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Economic Cycles

Bitcoin's Market Cycles — Are We Nearing the Top?Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment and the signs are everywhere. After more than 900 days of steady bull market growth, BTC now flirts with all-time highs (ATH) while momentum stalls, liquidity thins, and emotions run hot. You might be asking: Are we nearing the cycle top? Is now the time to de-risk or double down? What comes next? This isn’t just a question of price. It’s about timing, structure, and psychology. In this analysis, we’ll break down Bitcoin’s historical cycles, the current macro structure, the hidden signals from Fibonacci time extensions, and how to think like a professional when the crowd is chasing FOMO. Let’s dive in. 📚 Educational Insight: Understanding Bitcoin Cycles Bitcoin doesn’t move in straight lines, it moves in cycles. Bull markets grow slowly, then explode. Bear markets fall fast, then grind sideways. These rhythms are driven by halving events, liquidity expansions, and most importantly: human emotion. Here’s what history tells us: Historical Bull Markets: 2009–2011: 540 days (+5,189,598%) 2011–2013: 743 days (+62,086%) 2015–2017: 852 days (+12,125%) 2018–2021: 1061 days (+2,108%) 2022–Present: 917 days so far (+623%) Bear Market Durations: 2011: 164 days (-93.73%) 2013–2015: 627 days (-86.96%) 2017–2018: 362 days (-84.22%) 2021–2022: 376 days (-77.57%) 💡 What does this tell us? Bull markets are growing longer, while bear markets have remained consistently brutal. The current cycle has already surpassed the average bull run length of 885 days (cycles #2–#4) and is quickly approaching the 957-day average of the two most recent cycles (#3 and #4). That makes this the second-longest bull market in Bitcoin’s history. ⏳ 1:1 Fibonacci Time Extension — The Hidden Timing Signal In time-based Fibonacci analysis, the 1.0 (1:1) extension means one simple thing: this cycle has now lasted the same amount of time as previous cycles — a perfect time symmetry. Here’s how I measured it: Average bull market length #2–#4(2011–2021): 885 days Average bull market length #3–#4(2015–2021): 957 days Today’s date: May 27, 2025 = Day 917 ✅ Result: We are well inside the time window where Bitcoin historically tops out. You don’t need to be a fortune teller to see that this is a zone of caution. Markets peak on euphoria, not logic and this timing confluence is a red flag worth watching. 🗓️ "Sell in May and Go Away" — Not Just a Meme One of the oldest market adages is showing its teeth again. Risk assets — including Bitcoin — tend to underperform in the summer months. Why? Lower liquidity Institutional rebalancing Exhaustion from prior run-ups Vacations and reduced trading volumes And here we are: Bitcoin is hovering near ATH It's been in an uptrend for 917 days We just entered the time-extension top zone Liquidity is thinning across the board You don’t need to panic. But you do need to think like a professional: secure profits, reduce exposure, and wait for structure. 😬 FOMO Is a Portfolio Killer This is where most traders make their worst decisions. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) isn’t just a meme — it’s the reason so many people buy tops and sell bottoms. Before entering any trade right now, ask yourself: Where were you at $20K? Did you have a plan? Or are you reacting to headlines? 📌 Clear mind > urgent clicks 📌 Patience > chasing green candles 📌 Strategy > emotion Let the herd FOMO in. You protect your capital. Will This Bear Market Be Different? Every past cycle saw BTC retrace between 77%–94%. That was then. But this time feels… different. Here’s why: Institutions are here — ETF flows, sovereign wealth funds, and major asset managers Regulation is clearer — and risk capital feels safer deploying in crypto Supply is tighter — much of BTC is now held off exchanges and in cold storage While a massive crash like -80% is less likely, that doesn’t mean a correction isn’t coming. Even a 30%–40% drop from here would wreak havoc on overleveraged traders. And that brings us to… 🚨 Altseason? Or Alt-bloodbath? Here’s the hard truth: If BTC corrects, altcoins will crash — not rally. Most altcoins have already seen strong rallies from their cycle lows. But if BTC drops 30%, many alts could tumble 50–80%. Altseason only happens when BTC cools off and ranges — not when it dumps. Don’t get caught holding the bag. Be tactical. Be disciplined. So Where’s the Next Big Level? You may be wondering: “If this is the top… where do we fall to?” Let’s just say there’s a very important Fibonacci confluence aligning with several other key indicators. I’ll reveal it in my next analysis, so stay tuned. 