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Economic Cycles

Bitcoin Cyclical Pattern Analysis: 2017 vs 2025-2026The charts provide compelling evidence of fractal patterns between Bitcoin's 2017 bull run and the current 2025 cycle, revealing both striking similarities and meaningful differences in market behavior. Key Similarities Both periods display remarkably similar structural patterns with consistent sequence of movements: Initial pulldowns (~34% in 2017 vs ~33% in 2025) Series of uptrends followed by corrective pullbacks Progressive upward momentum with higher highs and higher lows Similar number of major price waves (four significant uptrends in each case) Key Differences Timeframe Extension: The 2025 cycle shows significantly extended durations compared to 2017 Initial pulldown: 3 weeks (2017) vs 21 weeks (2025) – 7x longer First major uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 11 weeks (2025) – similar duration Second uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 14 weeks (2025) – slightly longer Overall cycle progression is approximately 2-3x longer Magnitude Reduction: The 2025 cycle shows diminished percentage movements: First major uptrend: 230% (2017) vs 120% (2025) – roughly half Second uptrend: 172% (2017) vs 85% (2025) – roughly half Final uptrend: 253% (2017) vs 125% (2025) – roughly half Technical Analysis Support This pattern correlation would likely be supported by other technical indicators: Bollinger Bands would show: Similar pattern of band expansion during strong directional moves Band contraction during consolidation periods before breakouts 2025 likely exhibiting less volatility (narrower bands) but with similar repeating patterns of price touching upper bands during uptrends and lower bands during corrections Ichimoku Cloud would demonstrate: Similar cloud breakout patterns preceding major uptrends Price respecting key Ichimoku components (Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen) as support/resistance 2025 showing extended time within the cloud during longer consolidation periods Similar bullish/bearish crossovers of the conversion and base lines, but occurring over longer timeframes Predictive Value This comparative lens offers valuable predictive power for several reasons: Market Psychology Consistency: Despite Bitcoin's maturation, market psychology (fear, greed cycles) remains remarkably consistent, expressed through similar percentage retracements and fractal patterns. Macro Context Integration: The longer durations and reduced volatility in 2025 reflect Bitcoin's increased market capitalization and institutional adoption, creating a logical evolution of the same underlying patterns. Specific Forecasting Application: If the pattern correlation holds, we might anticipate: The current cycle extending into mid-2026 One more major uptrend followed by a 30-40% correction A final explosive move of approximately 125-150% Total cycle appreciation significantly less than 2017 but still substantial Risk Management Framework: These patterns provide clear pivot points for position sizing and risk management, with defined percentage targets and timeframes. This analysis suggests we're witnessing an evolved expression of the same market dynamics that drove the 2017 cycle, with the extended timeframes and reduced percentage movements reflecting Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class while maintaining its fundamental cyclical character.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by rathernotsay21
BTC to the moonIs Bitcoin Just Getting Started? This Fib Zone Could Be the Ultimate Buy Signal! Bitcoin is pulling back… but smart money is watching this golden zone. After a strong rally, BTC is now retesting the 61.8%–78.6% Fib retracement zone—historically one of the highest-probability reversal areas in crypto. We’re not just guessing here… the chart is showing structure, confluence, and opportunity. My Trade Plan (Weekly Chart) - Entry Zone: FWB:83K – $85K - Re-entry/DCA: $79K – $81K - Stop Loss: $74K - Take Profits: - TP1: $95K - TP2: $109K (previous high) - TP3: $130K–$144K (extension zone) Bullish bias unless we close below $78K on the weekly. A clean breakout above GETTEX:89K could send BTC into price discovery mode again. Could this be the last big dip before a parabolic move? Time will tell, but this setup has everything we look for. Agree? Disagree? Drop your thoughts below. Follow for more swing setups & macro plays. #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Fibonacci #PriceAction #SwingTrade #Bullish #CryptoAnalysis #BTCUSD #BitcoinHalving #BuyTheDip #AltseasonComing #TradingView
BLACKBULL:BTCUSDLong
by Sthesh_Don_Billiato
Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $90sIshares 20+ Treasury Bond NASDAQ:TLT are particularly sensitive to interest rates: the price moves up when they are lowered and down when they rise. Locally, I'm witnessing banks lower their interest rates for CDs and shorten the duration for those with high-yielding returns. The general political rhetoric, especially due to the election cycle, is a push for the Federal Reserve to drop them. Now, despite the possible negative economic implications of lowering interest rates too soon if inflation is high, there is a good probability they may be lowered (even slightly) in 2024... perhaps September? This analysis isn't to time the bottom perfectly, though. Instead, it's a probability assessment. Personally, TLT in the low $90s is in a long-term "buy-zone". Target #1 = $104 Target #2 = $122 Target #3 = $170+ (very long-term view / economic crash... let's hope not, though)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $80sFor the patient, one of the "safest" investments is in long-term treasury bonds (specifically NASDAQ:TLT ). For those who may not understand why, bond prices move inversely to yields. If interest rates drop (which the Federal Reserve has stated is going to happen this year), NASDAQ:TLT will rise. If interest rates rise (like what happened in early 2022), NASDAQ:TLT will fall. But all information from the Federal Reserve points to interest rate cuts starting this year *or* in the near future. As of April 1st, 2025, the dividend yield for NASDAQ:TLT is 4.52%. That interest rate beats the vast majority of savings accounts right now. I don't think we will see NASDAQ:TLT prices in the $80's longer than a year or two. A contrarian may argue "inflation is rising!", but the data continue to point to it actually stabilizing. Yes, prices are higher compared to 4-5 years ago for just about everything... but the higher prices are "stable". Tariffs may