Next Alt sessionBTC.D tends to drop right after its halving cycle; this may be the last altcoin season.
Economic Cycles
BITCOIN UPDATE 2025 | ALTSEASON | BTC.DWe'll kick of the first analysis of the new year by taking a look at BTC, and whether or not the conditions are met to say the ATH is in.
Furthermore, let's loo at altseason by comparing the TOTAL3 chart and the Bitcoin Dominance chart. Many secrets lie in these charts if you overlap them, and look for patterns.
Soon, I will be making an update on the top Altcoins to watch in 2025 so be sure to follow so you don't miss it!
__________________
IWM | Incoming Bull Run | LONGiShares Russell 2000 ETF seeks to track the investment results of the Russell 2000 Index, which measures the performance of the small-capitalization sector of the U.S. equity market. The fund generally invests at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of its underlying index (i.e., depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index) and may invest up to 20% of its assets in certain futures, options and swap contracts, cash and cash equivalents.
Pattern suggests tough sledding for USDHere's a look at the strength of the U.S. Dollar over the last 3+ decades.
I'm not here to talk about politics, nor am I interested in discussing the effects of economic policy on the value of the U.S. Dollar. Frankly, I don't really care. What I am interested in are patterns, and I think this one is interesting enough to share.
Sure, this time around could be different, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
Potential Bond Duration Spread - 'Riding The Yield Curve'I expect short-dated treasury yields to drop, increasing their price
ie. buy short-dated treausries
could also go short ultras but my view is that yields will slowly come down across the board so I will not be buying the spread
COT positioning shows commercials favour shorter duration bonds
$BTC Cheat Sheet They Don't Want You To See!THE CRYPTO CHEAT SHEET
After seeing this, don't let anyone tell you that trading the market is hard.
All you need is a 4-year mindset.
Sell in November (the latest) post-halving year, ie 2025
Buy in November the year after, ie 2026
It really is that simple.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC 👑
USD/JPY Short using a GANN Fixed Square & Andrews PitchforksWe have an interesting short setup on the Daily. The highest candle printed was on the 26th Dec 2024 (UTC+2). Although it wasn't a nice 'Signal' candle it has traded sideways ever since. From a technical/geometric lens we can see heavy resistance against the angles and arcs of this perfectly scaled Gann Fixed Square including 2 median line touches and a "sliding parallel" exhaustion gap. Note: The 26th Dec from an Astro perspective has very interesting planetary alignments including a Price and Time Square Out, however, the details of this is beyond the scope of this idea. Inevitably the market will decide.
SQ | Why Wallstreet is Bullish | LONGBlock, Inc. engages in creating ecosystems for distinct customer audiences. It operates through the Square and Cash App segments. The Square segment provides businesses the ability to accept card payments. The Cash App segment offers an ecosystem of financial products and services to help consumers manage their money. The company was founded by Jack Patrick Dorsey and James Morgan McKelvey in February 2009 and is headquartered in Oakland, CA.
doge buylimit "🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Long trade
15min
Buyside trade 1
Pair BTCUSDT
Tokyo Session PM
Mon 30th Dec 24
5.00 pm
Entry 92437.9
Profit level 99899.3 (8.07%)
Stop level 91750.6 (0.74%)
RR 10.86
Reason: I assumed BTC had reached a pivotal demand zone on December 30th, 2024, as well as making a lower low since the 20th of December 2024 (look left) the current price action reflected in it seemed indicative of a buy-side trade. Target 100k for ultimate risk to reward following the narrative and seeing directional bias continuation to the upside.
New Territory.I had an idea that at the peak of this cycle the entire market would
hit the $10 trillion mark with a distribution of $4 trillion Bitcoin,
$2 trillion Etherium and $4 trillion TOTAL3.
After calculating the percentages of past growth,
I transferred it to current conditions and if this is executed, it's even 5 trillion.
$BTC Cycle Elliot Wave AnalysisMore confluence on why this CRYPTOCAP:BTC cycle will perform similar to 2017 vs 2021.
