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Economic Cycles

BTC’s Historical Pattern Is Back—Are You Watching ?Hello Traders 🐺 In this idea, I want to talk about a pattern that almost nobody is talking about these days—so make sure to fasten your seatbelt and get ready, because this chart is about to blow your mind! 💥📊 On the monthly chart, after breaking out from its previous ATH, BTC formed an ascending channel and started moving up steadily—not like a parabolic run. 🚀 Just when everyone thought the BTC rally was over and a bear market was incoming, BTC made its final explosive move, shocking the entire world. 🌍⚡ 🔍 So What Now? Are we about to experience a full year of bull market, or will this run last only 2–3 months? In my opinion, we’re entering the final phase of the BTC move. Historically, this phase is shorter than the major wave after halving, but percentage-wise, it’s often even bigger. And this time, we might witness the real explosion—because as I mentioned in my recent ideas, BTC.D is on the edge of collapse! 📉🔥 Considering all this, we can expect a massive pump in Altcoins market caps. Also, if you take a look at the Global M2, you’ll see there's more than enough liquidity to fuel the market and push it through the final phase of this bull run! 💰📈 So make sure to follow me to stay up to date with market movements—and ride the profit wave all the way up! 🏄‍♂️💎 and always remember : 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable , But almost always profitable 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Kiu_Coin
Is altseason soon?Hi, traders 👋 I’d like to share my thoughts and observations regarding Bitcoin dominance and the timing of the long-awaited altseason. In general, I like to determine the phase altcoins are in by analyzing one of the oldest representatives of this group — Litecoin. Like other financial instruments, cryptocurrency tends to follow certain patterns. Although each cycle comes with its own unique characteristics, historical similarities are often present. Let’s take a look at the Litecoin chart. When reviewing the chart, we can see a number of similarities with the previous cycle. Based on this, and if we assume that markets are cyclical and certain chart patterns and behaviors tend to repeat, it appears we are currently either in the equivalent of March or September 2020. The case for March is supported by the fact that we haven’t yet seen a final liquidity sweep according to the Wyckoff model — the so-called “spring” phase. On the other hand, the case for September is supported by the timing following the end of the previous bear market phase. Now, let’s take a look at the Bitcoin dominance chart. In this cycle, the dominance chart has been showing clear and reliable chart patterns. The pattern that has been forming since November 21, 2024, could potentially be either a Wolfe wave or an ending diagonal triangle according to Elliott Wave theory. At the moment, waves 1, 2, and 3 are clearly visible, and wave 4 is currently in the process of forming. There is also a clear alternation between waves 2 and 4, which strengthens this observation. If the assumption about the Wolfe wave pattern is correct, we should still see one final push higher in Bitcoin dominance as part of wave 5. This would likely lead to a further decline in altcoins. In that case, referring back to the Litecoin chart analysis, it would confirm that we are currently in the equivalent of March 2020. I’m glad to share my observations with you.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by CapitalHustle
1
Potenial inverse head and shoulders pattern for Bitcoin This is the scenario I’m believing in for the near term for BINANCE:BTCUSD . One more leg down to confirm the neckline around 78,300 USD. Quick reversal price action to retest the 92,300 USD (ish) level. If the breakout takes place to the upside, then I think we will retest the previous highs, with a higher probability of going much higher. Although I believe the tariffs will have a big impact on the USD (DXY index), which I believe will have a strong effect on BTC for the near term, around the coming 6 months. So, I believe the new high will most likely come in Q4 this year, making this cycle different from the historic crypto cycles. Although, there is still a chance that other countries will start to adopt more crypto-friendly policies for crypto or Bitcoin, making this thesis more uncertain. If the policies come out as positive, then I think there are good chances of reaching new highs earlier than Q4, 2025.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Liljan
DKNG Update | Crash AheadOne of the best fractal overlays I've seen with some Elliott Waves to go with it. Price is still in a uptrend but with growing sellers It'll come to an end similar to the last fractal. During the 3rd wave in the last pattern price experienced its first pullback at (B), and its second at correction wave 4 and the third after the last wave before we witnessed the last push in buyers. This current cycle price is in a similar stage with a swing low at (b) meaning that we could see another run-up towards major resistance ($63). This would be the final blow-off-top in general markets. TVC:RUT is already showing signs of weakness which works well with this TA example. When the time is right I'll do another TA for the downfall. For now I'm bullish but for the horizon I'm very bearish.
