Buy idea on Crude Oil (CL1!)Based on :
- US10Y Leading long spike
- Commercials and Non Commercials at Extremes
- Open Interest at Extremes
- Cycles and quantitative data
- Undervalued conditions
-Demand zone
Economic Cycles
SUI: History Rhyming? A Potential 118% Repeat Pattern in PlayKEY POINTS:
- SUI/USDT previously formed a consolidation pattern with structured higher lows.
- This setup led to a strong breakout rally, resulting in a 118% price increase.
- The current price action is showing a very similar consolidation and breakout structure.
- A projected move could mirror the previous breakout, targeting a similar 118% gain.
- Key resistance levels overhead could act as major targets if the pattern plays out.
- Although history appears to be repeating, no two market cycles are exactly the same — caution is advised.
Traders should closely monitor for confirmation signs and always apply proper risk management. #paldogs
DOTUSDTIt should be at $6 and then a correction and a rally to $12 and then a stronger correction and finally a major rally to $24.210
Market geometry is doing its job
$USDT.D Cycle Top ProjectionI could see CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D playing out like this.
This November data also coincides with my BTC Cycle Thesis in November.
Lotsa other macro factors and indicators at play for a cycle top, but this lines up nicely and where I'll be taking a heavy chunk of profits.
Us30 Upward or downward?In the 5-minute timeframe, you can sell at the top of the trading range and buy at the bottom of the trading range (by observing reversal candles and patterns).
Alternatively, you can wait for a breakout and enter in the direction of the breakout.
Be mindful of fake breakouts
GBPUSD AnalysisGBP could potentially start its next bearish leg from the current level.
Price has reacted off a lower timeframe IFVG, which is currently acting as support.
If we get a clean close below this IFVG, along with proper short confirmation,
I'll be looking for bearish setups to target lower levels
Bitcoin Cycle Update – Are We Nearing the Peak?Check out this BTCUSDT chart – we’re at GETTEX:92K today, and seems like things are heating up!
▸We’ve seen a Cycle Bottom in late 2022 - early 2023, followed by strong Bull runs in 2023 and 2024.
▸Those Consolidation phases (sideways channels) gave us the perfect setup for massive pumps!
▸Right now, we’re in a Pause Triangle after a big rally – but the Cycle Top could be just around the corner in mid-2025.
▸After that? A potential Bear phase – time to plan your moves!
💡 What’s your strategy? Are you riding this wave to the top, or preparing for the next dip? Let’s discuss 📨
Enphase power and Amazon comparison from 1999
The similarities are very striking from Amazon's IPO into the 1999 Dot Com speculative bubble and the bust afterwards. History could be repeating itself. This is the EV/Solar bubble. The tech revolution is already played out. Now the S curve will be solar panels on everyone's homes and commercial buildings. The big buying opportunity could be coming.
$BTC Tracks $GOLD Very Closely With 12-Week LeadCould it really be this simple?
Maybe we can just throw Global M2 out the window and track TVC:GOLD with a 12-Week Lead.
Someone pointed this out to me yesterday when I posted Gold's near 1/1 tracking with Global M2.
*Note the deviation in CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA from the ETF hype.
BTC reach his topElliot wave count + Fibonacci time line shows btc gonna enter to a bear market soon
Bitcoin Aligns with the 2017 Cycle ModelThere’s growing speculation that the current Bitcoin cycle mirrors the market behavior seen in 2017.
Intrigued by this, I conducted my own analysis. I overlaid the 2014–2017 cycle pattern onto the current chart for comparison.
The results?
A striking resemblance in both the overall shape and the distinct correction and impulse phases.
It seems history may not repeat itself exactly, but it certainly rhymes. 📊
BTC Intraday Cycle ClustersThese are mathematically calculated cycle clusters based on hourly price and time data.
Cycle clusters can signal potential shifts in price action, including:
Changes in direction
Momentum shifts (acceleration or deceleration)
Breakouts
Gaps
Bold vertical lines indicate periods where more cycles are clustered. Dashed lines reflect clusters with fewer overlapping cycles.
