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Economic Cycles

BNB AnalysisBinance Coin (BNB) Analysis – March 30, 2025 In today's analysis, we examine Binance Coin's price movements using the 4-hour timeframe to assess its potential future direction. 🔹 Key Support Levels: BNB remains above a crucial support range of $607–$593, which has held since March 16. If this support breaks, the price may test $546 as the next reaction level. Further downside could see BNB dropping to $530 and $507 as additional support zones. 🔹 Key Resistance Levels: On the upside, BNB faces resistance at $637–$644. A confirmed breakout above this zone could push the price toward $700, following the same price range projection method used for support breakdowns. 📌 Outlook: BNB’s trend remains neutral as long as the key support holds. A break below $593 could trigger a bearish move, while a break above $644 may confirm a bullish trend with $700 as the next target.
by EhsanZeydabadi
NVIDIA Rounding Top: Bearish Swings Q1 2025TA Nvidia demonstrated strong growth throughout 2024. However, this year, it has shown rather a poor performance. When an uptrend started to weaken, it gave off subtle signals before a full reversal happened on the horizon. One of the first clues is that the highs collectively begin to appear curved compared with initial rough growth. This reflects the loss of aggressive bullish intent, showing hesitation and vulnerability to a reversal. The price still makes higher highs, but the incremental gain between each peak shrinks. This declining magnitude in price advancement suggests that buyers are gradually losing strength with each move. These shallow bullish waves often get sold into quickly, showing early distribution behavior. Simultaneously, it takes longer time for price to reach each successive high . When higher highs occur at reduced frequency, the rally phases become stretched out. This indicates buyers are struggling, and sellers are gaining time-based control. Extended Rounding Top Pattern Price crosses above the rounding top Indicates a failed reversal and potential bullish breakout. Suggests renewed buying strength and possible trend continuation. I'd recommend using confirmation tools like volume spikes and momentum indicators which are essential to validate the breakout. Price reaches the rounding top and stalls or reverses Confirms the bearish reversal signal of the pattern. Acts as a strong resistance zone, often leading to a downtrend. Alongside with fibs, it can be used as a cue to take profits, exit long trades, or enter short positions. FUNDAMENTALS Catalysts of Bearish Swings A transition phase characterized by a series of sharp bearish swings, marked by a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, shaping a well-defined downward channel. Drop #1: ATH → Higher Low (Early January 2025) After Nvidia’s euphoric 2024 AI hype rally, it was a matter of time as some institutional Investors locked in profits, causing initial drop. Valuation metrics (P/E; P/S) reached extremes creating grounds for a correction. The Fed’s January meeting hinted at fewer rate cuts than the market expected. Rising Treasury yields pressured tech stocks. The U.S. government has imposed strict export controls on advanced semiconductors, AI chips and related technology to China. Drop #2: Lower High → Lower Low (Late January to February 2025) While Nvidia beat Q4 earnings expectations, its forward guidance disappointed. Management cited softening data center orders and consumer GPU inventory corrections. Concerns about potential erosion in gross margins due to increasing costs and competitive pricing pressure from AMD and Intel. AI infrastructure spending was plateauing faster than expected, leading to re-ratings across the sector. Drop #3: Second Lower High → Second Lower Low (Mid to Late February through Early March 2025) Several investment banks downgraded semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, amid fears of a cyclical slowdown and oversupply risks in H2 2025. In early March, broader indices dropped due to hot inflation prints in February. Fed’s stance during testimony to Congress indicated a higher interest rate outlook. Reports emerged about delays in next-gen chip production due to yield issues at TSMC and logistics constraints, fueling investor anxiety. Renewed export control tightening and U.S.-China friction were again cited as major concerns earlier this year. These concerns were part of the bearish narrative during Nvidia’s downward structure, especially during Drop #1 and Drop #2 where investors began pricing in geopolitical and regulatory headwinds. Events & Economic catalysts to monitor (before buying heavy): Nvidia Earnings Q1 2025 Mid to Late May 2025 Why it matters: Forward guidance, Data Center/AI segment growth, margin updates, and China sales commentary will heavily impact sentiment and trend direction. U.S. CPI (Inflation) Reports April 10, 2025 (March CPI) Remember: Hot inflation = higher rate expectations → tech sector sell-off. Watch for YoY core CPI trends. U.S. Jobs Report (NFP) April 4, 2025 Keep in mind: Strong labor = sticky inflation = Fed hawkishness → higher discount rates on growth stocks. Semiconductor Industry Conferences ・NVIDIA GTC (GPU Technology Conference) – usually held Spring or Fall ・Semicon West 2025 – typically July Track the progress: Product launches, AI roadmaps, new partnerships, and forward tech strategy updates often revealed.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by fract
