XAUUSD Reversal?Yesterday Asia was bringing the price up until NY session dumped it.
Will wait for an aggressive move down today until London. Will also look for buyers if the move down is being accepted.
Economic Cycles
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles
Cycle Analysis:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes:
ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase)
Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2%
Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11%
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes:
ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase)
Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94%
Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93%
Projection for Cycle 4:
Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth:
Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000
(Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors)
Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200%
(Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains)
Projected Loss: Around 70-75%
(Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation)
Each cycle shows a pattern of:
Reduced percentage gains
Slightly improved loss recovery
Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price
ATH Calculation:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x
Observed Growth Multiplier Trend:
Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x
Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x
Projection Approach:
Lower Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative)
Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000
Upper Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic)
Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91
Gain Percentage Calculation:
Cycle 1: 52,287.39%
Cycle 2: 12,804.2%
Cycle 3: 1,976.94%
Observed Decline Pattern:
Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage
Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage
Projected Gain Range:
Lower bound: 600-800%
Upper bound: 1000-1200%
Loss Percentage Trend:
Cycle 1: 86.9%
Cycle 2: 83.11%
Cycle 3: 75.93%
Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement)
Methodology Notes:
Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers
Considered logarithmic growth pattern
Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles
Disclaimer:
Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
PSX : AVNTo predict the potential length of the third downtrend for Avanceon Ltd. (AVN), we can analyze the previous two downtrends and look for a pattern. Here’s a breakdown:
-First downtrend lasted 46 bars (69 days)
-Second downtrend lasted 48 bars (73 days)
Both downtrends are similar in length, with a slight increase between the first and second.
If we follow this pattern of slight growth in downtrend duration,
we can estimate based on historical patterns,
it’s reasonable to predict that the third downtrend could last approximately 74 to 78 days.
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles.
"Crypto is an expression of Macro."
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation.
Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets.
In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management:
1. Quantitative Easing (QE)
The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention:
- Prevented a complete economic collapse
- Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets
- Kept interest rates artificially low
- Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession
2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy
Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management:
- Coordinated interest rate decisions
- Shared information about economic interventions
- Created global liquidity pools
3. Cyclical Liquidity Management
The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through:
- Periodic liquidity injections
- Strategic interest rate adjustments
- Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one
The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of:
- 2-3 years of expansionary policy
- Followed by a contraction or normalization period
This cycle typically involves:
- Expanding money supply
- Lowering interest rates
- Supporting asset prices
- Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating
The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions.
This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
Ethereum towards new ATH?After testing the resistance above 4,000, the flash crash in Alts impacted ETH/USD as well, resulting in a sharp drop to 3,500.
However, the strong support established at this level held firm, preventing further declines. Now, the price is approaching the resistance zone once again.
At this point, it seems the bulls are gaining momentum, making a breakout above the resistance highly likely.
If this breakout materializes, the price could accelerate significantly, with 5,000 emerging as the next logical target.
XAUUSD Testing The Idea That Trend Keeps TrendingPreviously when I am doing the DCA thing, I would long when price is at support, and when price breaks through support, I would continue to DCA. However, now I have a new idea since last week, that is to trade in the direction of the current wave's trend while taking into account the overall trend and market condition.
Now, even though I believe that a finite resource such as gold (at least on earth), would increase in price in the long run, but it has it's own cycles of ups and downs in the short run, and in this current cycle, I believe it is going to go downwards.
Even though price is obviously at a minor Support area currently, but I am going to short XAUUSD because the trend is down, now.
Unless if price really pushes itself upwards, and trends upwards, otherwise I have zero reason to be buying right now.
Alrighty now, I am not buying now. I am just testing this idea out and journalling it here for all to see if anyone is interested.
We shall see how it goes.
TLDR : Price trends in one direction, buy in that direction. If price reverses in the opposite direction completely, we would close the current positions and open new positions in the new direction.
1439SGT 16122024
NVIDIA: Fib Fractal MappingConsidering all those observed fractal patterns from:
A fractal to narrow in would be:
Let's unfold:
This means we have identified scalable structural basis.
Fibonacci Mapping
Validation of Metrics via Resonation:
Validation of Fibonacci channel tilt:
Fractals of Previous Cycle:
Scalable Fractals:
Fractal patterns are approximations and are not solely about predicting price movements on the Y-axis; they also encompass the frequency of reversals on the X-axis. The timing of smaller cycles, which serve as the building blocks of these patterns, holds greater significance than the overall composite price changes.
