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Economics

Big countrend move if EUR/USD breaks 1.20NFP on Friday (Actual 148k against forecasted 190k), with hourly earnings as forecasted at 0.3%. This weaker than expected economic data resulted in a weaker USD, with USDCAD dropping 140pips within the hour. However, this employment report also indicates steady improvement in the labour market, with no signs of overheating. Therefore, we can still expect the FED to maintain course for 3 rate hikes in 2018, signaling gradual USD strength.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
2
Gold Downtrend Due To Economic EventsEveryone is aware that Gold is a 'save haven' for forex traders when economic results are bearish for a certain asset. Meaning, when some economies are performing well, Gold will reciprocate and also become bearish themselves. This can be seen through the past two daily candle sticks after Germany, one of the top 7 economies, showed positive unemployment. -12K people were foretasted to be unemployed, although it turned out to be -29K people unemployed. The ramification of these results mean that there is an even more employment surplus than there was before. This will surely appreciate the value of the EUR. As well as this positive result for the EUR, the USD has shown some bullish sentiment as well, this is due to the ISM response results. The ISM is ultimately the percentage of supply executives for industrial companies give out their numbers on exports and imports. It was foretasted by analysts that 58.1% of supply executives will give out their trade numbers, although it was actually 59.7%, this is a bullish sentiment for the USD as more than expected supply executives are confident in their trade numbers. To round up this analysis, Gold will show a short term downtrend due to Germany's appealing unemployment changes and USA's ISM responses.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AI_Expert_Advisor
Fundamental analysis for U.S. Crude Oil Inventories One of the economic releases of the day was the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories which helps measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The way it works is that the amount of inventories helps influence the price petroleum products which can have an encounter with the inflation rates. Traders have got two things which they have to consider and one of them will be to see if increase in crude inventories is more than expected. This will show that the demand is weak which will result in a bearish for crude prices. The other thing that the traders will look will be the opposite which will be to see if a fall in inventories is gonna be less than predicted. So if the if the increase in crude is less than expected this indicates a greater demand which will mean that it will be bullish for crude prices. The economic news about crude oil came out at 15:30 and the previous forecast was -5.117M and the predicted forecast for today was -3.769M. However, as soon as the economic news was reported, it showed that the actual forecast is -6.495M. As it shows on the chart, the candlestick was a bullish candlestick which meant that traders would have gone long on this particular trade.
by LDForex_
USDCAD heading lower?Release of economic data for CAD - Employment change - GDP m/m - Unemployment rate I don't think believe just employment data alone would have a big impact on price. However, if we see positive employment data pair with a positive GDP data, AND price being resisted from the 1.29 level. It is more likely to see price drop towards that price could drop, towards the 1.2780 level. BUT it is also important to note the recent weakness in the USD during the NY sessions.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
Two options with EURUSD; more sided with short.I am more leaning towards the sell because of economic principles; The European Central Bank as decreased its bond buy activity which means they are pumping less money supply into the economy and in other terms, since they are not spending money in buying bonds, GDP must decrease to some extent if all other variables are constant. The formula for GDP is = C + I + G + (X - M). G is the government spending. So if all other things are relatively the same, and the government spends less money, GDP has to decrease so therefore the value of the Euro has to decrease as well since the value depends on GDP as well as other factors. That is just my economic reasoning. "The European Central Bank said Thursday it would carry on buying government bonds deep into next year but in reduced monthly amounts , a milestone policy shift that signals it will follow the U.S. Federal Reserve on a path toward higher interest rates." -The Wall Street Journal
Short
by DennisPTran07
RBA Cash Rate....Non Event?.... BUT..Although November is historically a month where interest rates have moved frequently, I believe the RBA is most likely to retain a neutral policy bias, keeping interest rates at 1.50% with additional indication that rates are likely to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future, as the low level of interest rates continues to support the Australian economy. While we might see slight optimism in the RBA's view of the economy, the overall economic/inflationary performance is still relatively week. Therefore, although the interest rate is not expected to change, I expect a slightly dovish RBA.
Short
by JinDao_Tai