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Economic Cycles

Agree to disagree... Gold is topping right now.My price path seen above is a complete guess but it stems from long term trend lines and more importantly order flow from last week. On Thursday there was a #1 trade on AMEX:PHYS for $200+ Million at the green levels in my chart above (Equivalent levels). PRICE WILL 100% go to my green lines by end of this week 04/25. We are over shooting the dark pool sale but a lot, however, this is always to trap retail and create fomo/peak fear. In the correction/recession cycles, gold ALWAYS TOPS LAST before the crash...
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LeapTrades
7
[ TimeLine ] Gold 5-6 May 2025📅 Today is Friday, May 2, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: May 5, 2025 (Monday) or May 5 & 6, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday) 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes: ✅ Gold has undergone a significant reversal of over 2000 pips, from its ATH of 3500 down to 3200 ⚠️ If the upcoming Hi-Lo range is wide, consider reversal entries or setups based on Fibonacci retracement levels ✅ I will personally be trading both signals as part of my research and ongoing strategy ⚠️ If you're risk-averse or uncertain, it’s okay to skip the May 5–6 signals 📋 Execution Plan: 🔹 Wait for the price range from the selected candles to fully form (marked by green lines on the chart) 🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, including a 60-pip buffer 🔹 If SL is hit, cut/switch and double the position on the next valid setup for potential recovery 📉📈 Chart Reference: 🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL: TV/x/C5zZyXar/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
EUR/USD Breakdown - Lesson in IDMTook a Loss here by misreading IDM on the 4H. Price was Breaking Highs, so I leaned bullish, but didn't wait for that full IDM sequence to confirm. Lesson: Take a few extra minutes to read the Higher TimeFrames Properly. No Rush. This week's blueprint is simple: patience, clean structure, strong inducement first. Also noting pair correlations: XAU/USD, EU, AND GU tend to move together. GJ/UJ on their own rhythm. #SmartMoneyConcepts #IDM #ForexDiscipline #ChartStudy #GrowthMindset
Long
by Juicemannn
BTC Elliott wave analysis 5/9/2025 (Big Picture)For me, I think that we are going to the End the wave 5 of the BTC Supercycle . As you can see , the wave that we are now have very small accumulation making it should be wave 5 rather than the begining of new cycle or the correction wave since both usually have large accumulation.The Gann fan suggest that the End of the wave 5 should be around 128,000$-132,000$. And after the time that it finish the wave 5 it would be coincided with the depression that many economist suggest that it would happen.Surprisingly, It also coinside with the Modern Elliott Wave theory suggesting that a Grand Supercycle wave five is nearing completion in the 21st century, likely leading to the deepest economic downturn since the 1700s.
Long
by jirapattinn
Temporal Aspect of FractalityIn this publication, I would like to bring some clarity to the series of my unconventional analysis. At this stage of my research I have no doubt that market's natural growth patterns can be defined by historic range and power exponents of Phi. Essentially, it's just two overall fib channels that cover structural boundaries of bullruns from ATH to new ATH mapped to bottom as 3rd coordinate. When we have angle of fibs derived from chronological highs, the ratios would cover the levels of oscillation from price scale perspective. Whereas the temporal aspect of fractality, requires looking for frequency of reversals in price dynamics. So instead of connecting pivots of same classification, we interconnect opposite points of extremes in order to tune fib direction to the angle of trend and map 3 coordinate to next swing point. This way the spacings that come with the fib proportions would indicate rhythm of trend occurrence. The primary objective of this publication is to expose traders to the forces underlying market behavior. Specifically for illustrating temporal rhythms, the end result seen in interactive chart looks like a more simplified version of works i've shared earlier.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
5
Now That Gold Ended Bearish Weekly, What Next?After the indecision in the upper week, XAUUSD resumed its sell‑off this the trading week and closed below the prior week’s low, locking in a bearish weekly close. With momentum skewed to the downside, a mean‑reversion likely to occur over the next few weeks. N.B! - XAUUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #gold #xauusd
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BullBearMkt
SP500 ETF: Fibonacci MappingAs you may know, Williams Fractals indicator identifies potential reversal points by marking a high (or low) surrounded by two lower highs (or higher lows) on each side, forming a five-bar pattern that signals possible turning points in price. Unfortunately, the simplicity of such indicator provides just tiny perspective, undermining broad implication of the concept. Before I begin diving into processing geometric narrative of emerging price via fibonacci channels, I want to explain how I interpret fractals. When I use the term "fractal", I'm not just talking about the points alone. Market continuously corrects itself, so analyzing it by price alone can bring more confusion than help. The object of observation shouldn't be limited to quantifying just by a single property. Chaos by default requires awareness from both price and time aspects. The easiest way to root it in my vision was through realization that price is a function of trading time intervals. Its activity can be described as cyclical progression, as if it is wired by multiple "springs" of different tensions. Classic TA patterns known to literally anyone are great for anticipating a move in surface level forecasts. Since my line of work focuses on prediction over forecasts, it requires deeper structural awareness behind complex oscillations. Let's observe the way selloff scales from ATH and how it impacts fractal hierarchy. The first corrective bullish wave can be explained as a reaction to initial impulsive bearish wave. The bigger scale drop from ATH to a lower point explains why the corrective bullish wave looks the way it is. And so on: In fractals, scaling laws describe how key properties change with size, typically following power-law relationships that reflect the structure’s self-similarity, where a characteristic scales with the size raised to an exponent. To build a probabilistic model, we must keep in mind how the smaller bits make up bigger scale picture. ATH, established bottom and angle of progression defined by pullback highs, all those points have structural weight. Since psychology of masses that shapes price dynamics is governed by mathematical sequences found in nature, it's fair to use Fibonacci Channels to map the geometry of interconnectedness. Similarly, all of those points can be referred by another fibonacci channel with opposite direction. From my perspective, traditional TA patterns reflect just phases of cycle, this is why I unify those fragments into broader scalable shapes. This distinctive branch of Fractal Analysis allows to track systematic aspects of market behavior and explains how a pattern replicates itself in rhythmic continuity.