put a slight wrinkle in this stability in the near-term, but I think the economy is already slowing and the Federal Reserve will be pressured to start dropping interest rates sooner than later. I believe a global economic bust is inevitable - but no one knows when. Anyone who says they can time it is a charlatan. If/when a global economic bust occurs, the Federal Reserve will drop interest rates (like what happened in 2020) to get the economy juiced up again. NASDAQ:TLT will double in price or go further. My general point is I *believe* NASDAQ:TLT is nearing a low and any future declines (especially below $80) are personal opportunities for buy-and-hold. It's a solid hedge with a good dividend. Options don't give you that and timing events is a guessing game for every retail trader. So, as someone who tries to think beyond the "now", I am gathering shares, enjoying the dividend, and not touching them until a global economic bust occurs. Currently holding positions at $85, $86, $87, and $90. Targets: 2027: $100.00 2028: $105.00 2029: $110.00 2030: $115.00 Bust (unknown timing): $170+
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
Gold touches all-time high. Overbought or poised for more upsideGold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has soared to a new all-time high, marking the launch of its next bullish phase. This powerful uptrend began on September 26, 2022, and is unfolding as a five-wave Elliott Wave pattern, a technical framework traders use to predict market movements. The first wave (I) climbed to 2081.82, showing strong momentum. Then, a corrective wave (II) pulled back to 1810.58, setting the stage for more gains. The third wave (III) was the most explosive, rocketing to 3167.74, driven by global demand for the safe-haven metal. Wave IV followed, forming a zigzag pattern—a typical correction where prices dip before resuming the trend. This correction found its low at 2954.62 after a structured decline. Now, gold is advancing in wave V, the final leg of this impulse. The first sub-wave, wave (1), hit 3132.59, with smaller waves within it showing steady progress. A brief wave (2) dip ended at 3103.17, and now wave (3) is pushing prices higher. As long as the key support at 2954.6 holds, pullbacks should attract buyers, particularly in 3, 7, or 11 swings—technical levels where dips often reverse. This suggests more upside ahead for gold, appealing to both traders and investors watching this historic rally.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
After the gold frenzy, there will soon be a sharp correctionTo be honest, I must admit that I still hold a short position. I think there should be many people holding short positions now, but they are unwilling to admit that they hold short positions because they are losing money. I think it is not shameful to hold a short position now. Although gold has violently risen to around 3220, from the perspective of trading volume, gold is rising without volume. Without the support of trading volume, gold is destined to usher in a round of correction in the short term. And I have reason to believe that the accelerated rise of gold is suspected of being manipulated by large institutional funds. There are two purposes. One is to accelerate the rise to attract more retail funds to flow into the market to take over; the other is to raise prices arbitrarily to make it easier to sell. So the faster gold rises, the easier it is to collapse! We first aim at the retracement target: 3150-3130 area，or even 3120. So for short-term trading, I think we can still continue to short gold, and I am optimistic about the short position of gold! The trading strategy verification accuracy rate is more than 90%; one step ahead, exclusive access to trading strategies and real-time trading settings
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trader_Marvin
ETH | Ethereum Hits 2 YEAR LOW - What's Next?Could it be that ETH bottoms out here? Low from March 2023: Interestingly enough, it could be said that it was the previous cycle's accumulation zone. Considering the previous cycle's price action, this isn't a ad zone to load up - for the longer term. From here, although the price bounced high, and low, it was the 8-month price action before the next bullish cycle started. This gives us perspective in terms of time ___________________ BINANCE:ETHUSDT
Long
by CryptoCheck-
$NIO You're updated roadmap for $NIOcopy & paste from twitter & stocktwits: We have to see how it develops, but expecting to see an expanded flat with a 5 wave impulse to complete this sideways correction that started April 15, 2024 before we make the final move down to complete the macro structure and unfortunately filling gaps below....cont The TVC:HSI & NYSE:BABA appear like they will make new lows over the next 24 mo. paying closer attention when new lows are made on TVC:HSI and around 12k. I thought we found the bottom going into March/April last year but wrong as this developed into a corrective flat for NYSE:NIO lastly the volume profile isn't capturing the correct data - if we view only $66.99 to the current low, there is a massive volume gap at the ~0.382 fib correcting wave W (the 5-3-5 structure) at $11.02 which is the highest tgt for this bounce & HSI finishing correction from 2007
NYSE:NIOLong
by Drunkmonk
2
Bitcoin Cycle Rhythm: Same Downtrend, New Quadrant.Cycle Comparison – From Halving to Halving We're seeing a striking similarity between the current downtrend and the one that followed the 2020 halving. The slope, structure, and emotional impact on price are almost identical. However — here's the key difference: It's all about Quadrant Timing. In the previous cycle, the sell-off happened during Quadrant 2 — traditionally the euphoric blow-off and start of distribution. In this cycle, we’re seeing the same type of correction in late Quadrant 1, a phase typically associated with accumulation and early markup. Before this correction began, Bitcoin rallied 120% from turning point 10 to turning point 1 — a textbook markup leg that aligns with early-cycle behavior. Now, we've seen a retracement of approximately 32% from turning point 1 to 2, closely mirroring the structure seen in the prior cycle. This suggests that while the pattern is repeating, the context has shifted — this drawdown could be a shakeout, not a cycle top. If the 4-quadrant structure continues to play out, Quadrant 2 may still lie ahead, potentially setting the stage for a much stronger upside continuation. Let me know what you think — is this setup still bullish in structure, or are we seeing the beginning of a deeper phase?
Long
by tolacvk