NASDAQ:DKNGLong
by Nathanl19
5
Sell in May, if you're g....ame to miss out. Bitcoin needs to reach a 60 day cycle high above $90k AND close the next 60 day cycle above ~84k to stand a chance at keeping hopes for a right-translated cycle alive. Failure to do this will make the previous top of $109k look much stronger as the left-translated cycle top and crush many dreams. Even if momentum for a right-translated top stays alive through these targets in the 60 day cycle, most people are delusional calling for highs of $169k - $250k, these expectations are baked in and will likely not be reached--too much complacency on these price targets. If we do see a right-translated cycle top towards November of this year, it's likely the top will be just barely higher than previous ATH and crush many expectations. Many will fail to take profits and will get stuck bag-holding for 4 years.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by herblock
NVIDIA Rounding Top: Bearish Swings Q1 2025TA Nvidia demonstrated strong growth throughout 2024. However, this year, it has shown rather a poor performance. When an uptrend started to weaken, it gave off subtle signals before a full reversal happened on the horizon. One of the first clues is that the highs collectively begin to appear curved compared with initial rough growth. This reflects the loss of aggressive bullish intent, showing hesitation and vulnerability to a reversal. The price still makes higher highs, but the incremental gain between each peak shrinks. This declining magnitude in price advancement suggests that buyers are gradually losing strength with each move. These shallow bullish waves often get sold into quickly, showing early distribution behavior. Simultaneously, it takes longer time for price to reach each successive high . When higher highs occur at reduced frequency, the rally phases become stretched out. This indicates buyers are struggling, and sellers are gaining time-based control. Extended Rounding Top Pattern Price crosses above the rounding top Indicates a failed reversal and potential bullish breakout. Suggests renewed buying strength and possible trend continuation. I'd recommend using confirmation tools like volume spikes and momentum indicators which are essential to validate the breakout. Price reaches the rounding top and stalls or reverses Confirms the bearish reversal signal of the pattern. Acts as a strong resistance zone, often leading to a downtrend. Alongside with fibs, it can be used as a cue to take profits, exit long trades, or enter short positions. FUNDAMENTALS Catalysts of Bearish Swings A transition phase characterized by a series of sharp bearish swings, marked by a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, shaping a well-defined downward channel. Drop #1: ATH → Higher Low (Early January 2025) After Nvidia’s euphoric 2024 AI hype rally, it was a matter of time as some institutional Investors locked in profits, causing initial drop. Valuation metrics (P/E; P/S) reached extremes creating grounds for a correction. The Fed’s January meeting hinted at fewer rate cuts than the market expected. Rising Treasury yields pressured tech stocks. The U.S. government has imposed strict export controls on advanced semiconductors, AI chips and related technology to China. Drop #2: Lower High → Lower Low (Late January to February 2025) While Nvidia beat Q4 earnings expectations, its forward guidance disappointed. Management cited softening data center orders and consumer GPU inventory corrections. Concerns about potential erosion in gross margins due to increasing costs and competitive pricing pressure from AMD and Intel. AI infrastructure spending was plateauing faster than expected, leading to re-ratings across the sector. Drop #3: Second Lower High → Second Lower Low (Mid to Late February through Early March 2025) Several investment banks downgraded semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, amid fears of a cyclical slowdown and oversupply risks in H2 2025. In early March, broader indices dropped due to hot inflation prints in February. Fed’s stance during testimony to Congress indicated a higher interest rate outlook. Reports emerged about delays in next-gen chip production due to yield issues at TSMC and logistics constraints, fueling investor anxiety. Renewed export control tightening and U.S.-China friction were again cited as major concerns earlier this year. These concerns were part of the bearish narrative during Nvidia’s downward structure, especially during Drop #1 and Drop #2 where investors began pricing in geopolitical and regulatory headwinds. Events & Economic catalysts to monitor (before buying heavy): Nvidia Earnings Q1 2025 Mid to Late May 2025 Why it matters: Forward guidance, Data Center/AI segment growth, margin updates, and China sales commentary will heavily impact sentiment and trend direction. U.S. CPI (Inflation) Reports April 10, 2025 (March CPI) Remember: Hot inflation = higher rate expectations → tech sector sell-off. Watch for YoY core CPI trends. U.S. Jobs Report (NFP) April 4, 2025 Keep in mind: Strong labor = sticky inflation = Fed hawkishness → higher discount rates on growth stocks. Semiconductor Industry Conferences ・NVIDIA GTC (GPU Technology Conference) – usually held Spring or Fall ・Semicon West 2025 – typically July Track the progress: Product launches, AI roadmaps, new partnerships, and forward tech strategy updates often revealed.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by fract