🧭 What Should You Do Right Now? (Not Financial Advice) ✅ Up big? — Take some profits ✅ On the sidelines? — Wait for real setups ✅ Emotional? — Unplug, reassess ✅ Are you new to Trading? — study, learn (how to day trade) and prepare for the next cycle The best trades come to the calm, not the impulsive. 💡 Final Words of Wisdom Bitcoin rewards discipline. It punishes emotion. Right now is not about catching the last 10% of upside — it’s about: Watching structure for potential trend change Measuring risk Avoiding overexposure Protecting what you’ve earned 📌 The edge isn’t in indicators. It’s in mindset. Stay prepared, stay sharp because in this market… 🔔 Remember: The market will always be there. Your capital won’t — unless you protect it. The next big opportunity doesn’t go to the loudest. It goes to the most ready. _________________________________ Thanks for reading and following along! 🙏 Now the big question remains: Is a bear market just lurking around the corner? What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments. I’d love to hear your perspective. _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by SiDec
14
DOGE can be worth many DOLLAR'SGrok, the AI supercomputer interface on Elon Musk’s X platform, predicts that Dogecoin might hit $10 between 2029 and 2040. While I remain hopeful, I believe that a more realistic target could be around 3-5 dollars by the end of this decade. This could potentially trigger a significant blowoff top, leading to an extended bear market for cryptocurrencies. When you examine this chart, it’s hard not to appreciate its beauty, comparable to Bitcoin, as it showcases a well-defined uptrend and follows cyclical rises and falls. This has resulted in Dogecoin creating numerous millionaires. The pressing question is whether those investors who currently hold 250,000 coins will become the next wave of millionaires in just a few years?
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by BallaJi
[ TimeLine ] Gold 19-20 May 2025Hello everyone, 📅 Today: Monday, May 19, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • May 19, 2025 (Monday) – Candle still forming at the time of this post • May 20, 2025 (Tuesday) 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes: ✅ Gold has experienced a sharp reversal of over 3,000 pips, dropping from 3435 to 3115 ⚠️ The Hi-Lo range on May 19 is approximately 400 pips — this is relatively wide, so consider waiting for the May 20 confirmation or focus on reversal entries using Fibonacci levels ✅ I will be trading both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy ⚠️ If you’re risk-averse or uncertain, it’s perfectly fine to skip the May 19 signal and instead observe the May 20 candle for a more informed setup 📋 Execution Plan: 🔹 Wait for the price range from the selected candles to fully form (marked by green lines on the chart) 🔹 Trigger entries upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer 🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), execute a cut-and-switch strategy, doubling the next valid entry size to recover 📉📈 Chart Reference: 🔗 TradingView URL Code: TV/x/vs1ieqLS/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
Just a Thought: What If the Big Bull Run Starts Next February?Chart: SOLUSDT Perpetual (1W) Let’s play devil’s advocate for a second… 📉 What if: The most recent pullback from Solana’s all-time high wasn’t just a dip to find support, but a high timeframe market structure break (MSS)? We wicked right into the Point of Control (POC) at $126, a critical level going back to Solana’s inception. Many saw that as a liquidity sweep, which it is, but what if that break was confirmation of a shift in the macro structure? Since then, we’ve seen a corrective rally, and as of now, price is approaching the golden pocket (0.618–0.65) around the $200 region coupled with time Fib confluence around June 25. ⚪ The ABC Hypothesis: There’s a clean potential for an (A)-(B)-(C) correction. If the market can’t push through the $200 resistance in June, we could see a dragged out move down into the 1:1 extension, which interestingly aligns with key monthly naked POCs (MNPOCs) at $73 and $41, and specifically the 1:1 at $49 (highlighted on the chart for September 25). That would create a textbook ABC correction, where: • A = drop from ATH to MSS • B = golden pocket retracement • C = 1:1 extension, sweeping long-term liquidity 📅 What if the real bull run doesn’t start until Feb 2026? Everyone’s calling for the big breakout this year… but what if we need one last washout to fully reset? That timing aligns eerily well with early Q1 2026, after a final leg down. Chart Legend: • ✅ Green line = current price • 🔴 POC = Point of Control (macro volume node) • ⚪ White lines = ABC structure • 🔵 Blue verticals = time-based Fibonacci • 🟡 Golden Pocket = 0.618–0.65 retracement • 🟣 MNPOC Levels = untested monthly points of control Just a theory. Not advice. DYOR. What do you think? Could the real reset be coming?
