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Economics

COVID-19 - Evolutionary Curve ForecastIdea for COVID-19: - We believe that the fight against COVID-19 has entered the mid game. - Can COVID-19 be beaten in the game of evolution? We think so. Viruses are rational actors, and will behave as a population in the interests of their evolutionary fitness. - While the media's narrative of "wave 3" of COVID-19 has spread and is widely known, Motive Wave 2 of COVID-19 will begin in June 2021 (new wave 1 2 3), which will end at the end of 2022. Speculation: - Global vaccinations and pandemic responses have introduced strong selective pressure on the virus since the beginning of the year. - From summer to the end of the year, the virus will select a new dominant variant to dominate. Expectations for the end of Motive Wave 2 (2022-2023): - Uncontrolled Growth: 1.3 Billion+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths. - Infectivity and Vaccine resistance: 900 Million+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths. - Lethality: 470 Million+ infected, 16.4 Million+ deaths. - Severity/and or Vaccine resistance (without infectivity): 320 Million+ infected, 10.9 Million+ deaths. - Successful Vaccination: Infection should drop rapidly, but 5.4 Million+ deaths. To model total deaths , we fit the % curve of the moving average: Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
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by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
McDonalds Ponzied - Rising Rates Environment - Volume MIAAlways up. Buys only. Bla Bla. The MCD in our town just upgraded to a double lane drive thru. Is that a clue? Large caps gobbled up all the smalls. I liked our mom n pops too. Shame. MCD ate them all. So sad. Time to pay their fair share! Corporate tax rates will get the hike they deserve. *Revenues from abroad. Shipped from abroad. Expenses abroad. wow. Milkshakes on backorder from where??? Shame. Large cap Stonks. Hold for broke in a rising rate environment. Go small Caps!! #MSOgang
NYSE:MCDShort
by EpicEconomics
AUD Versus NZD: A Fundamental Outlook and TradeFundamentals: It has been a hawkish month for the Reserve Bank of Australia. The recent meeting suggests that their guidance ramps up into a more hawkish tone. Both monetary and fiscal policies are aussie positive, so far. One thing I keep in mind is their fiscal policy in response to the current covid-19 lockdowns. I believe that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is overly hawkish, given their currency price. For the next few weeks, the AUD currency give us a more underdog positioning to exploit versus the NZD currency. Technicals: (1) Monthly support (2) 61.8% fib (3) Oversold indicators (4) Divergence (5) RSI at extreme levels Daily: Weekly:
Long
by Rocketman
Greenlane Holdings - Double Bottom - Cannabis Reform LegislationIf this $30 stock double bottoms on a dollar..... All-in! Epic Economics. Mr. Market presents opportunities. Not of the Crypto Ponzi Pog type. It's #cannabisboom2021 time. $GNLN #thegem It's IPO was $17 in April 2019 and hit $29 same day. They're twice as big when Kushco Mega Merger is completed. Anything under the IPO will be a steal. Elon's $DOGE pup #failarmy stole #420day. We're taking it back. Cannabis Saves Lives.