2
[ TimeLine ] Gold 14-17 March 2025Hello everyone, I will be using the high and low price levels formed on March 14 and 17, 2025 (Friday and Monday), as entry points for my trades. We will wait for the price range from these candles to form, as indicated by the green lines. The trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with an additional buffer of 60 pips. If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut or switch the trade accordingly and double the position size to recover losses. 📉📈 Below is the chart with the estimated Hi-Lo range of March 14-17, 2025: x/K6XSMnfZ/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
The Fed Cuts Balance Sheet Runoff by 80% - BULLISH!RISK-ON 🚨 I’m seeing so many people incorrectly analyzing the September 2019 emergency repo OMOs, which were short-term liquidity injections from the Fed, and then comparing it to the price of BTC going down, before QE officially started in March 2020 because of the pandemic. Here’s what really happened. September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling ~$100B out of markets as large corporations paid the IRS and funds flew into the TGA. Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities. During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance. Unfortunately, the Fed was flying blind and did not have a hard number estimate for “ample reserves” in the banking system. These reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread. This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations. SOUND FAMILIAR !? The US just resolved its CR to avoid a government shutdown, and they will be refilling the TGA by issuing new T-Bills. The reverse repo facility is also nearly drained. Today, we heard the Fed will be reducing its securities runoff from $25B - SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on April 1st, an 80% adjustment. One of the main drivers is they wanted to get ahead of another 2019-style repo crisis (although they won’t say this), rather than being reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs once again. Now to go back to my original point with people saying the Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff is a big nothingburger based on BTC price action in 2019. BTC dumped because of the repo crisis, NOT because markets needed QE. By early 2020, the liquidity crisis was resolved, and BTC pumped ~45% before the pandemic hit in March and nuked the chart. Proof is in the pudding - just look at the 2017 bull market. QT started in October 2017, and the market ripped until early 2018. The Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff by 80% is definitely a signal of risk-on for educated market participants, as it leaves more reserves in the financial system, which gives banks more liquidity to loan the market. i.e. M2 go up. But keep listening to your favorite large accounts who are all of a sudden macro gurus, what do I know 🤓
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
Critical zone for Bitcoin – Pump or Dump!(Mid-term Analysis)Today, I want to analyze Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) on a weekly time frame so that you can take a mid-term view of BTC. On November 12, 2024 , I shared with you another weekly analysis in which we found the All-Time High(ATH) zone well. Please stay with me. Bitcoin has been on an upward trend for the past 27 months , increasing by about +600% . Have you been able to profit from this upward trend in Bitcoin? During these 27 months , Bitcoin has had two significant corrections , the first correction -20% and the second correction -33% (interestingly, both corrections lasted about 5 months ). Another thing we can understand from the two main corrections is that the second correction is bigger than the first correction , and since Bitcoin is currently in the third correction , we can expect the third correction to be either equal to the second correction or greater than the second correction . Of course, this is just an analysis that should be placed alongside the analyses below . It seems that the start of Bitcoin's correction can be confirmed with the help of the Adam & Adam Double Top Pattern(AADT) . Bitcoin also created a fake breakout above the Resistance lines . Educational tip : The Adam & Adam Double Top (AADT) is a bearish reversal pattern characterized by two sharp, ^-shaped peaks at nearly the same price level. It indicates strong resistance and a potential trend reversal once the price breaks below the neckline between the peaks. Bitcoin appears to be completing a pullback to the broken neckline . According to Elliott's Wave theory , Bitcoin seems to have completed its 5 impulse waves , and we should wait for corrective waves . It is a bit early to determine the structure of the corrective waves , but I think it will have a Zigzag Correction . The structure of the corrective waves depends on the news and events of the coming weeks and months. I think the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) will be a very sensitive zone for Bitcoin. I expect Bitcoin to start correcting again when it approaches $87,000 or $90,000 at most, and fills the CME Gap($86,400_$85,595) , and at least approaches the Heavy Support zone($73,800_$59,000) AFTER breaking the uptrend line . In your opinion, has Bitcoin finished its correction or created an opportunity for us to escape again? Note: If Bitcoin goes above $90,500, we should expect further increases and even make a new All-Time High(ATH). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), Weekly time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
