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Economic Cycles

Q4 effects on BitcoinTIME BASED LONG TERM BITCOIN SPECULATION First of all, This analysis is not about to tell you that the bottom is in or not, this is a fun theory which has no confirmation for the future. As i see every time Bitcoin enters the November zone, it starts to make a bigger move. In this analytics maybe not the november month is what matters, it can be analysed by quarters or yearly periods too, but i chose the november zone. 2014 november: (A) -top of the bull market 2015 (little bit after) november: (B) -bottom of the bear market 2016 november: (C) -breakout and retest to the fibonacci zones then rally 2017 (little bit after) november: (A) -Top of the bull market 2018 (little bit after) november: (B) -bottom of the bear market 2019 november: (C) -breakout and retest to the fibonacci zones then rally 2021 november: (A) -Top of the bull market 2022 november: (B) -Bottom of the bull market? We can also identify a gap between C and A period because the rally doesn't end in the next november cycle. This analytics does not say that the bottom is in, but it can be already in or days/weeks away from the current price. The structure has to be analysed by self, and this chart could give us a clue where should we see the price a year after. The price should be in the 30k region to see a retest or a breakout from the zone. in 2024 we should see 30k usd / BTC, but we don't know that if we will have a rally before it. Hope i gave you something interesting. Thanks for reading and have a nice trading carrier:) (Always bullish on BTC)
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Dandady
1
[ TimeLine ] Gold 6 March 2025Hello everyone, I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as entry points for my trades: March 6, 2025 We will wait for the price range from these candles to form as indicated with blue box. The trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with an additional buffer of 60 pips. If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut or switch the trade accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
[ TimeLine ] Gold 27-28 February 2025Hello everyone, I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as entry points for my trades: February 27, 2025 and/or February 27 + 28, 2025 We will wait for the price range from these candles to form as indicated with blue box. The trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with an additional buffer of 60 pips. If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut or switch the trade accordingly.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
LINK is set to outperform ETH in this cycle ! 🔥 Hello Traders 🐺 In this idea, I want to talk about LINK/ETH and why we should pay attention to it 👇 As you might know, there are two indicators that usually signal the beginning of Altcoin Season: 1️⃣ BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) 2️⃣ ETH/BTC chart These two factors help us identify when exactly ETH is going to outperform BTC and where the possible price targets are. I've already discussed them in my recent ideas — you can check them out on my profile or in the related ideas section. So make sure to follow me to stay tuned! ✅ ⚡️ Why should we pay attention to LINK/ETH right now? During Altcoin Season, other altcoins start to move alongside ETH, but how they react to ETH’s movements depends heavily on their chart performance against ETH. If an altcoin shows strength against ETH, we can easily see: 🚀 10% pump in ETH price 🚀 25% pump in that specific altcoin 📉 Let’s dive into the LINK/ETH chart: As you can see, the price has already formed a W pattern and we've tested the neckline multiple times. And you know the rule: 👉 The more we test a support or resistance, the weaker it becomes! 🎯 Now the big question: What is the price target for LINK in this cycle? 📍 First target (minimum): 0.019600 ETH per LINK 📍 Second target: Around 0.03 ETH per LINK 💡 My personal strategy: Sell 50% of your LINK at the second target and keep the rest for bigger gains because LINK has massive potential for this cycle! 🚀 ✅ I hope you enjoyed this idea! Don't forget to like & follow for more 🔥 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Long
by Kiu_Coin
