actually buying BTC for reserves, I think FOMO in 2017 is going to make the price skyrocket. Is another 20x possible? If this cycle continues to correlate the same way it has been, that's exactly what we'll see. Will it happen? Time will tell.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Metal76
1
The market's energy is fueling a new wave of growth!Yesterday was a significant moment for the crypto market. 🌐 We received clear confirmation of the emergence of a new wave of growth. The upward flow of energy confirmed the intention of buyers, and the result of the day consolidated the volumes and showed the readiness to move to new heights. 📈 🎯 Key levels of support and resumption of growth: - 3525 is the level where a local suspension of movement is possible to accumulate energy. - 3443 is a zone that can become a key support and a starting point for the resumption of upward movement. 🔍 Chart analysis: On the daily timeframe, we can see how the price is organically forming a base for continued growth. Yesterday brought progress with a clear buyer's volume, which supports the upward trend. The energy flow is now focused on forming new support points for further upward movement. 🔥 ⚡️ What to expect next? A new wave of growth is already gaining strength, and the buyer is showing stability in intentions. Keep an eye on the situation and the price reaction at key levels. Be prepared for further opportunities that the market opens up! 🌟
Long
by WVitalievich
BTC | FRACTAL | Fractal that leads to new ETH ATHBitcoin has been trading stable around 95K, a good indication that the bull run still has some more cards to play for altcoins. Ethereum, Doge and SOL for example have not yet made new all time high's, indicating that the bullish cycle is far from over. There's a saying that leads something like "it's not over until someone sings" - well, in this case, the bullish cycle is not over until Ethereum makes a new ATH. ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
1
BTC performance in this cycle 243k topHere its a fibonacci logaritmic scenario which bitcoin will perfprm, the resistances are clear, 100k-153k-203k-243k respectively BTC will not go much further than 243k if history repeats itself and follow the sequence, we also must notice that this bullrun is diferent, we usually see big uptrend movements to resistances and then a lateralization on those levels, this happens due to institutional governance in the market and they follow the Fibonacci retracements, so as soon as we get to 150k there must be a 20-30% max correction, also with 200k that there it can be more heavy up to 50% correction but no guaranteed, and then finally the max level of 240k as soon as we get to that point its a 100% win to put a short x2 or short x3 of btc and see all burn March 20 150k reached may 200k reached big falldown september 243k , short asap
Long
by Phibonesratsen
WILL GOLD'S H4 WEAKNESS LEAD TO MORE PRICE DECLINE?Gold is showing weakness on the H4 timeframe with a heavy price fall below a swing low in yesterday's trading. The metal's price is now rising toward a previously created resistance level. Will there be a price rejection at the resistance level, or will the price zoom past it to create another swing high? N.B! - XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #gold #xauusd
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BullBearMkt