4
What factors could drive Bitcoin(BTC/USD) to reach the $68KGiven the current market conditions, Bitcoin has not managed to establish a new high in its recent upward movement. Various factors, including uncertainty regarding upcoming economic changes, reduced liquidity, the focus of financial institutions on the decline of stock markets, and the market's inability to react to sudden shifts, have contributed to the lack of a clear directional trend. However, based on the presented analysis and chart review, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will reach the level of $68,000 in the coming weeks, paving the way for the initiation of a strong bullish trend. This upward movement is expected to first drive Bitcoin's price to approximately $130,000, and after a brief correction, the upward momentum may continue, potentially pushing the price to levels as high as $179,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Esfahan
GLD/SPX as a risk-off signal for BTC/SPXFor all the "Bitcoin will follow gold" crowd... This chart tells a very different story. Every time we’ve seen GLD/SPX rally sharply, BTC/SPX has underperformed for months afterward. 📉 See the shaded red zones – they highlight periods when: GLD/SPX (gold line) made strong relative moves, BTC/SPX (aqua line) lagged or outright dropped. We're in another one of those zones right now. Unless you’ve got a strong reason why "this time is different," the base case is clear: BTC/SPX likely underperforms for another 3–6 months. If you're positioning long BTC expecting it to mimic gold's run, be aware — that hasn't played out well historically. 🧭 Trade Idea: Patience: Don't rush the BTC long. Let the GLD/SPX spike play out. Timeframe: Revisit BTC/SPX for potential re-entry mid-to-late 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by hansolar21
Bitcoin - 2025After a long consolidation around $100,000, and a correction of ~32% from the top, it seems we are preparing for a new move. In the previous idea, I mentioned that there could be either consolidation or a healthy correction, but both happened. I will describe several scenarios that I see. I will describe only positive, super-positive and ultra-positive ones. Since the negative sounds like this - we have already reached the peak, there will be a small over-high, and we will go bearish. Positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $150,000-$200,000 Super-positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $200,000-$300,000 Ultra-positive scenario - parabolic growth, with a new peak in the region of $300,000-$400,000 Now you must ask - can we really reach $400,000, how is this possible, with the current price of $84,000, and April outside the window? I will tell you that there is nothing complicated or incredible here, that is why it is ultra-positive. But you should focus only on positive and negative scenarios, and not float in the clouds hoping for a miracle. As for altcoins, in this scenario, I don't think Bitcoin dominance will last long, so high, in any case, soon there will either be an overflow and altcoins will start shooting, or we will all die from the paws of bears HOLD YOUR BEARS, IT'S NOT OVER
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by just5
1
Bitcoin Dominance Ascending Channel and Altseason (1W Log)CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D has been in a clean uptrend inside an ascending channel for over 2 years. • The midline has consistently acted as a magnet, but BTC.D has recently detached from it and might be headed for another retest of the upper boundary. • Unless major macro catalysts intervene, I expect no notable changes until the 72-73% key area, the same zone that triggered 2021's altseason. Regarding altseason, this cycle isn't like previous ones. With millions of tokens today, dilution is real, and a full-blown altseason where everything pumps seems unlikely. Instead, I expect selective rotation into quality projects, and that might actually make it easier to find real outperformance.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by AliferCrypto
5
SUPER/USDT Technical Breakdown – Historical Cycle Repeating?🟢 Current Price: $0.5645 📊 Historical Moves (from chart): 🔹 Cycle 1: 🔹 Entry: ~$0.475 🔹 Peak: $1.5192 🔹 % Gain: +236.92% 🔹 Duration: 97 days 🔹 Cycle 2: 🔹 Entry: ~$0.387 🔹 Peak: $2.2603 🔹 % Gain: +361.63% 🔹 Duration: 133 days 🔹 Projected Cycle 3: 🔹 Entry: ~$0.5648 🔹 Peak: $1.6985 - $2.2667 🔹 % Gain: +267.04% 🔹 Duration: 102 days 🔹 Forecasted Move (Based on Pattern Repeat): 🔹 Projection: From current base (~$0.5031) → Target Range: $1.5332–$2.2666 🔹 Potential Max Gain: ~+386.94% (historical highest pattern) 🎯 Target Zones: 🎯 Target Price Level From $0.5645 Approx. ROI Target 1 $0.8632 Resistance & fib zone +53% Target 2 $1.2535 Previous rejection point +122% Target 3 $1.5244 Historical fib resistance +170% Final Stretch $2.2666 Last bull cycle top +301% 🟨 Suggested Entry Zone: Between $0.50 – $0.56 Matches historical bottoms from each prior cycle Strong support with triple bottom structure 🛑 Stop Loss Consideration: Below $0.5031 support line Break of structure would invalidate current cycle repeat 🧠 Strategy: ✅ Accumulate slowly within support range 🧾 Set sell targets at fib zones or previous tops 🔍 Monitor for breakout volume or EMA crossovers Disclaimer...a portion of this was generated using AI to help me clearly get my idea across.