If we look at Elliot Wave theory, we can see the first cycle (red) had a long 3rd wave and somewhat truncated 5th wave.
The second cycle (green) had a muted 3rd wave and extended 5th wave.
The third cycle performed similar to the first, which makes me believe the fourth cycle will perform similar to the second cycle.
It appears the ₿itcoin cycle flip-flops every other time.
*NOTE* I used Closing Candles for when drawing EW to cancel out noise.
**EW drawings are extremely subjective, hence why I don’t use often for analysis.
Long trade
15min TF overview
Pair SUSHIUSDT
Buyside trade 2
Fri 3rd Jan 25
6.00 am
Tokyo to LND Session AM
Entry 1.4785
Profit level 2.2573 (52.86%)
Stop level 1.4408 (2.55%)
RR 20.66
The thought process for buyside trade:
Price reached a critical price level along with buyside momentum observed on the 5nin TF. As well as seeing BTCUSDT play out to the buyside on the 30th of December 24, I assumed it was a reflection of directional bias and influence on this occasion for a buyside trade with SUSHIUSDT.
PEPE Ready for Rebound after Multi-Week HiatusMarket update on COINBASE:PEPEUSD
After a multi-week downtrend, PEPE looks like it is signaling an entry into breakout territory on the 4h view here. Look for some heavy waves during the next days or week timeframe, as there are many whales dumping millions into the market right now, ready to take blood in the choppy waters ahead. The overall trend should continue to rebound into positive territory now that the consolidation and down waves are signaling they are done here as two green indicators have popped on our chart, signaling entry now, or when you have the liquidity from resolving other open trades.
In other news, watch out for COINBASE:PRIMEUSD which is also indicating a strong buy signal right now. There could also be potential synergy between PEPE and COINBASE:GIGAUSD meme markets where profits could be diverted from PEPE to GIGAchad empire for new Power Gym and Rolexes.
Remember Habibi, never look for financial advice in camel's ass.
The desert tests your will, not your strength.
Viva El Pepe!
BTC.DOM is going lowerIdk what these triangles do but if it follows previos clycle we will return to the 45-40 % when that happens i will reduce my position.
suiusdtlong"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Alt Season: The Calm Before the Storm?Hi fellow traders, Crypto21Official here! 🚀
After a strong impulse in the crypto market, we’ve had a teaser of what could be an alt season. The crypto market cap chart (excluding the top 10) showed a beautiful surge to $450 billion, a key level that marked the recent high.
Since then, we’ve retraced around 27%, and the downtrend appears to be losing momentum. Right now, we’re dipping into a key buy zone, where I’ve marked a potential double-bottom pattern. If confirmed, this could signal a bullish reversal and set the stage for further growth.
On the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, we still see room for dominance to rise slightly before a healthy decline could pave the way for a full-blown alt season. Historically, such patterns have preceded explosive altcoin growth.
Why Could January Be a Game-Changer?
Tax-Loss Harvesting Rebound: As the year ends, investors often sell assets to optimize for tax benefits. By January, these funds tend to flow back into the market, sparking renewed interest.
U.S. Election Cycle Momentum: Political developments surrounding the U.S. election cycle could act as a macro catalyst, influencing risk-on markets like crypto.
Historical Patterns: As we’ve seen before:
Bitcoin typically leads the market with a strong rally.
Altcoins dip or consolidate.
Then, altcoins blast off, following Bitcoin’s momentum. 🚀
My Take
I remain bullish, expecting January to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin, which could open the floodgates for altcoins to follow. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Let’s see if the market plays along. 🌕
What are your thoughts? Are we on the brink of something big? Let me know below! 👇
Uranium Sector: Bullish OutlookThe uranium mining sector appears to possibly have found its bottom.
Since September 2024, many uranium stocks have formed comparable Elliott Wave 1-2 structures.
The Wave 2 correction may now be complete, positioning the charts for a potential surge as the anticipated Wave 3 begins.
