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Economic Cycles

Yield Curve Reversion Trade 2024The yield curve reversion is when the US10Y Treasury Yield becomes greater than the US2Y Treasury Yield and has a track record for signalling recession. I've been tracking the reversion for the past two years for any hint of sense of whether the US FED would cut FEDFUNDS rates or if bond traders would drive yields/prices towards reversion. This time, the fed's narrative is driving the reaction here. To express this idea I've put on long CBOT_MINI:10Y1! and short CBOT_MINI:2YY1! via the futures market. I'll keep rolling the futures contracts until the yield curve starts to form a top, likely a spread value between 1.5-3.0.
FRED:T10Y2YLong
by pb0316
Crypto Alternatives Reaching Extremes Please study and look back on the history of CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.D This trendline has acted as major support with each touch marking key reversal points of alts before moves higher or at the very least moving away from their lows. Light blue is CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS with the grey boxes marking the touch points and the yellow vertical lines being the BTC halving dates. I believe we are here in the cycle with regards to alts and BTC: Last cycle we had a shorter bottom base and accumulation period followed by a longer consolidation period before the halving. This time around we see longer bottom base and somewhat shorter consolidation period these past 5 months. The white dashed line marks the mid line of the bottom base and then price recovering back into the high liquidity/ consolidation zone. And it just so happens that we're in a better setup this time around than last cycle imo. Super HTF head and shoulders: 2019: 2024: Current BTC outlook: IMO any bids of strong alts or only the majors in this 1.5T to 2T zone is a great entry. You can see I included the google trend plot for the search "bitcoin" which is good gauge of sentiment, interest, and tops/ bottoms. Buy when no one is talking about it or cares. Sell when interest peaks and everyone is talking about it. A lot left in this cycle IMO but it will take some time for things to play out.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.DLong
by bhx10
1
Simple Bitcoin analysis (Long Term) Higher no matter what?Let's keep things simple on a daily since the chart patterns seem to make the most sense here. As you can see when Bitcoin formed a double top on the daily it was all downhill from there. Now it is forming a cup and handle pattern on the daily time frame - So it will most likely just be massively up from here. Don't say I didn't warn you that the TA should be kept simple when trying to guess long-term moving averages. Pay attention to the support line I drew. BTC will never go below this line. If it does I will delete my account.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by RetiredNovice
6
Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 & Federal Funds Rate 1998 vs 2024A Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 SP:SPX and Federal Funds Rate - 1998 vs. 2024 Historical Context: (the lower chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 1994-2004) 1998: - On September 29, the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate from 5.5% to 5.25% - The interest cuts fueled the tech bubble, leading to a sharp rise in the S&P 500 over the next two years - By 1999, as the Fed started increasing rates again, this contributed to the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000 Current Scenario: (the upper chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 2020-2030) 2024: - The federal funds rate now stands between 5.25-5.5% - Anticipation is high for a rate cut on September 18, possibly by 25 or 50 basis points, mirroring the scenario of 1998 - Today, instead of a tech bubble, we're witnessing the emergence of an AI bubble Future Speculations: - AI Bubble Expansion: With the FED potentially lowering rates, this could accelerate the AI bubble, propelling the S&P 500 to new heights over the next 1-2 years - Inflation Concerns: Lower interest rates might reignite inflation by 2025. If history repeats, the Fed might then hike rates again, risking a burst of the AI bubble post-2025 Conclusion: While this analysis draws parallels with historical data, it remains speculative However, the pattern aligns with economic cycles, particularly the 18-year property cycle and the broader economic super cycle that began in 2008 -> Do you think this scenario is realistic?
SP:SPX
by OfficerDonut
2
Inflation, 2yr-bond yield, fund rate, unemployment, recessions The chart illustrates how five key economic indicators—Inflation, 2-Year Bond Yield, Federal Funds Rate, Unemployment Rate, and Recessions—compare across different time periods or economic conditions. 1. Inflation: This line or bar typically shows the rate at which prices for goods and services rise, leading to a decrease in purchasing power. Inflation is crucial for understanding cost-of-living adjustments and purchasing power. The chart might indicate periods of high or low inflation and how it correlates with other indicators. 2. 2-Year Bond Yield: This line represents the interest rate on 2-year government bonds, which reflects investor expectations for short-term economic conditions and interest rates. A higher yield often suggests expectations of rising interest rates or inflation, while a lower yield might indicate expectations of economic stagnation or lower rates. 3. Federal Funds Rate: This rate, set by the Federal Reserve, influences overall economic activity by affecting borrowing costs. Changes in the Federal Funds Rate can signal the Fed’s stance on monetary policy, with increases often aiming to combat inflation and decreases aiming to stimulate growth. 4. Unemployment Rate: This line measures the percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. It provides insights into labor market conditions and economic health. High unemployment typically indicates economic distress, while low unemployment suggests a robust job market. 5. Recessions: Recessions are usually marked as shaded regions or periods on the chart. They indicate times when economic activity is declining, often accompanied by rising unemployment and decreasing inflation. The chart might show how other indicators like inflation and bond yields behave during recessions. Comparative Insights: Correlation: By comparing these indicators, the chart helps identify patterns, such as how rising inflation might correlate with higher bond yields and Federal Funds Rates. Economic Cycles: It shows how these indicators respond to economic cycles, including periods of expansion and recession. For example, during recessions, inflation might decrease, bond yields might fall, and unemployment might rise. Policy Impacts: The chart may also highlight the impact of monetary policy changes (reflected in the Federal Funds Rate) on inflation and unemployment.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by creengrack