by turnandshoot
2
PEAQ — Fibonacci Meets Wyckoff Structure +100% SetupAfter more than 70 days of sideways action, PEAQ is finally showing signs of life — with a well-defined structure that suggests accumulation is giving way to a potential new trend. What we’re seeing aligns closely with a classic Wyckoff Accumulation pattern. A local bottom formed around the psychological $0.10 level, followed by a clean breakout — marking a potential Sign of Strength (SOS). Now comes the real opportunity. Wyckoff Accumulation Structure Following the long consolidation range: 🔹 Phase D: Breakout from range = Sign of Strength (SOS) 🔄 Current: Pullback = potential Last Point of Support (LPS) The recent correction has now retraced into the 0.786 Fib zone of the impulse wave — a deeper but still healthy retracement for Wyckoff structure. Notably, this level also coincides with the previous highs that PEAQ broke out from, now flipping into support. A perfect test of demand. 🔍 Confluence Zone Breakdown 0.786 Fibonacci retracement: ~$0.1312 Previous highs: ~$0.14 Monthly open: $0.1289 (ideal invalidation level) These overlapping signals create a tightly packed support zone that defines the next high-probability long setup. 🟢 Long Setup — 0.786 ($0.1312) Entry: $0.1312 Same stop-loss: $0.125 (below mOpen) Targets: $0.2589 and 1.618 Trend-Based Fib Extension target at $0.2694 R:R: ~16:1+ Potential upside: +100%+ 📘 Educational Insight: Wyckoff Meets Fibonacci This setup is a combination of Wyckoff theory and Fibonacci structure: SOS breakout signals strength LPS pullback into 0.786 Fib = high-probability continuation zone Previous highs now acting as support When structure, confluence, and psychology align — you don't chase. You wait. 📌 Summary ✅ 70+ days of accumulation ✅ SOS confirmed 🔁 Now retracing to LPS around $0.131 🔒 Monthly open provides clear invalidation 🎯 Targets: $0.2589 and $0.2694 💰 Potential R:R: 16:1+ Each chart is a lesson. Read it with patience, trade it with purpose. ___________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
Long
by SiDec
13
XLM Short Trade (Second Attempt) - Initiated on May 15, 2025 On May 12, 2025, our initial Stellar Lumens (XLM) short position was closed after a stop-loss trigger two days into the trade. Despite bullish market sentiment, primarily driven by the anticipated year-end launch of the Valour Stellar ETP, which is expected to attract significant institutional interest , we are confidently pursuing a contrarian, short-term bearish strategy by initiating a second short position on XLM. While Bitcoin’s rise to $104,018 as of May 16, 2025, reflects market strength CoinMarketCap - Bitcoin, we believe it is approaching cycle highs, potentially leading to a market pullback that could pressure altcoins like XLM. We anticipate a 28% price drop in XLM to $0.2128 from its current level of $0.2964, capturing liquidity at lower levels to fill orders. This decline is expected to set the stage for a subsequent upward move to absorb liquidity above and meet year-end demand at higher price levels, fueled by the Valour ETP launch and an anticipated bull run peak. Our bearish outlook is supported by an expected increase in USDT dominance (USDT.D), currently stable at 4.55% but poised for a potential rise, and a bearish technical signal from the four-day moving average crossing below the five-day moving average at 8:58 PM PDT on May 15, 2025, as observed on TradingView charts TradingView - XLMUSD.
Short
by JarlView
2
Advanced Auto Parts | AAP | Long at $64Advanced Auto Parts NYSE:AAP has gone through an exquisite shakeout of shareholders. Currently trading near $64, the stock is currently testing my "stock crash" simple moving average (seen green SMA lines). From a technical analysist standpoint, it's in a personal buy zone. This stock has tested this simple moving average level a few times in the past and recovered very well. Will history repeat? Target #1 = $88.00 Target #2 = $110.00
NYSE:AAPLong
by WorthlessViews
1
VIX | Nov 19, 2025 Call Options | Strike $21TVC:VIX , the great "fear" index, has two looming price gaps on the daily chart. Every gap has always been filled in the history of the $TVC:VIX. Given the 90-day tariff pauses and forever world turmoil, there will (undoubtedly), be a spike in the TVC:VIX to close these open gaps. It's just a matter of timing... I've chosen to go 6 months out on the option date (November 19, 2025) as a hedge to my portfolio ($3.45 per contract). I plan to add more contracts if the TVC:VIX dips into the 13-14 area, too. I truly dislike timing the market, but such a position could be a nice 3x gainer of the TVC:VIX spikes to $36 in short time. Or... totally worthless if we are in a constant bullish market for the next 6 months. Time will tell.
