Get started

Economy

S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index exhibited remarkable strength, with consistent price momentum throughout. The index managed to surpass our Key Resistance level of 4639 and Inner Index Rally level of 4647, finally resting at the completion of Inner Index Rally level of 4713. Looking ahead, the following two targets for an upward trend are the completed Outer Index Rally level of 4807 and the Key Resistance of 4800. Both price levels were created on June 4th, 2022. However, there are some concerns about a market squeeze from the current completed Inner Index Rally 4713 that might cause a transient pullback. In such a scenario, the index could move downward and reset itself to the Mean Support level of 4644. This level is considered a strong support level for the index and can provide an opportunity for traders and investors to make a suitable entry decision.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar currency pair has shown a strong rebound in the recent trading session, climbing to reach our previously identified Inner Currency Rally level of 1.099. However, this was followed by a sharp reversal, with the price dropping rapidly. The current price action indicates that the Eurodollar is likely to continue on a downward trend, with the designated target levels being Mean Sup 1.075 and Inner Currency Dip of 1.068. Overall, it's crucial to stay vigilant and informed about the ever-changing dynamics of the Eurodollar market to make the most of the opportunities it presents.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout this week's trading session, Bitcoin has been trading within a specific range, defined by two fundamental values: the Completed Outer Coin Rally 44500 and Mean Res 44100. This range has created a level of stability in the market and has allowed for some predictability in the short term. The market is on an upward trend that is expected to continue. Bitcoin is projected to reach the newly established intermediary Mean Res 43100 and surpass it in the coming days. In a downturn, the intermediate target is the robust Mean Sup 41200. This is a crucial level for traders to watch, representing a solid support level for Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
The Digital Economy Ushers in A Long Term Bull Market CycleI received my CMT charter long ago, when chartered market technician candidates could write a thesis that had potential to change the body of knowledge of Technical Analysis. It did and it continues to serve me and my students well. It was called "Cycle Evolution Theory" and my specialty is in the long-term cycles of emerging displacement technologies that change society, the economy and the stock market. So this is an especially exciting time in the history of the stock market to be teaching trading and investing, during a major shift I have been preparing my students for over the last few years. The stock market is rallying to new highs as a NEW Bull Market is underway. There will be minor retracements from time to time, but the long-term uptrend has begun. The Bull Market Cycles of the past have lasted about 13 years. Cycle experts believe this Bull Market will last longer because there are over 20 new technologies moving into the Market Acceptance Phase all around the same time. It’s not just Artificial Intelligence. Several new technologies are changing the economy of the US to a DIGITAL Economy, the first in the history of all the various economic types. A Digital Economy derives its primary growth and expansion not from manufacturing, not from consumer buying of products and services, but from the STOCK MARKET. In this new economy, the middle class may get left behind if they don’t learn how to use trading and investments to maintain and build wealth. See the attached NASDAQ:IXIC NASDAQ Composite Chart that shows the long-term bull market cycles of this index using the DPO indicator on a monthly scale. The Cycles show: the topping and Peak of the 2009–2020 Bull Market. a second extreme Peak in 2021 after the speculative run up out of the shortest bear market in history due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. the intermediate term correction in 2022. and now a new Trough is completed for the beginning of the next Bull Market. The Bull Market of the late 1980s to the year 2000 was extremely steep for the NASDAQ, as it had the 6 new technology industry stocks of that time as components. The Bull Market of 2003–2008 was not a new technology market period but a Real Estate Market boom, so the NASDAQ had minimal gains. The Bull Market of 2009–2020 was created by the new technology of the Cloud, Platform as a Service (PaaS), Software as a Service (SaaS), the Internet of Everything (IoE), sensors, semiconductors, electronics, and more. This next Bull Market has 20+ new technologies. When there are new technologies coming to market, there are the best opportunities for trading and investing in the stock