I've also added some charting work—mainly channels—to help visualize and potentially trade the price movement between clusters and between channel lines.
Questions are welcome!
BTC Analysis - Bullish BiasMy current outlook on Bitcoin remains bullish, anticipating a move towards higher price levels.
I am specifically watching for the potential formation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Should an FVG form, I will be looking for price to potentially retrace and touch this gap.
Upon a successful interaction with the FVG, my expectation is for price to then continue its ascent towards the higher levels I have marked on my chart.
I am focusing on identifying confirmed long opportunities based on this potential FVG setup and retest.
Trade safe!
$GOLD Continues to Move in Lockstep With Global M2It's amazing how accurate TVC:GOLD follows Global M2 with NO LEAD.
Near instant liquidity injection into the asset as the money supply rises 🪙
I do not see the price of Gold falling until Global M2 does.
GBPUSD Analysis with ICT ConceptsMy current outlook on the British Pound is bearish, with an expectation of lower levels in the near term.
A key level I am anticipating price to reach is the Weekly Open, which has not yet been touched.
Yesterday's price action seems to be confirming this potential move towards the Weekly Open.
Therefore, I am actively looking for confirmed short position opportunities to align with this view.
Trade safe!
COTI WAVE 3 is coming COTI has completed its initial phases, Wave 1, 2 of Elliot waves and is preparing for Wave 3📈.
Also COTI V2, released recently, aims to revolutionize web3 privacy.
COTI’s market capitalization is $96 million, suggesting substantial potential gains during the upcoming bull market🚀.
This information is not financial advice. Conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
[ TimeLine ] Gold 14 April 2025Hello everyone,
📅 Today is Monday, April 14, 2025
I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as key reference points for potential trade entries:
📌 April 14, 2025 (Monday)
📌 April 14 & 15, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday)
🧠 Trading Plan:
✅ Wait for the price range to form from the above candles (marked with green lines).
✅ Trade entry will be triggered if price breaks out of the range , including a 60-pip buffer.
✅ If price reverses and hits Stop Loss (SL) , we will cut/switch the position and double the size to recover losses on the next entry.
📉📈 Chart Reference:
🔗 Copy and paste this code in your TradingView URL:
TV/x/ZYrPFZTC/
BTC/USD - The Bitcoin Cycle TopBTC has recently broken below a key uptrend line that had been guiding price for some time. I’m watching for a potential backtest of that broken trendline, a rather classic move that could set the stage for a final upwards squeeze, possibly printing a quick higher high to trap late longs.
I’m watching the circled area closely as a potential exhaustion zone. Key levels and price action around the trendline will be critical, breaking of upwards trendlines after backtesting may mark the beginning of the larger unwind.
We could see multiple backtests of the broken trendline over time, with the trendline now likely acting as resistance.
Note: I’m publishing this idea simply to have a timestamped record. This post is my way of putting a clear marker in the sand. I’m not looking to debate or go deeper into the reasoning, and I generally won’t be responding to comments.
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Risk IndicatorIn this idea, I’ll walk you through the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Risk Indicator — a tool based on the well-known Pi Cycle Top Indicator.
By the end, we’ll have a new lens to analyze INDEX:BTCUSD market cycles. 👇
First, a quick recap of the original Pi Cycle Top Indicator. It uses two moving averages:
— 111-day MA (111DMA)
— 350-day MA × 2 (350DMA x 2)
A bullish crossover (111DMA crossing above 350DMA×2) historically predicted BTC tops within 3 days.
However, one sould know that in 2021 the signal occurred in April (the first peak). The higher November peak didn’t trigger the indicator.
Now let’s take the ratio: 111DMA / (350DMA × 2) → this gives us the Pi Cycle Top Ratio (orange line). When the ratio crosses 1 from below, that’s equivalent to the original Pi Cycle Top signal.
As you can see: each new major peak is lower than the previous. In 2021, the ratio barely touched 1. This implies that in this cycle, the moving averages may not cross — and Pi Cycle Top Indicator may not generate a signal .
