The Day Ahead Key Economic Data & Events – March 31
US: Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed manufacturing index
China: Official PMIs (Manufacturing & Services)
UK: Lloyds Business Barometer, Consumer Credit, M4 (Money Supply)
Japan: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts
Germany: CPI, Retail Sales, Import Prices
Italy: CPI
Central Banks: ECB’s Panetta & Villeroy speak
Relevance to Trading:
US, China, and Germany data impact equities, bonds, and FX (USD, CNY, EUR).
Inflation data (CPI) from Germany & Italy could influence ECB policy expectations.
PMI & industrial production data provide insights into global economic health.
ECB speakers may signal policy direction, affecting EUR volatility.
Economicdata
The Day Ahead: Market Focus & Key EventsKey Market Events – Friday, March 28
U.S. Data:
February PCE (Core & Headline): Key Fed inflation gauge—high impact on rate expectations.
Personal Income & Spending: Consumer strength insights.
March Kansas City Fed Services Activity: Regional business sentiment.
Europe:
UK February Retail Sales: Consumer demand check.
Germany March Unemployment, April GfK Consumer Confidence: Labor market & sentiment indicators.
France March CPI, PPI: Inflation signals.
Italy March Consumer, Manufacturing, & Economic Sentiment + Industrial Sales & PPI: Growth outlook.
Eurozone March Economic Confidence: Broad sentiment gauge.
Canada:
January GDP: Growth momentum ahead of BoC policy decisions.
Central Banks:
Fed’s Barr & Bostic Speeches: Potential rate clues.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey: Inflation & policy sentiment.
Trading Focus:
PCE data → USD, Treasuries, equities move on inflation implications.
Retail sales, GDP → FX volatility (GBP, CAD).
Confidence & inflation prints → EUR crosses & bond yields.
Fed/ECB speakers → Interest rate expectations shift.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead: Market Focus & Key Events Macro Data Releases:
US: February pending home sales, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, March Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims
China: February industrial profits
Japan: March Tokyo CPI
Eurozone: February M3 money supply
Central Bank Speakers & Policy Updates:
Fed: Barkin speaks
BoJ: March meeting summary of opinions
ECB: Guindos, Villeroy, Wunsch, Escriva, Schnabel speak
BoE: Dhingra speaks
Norges Bank: Rate decision
Earnings Watch:
H&M, Lululemon
Fixed Income Auctions:
US Treasury: 7-year Notes
Other Notable Reports:
US CBO releases The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055
Market Impact Considerations:
FX: Fed and BoE commentary could drive volatility in GBP/USD, while Norges Bank’s decision may influence EUR/NOK.
Equities: H&M and Lululemon earnings could impact retail sentiment.
Bonds: The 7-year Treasury auction and US macro data may guide Treasury yields.
Commodities: China’s industrial profits and Japan’s CPI could influence risk sentiment and commodity demand.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day AheadWednesday March 26
Data: US February durable goods orders, UK February CPI, RPI, January house price index, France March consumer confidence, Australia February CPI
Central banks: Fed's Musalem and Kashkari speak, ECB's Villeroy and Cipollone speak, BoC summary of deliberations from the March meeting
Earnings: Dollar Tree, RENK
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN, US 5-yr Notes
Other: US CBO Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit report, UK spring statement
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Tuesday March 25
Data: US March Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, January FHFA house price index, February new home sales, China 1-yr MLF rate, Japan February PPI services, Germany March Ifo survey, EU27 February new car registrations
Central banks: Fed’s Williams and Kugler speak, ECB's Kazimir, Nagel, Holzmann and Vujcic speak
Auctions: US 2-yr Notes
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Tuesday March 18
Data: US February industrial production, capacity utilisation, building permits, housing starts, import and export price index, March New York Fed services business activity, Japan January core machine orders, Tertiary industry index, February trade balance, Germany March Zew survey, Italy January trade balance, Eurozone March Zew survey, January trade balance, Canada February CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Rehn and Escriva speak
Earnings: Xiaomi, XPeng
Auctions: US 20-yr Bond
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Economic Data due this week:
Monday: US retail sales (February), China industrial production and retail sales (January to February).
Tuesday: Germany economic sentiment (March). Earnings: XPeng.
Wednesday: US interest rate decision, Japan interest rate decision.
Thursday: UK unemployment rate (January), UK interest rate decision.
Earnings: Nike, FedEx, Lululemon, Micron, Accenture.
Friday: Japan inflation (February), Earnings: NIO.