Bitcoin is Headed to $36K And It’s Happening NOW!This might not be the most popular opinion, especially among those who still believe the current Bitcoin bull cycle hasn’t ended. However, I encourage you to take a few minutes, approach this with an open mind, and let me know whether you agree or disagree. Understanding the Previous Cycle (2020–2021) The last Bitcoin bull cycle began in March 2020, when BTC bottomed at approximately $3,810. It then surged to an all-time high (ATH) of $69,870 in November 2021, marking the cycle top. By applying a Fibonacci retracement to this entire range, we can see that the golden pocket (0.618 - 0.786 Fib)—often a key support zone during bear markets—fell between $17,700 and $28,690. Looking at the chart, BTC beautifully retraced into this zone, even dipping slightly below it to form a cycle bottom at $15,500 in November 2022. The key sign that the bear market had ended and a new bull market had begun was when Bitcoin broke above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous cycle and established a higher high on the weekly chart. This marked a clear shift from a bearish to a bullish market structure. The Current Cycle (2022–2025) From the November 2022 bottom, Bitcoin rallied, setting a new ATH at $73,600—just slightly above the previous peak. After some consolidation, it found strong support at the 0.236 Fib level of the previous bull cycle, signaling that the uptrend was still intact. The real breakout came when BTC surpassed the psychological $100,000 level and consolidated around the -0.5 Fib extension of the previous cycle. The cycle top appears to have been put in after Donald Trump took office in January 2025, marking an approximately 26-month bull run—longer than previous cycles. However, a major bear market confirmation signal has now emerged: BTC has decisively broken below the 0.236 Fib retracement of this cycle, which historically signals the end of a bull market and the beginning of a new bear phase. Where is the Next Bottom? By analyzing the Fibonacci levels of both the previous and current bull cycles, we can identify key potential support zones where Bitcoin may bottom out: 1. $51,370 - $53,700 • This range aligns with: • 0.236 Fib of the previous bull cycle • 0.618 Fib of the most recent bull cycle • This zone has confluence, making it a high-probability support level. 2. $35,600 - $36,500 • This range aligns with: • 0.5 Fib of the previous bull cycle • 0.786 Fib of the most recent bull cycle • If BTC breaks below the first support zone, this is the next key level to watch. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets last around one year, so we can expect this downward trend to play out over a similar timeframe. How to Position Yourself? For long-term investors, these support zones offer prime buying opportunities to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices before the next bull run begins. While the market won’t move in a straight line down—expect bounces and fake-outs—the general expectation is that BTC will find its next higher low within one of these zones. Looking Ahead: Next Bull Cycle Target If we use the same -0.5 Fib extension strategy that predicted the previous cycle’s top, we can estimate the next bull market peak. Based on the current cycle’s Fib range, the projected ATH for the next bull run would be around $157,000. Final Thoughts While nobody can predict the future with certainty, historical price action, Fibonacci levels, and market structure provide strong clues about where BTC is headed next. As always, flexibility is key—if market conditions change, so should our expectations. But if history repeats itself, these levels offer a solid framework for identifying the best entry points and positioning for the next major bull run. What do you think? Do you agree with this analysis, or do you see it differently? Let me know in the comments!
Short
by bigcheese421
4
SMPH Possible Trend ReversalAfter months of downtrend, SMPH seems to be somehow recovering from its bearish sentiment. From downtrend to sideways Confluence Macro: Shift from downtrend to sideways Daily chart: higher lows RSI: higher lows Short term outlook: Looking like a 1 month short term uptrend. Other Notes Possibly looking to make a DB MB BO and hopefully a DB BT BO Coming from a macro downtrend, sentiment shifting to defensive stocks. Property sector may not be the first mover post bearish sentiment since its not a defensive sector but perhaps the speculated rate cuts may help. Earnings also released and looking good.