NASDAQ:GNLNLong
by EpicEconomics
2
Bitcoin Still Going to $20,000? I Wouldn't Bet On It...Bitcoin is a wild stallion that cannot be tamed. I believe if it wasn't for the positivity and confidence about Bitcoin that came out of the B-Word conference we may of continued down a path below $30,000 making a stronger case for the bears. The B-Word conference has definitely lightened the extremely negative sentiment brewing throughout the space. Even the tone from Elon Musk is a drastically different tone than what we heard over 2 months ago which was the major catalyst for the crash in May. We are still not quite out of bear territory yet but this a much better sign of a positive trend and narrative going forward. Without Elon Musk's trolling fear, uncertainty, and doubt tweets or more negative Cryptocurrency news from China it will be harder for the bears to get Bitcoin to their beloved $20,000 levels or lower. But be prepared for anything in cryptocurrency. Getting down to a $20,000 Bitcoin is definitely not impossible, but I believe the longer we build heavy support above $30,000 the more difficult it becomes. $30,000 is looking more and more like the base floor price of a modern day Bitcoin. The more positive sentiment builds up the more difficult it becomes. The only place left to go from being fearful is being back to greedy. Things to consider moving forward: * We're still below the 200 Moving Average on the daily. * We're still trading between $30,000 - $40,000. * We are still fearful on the Fear & Greed Index but out of the Extremely Fearful territory for now. * Ethereum EIP-1559 tentative in August. * Tesla will resume accepting Bitcoin payments in the near future. * We are coming out of negative territory on the weekly MACD (But we're still very high on the monthly MACD) * Potential Amazon adoption by the end of this year or next year. * We haven't bearishly diverged yet on the monthly MACD ( May still indicate the bear trend and negative price action will be prolonged) * The unclean energy narrative will no longer be a cause of concern in the near future. * More multi-trillion dollar stimuluses to come under the Biden administration and worldwide governments. * Global money supply continues to drastically expand at unprecedented rates in history. Where do we go form here? We want to see a retest of $42,500 on the and break past that price level to start a strong new continuation of the bull market. If we can't break past that there's always the possibility of going back to $29,000 levels. This is still very much a wait and see. We will get through this! But as I've been saying. The fundamentals going forward are way more bullish than bearish. Much peace, love, health and wealth!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by peacefuljustin
1
Bitcoin Start Of New Multi-Year Bear Market? I Don't Think So...There have been many people calling for a sub $20,000 Bitcoin and the start of a new multi-year bear market? I do not believe that will be the likely scenario considering we have already crashed and the major selloffs have already happened. I highlighted the 3 most major sell of volume sticks since 2017. It has been clear this period has been turning out to be a consolidation phase in the market as we continue to move sideways waiting for a strong move to the downside or upside. Consider this: * Buy and sell volume has been getting very low. * We now have over 200 days of support trading above $30,000 * We only have 28 days of support between $18k - $20k. * $30,000 is a way stronger and more important support level than $20,000. * Tesla has not dumped their Bitcoin Holdings. * Intuitions are still more interested in Bitcoin than ever before despite the volatility and crash. * Bitcoin hash rate has slowly been recovering. * This is the longest period of extreme fear registered from The Fear & Greed Index ( We are still continuing to be extremely fearful). * Bitcoin mining is continuing to become more renewable and miners have been re-locating mining outside of China at a rapid rate. * On Chain Metrics indicate large whale addresses have been accumulating between $28k - $30k. * This most recent crash has been the biggest in crypto history considering the amount of money that has left the space (1 Trillion in under a month). * Countries adopting Bitcoin as legal tender will continue to grow. * Bitcoin is becoming more desensitized to Elon Musk and China FUD. * Crypto luxury transactions accelerate at Sotheby's. * Sotheby's recently sold a rare 101.38-carat diamond for $12.3 million in cryptocurrency. I say all of this because market sentiment is what drives price. This market has matured greatly since the last bear market. We will come out of this state of extreme fear, uncertainty, and doubt in the months to come. We are now back at them bottom of $30k. Can we go lower? Yes but how low? We're still in a downtrend and the charts are pointing down. Expect another drop to $28k as long as we're still in this phase. I don't believe we are starting a multi year bear market "just yet". The fundamentals going forward are more way more bullish than bearish throughout the rest of this year. If you're at a loss I'd just say continue to HODL through this and be patient. Think about the bigger picture and believe in your investment. This is the future of economics and finance. The bears want you to sell at these lower prices and want you to believe Bitcoin is back on its death bed. Most of my portfolio is staked throughout this period. Much peace, love, health, and wealth everybody.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by peacefuljustin
GBPJPY 21-1 Snipe EntryThis is a set up I saw on the 1 hour time frame and after some lower timeframe analysis I realized this is an ideal entry on GJ. After missed expectations on Japanese unemployment numbers, I was expecting a retrace back above 153.550, this was not the case. GBPJPY had a sharp selloff and has stair-stepped back into an area I consider safe for a long. Something that sparked my interest was that British home prices pushed up 13.4% YoY which is great for economic breadth. Today Britain also has monthly M4 Money supply reports and consumer lending data which could help contribute to understanding of this being inflationary or growth backed price changes.
Long
by crawfordpaul
2