AVGO: Chronological Hierarchy of FractalsBasis of Scalable Structure (Systematic):
Marking Chronological Hierarchy of Fractals
Overall Fib Mapping:
Level I:
Level II:
Level III: ext II
Level IV:
Level V & VI
Economic Cycles
NU Holdings OutlookNU price has left the high volatility range and dropped by over 11% today.
The chart suggests that the first Elliott Wave A-B-C correction structure might be near completion with this five-wave downward move. Prices are reaching quite attractive levels again, prompting me to consider re-establishing a position, as the first clear correction pattern appears to be finishied soon.
There's a possibility that the entire correction could be complete. However, my main scenario anticipates that the chart will develop into a more complex correction pattern over the next few months, not finishing with this simple A-B-C structure.
There's still a chance that if the correction lasts longer, these prices could represent the lowest we'll see.
My primary target remains the 50% Fibonacci level at $9.25.
Marking the end of Bull rallyCouple months ago, I published my US30 Elliott Wave analysis stating the start of upward move which we saw in the past months.
Today, I am publishing the Elliott Wave breakdown of the upward move we have seen in past months which was anticipated in previous idea.
Coming to the point, it seems the rally is about to end and the correction is about to start. I am anticipating this correction to be somewhat big according to my Weekly wave count shown in previous chart, but lets see how things go.
BTC retrace of 30% beginning of 2025? Historical Data suggest that #BTC could retrace by about -30% down to the 75K mark before continuing its rally throughout 2025. I am keeping an eye out for the repetition of this pattern.
My McClellan Oscillator Graph - Up or Down in the Markets?This is a huge factor to watch, something to consider, Santa Claus Rally expected, or not?
I have had many financial analysts for decades always point out this chart when the markets seem toppy or indecisive.
The Dow has closed 9 days in a row, first time since the 70s, that's quite interesting, let's watch to see if the theory behind this indicator proves we are in for a rally as I expect.
The markets always tend to go higher more than one might think.
Short trade
Sellside trade
Pair ZRXUSD
LND Session AM
6.30 am
Entry 0.3290
Profit level 0.2943 (10.55%)
Stop level 0.3344 (1.64%)
RR 6.43
XAUUSD Reversal?Yesterday Asia was bringing the price up until NY session dumped it.
Will wait for an aggressive move down today until London. Will also look for buyers if the move down is being accepted.
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles
Cycle Analysis:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes:
ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase)
Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2%
Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11%
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes:
ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase)
Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94%
Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93%
Projection for Cycle 4:
Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth:
Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000
(Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors)
Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200%
(Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains)
Projected Loss: Around 70-75%
(Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation)
Each cycle shows a pattern of:
Reduced percentage gains
Slightly improved loss recovery
Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price
ATH Calculation:
Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x
Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x
Observed Growth Multiplier Trend:
Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x
Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x
Projection Approach:
Lower Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative)
Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000
Upper Bound Calculation:
Previous ATH: $68,979
Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic)
Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91
Gain Percentage Calculation:
Cycle 1: 52,287.39%
Cycle 2: 12,804.2%
Cycle 3: 1,976.94%
Observed Decline Pattern:
Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage
Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage
Projected Gain Range:
Lower bound: 600-800%
Upper bound: 1000-1200%
Loss Percentage Trend:
Cycle 1: 86.9%
Cycle 2: 83.11%
Cycle 3: 75.93%
Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement)
Methodology Notes:
Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers
Considered logarithmic growth pattern
Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles
Disclaimer:
Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
PSX : AVNTo predict the potential length of the third downtrend for Avanceon Ltd. (AVN), we can analyze the previous two downtrends and look for a pattern. Here’s a breakdown:
-First downtrend lasted 46 bars (69 days)
-Second downtrend lasted 48 bars (73 days)
Both downtrends are similar in length, with a slight increase between the first and second.
If we follow this pattern of slight growth in downtrend duration,
we can estimate based on historical patterns,
it’s reasonable to predict that the third downtrend could last approximately 74 to 78 days.