Can we forecast the next peak of the Ratio? (Keep in mind: Ratio peaks ≠ BTC price peaks but we'll get back to it later.)
Turns out the Ratio peaks fit nicely along a logarithmic curve — let’s plot it. And the lows sit on a straight line. We add both bounds, plus a midline.
Now we have a band within which the Ratio tends to move — useful for anticipating turning points.
Next, let’s normalize the Ratio within this band:
— bottom bound = 0
— top bound = 1
This gives us the Pi Cycle Top Risk indicator — a clean, scaled version of market risk.
Currently, it sits at 0.47 , right around the mid-range.
Now let’s compare Pi Cycle Top Risk to past BTC tops and bottoms (using daily closes).
We’ll treat April 2021 as the last cycle top.
The chart shows:
— BTC tops occurred when Risk ≥ 0.79
— Bottoms occurred when Risk ≤ 0.24 (or ≤ 0.10 excluding 2011)
Summary:
1. Right now, Pi Cycle Top Risk ≈ 0.47 and has been hovering near 0.5 for the past year.
This reflects a relatively low volatility during this market cycle — BTC has been rising steadily, with pauses for consolidation, no mania phase and blow-off top.
2. How can we use this going forward?
I can’t say whether the Risk will rise or fall — and there’s no guarantee it’ll hit the boundaries.
But if it's ever:
— Above 0.9 (bright-red zone) → strong signal to consider selling
— Below 0.1 (bright-green zone) → potentially good buy opportunities
Not financial advice.
We’ll keep tracking it.
Will Nasdaq Test Liquidity at 17,800 Before an Upside Move?NASDAQ is experiencing bearish slow down at the support level for the past 3 weeks. A re-test of the recent low looks imminent. and if price could be rejected after clearing H4 liquidity at 17,800, then we could see a sharp upside move.
Key risks: Fed commentary, major tech earnings, and geopolitical headlines.
N.B!
- NASDAQ price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#nq!
#nasdaq
Natural gas bullish?With elliot wave and possible time-cycle, there is a strong possibility of a strong upmove as long as price convincingly stays above current lows.
Altseason and a Weak Dollar — Will History Repeat in 2025?The altseason of 2017 started at the same time as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) began to fall. This likely helped bring more money into the crypto market. In 2020–2021, a similar thing happened: the falling dollar was followed by a strong rise in altcoins. But that time, altseason started closer to the end of the dollar’s decline.
A weaker dollar makes risky assets like crypto more attractive. In April 2020, the total crypto market cap was around $218 billion. Today, it’s about $2.63 trillion — around 12 times bigger.
However, to start a new altseason now, the market may need a lot more cheap money than in 2020. I’m not sure if the 2025 altseason can be as strong as in the past.
Now it seems that the only way to repeat that success is if a big part of the capital moves from Bitcoin into altcoins. This would need a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance. But this brings new questions. After the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the ownership structure has changed. Many people now own Bitcoin through investment funds, not directly. These funds may not be very excited to invest in altcoins.
What do you think about it? Share your opinion in the comments.
Master Forex Trading with ICT Kill Zones (2024 Guide)The forex market runs 24/5, but not all hours are equally profitable. ICT Kill Zones highlight the 4 most volatile trading windows where institutional activity creates prime opportunities.
ICT Kill Zones Timetable (GMT/EST)
Asian: 8PM - 10PM EST / 12AM - 2AM GMT
London: 2AM - 5AM EST / 6AM - 9AM GMT
New York: 7AM - 9AM EST / 11AM - 1PM GMT
London Close: 10AM - 12PM EST / 2PM - 4PM GMT
Key Characteristics:
Asian Session
Best for AUD, NZD, JPY pairs
Low volatility; ideal for 15-20 pip scalps
London Session
Highest liquidity (trade EUR/GBP)
Often sets daily highs/lows
New York Session
Overlap with London creates high volatility
Focus on USD pairs (e.g., USD/CAD)
London Close
Price retracements to daily range
Quick 15-20 pip reversal plays
