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Economic Cycles

$BTC Post Death Cross PA Has NOT Confirmed 200DMA - Must Read!Throughout Bitcoin's history it has had 11 Death Crosses (50DMA crossing under 200DMA), and 10 of those times price has retested the 200DMA within ~3 months (with 1 outlier). Do you know what time it did NOT retest the 200DMA? You might have guessed it… this most recent death cross ☠️ The only outlier that price did not retest the 200DMA within ~3 months was in 2015, where it took nearly a year to retest. In that time, CRYPTOCAP:BTC ripped 200% just 75 days later, which marked the start of the PARABOLA. This is why I have been so adamant with sticking to my base case for Bitcoin’s next move. Is this time different? 🥸 Will it take nearly a year to retest the 200DMA? An interesting observation I found was that if we take 90D from the most recent death cross, it brings us out to July 6th, which is right around when the 90-day pause of tariffs is lifted 🧐 Having said all that, if PA confidently breaks above and confirms previous ATH (~$110k), I will lean towards the 2015 outlier for the 200DMA retest, which would put us into late Q1 2026. That would line up nicely with a suspected top of the cycle 🥲
INDEX:BTCUSD
by jonnieking
Thesis — How XRP Could Reach Triple Digits Within 12 MonthsAbout a month ago, I pointed out a pattern that preceded XRP’s explosive bull run in 2017. That same pattern is now playing out almost identically — and if the fractal continues to hold, XRP could be gearing up for another major move. Frankly, the 4-hour chart is a near-mirror image of 2017’s setup. I’ve overlaid the original bar pattern onto today’s price action — the resemblance is hard to ignore. If this plays out: We could see a test of all-time highs within a week Double-digit XRP by mid-year Triple-digit XRP by late 2025 or early 2026 No guarantees, of course — but the structure is clear, and the setup is there. For context, I view the November rally as XRP simply reverting to where it would have been had regulatory pressure not artificially suppressed the price. That move wasn’t the bull run — it was a reset. Importantly, alt season still hasn’t kicked off (just look at BTC dominance), and XRP’s fundamentals are stronger than ever: Lawsuit behind us ETFs likely coming Ongoing partnerships Pro-crypto regulatory tone globally Technically and fundamentally, XRP has never looked better.
CRYPTO:XRPUSDLong
by Drmagicman
Altcoin Market (OTHERS) Cycle Analysis: To the Moon !Let’s take a closer look at the previous bull cycle of the Others (Altcoin Market Cap excluding BTC & ETH) chart. Before the major upward move, the market declined for months, eventually finding strong support around the $170B level. After forming a higher low and a clear change of character (CHOCH), the market entered a sustained bullish phase. For 124 consecutive days, we witnessed a strong altcoin rally. As of now, price action appears to be mirroring that same structure — but with a potential to push even higher than the previous ATH. In this scenario, the target stands around the $470B level. As long as OTHERS holds above the $170B support, the altcoin market remains in recovery mode, and further upside is very much on the table. — Thanks for reading.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by vs_sayin
5
BTC/USD – 4H Quick AnalysisBTC just broke above the bearish OTE zone from the major retracement between 109K and 74K, confirming a strong bullish breakout. 📈 This aggressive move has shifted the market structure firmly to the upside, with momentum clearly in favor of buyers. 🔎 If we extend the Fibonacci levels from this breakout, the next major targets could be around the 130K region and potentially higher, assuming the current momentum holds. 💥 This breakout also indicates that liquidity has been reclaimed without a deep pullback, suggesting that buyers are confidently stepping in without waiting for lower prices. ⚠️ Key observations: No significant liquidity sweep below recent lows before the breakout – a sign of aggressive buying. Strong rejection of the FVG 4H, now acting as support if retested. Clear break of the bearish OTE, removing a major supply level from the market structure. 👉 As long as the price holds above 100K, the path to 130K+ seems increasingly likely, with minimal resistance in the way.
