Bearish MarketDXY can move to 103.5 level
and GBP/USD can move to 1.27 level
then EUR/USD must have a bearish market . of course we have a FVG in 15 min leg ,
we can BUY for Short Term.
Economic Cycles
Oil (CL) Should Continue Lower to Build an Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave (1) ended at 72.48 and rally in wave (2) ended at 84.55. The commodity has turned lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 83.07 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.45. Oil then extended lower in wave (iii) towards 81.25 and wave (iv) ended at 82.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 80.81 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) unfolded in an expanded flat structure where wave (a) ended at 83.74. Wave (b) lower ended at 80.22, and rally in wave (c) ended at 83.82 which completed wave ((ii)).
Oil has turned lower in wave ((iii)) ended at 76.40 low. The market built an expanded flat correction as wave ((iv)) finishing at 78.60 high and turned lower again. CL broke below wave ((iii)) to end wave ((v)) of 1 at 74.59 low and also we ended wave 1 of (3). Up from wave 1, the market bounce in a zig zag correction ending wave 2 at 78.88 high and starting wave 3 of (3) to the downside. After 5 swings lower, wave ((i)) of 3 completed at 71.67 low and currently we are calling 3 swings higher to end wave ((ii)) pullback before resuming lower. Therefore, we expect further downside to complete wave ((iii)) of 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 78.88 high stays intact, expect rallies to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
Long trade
Sun 5th Aug 24
Buyside Trade
NY Session PM
9:00 pm (NY Time)
Entry: 53215.0
Profit Level: 60830.2 (14.31%)
Stop Level: 51904.5 (2.46%)
RR: 5.81
15-minute TF Entry
Reason: Bitcoin Price Update:
Bitcoin price is £42,760.49, down 9.96% in the last 24 hours, and the live market cap is £843,907,709,117.72. It has a circulating supply of 19,735,690 BTC coins with a max supply of 21,000,000 BTC and a £48B 24-hour trading volume.
Observed a pivotal shift in market trend and change in direction to the upside.
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Regular bearish divergence at 49.40 (overbought)
Volume Analysis: Red & yellow cluster signal
XAUUSD Gold to 4KTimeline is 6 months - 2 years
The crash has already started. At some point everyone will start to sell thier treasury bonds, yields will go up proportionally to inflation until the dollar loses it's status as the global currency and dramatic measures are used to stop inflation resulting in stagflation and yield recovery. Else hyper inflation and the dollar is replaced entirely.
I see the momentum indicators shifting in various markets. Below is a brief summary of each, relevant indicators/markets. see charts.
US1YRBILLS
WTI CRUDE
SILVERUSD
BONKCOIN
TSLA
NVDA compared to Wall Street Cheat SheetThere are a lot of similarities with Wall St. Cheat sheet and current market cycle of NVDA, what do you think?
Middleas I said in the previous idea, we reached our goals of $40,000-$48,000.
After that, I expected a correction, and it happened, but very quickly. We saw the level of $38,500.
We are currently trading above $52,000.
What's next?
The next range of levels I would allocate is $58,000 – $69,000.
If a correction does occur, I would look at the following support levels:
$48,000–40,000–35,000–32,000
Long BTCUSDTCorrection wave 4 with structure W-X-Y-XX-Z of global bullish impulse seems to finish soon. It already reached 0.5 level of Fib of previous bullish wave 3. Now we expecting the final bullish wave 5 of current Bitcoin rally.
The only question that remains is how will altcoins behave?
Differentiate between rate cut and low interest rateNo important economic data from US this week, only trade balance and initial claims to observe on Tue and Thu respectively.
US stock market continued decline on Fri, following weakening labor market conditions and earnings from big tech companies last week.
In expectations of rate cut, big shots are reducing portfolios. The situation may last until we actually see the first rate cut in the cycle and longer.
The rise in stocks is usually associated with low interest rate, I would expect the adjustment in S&P to continue along the path of rate cut. So investors should differentiate between rate cut action and low interest rate, which are presented as two distinguished market conditions.
Bitcoin and the SQuare RooT (SQRT) Function: what followsEverything is on the graph : it's too early to go on a parabola.
Post Halving: BTC Loves Sep and OCTBTC is currently sitting just below 61K and is not ready for the next leg up. We have been stuck in consolidation since the recent ~73K high back in March 2024 and the logarithmic weekly charts shows that BTC has been trending in this rising channel since November 2022. Judging from the previous trends seen in the past two halving events (see below) we are likely to see a massive liquidity sell off prior to the next explosive move to new all-time highs.
We can very much continue consolidating within the current ~60k – 70k range but I think we need this sell off to happen in order to go higher. Big players like banks and institutions place massive orders and trade massive positions that drive price higher. Nothing fundamentally has changed and BTC is likely to see a new all-time high, but in order for that to happen, the big players require liquidity. I think we are due for one more sell off prior to new highs and the charts point towards a likely liquidity grab at around ~52K.
At that level I expect confluence from the 50 EMA to catch up to price and for 52k support to be retested along with trend line confluence from the rising channel.
This will place us roughly around Sep/Oct and BTC loves Sep and Oct.
Best of Luck!