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles.
"Crypto is an expression of Macro."
The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation.
Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets.
In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management:
1. Quantitative Easing (QE)
The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention:
- Prevented a complete economic collapse
- Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets
- Kept interest rates artificially low
- Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession
2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy
Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management:
- Coordinated interest rate decisions
- Shared information about economic interventions
- Created global liquidity pools
3. Cyclical Liquidity Management
The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through:
- Periodic liquidity injections
- Strategic interest rate adjustments
- Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one
The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of:
- 2-3 years of expansionary policy
- Followed by a contraction or normalization period
This cycle typically involves:
- Expanding money supply
- Lowering interest rates
- Supporting asset prices
- Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating
The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions.
This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
Ethereum towards new ATH?After testing the resistance above 4,000, the flash crash in Alts impacted ETH/USD as well, resulting in a sharp drop to 3,500.
However, the strong support established at this level held firm, preventing further declines. Now, the price is approaching the resistance zone once again.
At this point, it seems the bulls are gaining momentum, making a breakout above the resistance highly likely.
If this breakout materializes, the price could accelerate significantly, with 5,000 emerging as the next logical target.
XAUUSD Testing The Idea That Trend Keeps TrendingPreviously when I am doing the DCA thing, I would long when price is at support, and when price breaks through support, I would continue to DCA. However, now I have a new idea since last week, that is to trade in the direction of the current wave's trend while taking into account the overall trend and market condition.
Now, even though I believe that a finite resource such as gold (at least on earth), would increase in price in the long run, but it has it's own cycles of ups and downs in the short run, and in this current cycle, I believe it is going to go downwards.
Even though price is obviously at a minor Support area currently, but I am going to short XAUUSD because the trend is down, now.
Unless if price really pushes itself upwards, and trends upwards, otherwise I have zero reason to be buying right now.
Alrighty now, I am not buying now. I am just testing this idea out and journalling it here for all to see if anyone is interested.
We shall see how it goes.
TLDR : Price trends in one direction, buy in that direction. If price reverses in the opposite direction completely, we would close the current positions and open new positions in the new direction.
1439SGT 16122024
NVIDIA: Fib Fractal MappingConsidering all those observed fractal patterns from:
A fractal to narrow in would be:
Let's unfold:
This means we have identified scalable structural basis.
Fibonacci Mapping
Validation of Metrics via Resonation:
Validation of Fibonacci channel tilt:
Fractals of Previous Cycle:
Scalable Fractals:
Fractal patterns are approximations and are not solely about predicting price movements on the Y-axis; they also encompass the frequency of reversals on the X-axis. The timing of smaller cycles, which serve as the building blocks of these patterns, holds greater significance than the overall composite price changes.
BTC dell 120.000$📊 BTCUSDT Analysis:
Current Price: $102,859.06
Sell Zone: Near $120,000.00 (🟢 Major resistance)
Support Zone: $77,777.00 (🛡️ Key level for potential rebound)
🚨 Signal:
Bearish Scenario: If BTC reaches $120,000.00, it’s a sell opportunity 📉.
Bullish Scenario: In a strong bull trend (📈), you can buy dips around $77,777.00 (🚀 support area).
💡 Strategy:
Take profits near $120,000.00 🎯 if already holding BTC.
Watch for entries at $77,777.00 🔍 if BTC retraces.
📈 Trend: Overall Bullish unless support at $93,175 or $77,777 breaks (🔻).
🔐 Risk Management:
Stop-loss for buys: Below $73,316.18 (⚠️ Critical level).
Let me know if you need further clarification or tailored strategies!
APPLE: Fibonacci Fractal Mapping IApple Inc has some complex cycles which we're about to breakdown to composite phases via fibonacci ratios.