39
The Bitcoin Google trends wedge pattern. Good day traders & investors, Is the Google trends search for Bitcoin about to explode ?! The chart pattern is a bullish one. The Google trend search topped out back in 2017 and has been in a wedge pattern since then. The search/interest recently broke out of this 8 year wedge pattern and this month retested the breakout. This is typically a bullish pattern and shows the interest and search volume is picking up and could very soon explode again. The settings for this search was world wide , bitcoin and a custom time interval set from Jan 1st 2009 to Mar 19th 2025 Since inception the interest for Bitcoin gained volume/growth until it peaked in 2017. Ever since then the interest and searches has been making lower lower highs until very recently (last Oct) where it made a higher high as it broke out of this wedge. Also, since 2017 while making lower highs the google trend has been making higher lows, thus forming this wedge pattern. The break out and retest of this pattern is what shows the signs of strength and a possible explosion of interest in the near future. I have underlaid both timelines of the price and the Google trend to match, and we can clearly see that when the search trend rises, so does the price which shows a strong correlation. All of my other cycle analysis shows that May/June time could see higher prices, so you could say this is a sneak peak or confluence to other indicators. Let me know what you think in the comments below what you think. Does Google trend holds any weight? Do you think this wedge pattern and break out could lead to anything big? Please like and share. My socials are listed in the bio Kind regards, WeAreSatoshi
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
AMD: Fibonacci Framework (Fractal Analysis RECAP)In this idea, I’d like to share a quick recap about my unconventional approach to understanding the chaos of the market. Price movements don’t just mirror fundamentals, they also reshape them in continuity. Relating recent fluctuations to historic swings is crucial, because markets operate within a structured, evolving framework where past price proportions subtly wire the future. The interplay between bulls and bears doesn’t unfold randomly — it reflects recurring behavioral cycles encoded in historical patterns. Each swing carries the imprint of collective psychology, liquidity dynamics, and structural forces, which tend to repeat in varying scales. In Fractal Analysis, I recognize 2 key aspects of price dynamics: magnitude (price) and frequency of reversals (time). For example, capturing the direction of past bullish wave can be used to define boundaries of future bearish waves. In logarithmic scale, the movements exhibit relatively more consistent angle (as percentage-based distance factors in natural growth). To build structural framework, we need another 2 chart-based frames of reference because having multiple Fibonacci channels layered across cycle creates a collective framework of confluence zones, where price reactions become more meaningful. When several channels align or cluster around the same price levels, those zones gain credibility as potential support/resistance, because independent measurements are pointing to the same structural levels. This is why by analyzing price within a broader historical context, we gain perspective on where current price action fits within the larger market narrative.
NASDAQ:AMD
by fract
2
HBAR AnalysisSummary: HBAR (Hedera Hashgraph) is the native cryptocurrency of the Hedera network, utilizing Hashgraph technology instead of a traditional blockchain. It is known for its high speed, low transaction fees, strong security, and energy efficiency. HBAR is widely used for smart contracts, fast payments, and enterprise-level decentralized applications (dApps). Technical Analysis: HBAR has shown strong resistance during recent market downturns and is currently in a consolidation phase. It has formed a well-structured setup suitable for both long and short trades. The price is currently forming a Descending Triangle, maintaining a flat support level while making lower highs. • After breaking the trigger level, it could move up toward the triangle’s resistance. • There is a possibility of a trading range forming, but if the price confirms a breakout above the triangle, a bullish move may begin. • If the price loses support and breaks downward, we could see a continuation of the bearish wave. This setup provides clear trading opportunities depending on the direction of the breakout.
by NAJI1115