BTC dell 120.000$📊 BTCUSDT Analysis:
Current Price: $102,859.06
Sell Zone: Near $120,000.00 (🟢 Major resistance)
Support Zone: $77,777.00 (🛡️ Key level for potential rebound)
🚨 Signal:
Bearish Scenario: If BTC reaches $120,000.00, it’s a sell opportunity 📉.
Bullish Scenario: In a strong bull trend (📈), you can buy dips around $77,777.00 (🚀 support area).
💡 Strategy:
Take profits near $120,000.00 🎯 if already holding BTC.
Watch for entries at $77,777.00 🔍 if BTC retraces.
📈 Trend: Overall Bullish unless support at $93,175 or $77,777 breaks (🔻).
🔐 Risk Management:
Stop-loss for buys: Below $73,316.18 (⚠️ Critical level).
Let me know if you need further clarification or tailored strategies!
APPLE: Fibonacci Fractal Mapping IApple Inc has some complex cycles which we're about to breakdown to composite phases via fibonacci ratios.
REGULARITIES
Continuous Fractal
Since start 00's, bearish trends in Apple have notably shrunk in percentage terms, painting the past two decades as a period of ever growing optimism. Many long-term cycles remain incomplete for an extended time amplifying the opposing force.
A linear extensions through local tops can serve a future support level.
A parallel line of that same angle carries the same deterministic properties.
This unlocks use of Fibonacci channels to further analyze the structure factoring in specific side tilt.
Continuous Fractal Type - forces alternative approach in interconnecting critical points
Fibonacci Fractal Mapping
Fractal Hierarchy
WITH GBPUSD FURTHER BREAKDOWN, LIKELY TARGETING BELOW 1.25000After micro double top, Cable further closed below 1.26178 indicating more weakness of the pair. The pair is now targeting to go lower...
N.B!
- GBPUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gbpusd
#cable
GBPUSD bears seems to be in controlIchimoku Analysis
1. Price vs. Cloud (Kumo):
The price has sharply broken below the Kumo (cloud), confirming a bearish trend.
The Senkou Span A (leading green line) is below Senkou Span B (leading red line), showing sustained bearish momentum.
2. Tenkan-Sen (Red Line) vs. Kijun-Sen (Blue Line):
A bearish cross (Tenkan-Sen below Kijun-Sen) occurred earlier, supporting the downward move.
3. Chikou Span (Lagging Green Line):
The Chikou Span is below price and cloud, affirming no immediate support in historical price levels.
4. Key Support & Resistance:
Resistance: 1.2763 - 1.2786 (cloud top and recent highs).
Support: 1.2600 (current psychological level), 1.2550 (minor support), and 1.2500 (major psychological support).
Ichimoku Wave Theory
The current price move forms a bearish N-Wave:
1. Impulse Up to 1.2786.
2. Correction Down to 1.2650.
3. Continuation Down to the current level (1.2600), with potential for a further leg down.
A measured move projects a continuation of approximately 100-120 pips below 1.2600, aligning with 1.2500.
Ichimoku Time Theory
Time cycles (9, 17, and 26 periods) help predict the timing of price targets:
1. Breakout Timing:
The breakout below the cloud occurred after 17 periods of consolidation.
2. Time to Targets:
TP1 (1.2550): Likely within 9 periods (36 hours) from the breakout point.
TP2 (1.2500): Likely within 17 periods (68 hours) from the breakout.
Each period represents 4 hours (4H chart).
Trade Setup
1. Entry:
Sell on a confirmed break below 1.2600.
Alternatively, enter on a retest of 1.2650 (Kijun-Sen level).
2. Stop-Loss:
Above the Kumo at 1.2763 to protect against reversal.
3. Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.2550 (minor support) – expected within 36 hours (1.5 days).
TP2: 1.2500 (psychological level and measured move target) – expected within 68 hours (3 days).
4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Entry: 1.2600
SL: 1.2763 (163 pips)
TP1: 1.2550 (50 pips)
TP2: 1.2500 (100 pips)
Conclusion
The bearish structure, confirmed by Ichimoku Cloud, Wave Theory, and Time Theory, favors further downside.
Expect TP1 (1.2550) in approximately 1.5 days and TP2 (1.2500) in 3 days.