REGULARITIES
Continuous Fractal
Since start 00's, bearish trends in Apple have notably shrunk in percentage terms, painting the past two decades as a period of ever growing optimism. Many long-term cycles remain incomplete for an extended time amplifying the opposing force.
A linear extensions through local tops can serve a future support level.
A parallel line of that same angle carries the same deterministic properties.
This unlocks use of Fibonacci channels to further analyze the structure factoring in specific side tilt.
Continuous Fractal Type - forces alternative approach in interconnecting critical points
Fibonacci Fractal Mapping
Fractal Hierarchy
WITH GBPUSD FURTHER BREAKDOWN, LIKELY TARGETING BELOW 1.25000After micro double top, Cable further closed below 1.26178 indicating more weakness of the pair. The pair is now targeting to go lower...
N.B!
- GBPUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gbpusd
#cable
GBPUSD bears seems to be in controlIchimoku Analysis
1. Price vs. Cloud (Kumo):
The price has sharply broken below the Kumo (cloud), confirming a bearish trend.
The Senkou Span A (leading green line) is below Senkou Span B (leading red line), showing sustained bearish momentum.
2. Tenkan-Sen (Red Line) vs. Kijun-Sen (Blue Line):
A bearish cross (Tenkan-Sen below Kijun-Sen) occurred earlier, supporting the downward move.
3. Chikou Span (Lagging Green Line):
The Chikou Span is below price and cloud, affirming no immediate support in historical price levels.
4. Key Support & Resistance:
Resistance: 1.2763 - 1.2786 (cloud top and recent highs).
Support: 1.2600 (current psychological level), 1.2550 (minor support), and 1.2500 (major psychological support).
Ichimoku Wave Theory
The current price move forms a bearish N-Wave:
1. Impulse Up to 1.2786.
2. Correction Down to 1.2650.
3. Continuation Down to the current level (1.2600), with potential for a further leg down.
A measured move projects a continuation of approximately 100-120 pips below 1.2600, aligning with 1.2500.
Ichimoku Time Theory
Time cycles (9, 17, and 26 periods) help predict the timing of price targets:
1. Breakout Timing:
The breakout below the cloud occurred after 17 periods of consolidation.
2. Time to Targets:
TP1 (1.2550): Likely within 9 periods (36 hours) from the breakout point.
TP2 (1.2500): Likely within 17 periods (68 hours) from the breakout.
Each period represents 4 hours (4H chart).
Trade Setup
1. Entry:
Sell on a confirmed break below 1.2600.
Alternatively, enter on a retest of 1.2650 (Kijun-Sen level).
2. Stop-Loss:
Above the Kumo at 1.2763 to protect against reversal.
3. Take-Profit Targets:
TP1: 1.2550 (minor support) – expected within 36 hours (1.5 days).
TP2: 1.2500 (psychological level and measured move target) – expected within 68 hours (3 days).
4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Entry: 1.2600
SL: 1.2763 (163 pips)
TP1: 1.2550 (50 pips)
TP2: 1.2500 (100 pips)
Conclusion
The bearish structure, confirmed by Ichimoku Cloud, Wave Theory, and Time Theory, favors further downside.
Expect TP1 (1.2550) in approximately 1.5 days and TP2 (1.2500) in 3 days.
Monitor for a retest of 1.2650 or a clear break of 1.2600 before entering short positions.
This setup aligns with Ichimoku's principles of combining price, time, and wave analysis for a comprehensive trade strategy.
ETHUSD: Progressive FractalREGULARITIES
Emerging Fractals
Progressive Fractal Type
Increased fractal's playback frequency
Fibonacci Fractal Mapping
Fib Channels Y-axis - Price scale incline
Fib Channels X-axis - Time scale incline
Fractal Interference Pattern
Producing Structure-based Probabilistic Fibonacci Targets
Validation of Fractal Metrics via Resonation
Altseason Awakes: The 2025 Crypto Bull Run Is Here!🚀 ALTSEASON 2025 STARTS NOW! 🚀
Altseason Setup – Breakout Confirmed, Uptrend Ahead!