The Day Ahead Friday March 14
Data: US March University of Michigan survey, UK January monthly GDP, Germany January current account balance, Italy January industrial production, general government debt, Canada January manufacturing sales
Central banks: ECB's Cipollone speaks
Earnings: BMW, Daimler Truck Holding
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead - ECB Speak & US Jobless ClaimsThursday March 13
Data: US February PPI, initial jobless claims, Q4 household change in net worth, UK February RICS house price balance, Italy Q4 unemployment rate, Canada January building permits
Central banks: ECB's Guindos, Holzmann, Villeroy and Nagel speak
Earnings: Enel, Generali, Dollar General
Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead - US Inflation Wednesday March 12
Data: US February CPI, federal budget balance
Central banks: BoC decision, ECB's Lagarde, Villeroy, Escriva, Nagel and Lane speak
Earnings: Adobe, Rheinmetall, Porsche, Inditex, Puma
Auctions: US 10-yr Note
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day AheadTuesday March 11
Data: US February NFIB small business optimism, January JOLTS report, Japan February machine tool orders, PPI
Central banks: ECB’s Rehn speaks
Earnings: Volkswagen, Partners Group
Auctions: US 3-yr Notes
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Monday March 10
Data: US February NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan February Economy Watchers survey, M2, M3, January household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany January industrial production, trade balance, Italy January PPI, Sweden January GDP indicator, Denmark and Norway February CPI
Central banks: ECB’s Nagel speaks
Earnings: Oracle
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 07th March '25 US Jobs Report DayFriday March 7
Data: US February jobs report, January consumer credit, China February foreign reserves, trade balance, Germany January factory orders, France January trade balance, current account balance, Canada February jobs report, Q4 capacity utilisation rate
Central banks: Fed's Powell, Kugler, Bostic, Bowman and Williams speak, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel, Knot, Panetta, Kazaks and Centeno speak, BoE's Mann speaks
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 06 March ‘25Thursday March 6
Data: US January trade balance, wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK February construction PMI, Germany February construction PMI, Eurozone January retail sales, Canada January international merchandise trade, Sweden February CPI
Central banks: ECB's decision, Fed's Waller speaks, BoE's DMP survey
Earnings: Broadcom, Costco, JD.com, Merck KGaA, Universal Music Group, Reckitt Benckiser, Hewlett Packard Enterprise
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 05th March ’25 Wednesday March 5
Data: US February ISM services, ADP report, January factory orders, China February Caixin services PMI, UK February new car registrations, official reserves changes, France January industrial production, Italy February services PMI, January retail sales, Eurozone January PPI, Canada Q4 labor productivity, Australia Q4 GDP, Switzerland February CPI
Central banks: Fed's Beige Book, BoJ's Uchida speaks, BoE's Bailey, Pill, Greene and Taylor speak
Earnings: Marvell, adidas, Zscaler, Bayer, Sandoz, Abercrombie & Fitch
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 04th March 25Tuesday March 4
Data: Japan February consumer confidence index, France January budget balance, Italy January unemployment rate, Eurozone January unemployment rate
Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks
Earnings: Crowdstrike, Sea, Flutter Entertainment, Thales, Ashtead, On Holding, Davide Campari-Milano
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead Monday March 3
Data: US February ISM index, total vehicle sales, January construction spending, China February Caixin manufacturing PMI, UK January net consumer credit, M4, Japan January jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, Q4 MoF survey, February monetary base, Italy February manufacturing PMI, new car registrations, budget balance, Eurozone February CPI, Canada February manufacturing PMI
Central banks: Fed's Musalem speaks
Earnings: Okta, AST SpaceMobile
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 27th Feb ’25Thursday Feubrary 27
Data: US January durable goods orders, pending home sales, February Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, initial jobless claims, Japan February Tokyo CPI, January retail sales, industrial production, France February PPI, Italy February consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, December industrial sales, Eurozone January M3, February economic confidence, Canada Q4 current account balance, Switzerland Q4 GDP
Central banks: ECB's account of the January meeting, Fed's Schmid, Barr, Bowman, Hammack, Harker and Barkin speak
Earnings: Iberdrola, AXA, Dell, LSEG, Autodesk, Rolls-Royce, Vistra, Monster Beverage, Eni, Haleon, Engie, Warner Bros Discovery, Telefonica, Endeavor
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 26th Feb ‘25Wednesday February 26
Data: US January new home sales, Germany March GfK consumer confidence, France February consumer confidence, Australia January CPI
Central banks: Fed's Barkin and Bostic speak, BoE's Dhingra speaks
Earnings: Nvidia, Salesforce, Deutsche Telekom, TJX, AB InBev, Synopsys, CRH, Snowflake, Stellantis, E.ON, Novonesis, TKO, Paramount Global
Auctions: US 2-yr FRN, 7-yr Notes
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The Day Ahead 25th Feb ‘25 February Tuesday 25
Data: US February Conference Board consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, Dallas Fed services activity, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, December FHFA house price index, Q4 house price purchase index, Germany Q4 GDP detail, EU27 January new car registrations
Central banks: Fed's Logan, Barr and Barkin speak, ECB's Schnabel and Nagel speak, BoE's Pill speaks
Earnings: Home Depot, Intuit, Workday, Coupang, ASM
Auctions: US 5-yr Notes
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
UK Employment and Inflation Numbers Ahead; GBP/USD Drifting ArouWhile the UK is evading US tariffs for now, its economy continues to face a somewhat undecided future, with taxes on business set to increase in April and a lingering drag from the elevated interest rates.