VANTAGE:BTCUSDLong
by rAodto100k
2
Nasdaq US100 Wave 3 Expansion Toward 31,606 in PlayNasdaq US100 has completed a significant wave cycle with a confirmed wave 1 in the broader Elliott Wave structure. Following this, price underwent a corrective wave 2 that extended from the $22,237 supply zone down to $16,334, marking the conclusion of the previous cycle’s correction. This structure now signals the initiation of a fresh upward impulse, setting the stage for a powerful wave 3 advance. The emergence of wave 3 will gain full confirmation once price successfully breaks above the external supply zone, reclaiming $22,237. If this breakout occurs with sustained momentum, the wave 3 projection targets an expansion toward $31,606, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the prior cycle. This forthcoming rally is anticipated to unfold in a five-subwave format, indicative of a high-momentum bullish leg. As long as price action remains above the key support at $16,334, the bullish cycle remains valid. All eyes should now be on the breakout structure and volume profile around $22,237, as it represents the gateway to a much broader impulsive move.
CFI:US100Long
by weslad
6
[ TimeLine ] Gold 5-6 May 2025📅 Today is Friday, May 2, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: May 5, 2025 (Monday) or May 5 & 6, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday) 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes: ✅ Gold has undergone a significant reversal of over 2000 pips, from its ATH of 3500 down to 3200 ⚠️ If the upcoming Hi-Lo range is wide, consider reversal entries or setups based on Fibonacci retracement levels ✅ I will personally be trading both signals as part of my research and ongoing strategy ⚠️ If you're risk-averse or uncertain, it’s okay to skip the May 5–6 signals 📋 Execution Plan: 🔹 Wait for the price range from the selected candles to fully form (marked by green lines on the chart) 🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, including a 60-pip buffer 🔹 If SL is hit, cut/switch and double the position on the next valid setup for potential recovery 📉📈 Chart Reference: 🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL: TV/x/C5zZyXar/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
EUR/USD Breakdown - Lesson in IDMTook a Loss here by misreading IDM on the 4H. Price was Breaking Highs, so I leaned bullish, but didn't wait for that full IDM sequence to confirm. Lesson: Take a few extra minutes to read the Higher TimeFrames Properly. No Rush. This week's blueprint is simple: patience, clean structure, strong inducement first. Also noting pair correlations: XAU/USD, EU, AND GU tend to move together. GJ/UJ on their own rhythm. #SmartMoneyConcepts #IDM #ForexDiscipline #ChartStudy #GrowthMindset
Long
by Juicemannn
BTC Elliott wave analysis 5/9/2025 (Big Picture)For me, I think that we are going to the End the wave 5 of the BTC Supercycle . As you can see , the wave that we are now have very small accumulation making it should be wave 5 rather than the begining of new cycle or the correction wave since both usually have large accumulation.The Gann fan suggest that the End of the wave 5 should be around 128,000$-132,000$. And after the time that it finish the wave 5 it would be coincided with the depression that many economist suggest that it would happen.Surprisingly, It also coinside with the Modern Elliott Wave theory suggesting that a Grand Supercycle wave five is nearing completion in the 21st century, likely leading to the deepest economic downturn since the 1700s.
Long
by jirapattinn
Temporal Aspect of FractalityIn this publication, I would like to bring some clarity to the series of my unconventional analysis. At this stage of my research I have no doubt that market's natural growth patterns can be defined by historic range and power exponents of Phi. Essentially, it's just two overall fib channels that cover structural boundaries of bullruns from ATH to new ATH mapped to bottom as 3rd coordinate. When we have angle of fibs derived from chronological highs, the ratios would cover the levels of oscillation from price scale perspective. Whereas the temporal aspect of fractality, requires looking for frequency of reversals in price dynamics. So instead of connecting pivots of same classification, we interconnect opposite points of extremes in order to tune fib direction to the angle of trend and map 3 coordinate to next swing point. This way the spacings that come with the fib proportions would indicate rhythm of trend occurrence. The primary objective of this publication is to expose traders to the forces underlying market behavior. Specifically for illustrating temporal rhythms, the end result seen in interactive chart looks like a more simplified version of works i've shared earlier.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
5