Monitor for a retest of 1.2650 or a clear break of 1.2600 before entering short positions.
This setup aligns with Ichimoku's principles of combining price, time, and wave analysis for a comprehensive trade strategy.
ETHUSD: Progressive FractalREGULARITIES
Emerging Fractals
Progressive Fractal Type
Increased fractal's playback frequency
Fibonacci Fractal Mapping
Fib Channels Y-axis - Price scale incline
Fib Channels X-axis - Time scale incline
Fractal Interference Pattern
Producing Structure-based Probabilistic Fibonacci Targets
Validation of Fractal Metrics via Resonation
Altseason Awakes: The 2025 Crypto Bull Run Is Here!🚀 ALTSEASON 2025 STARTS NOW! 🚀
Altseason Setup – Breakout Confirmed, Uptrend Ahead!
Chart Overview
This chart highlights a significant trend reversal in the **OTHERS.D** (crypto market cap excluding the top 10) dominance percentage. A **downtrend breakout** signals that **Altseason** may be right around the corner in 2025!
---
Key Observations
📉 Long-Term Downtrend Broken:
- The grey descending trendline (dynamic resistance) has been breached after a long accumulation phase.
- This marks the end of a 2+ year compression phase** (2022-2024), where altcoin dominance remained suppressed.
🟢 Accumulation at Support:
- The market has shown strong **support** at **11-12% dominance**.
- Multiple bounces (green arrows) in the red compression zone signal that buyers are stepping in.
📈 Bullish Projection – 20-22% Dominance:
- Following the breakout, the chart projects a steady *uptrend* (green dotted line) toward 20-22% dominance** by 2026.
- Cyclical patterns suggest that a major **Altseason** could begin in 2025, mirroring previous rallies.
---
*Key Levels to Watch*
🔑 Support Zone : 11.0-12.0% (current range).
🔑 Target Zone : 20-22% dominance in the coming years.
---
#Summary
✅ Altseason Setup Confirmed!
The breakout from the descending trendline, combined with strong support at the 11-12% range, signals the start of a new **altcoin dominance cycle**. If this pattern holds, **Altcoins** may significantly outperform major cryptos in 2025-2027.
---
🚀 Trade Idea
- Long-Term Strategy : Accumulate strong altcoin projects early in 2025.
- Projection : Altcoin dominance to rise toward **20-22%** levels.
---
⚡ **Share your thoughts below! Are you ready for Altseason 2025?** ⚡
---
### **#Altseason2025 #CryptoMarket #OTHERS.D #Altcoins #CryptoBreakout #TradingViewIdeas**
BTC.D Top outHistory never repeats but it tends to rime quite well.
If we use that saying as the base for this thesis then we should see BTC.D top out at between 69-78% dominance using the horizontal resistance at the previous dominance top (2021).
To estimate this in a timely manner we plot the dates of the halvings and the date of BTC price ATH. To extrapolate the future cycle top we take the number of days from the halvings to the BTC price ATH and add them together and divide them by the number of cycle tops.
x=(a+b+c)/3
Historically we find confluence in the RSI momentum oscillator were the strength of the BTC.D is weakening hence gaining momentum to the downside. If history rimes we are entering that part of the cycle within the next 3-6 months.
#SCF : MEDIUM LONG TERM ENTRYi have an important support area between 0.040 and 0.019.
as long as we stay within that price range over the next weeks, the current bearish movement will remain healthy.
i see a possible change in structure from bearish to bullish between december and january.
🎯 first target: 80%
🎯 second target: 132%
🎯 third target: between 240% and 280%
this does not include the compounded interest from taking partial profits and reentries within the upward trend.
VELOUSD 12/3/2024VELOUSD Daily Chart Analysis
VELOUSD has exhibited distinct market cycle phases, presenting a strong bullish setup
.
Key Observations
1. Market Cycle Phases:
o From April to July 2024, price underwent a steep downtrend, indicative of a distribution or markdown phase.
o Between July and November, price transitioned into an accumulation phase, consolidating within a defined range.
2. Breakout Confirmation:
o At the end of November/start of December, price broke out of the accumulation range.
o A spike in volume supports the validity of the breakout, and the price has sustained its position above the resistance level for 7 consecutive days, signaling strong buying pressure.