In my eyes, the following companies are the hottest prospects:
Energy Fuels Inc. and Uranum Energy Corp. are the first uranium companies in the US, which already are in production. They will money-wise profit immediately from the growing demand for Nuclear Energy in America.
Uranium Energy (UEC) has the highest possible and licensed production capacity in the US (12.1 M lbs Uranium per year) and will probably be the biggest US-Player.
Here is the UEC-Chart:
Denison Mines Corp. and Nexgen Energy Ltd. are uranuim mining companies, which engage in exploration and development. They both have very high grade ressources, but they wont go into production for at least 2-3 years. Either way the market seems not to be bothered by this circumstance. The future success of their projects is getting priced in heavily.
Here are the two charts:
Uranium Royalty Corp. (URC) is the first and only Royalty-Company in the Uranium sector. They are also holding Physical-Uranium as an investment, anticipating higher uranium prices in the fututre. The companie has connections to Uranium Energy and the whole management is very experienced. I think they as well are in a great position, to profit from a Uranium-Bullrun.
Here is the URC-Chart:
Bitcoin: Entering New Presidential CycleCharts are essential, but it’s equally important to stay aware of major events that can significantly impact markets. Alongside this, I’ll share some theoretical insights.
Market During Presidencies:
The chart tracks the S&P 500’s growth on a logarithmic scale, highlighting U.S. presidential terms by party since 1933. Blue areas represent Democrat presidencies, and red areas indicate Republican presidencies. It shows that the market has grown steadily over time, despite fluctuations tied to economic cycles, policies, and global events. Key trends include significant growth during Clinton and Obama presidencies (dot-com boom, post-2008 recovery) and slower growth during Nixon and Carter presidencies. The chart also reflects recent market gains under Trump and Biden, despite challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, it demonstrates consistent long-term market growth under both political parties, driven by a mix of policies and external factors.
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE
"Presidential Cycle" in trading refers to a theory that financial markets tend to follow a recurring pattern tied to the four-year term of U.S. presidential administrations. This cycle is based on the idea that government policies and political events during a president’s term can influence economic conditions and market behavior in predictable ways.
PHASES:
Post-Election Year
Stock Market: New or re-elected presidents introduce reforms that may unsettle markets. Slower growth and higher volatility are common as policies stabilize.
₿ Market:
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant growth following U.S. presidential elections. For instance, after the 2016 election, Bitcoin’s price increased by over 2,500% in the subsequent year.
Potential Impact:
The resolution of electoral uncertainty typically restores market stability. Additionally, newly introduced policies can foster investor confidence, making alternative assets like Bitcoin more appealing. If these policies are crypto-friendly, they could accelerate Bitcoin adoption and drive price appreciation.
Midterm Year
Stock Market: Midterm elections create political uncertainty, often causing market corrections. The second half of the year typically sees recovery as clarity improves.
₿ Market:
Bitcoin may experience corrections or slower growth during midterm years. For example, in 2018, Bitcoin’s price declined significantly, aligning with the midterm election period.
Potential Impact:
Midterm elections can lead to shifts in political power, creating regulatory uncertainty for the crypto market. This could deter institutional investors or slow Bitcoin’s momentum. However, as the political landscape becomes clearer, the market could stabilize, potentially paving the way for future growth.
Pre-Election Year
Stock Market: Historically the strongest year, with administrations boosting the economy. Market-friendly policies lead to stronger performance and public support.
₿ Market:
Pre-election years have often been bullish for Bitcoin. In 2019, Bitcoin’s price saw substantial gains, rising from around $3,700 in January to over $13,000 by June.
Potential Impact:
Increased government spending and the anticipation of policy changes often stimulate economic activity, benefiting risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This optimism can lead to higher investor participation and significant price increases as the market factors in favorable policy expectations.
Election Year
Stock Market: Election uncertainty heightens volatility, but clarity post-election boosts markets. Performance depends on the perceived business-friendliness of leading candidates.