Long
by ictc3d
[ TimeLine ] Gold 4 April 2025Hello everyone, 📅 Today is Wednesday, April 2, 2025. I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as key entry points for my trades: 📌 April 4, 2025 (Friday), or 📌 April 4 & April 7, 2025 (Friday & Monday). Trading Plan: ✅ Wait for the price range from these candles to form (indicated by the green lines). ✅ Trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range , with a 60-pip buffer . ✅ If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL) , we will cut/switch the trade and double the position size to recover losses. 📉📈 Below is the chart with the estimated Hi-Lo range of April 4 & 7, 2025. You can copy the unique code and add it to the TradingView URL . 🔗 TV/x/ikMJV8NH/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
Bitcoin Cyclical Pattern Analysis: 2017 vs 2025-2026The charts provide compelling evidence of fractal patterns between Bitcoin's 2017 bull run and the current 2025 cycle, revealing both striking similarities and meaningful differences in market behavior. Key Similarities Both periods display remarkably similar structural patterns with consistent sequence of movements: Initial pulldowns (~34% in 2017 vs ~33% in 2025) Series of uptrends followed by corrective pullbacks Progressive upward momentum with higher highs and higher lows Similar number of major price waves (four significant uptrends in each case) Key Differences Timeframe Extension: The 2025 cycle shows significantly extended durations compared to 2017 Initial pulldown: 3 weeks (2017) vs 21 weeks (2025) – 7x longer First major uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 11 weeks (2025) – similar duration Second uptrend: 12 weeks (2017) vs 14 weeks (2025) – slightly longer Overall cycle progression is approximately 2-3x longer Magnitude Reduction: The 2025 cycle shows diminished percentage movements: First major uptrend: 230% (2017) vs 120% (2025) – roughly half Second uptrend: 172% (2017) vs 85% (2025) – roughly half Final uptrend: 253% (2017) vs 125% (2025) – roughly half Technical Analysis Support This pattern correlation would likely be supported by other technical indicators: Bollinger Bands would show: Similar pattern of band expansion during strong directional moves Band contraction during consolidation periods before breakouts 2025 likely exhibiting less volatility (narrower bands) but with similar repeating patterns of price touching upper bands during uptrends and lower bands during corrections Ichimoku Cloud would demonstrate: Similar cloud breakout patterns preceding major uptrends Price respecting key Ichimoku components (Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen) as support/resistance 2025 showing extended time within the cloud during longer consolidation periods Similar bullish/bearish crossovers of the conversion and base lines, but occurring over longer timeframes Predictive Value This comparative lens offers valuable predictive power for several reasons: Market Psychology Consistency: Despite Bitcoin's maturation, market psychology (fear, greed cycles) remains remarkably consistent, expressed through similar percentage retracements and fractal patterns. Macro Context Integration: The longer durations and reduced volatility in 2025 reflect Bitcoin's increased market capitalization and institutional adoption, creating a logical evolution of the same underlying patterns. Specific Forecasting Application: If the pattern correlation holds, we might anticipate: The current cycle extending into mid-2026 One more major uptrend followed by a 30-40% correction A final explosive move of approximately 125-150% Total cycle appreciation significantly less than 2017 but still substantial Risk Management Framework: These patterns provide clear pivot points for position sizing and risk management, with defined percentage targets and timeframes. This analysis suggests we're witnessing an evolved expression of the same market dynamics that drove the 2017 cycle, with the extended timeframes and reduced percentage movements reflecting Bitcoin's maturation as an asset class while maintaining its fundamental cyclical character.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by rathernotsay21
BTC to the moonIs Bitcoin Just Getting Started? This Fib Zone Could Be the Ultimate Buy Signal! Bitcoin is pulling back… but smart money is watching this golden zone. After a strong rally, BTC is now retesting the 61.8%–78.6% Fib retracement zone—historically one of the highest-probability reversal areas in crypto. We’re not just guessing here… the chart is showing structure, confluence, and opportunity. My Trade Plan (Weekly Chart) - Entry Zone: FWB:83K – $85K - Re-entry/DCA: $79K – $81K - Stop Loss: $74K - Take Profits: - TP1: $95K - TP2: $109K (previous high) - TP3: $130K–$144K (extension zone) Bullish bias unless we close below $78K on the weekly. A clean breakout above GETTEX:89K could send BTC into price discovery mode again. Could this be the last big dip before a parabolic move? Time will tell, but this setup has everything we look for. Agree? Disagree? Drop your thoughts below. Follow for more swing setups & macro plays. #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Fibonacci #PriceAction #SwingTrade #Bullish #CryptoAnalysis #BTCUSD #BitcoinHalving #BuyTheDip #AltseasonComing #TradingView
BLACKBULL:BTCUSDLong
by Sthesh_Don_Billiato