AMEX:SPY
by fract
DXY Bearish Forecast for Quarter 2, 20251. Technical analysis The idea is based in ICT's PO3; AMD pattern. We have a rally above the open price of May 2025, to take out BSL above the highs. It also aligns with Daily tf premium arrays to short from. The lowest hanging fruit being the relative equal lows at equilibrium of the dealing range. 2. Fundamental analysis Investor's confidence in the Dollar is low due to POTUS' tariffs. ICT: Inner Circle Trader PO3: Power of 3 AMD: Accumulation, Manipulation & Distribution BSL: Buy side liquidity tf: Timeframe
TVC:DXYShort
by gabrielmike010
[ TimeLine ] Gold 28-29 April 2025Hello everyone, 📅 Today is Friday, April 25, 2025 I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as reference points for potential trade entries: 📌 April 28, 2025 (Monday) 📌 April 28 & 29, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday) 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes: ✅ Gold has broken its ATH multiple times over the past two weeks—volatility remains high ✅ Gold has significant reversal more than 2000pips from its ATH 3500 to 3260 ⚠️ If the formed range is big, reversal entries or trades based on Fibonacci levels may be more appropriate ✅ I will personally trade both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy ⚠️ If you're unsure or risk-averse, consider skipping April 28 & 29 signal 📋 Execution Plan: 🔹 Wait for the price range from the candles above to fully form (marked with green lines) 🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer 🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), switch direction and double the position size on the next valid entry for potential recovery 📉📈 Chart Reference: 🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL : TV/x/9932ommw/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
Bitcoin Terminal Price Risk IndicatorToday we’ll explore the Bitcoin Terminal Price Risk Indicator , which builds on the concept of Bitcoin Terminal Price. We’ll follow the same logic as in our previous idea on the Pi Cycle Top Risk Indicator. By the end, we'll have a new tool for analyzing INDEX:BTCUSD market cycles. First, let’s recap Terminal Price. Terminal Price = Transferred Price × 21 Transferred Price = Coin Days Destroyed ÷ (supply × time) It normalizes historical spending behavior to the full 21M BTC supply. This metric has historically been effective at calling Bitcoin cycle tops whenever the price of Bitcoin crosses above it. That being said, it signaled the April 2021 peak, but not the November one. Let’s now divide the weekly BTC price by Terminal Price. This gives us BTC-to-Terminal Price Ratio. (We use the formula from the Bitcoin Master Cycle indicator by InvestorUnknown for Terminal Price on TradingView.) When the ratio crosses above 1, BTC price exceeds Terminal Price and signals cycle top. We can notice that each cycle top forms slightly lower ratio peaks. Now let’s draw two logarithmic curves through the highs and lows of this ratio, and add a midline. This creates a band within which the BTC-to-Terminal Price ratio tends to oscillate. These bounds can help anticipate major turning points in future market cycles. Next, we normalize the ratio between these bounds: bottom curve = 0, top curve = 1. This gives us the Bitcoin Terminal Price Risk Indicator. Currently, risk sits around 0.46 , bouncing between 0.3 and 0.6 for ~1.5 years. This range suggests a stepwise price increase with consolidation periods in between — and no mania and blow-off top. Historically: Risk > 0.9 = potential selling zone Risk < 0.1 (or < 0.05) = potential buying zone Note: Risk stays > 0.9 for just 1–2 weeks. Reality check: the top curve lies above 1 and slopes down only slightly. This implies that if the ratio approaches the upper boundary, BTC price could meet or exceed Terminal Price this cycle — currently ~$155K and will be rising quickly should BTC move towards it. However, so far we have very few data points and they don’t fit the curve perfectly. And there’s no guarantee we’ll reach that upper bound. For a more conservative take, we can replace the log curve with straight lines. This steeper upper line would signal a top earlier — below Terminal Price. Using this method, risk is slightly higher now at 0.55. While also not perfect, this linear approximation can serve as a cautious alternative until more data points emerge. We'll keep tracking these charts.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ChartNChill