Trade Details
• Position: Long
• Entry: 0.13341
• Stop Loss: 0.11322 (15.13% risk)
• Target: 0.22295 (67.12% potential return)
• Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 4.43
Summary
The breakout from the accumulation range, supported by volume and momentum, suggests a continuation of bullish activity. The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for long trades. Careful monitoring of the stop-loss level is recommended to protect against potential retracements.
DXY- Will it continue up into year's end?December is usually a bearish month for the USD. However, this time, the situation could be different. The USD seems well-supported by fundamentals, and the technicals are looking bullish.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that after the local high at 108, the index started to fall and broke below the support from the April-May highs (old resistance). However, after hitting a low at the 105.50 zone, the USD Index reversed, breaking above the falling trendline of the corrective falling wedge and also reclaiming the 106.40 resistance.
At this moment, there is a high chance of upward continuation, and as long as the 106–106.40 zone remains intact, the outlook remains valid.
Technical Analysis of XRP/USDT📊 Technical Analysis of XRP/USDT (Weekly Chart)
Key Highlights:
Long-term Ascending Channel:
The chart shows a strong upward ascending channel highlighted by blue lines. 📈
The lower boundary serves as strong support, and the upper boundary acts as a key resistance. 🔵
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Zone: Between $2.6 and $1.9. 🟥
Support Zone: Around $0.96 and the lower boundary at $0.29. 🟩
600% Target:
A potential bullish target of around $6.54–$6.39 has been identified. 🚀✨
✅ Possible Price Movements:
The price has recently rejected near the resistance zone and may retrace toward $1.9. 🔄
If the support level at $0.96 holds, a bullish rebound toward the channel’s upper boundary and the $6.54 target could occur. 📈💹
Breaking below critical support (below $0.46) may lead the price toward the channel's bottom, near $0.29. ⚠️📉
🎯 Trading Strategy Suggestion:
Buy Entry: Near key supports like $0.96. 🟢
Stop Loss: Below the channel’s lower boundary or $0.46. ⛔️
Take Profit: Around $3.0, $6.54, or the channel’s upper boundary. 🏆
🛑 Important Note:
This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always perform further research and apply proper risk management before making financial decisions. ⚠️
DXY on the rise.DXY has completed its Wyckoff Accumulation and is headed higher.
The DXY strengthening supports shorts on XX/USD pairs.
2 cycles confirming bullishness ( possibly)There is a strong possibility of GBPUSD hitting above the 1.28s even 1.29 or higher. I am already in this trade but this is my outlook....... Stops at 1.267
Acw Ppi analysis Using previous price action of cpi week dec
Taking Monday and Tuesday price action
We note that price structure is very similar
That said using trading view bar pattern tool we copy price action and place into current Thursday
We note that structure is similar
That said Thursday breaks Wednesday High , similar to Tuesday breaking Monday High
We also note that Asia low is similar to Asia low Tuesday
We expect Ppi to buy and possible target Nov nfp high leading to a possible ath break on the gc1! Futures contract
BTC DOMINANCE- BEARISH AFLife and Trading: Decisions Shape Outcomes
Life can shift dramatically in a single day—either for the better or worse. Everything boils down to the decisions you make, whether in heated moments or calm reflection. When chaos and panic dominate, your best refuge lies in creativity, knowledge and balls.
During the recent shakeout, I stayed silent—not because I lacked an opinion, but because moments like these require clarity. It’s like a car crash—you first ensure your safety before analyzing the damage. So, I distanced myself from the noise and dove deep into the charts.
Key Observations: Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin dominance, a critical indicator during altcoin crashes, was rising but met resistance at significant levels. Bearish arguments at that time included:
Weekly Bearish FVG respected
Daily Bearish FVG respected
Trendline retest confirming the break
Current Bearish Arguments:
PMH & PML respected
PWH & PWL respected
Weekly and Daily Bearish FVG respected
4H swing highs/lows respected
4H Bearish FVG respected
Strategy:
Given these signals, it’s tempting to go all-in on altcoins. However, I anticipate a ranging market until Christmas, followed by a dip below the 50% level—a precursor to a true altcoin bull market.
Be cautious: I expect another shakeout around December 18 or 23, where I plan to take significant positions. Always have a clear entry and exit plan to navigate these volatile waters.
Follow me to stay updated, and remember—this market rewards patience and preparation.
God bless you.
-Jay