However, this week’s focus shifts to a rather busy slate of economic data in the UK. Regarding tier-1 metrics, I will largely focus on Tuesday’s employment figures for December 2024 and the January CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) report on Wednesday. The data comes on the heels of last week’s better-than-expected GDP (Gross Domestic Product) numbers for December 2024.
BoE: ‘Gradual and Careful’ Approach
You will recall that the Bank of England (BoE) recently cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50% – which did not raise too many eyebrows – and the BoE Governor signalled a ‘gradual and careful’ approach to easing policy. However, the 7-2 MPC vote split (Monetary Policy Committee) caused a stir. BoE member Catherine Mann – a known hawk – joined Swati Dhingra (dove) and voted to cut the Bank Rate by 50 bps.
The central bank also released updated quarterly projections revealing an upward revision to inflation and weaker GDP, and it forecasted that the Bank Rate would remain higher for longer. Inflation is expected to rise by 2.8% in Q1 25 (versus 2.4% in the previous forecast) and increase by 3.0% in Q1 26 (versus 2.6% in the previous forecast), followed by inflation cooling back to the BoE’s 2.0% target in 2027. GDP growth is now expected to grow by 0.4% in Q1 25 (down from 1.4% in the prior forecasts), with economic activity predicted to grow by 1.5% in Q1 26. The BoE also estimates that the Bank Rate will remain around 4.5% in Q1 25 but likely fall to 4.2% in Q1 26, against previous forecasts for 3.7%. Markets are currently pricing another 57 bps worth of cuts this year (little more than two rate cuts).
UK Employment and Inflation Data Eyed
UK employment numbers will be released tomorrow at 7:00 am GMT and are expected to show unemployment ticked higher to 4.5% between October to December 2024, up from 4.4% in November. In terms of wages, both regular pay and pay that includes bonuses are forecast to increase by 5.9% on a year-on-year basis (YY), up from 5.6%. However, while market participants will widely watch the jobs report, which can prove market moving, it is essential to remember the validity of the survey’s data remains in question.
Wednesday welcomes the January CPI inflation data at 7:00 am GMT, which is expected to reveal increasing price pressures across key measures. Headline YY CPI inflation is forecast to increase by 2.8% (from December’s reading of 2.5% ), consistent with the BoE’s updated forecasts. The current estimate range is between a high of 2.9% and a low of 2.4%. YY core CPI inflation – excluding volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco items – is estimated to have increased by 3.7%, up from 3.2% in December (estimate range between 3.8% and 3.3%). Regarding services inflation, the YY print is anticipated to rise by nearly a whole percentage point to 5.2%, compared to December’s reading of 4.4%. A rise in price pressures, particularly data that meets or exceeds upper estimates, could prompt investors to pare back rate-cut bets this year. This also places the central bank in a somewhat difficult position, given that it not only reduced the Bank Rate last week, but two MPC members also voted for an outsized 50 bp reduction.
GBP/USD: Monthly Bullish Engulfing Formation?
The monthly chart shows price is on the verge of pencilling in a bullish engulfing pattern from support at US$1.2173 (textbook engulfing patterns focus on the real bodies, not the upper and lower shadows). Monthly resistance demands attention overhead at US$1.2715, with a break of this barrier likely paving the way north for further outperformance towards another layer of monthly resistance coming in at US$1.3111.
Interestingly, buyers and sellers are squaring off at resistance from US$1.2608 on the daily timeframe. The supply area directly to the left of current price (red area) was weak (as noted in a previous piece I posted), with technical buying gathering steam from retesting trendline resistance-turned-support, extended from the high of US$1.3428.
If inflation comes in broadly higher than expected, this will likely underpin a bid in the GBP/USD (British pound versus the US dollar) and perhaps pull the currency pair beyond current daily resistance towards the monthly resistance mentioned above at US$1.2715, closely shadowed by another layer of daily resistance at US$1.2752.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
All Employees to Population Flashing CAUTION!As I have been saying in chat. It is hard to increase revenues, profits, and EPS without more workers producing. We have seen that reality play out in the data. Deporting prime-age labor and imposing taxes on ourselves is certainly not going to help. There is only so much output an economy is capable of. Giving tax cuts to the rich certainly won't change how much output an economy can generate. Reciprocating tariffs certainly won't help exporters grow profit or create jobs.
Caution is in order!
US DOLLAR STILL STRONG BULLISHUS DOLLAR potentially continue it's strong bullish movement as several economic data released last week show us strong labor and inflation is still under control. This week we will face FED Meeting on 18 Dec and FED FUND FUTURES gives 96% number of lower rates (425-450 bps).
In general, interest rate cut will give a weak movement for dollar. But, as a good trader, we must know that FED cut rate is a normalization that driven by optimism that inflation is under control and labor market remain strong. This is the reason why dollar still in a strong condition.
Technically, dollar could go up to 109.6xx and i see 105.6xx as a invalid level for buyer to hold dollar. And please be careful for you who hold counter currency of dollar (AUDUSD, EURUSD, etc) in long position because those pairs still driven by strong bearish movement.