TVC:VIXLong
by WorthlessViews
BTC - Why THIS TIME is DIFFERENT (⊙ˍ⊙)This time IS DIFFERENT. Bitcoin has made a new ATH as I predicted in a few previous posts, but something's off...🤔 If we look at BTC from a macro view, the dates for this run up was quite extended. We do see some similarities in terms of the retracement (highlighted in blue) but from a timeframe analysis, there is no comparing this high to the previous: stretching from March to October where classical bear market symptoms were show - lower highs and lower lows, with a duration unlike any of the previous cycles. Interestingly, the previous season we increased not even 7% from the previous peak. And if we were to look at the same fractal, that places us around $116k. But the ONE thing, that has had me suspicious this entire time (🥁) was ETH. Overlaying the ETH chart, we see that historically, ETH peaked a week or two after the BTC ATH - until this time. The fact that BTC made such a dramatic ATH and Ethereum didn't? That was a new one. And even up to now, ETH is still 80% away only from it's previous ATH - imagine the altseason we will have IF ETH makes a new ATH... or will this time just be , different ?
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by Crypto-Check-
2
EurAud update.Good day traders, I’m back with yet another update on EurAud. In the description I will tag my previous setup on EurAud to show you where we are in price and I left the drawings as they were to help you understand price more. On Monday price opened with that same bullish flow and pushed till the low of the volume imbalance as expected but as we can see that FVG was able to hold price above. From the original setup what price did yesterday was expected Thursday or Friday the latest, so since price did not go for that 1st.PFVG on Monday and Tuesday, we can now expect price to go for that level. If we take a closer look at that leg higher from that FVG, we have a balanced price range that we can expect price not to respect.
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
Gold’s Multi-Decade Supercycle: $13,000 Is Not a Meme, It’s MathThis is not just a chart — it’s a map of the global financial psyche, spanning over 50 years of inflation, war, debt, and monetary decay. What you're seeing is the multi-decade logarithmic structure of gold, starting from under $40 in the early 1970s to projections reaching above $12,000 and even $13,000 in the coming decades. Each impulse, each correction, and each consolidation phase corresponds not only to technical patterns but to shocks in the global system: 📈 Key Historical Milestones: 1970s – Oil Crisis / End of Gold Standard → First explosion to $873 2001–2011 – War & Debt → From $254 to $1,900 2011–2018 – Lull Before the Storm 2020+ – Pandemic, ETF Adoption, Rate Chaos → New breakout in progress Now, price is respecting a decades-long logarithmic growth line, with clear projected fractals suggesting: 🎯 Projected Price Milestones (Based on Structure): Phase Target Current Range Completion ~$3,800–$4,300 Mid-Term Expansion ~$5,800–$7,700 Final Supercycle Top ~$12,600–$13,000 This chart doesn’t claim time precision — it outlines magnitude. And magnitude matters when trust in fiat is collapsing faster than central banks can lie. 🔥 The Real Message: Every dip in this chart was political calm. Every pump was systemic collapse. If you're waiting for gold to “correct,” maybe the world needs to break first. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. It’s a macro-technical exploration of long-term capital flow and systemic risk. Stay sharp. Stay solvent. Stay golden. 🪙 Trade safe and stay profitable.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by parm79
Aptos Long Term ViewAptos taken out almost all liquidation from below side, it can fall more towards 3.5$ to take out all new buyers and then push towards 15$, remember 15-16$ is an unmitigated zone, sooner or later this imbalance zone will be filled. So if your an investor and want easy 3x gain then buy apt from 5$ 2nd entry 4$ and last buying from 3.5$, ignore lower timeframe volatility and BTC movement, these entries are easily achievable if market crashes by any chance so you can close your position at breakeven. While 7.19-7.50$ area is crucial to break, once this zone is broken there is nothing upside that can stop Aptos from hitting 15$. Any daily candle closing above the marked zone will confirm trend shift, before this trade setup is like high risk n reward. While I'm very confident on Aptos that it will hit 15% mark.
Long
by mejazkhanm