PSE:SMPHLong
by grailforce
Whales are loading up ETH while retailers are giving it away...Hello Traders 🐺 In this idea, I want to talk about the ETH/BTC chart, because in my opinion, ETH is already heavily oversold, and this signals a massive upward move coming for ETH. 🚀 Also, I've brought solid evidence showing that whales are silently accumulating ETH, just like they did when ETH was around $ 4000 — while right now, we are sitting at the very bottom of the cycle, far from the previous ATH. 👀 Take a look at this CryptoQuant chart, showing the ETH balance of whale wallets (10K - 100K ETH): 🧐 My Analysis: As you can see, whales have been silently accumulating ETH since early 2023, while the price (white line) has been consolidating. 📈 This exact same pattern happened in 2017 and 2020 before Ethereum's major bull runs. 🔥 What does this mean? ✅ Whales always accumulate before the big move happens. ✅ This is a strong signal for an upcoming ETH breakout. ✅ We are currently at the bottom of the ETH/BTC chart, which gives the highest risk/reward opportunity right now. In my opinion, Ethereum will be one of the best-performing assets in this bull cycle. 🐂💎 Don't miss it. 🚀 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Long
by Kiu_Coin
3
XAUUSD 14.03 – Watching for Shorts After ExpansionAfter yesterday’s expansion move up, making higher highs, we are now looking for shorts targeting the Previous Month’s High (PMH) at 2955 and the 2935-2940 range (50% Daily retracement). - Narrative: Possible expansion to retracement - Current Price Action: Manipulation of yesterday’s high + lower timeframe break suggests shorts may be in play. Refer to the video for a detailed breakdown. #PipsnPaper #TradingView #XAUUSD #PriceAction
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PipsnPaper
NAB Monthly Long term structureElliotticians, don't crucify me... I'm no expert in EW theory! But I believe we are seeing a super high level double or triple three pattern emerging in NAB Long term it appears that NAB was in a trending pattern till 2009 Currently we are in a long term corrective phase, which consists of large Flat corrections and zigzags or triangles Overall we just completed a large Flat 3-3-5 wave pattern and likely to see a fall into an ABC correction (zigzag) to start a new corrective phase or possibly create a large long term triangle What this suggests is that this is in a large ranging pattern... so trading in and selling out at long term resistances would be the smart play until such time as the longer term structure becomes clear and builds a completed base to start a trending move outside of this structure Ranging markets chew up time to create the base for the next long term trend and in this case we are likely to see the range continue until we see some completed structure Some beginners sometimes do not understand ranging markets as they are harder to understand than trends... but if you get the overall grasp of them you can differentiate the difference between a real buying opportunity that have completed ranging structures within it and a short term buying opportunity and position yourself accordingly I've posted a few on the ASX over the years and each time the moves out of these tend to be strong and persistent
ASX:NABShort
by dionvuletich
Quarterly Theory "QT" Introduction to Quarterly Theory (QT) Time must be divided into quarters for a proper interpretation of market cycles. Combining QT (Quarterly Theory) concepts with basic ICT concepts leads to greater accuracy. Understanding QT allows you to be flexible. It adapts to any trading style as it is universal across all time frames. QT eliminates ambiguity by providing specific time-based reference points to look for when entering trades . THE CYCLE Annual Cycle - 3 quarters each Monthly Cycle - 1 week each Weekly Cycle - 1 day each* Daily Cycle - 6 hours each Session Cycle - 90 minutes each *Monday to Thursday, Friday has its own specific function . Annual Cycle: Q1 JANUARY - MARCH Q2 APRIL - JUNE Q3 JULY - SEPTEMBER Q4 OCT - DECEMBER Monthly Cycle**: Q1 FIRST WEEK Q2 SECOND WEEK Q3 THIRD WEEK Q4 FOURTH WEEK Weekly Cycle*: Q1 MONDAY Q2 TUESDAY Q3 WEDNESDAY Q4 THURSDAY Daily Cycle: Q1 ASIA Q2 LONDON Q3 NEW YORK Q4 AFTERNOON **Monthly Cycle starts with the first full week of the month. *Friday has its own cycle, which is why it is not listed. Q1 indicates the quarters that follow. If Q1 expands, Q2 is likely to consolidate. If Q1 consolidates, Q2 is likely to expand. TRUE OPENS True price opens are the beginning of Q2 in each cycle. It validates key levels. What are the true opens? Yearly: First Monday of April (Q2) Monthly: Second Monday of the month (Q2) Weekly: Second daily candle of the week Daily: Start of the London session (6 hours after the open of the daily candle) Asia - London - NY - Evening: 90 minutes after the open of the 6-hour candle. DIAGRAM: Q1 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation. Q2 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this). Q3 (D) Distribution (Trade this). Q4 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter. Q1 (X) Continuation - Reversal of the previous quarter. Q2 (A) Accumulation - Consolidation. Q3 (M) Manipulation - Judas Swing (Trade this). Q4 (D) Distribution (Trade this). ANNUAL CYCLE: MONTHLY CYCLE: WEEKLY CYCLE: DAILY CYCLE:
Education
by Ed_Ale