₿ Market:
Bitcoin has shown mixed reactions during election years. In 2020, despite initial volatility, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high post-election, suggesting that the resolution of political uncertainty can positively influence its price.
Potential Impact:
The election outcome often dictates the regulatory direction for cryptocurrencies. A pro-crypto administration could fuel optimism and attract new investors, while stricter regulations could introduce headwinds. Regardless, the post-election clarity often drives market confidence, benefiting Bitcoin’s valuation.
Chronological Flow of Events Fueling Bitcoin’s Exponential Growth
Shift to CFTC Regulation
Trump proposed moving crypto regulation from the SEC to the CFTC, creating a friendlier environment to foster innovation and boost investor confidence.
Institutional and Retail Adoption
Bitcoin became accessible through retirement accounts and ETFs, driving demand from both institutions and retail investors.
Market Sentiment and Musk’s Influence
Endorsements from Elon Musk (Trump's circle) sparked optimism, fueling rallies and increasing crypto adoption.
Geopolitical Competition
The U.S. aimed to lead the crypto space, countering China’s dominance and stabilizing Bitcoin’s market.
Trump’s Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
A proposed U.S. Bitcoin reserve would position it alongside gold, boosting demand and global legitimacy.
J.D. Vance’s Proposal to Devalue the U.S. Dollar
Vance’s plan to weaken the dollar to boost exports contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21m coins, which makes it an inflation-resistant alternative to fiat currencies. Bitcoin’s finite supply and decentralized nature make it a strong hedge during monetary policy uncertainty, further solidifying its role as a store of value. Vance’s proposal inadvertently highlights the vulnerabilities of fiat currencies, positioning Bitcoin as a compelling alternative in a volatile economic landscape.
Holiday Effect
Bitcoin’s performance is influenced by alignment of market sentiment, economic factors, and geopolitical events with holiday seasonality known as the “holiday effect” during major holidays like Christmas and New Year.
🏛️ FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve operates independently of the President and Congress, focusing on economic goals like controlling inflation, maintaining employment, and ensuring stability. While the President appoints members to the Board of Governors, these appointments require Senate confirmation and fixed terms, insulating monetary policy from political influence. This structure safeguards long-term economic stability and credibility.
Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance faces significant challenges due to the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and cautious approach to cryptocurrencies. The Fed has historically expressed skepticism about decentralized assets, citing concerns over financial stability, regulatory risks, and potential misuse. Instead, it prioritizes initiatives like Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), such as a digital dollar, which could compete with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
This divergence underscores a conflict of goals: pro-crypto policies encourage innovation and adoption, while the Fed views decentralized cryptocurrencies as a challenge to its control over monetary policy and the U.S. dollar’s global reserve currency status. Additionally, the Fed collaborates with other regulatory agencies, like the SEC and Treasury, which have traditionally taken a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies.
Ultimately, while Trump’s policies may boost private crypto adoption and innovation, the Federal Reserve’s focus on financial stability and its own priorities, like CBDCs, limits the broader impact of these policies. This highlights the difficulty of aligning political aspirations with the Fed’s institutional priorities.
ATOM BULLISH IDEA-Price rejected strongly at the long-term trendline, indicating a potential bearish momentum if the support levels fail.
-The 6.20 level has emerged as solid support, holding up price action for now.
-On the hourly chart, price action shows accumulation near the 6.20 support level, suggesting that buying interest is building up.
injusdt buy"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟
We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎
Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫
Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭
Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
$COOKIE reminds me $SUSHI... this will be HUGE.Get ready for an explosive move! The recent patterns in $COOKIE are reminiscent of the incredible CRYPTOCAP:SUSHI rally we witnessed last year. With similar market conditions and strong community backing, I predict a potential rise of over 7000% .
Don't miss out on this opportunity – it's time to ride the wave and see your investments soar to new heights!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions."
ETHUSD , I like This , is Bullish until 4,400ETHUSD , The price has reached 50% of the previous swing, and has entered a discount! It has the potential to rise to 4,400.