Chart Overview
This chart highlights a significant trend reversal in the **OTHERS.D** (crypto market cap excluding the top 10) dominance percentage. A **downtrend breakout** signals that **Altseason** may be right around the corner in 2025!
---
Key Observations
📉 Long-Term Downtrend Broken:
- The grey descending trendline (dynamic resistance) has been breached after a long accumulation phase.
- This marks the end of a 2+ year compression phase** (2022-2024), where altcoin dominance remained suppressed.
🟢 Accumulation at Support:
- The market has shown strong **support** at **11-12% dominance**.
- Multiple bounces (green arrows) in the red compression zone signal that buyers are stepping in.
📈 Bullish Projection – 20-22% Dominance:
- Following the breakout, the chart projects a steady *uptrend* (green dotted line) toward 20-22% dominance** by 2026.
- Cyclical patterns suggest that a major **Altseason** could begin in 2025, mirroring previous rallies.
---
*Key Levels to Watch*
🔑 Support Zone : 11.0-12.0% (current range).
🔑 Target Zone : 20-22% dominance in the coming years.
---
#Summary
✅ Altseason Setup Confirmed!
The breakout from the descending trendline, combined with strong support at the 11-12% range, signals the start of a new **altcoin dominance cycle**. If this pattern holds, **Altcoins** may significantly outperform major cryptos in 2025-2027.
---
🚀 Trade Idea
- Long-Term Strategy : Accumulate strong altcoin projects early in 2025.
- Projection : Altcoin dominance to rise toward **20-22%** levels.
---
⚡ **Share your thoughts below! Are you ready for Altseason 2025?** ⚡
---
### **#Altseason2025 #CryptoMarket #OTHERS.D #Altcoins #CryptoBreakout #TradingViewIdeas**
BTC.D Top outHistory never repeats but it tends to rime quite well.
If we use that saying as the base for this thesis then we should see BTC.D top out at between 69-78% dominance using the horizontal resistance at the previous dominance top (2021).
To estimate this in a timely manner we plot the dates of the halvings and the date of BTC price ATH. To extrapolate the future cycle top we take the number of days from the halvings to the BTC price ATH and add them together and divide them by the number of cycle tops.
x=(a+b+c)/3
Historically we find confluence in the RSI momentum oscillator were the strength of the BTC.D is weakening hence gaining momentum to the downside. If history rimes we are entering that part of the cycle within the next 3-6 months.
#SCF : MEDIUM LONG TERM ENTRYi have an important support area between 0.040 and 0.019.
as long as we stay within that price range over the next weeks, the current bearish movement will remain healthy.
i see a possible change in structure from bearish to bullish between december and january.
🎯 first target: 80%
🎯 second target: 132%
🎯 third target: between 240% and 280%
this does not include the compounded interest from taking partial profits and reentries within the upward trend.
VELOUSD 12/3/2024VELOUSD Daily Chart Analysis
VELOUSD has exhibited distinct market cycle phases, presenting a strong bullish setup
.
Key Observations
1. Market Cycle Phases:
o From April to July 2024, price underwent a steep downtrend, indicative of a distribution or markdown phase.
o Between July and November, price transitioned into an accumulation phase, consolidating within a defined range.
2. Breakout Confirmation:
o At the end of November/start of December, price broke out of the accumulation range.
o A spike in volume supports the validity of the breakout, and the price has sustained its position above the resistance level for 7 consecutive days, signaling strong buying pressure.
Trade Details
• Position: Long
• Entry: 0.13341
• Stop Loss: 0.11322 (15.13% risk)
• Target: 0.22295 (67.12% potential return)
• Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 4.43
Summary
The breakout from the accumulation range, supported by volume and momentum, suggests a continuation of bullish activity. The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for long trades. Careful monitoring of the stop-loss level is recommended to protect against potential retracements.