Long trade
Sun 5th Aug 24
Buyside Trade
NY Session PM 3:12 pm (NY Time)
Entry: 1-minute TF
Entry: 58678.6
Profit Level: 58371.6 (2.72%)
Stop Level: 58881.1 (0.25%)
RR: 10.9
Target: TP2
Reason for Buyside Trade:
Observing trend shift and pivotal price zone highlighted (POI, Point of Interest) and mapping out ascending stages in buying pressure was the reason for the buyside trade.
Short trade Sat 3rd Aug 24
Tokyo Session AM
Sellside trade 2
Tokyo Session AM
21.00p m (NY Time)
Entry 60428.5
Profit level 58115.4 (3.83%)
Stop level 61110.5 (1.13%)
RR 3.39
Update....
The resilience of Bitcoin's price amidst economic downturn and stock market crashes highlights its potential role as a hedge and store of value. However, the overall decline in price and high volatility indicate that the cryptocurrency market is not entirely insulated from broader economic trends.
Forecast: Lower prices in my humble opinion.
$Bitcoin - Road to 100kI think this is the most realistic path to 100k when taking into account liquidity / engineering liquidity.
Based on the open wick ($23,275 O - $19,520 L )/ eq lows below ($24,745 ) I think price will gravitate back to that area as a bear market accumulation area. With that in mind, If I line up the 0.75 of the fib on the low of the wick --> eq.l's (~100k - 120k top).
XAUUSD: FUTURE PIVOT POINTSTry to catch these pivot points
TacTicTimeTraders is here to predict TIME for you
Bitcoin correction of at least 14%Bitcoin correction will be at least 52,000 in a 4-hour time frame, and in terms of time, we will have a floor or ceiling in 15 or 16 months.
EURUSD FUTURE PIVOT POINTSTry to catch these pivot points
TacTicTimeTraders is here to predict TIME for you.
BTCUSD: FUTURE PIVOT POINTSTry to catch these pivot points
TacTicTimeTraders is here to predict TIME for you
#Bitcoin 3 Phases Theory 🚦Today I saw a headline that surprised me "The current bear market has become the longest in the history of the crypto industry"📰
And I had a question about whether they were living in the past, or where they saw the bear market.🤔
💡I want to remind you that it ended with a duration of exactly one year, just like the last cycle. And it was much shorter than in 2014.
Now CRYPTOCAP:BTC is +70% from the bottom, this is a classic phase of accumulation.
Short trade
Sat 3rd Aug 24
Tokyo Session AM
Sellside
Tokyo Session AM
2:45 am (NY Time)
Entry: 61544.8
Profit Level: 58073.9 (5.64%)
Stop Level: 61848.5 (0.49%)
RR: 11.43
News driver: Bitcoin Price Update
The Fear and Greed Index for Bitcoin, which reflects the general sentiment in the market, indicates a moderate level of fear, suggesting cautious sentiment among investors. Here are the key points based on the provided information:
Bitcoin Price and Market Statistics:
Price: £48,203.96
24-Hour Change: -4.11%
Market Cap: £951,301,309,285.94
Circulating Supply: 19,734,921 BTC
Max Supply: 21,000,000 BTC
24-Hour Trading Volume: £42 billion
Economic Indicators and Stock Market:
Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: The Fed aims to balance maximum employment with stable prices.
Recession Signals: Indications that the US may already be in a recession.
Unemployment Rate: 4.3%
Stock Market: Significant crash resulting in a loss of £3 trillion in value.
Bitcoin Resilience: Despite the economic downturn and stock market crash, Bitcoin's price has shown resilience, holding relatively well.
Conclusion
The resilience of Bitcoin's price amidst economic downturn and stock market crashes highlights its potential role as a hedge and store of value. However, the overall decline in price and high volatility indicate that the cryptocurrency market is not entirely insulated from broader economic trends.
Forecast - lower prices in my humble opinion.?
GBP JPY - not over yet on the weekly TFMaster Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily)
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Weekly zone
Monthly
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Focus on investing for long term positional moves
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
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LVPA MMXXIV
Ethereum Keltner Channel 👀ETH reached local resistance in the form of the red zone of the channel, faster than the last cycle.
What does this tell us? The consolidation before the next move may be longer.
🤔Most will say that ETH has not reached ATH yet, so it should go up right now, I can say that ETH mostly lags in taking past highs and does it sometime after that like Bitcoin did.
💡And the phase of more active growth is at the end of the cycle, so be patient and the market will thank you with a profit.
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis Expecting Nikkei (NKD) to Extend Short Term Elliott Wave in Nikkei (NKD) suggests the Index shows short term incomplete bearish sequence from 7.10.2024 high favoring further downside. Decline from 7.10.2024 is in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 7.10.2024 high, wave (W) ended at 37395. Rally in wave (X) ended at 39318 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Up from wave (W), wave A ended at 38785 and wave B ended at 37395. Wave C higher ended at 39318 which completed wave (X) in higher degree.
The Index has turned lower in wave (Y) with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Down from wave (X), wave ((i)) ended at 37405 and wave ((ii)) ended at 38010. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 36465 and wave ((iv)) ended at 36920. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 36165 which completed wave A in higher degree. Wave B rally is in progress to correct cycle from 7.31.2024 high before it turns lower. Near term, while below 39318, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (W). This area comes at 30932 – 34135 where buyers can appear for further upside, or 3 waves rally at least.