market. PLUS, there is always a silver lining to a global pandemic cycle, and that is the empirical historical fact that after every major pandemic, there is a growth era of new technologies, new social reforms, and new approaches to problems that lead to widespread economic prosperity. A pandemic is very similar to a World War in its impact on social norms, health, government, the distribution of wealth, education, and individual identity. Most of the 140 industries in the US financial markets will be impacted by a huge number of displacement technologies. These are far more extensive and disruptive than in the new technology era of the 1980s–1990s. Learning about these new technologies will help you trade or invest in stocks with knowledge and confidence in the next long-term Bull Market. How many of the 20+ new technologies coming to market can YOU name? The stocks of companies who are working on or using these new technologies and that are poised for dominance in the next bull market cycle will have Dark Pool accumulation patterns concentrated at the trough of the next upward cycle. So I've referenced some of the posts where I've featured these patterns below. Trade Wisely,
NASDAQ:IXIC
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
2
US Financial Markets facing CPI after US Down-Graded to AA+- Emerging Markets are in a paranoid state due to Major US Financial Markets nearing scheduled date of CPI numbers releasing day. Consensus forecasts are anticipating Inflation to steadily go up for the rest of 2023 and entering '24 10'th of August/23 will be a very important day for The Global Financial Markets. Casualties might follow soon due to the turbulence of this frenzy economic environment created. Is US about to enter a recession ? Or do you believe Powell's joke of 'Soft Landing' How about another joke Powell ... Note that US technically had entered recession by two negative consecutive Quarters, however, it got 'saved' by promising growing employment numbers. Seems like Feds are masters at postponing cascading tragedies, great tricksters filled with riddles. With Euro-Zone being officially in Recession for a while now, it's just a matter of time for US fate to be sealed. Why learn economics !? Broader and clearer pictures to strategize your investing/positioning and smaller time frames trading decisions, be it swings, intradays or scalps. Seems like it is enough today for a good poker player and a gambler to trade the markets. How many times can you get lucky in repetitive motion and consider making in to trading for a living ?! Not long . Open your horizons and explore financial literacy to be more in touch with Facade of Financial Markets.
TVC:SPX
by Mr_J__fx
BTC 4 Year Cycle with TA giving 40k @ Xmas 2023 - 220k Sep 2024Before I start a couple of Historical Teasers: BTC is Finite in Volume - 21,000,000. BTC has transitioned from a little known FAD, scam, criminal entity with no value to one of a globally recognised and trusted P2P currency with with huge potential for storage of value (Digital Gold). Everything is going Digital and that includes all currencies. This chart speaks volumes from a technical analysis point of view with the following indicators being highlighted: 1 - "The Trend is your Friend" - Light Blue ATH & ATL Trend Lines. 2 - Four Year Cycle between Peaks. Light Grey Sine Wave. 3 - Trend Crossing Channels (Trends). Lime Green Lines with angle of ascent in Blue. The ATH & ATL Trend Lines are important as to break through one indicates serious change. Whilst this may seem obvious it is important to note that the longer a trend line the greater its strength. For BTC to go below the ATL Trend Line would require a very serious (Global?) event to occur. On a long term basis, successful quoted instruments will often traverse from the ATL Trend Line to the ATH Trend Line in rapid steps followed by a lengthy period of horizontal steps until it reaches the next ATL Trend Line point. (There are obviously fluctuations during this period). BTC IMO is starting it's 3rd Cycle (Transition) from the ATL Trend Line to the ATH Trend Line. If correct we will see 40K by Christmas this year (23) and 220k by 9th September 2024. And if the above TA isn't enough just look at where we are outside of TA? We're talking Inflation, Wars, Spot ETFs and so on. 40k by Xmas 220k by Sep 2024 - Love to All and Peace on Earth.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Erasmus
7
Macro Monday 22 - ISM Services Vs PMI US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (ISM Services) Next Release: 5th December 2023 (released on third business day of each month) The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (“ISM Services”) encompasses a wide range of services across various industries. The index is designed to measure the economic activity and health of the services sector in the United States some of which are professional services (accounting, legal, etc.), healthcare (hospitals, clinics & other practitioners), accommodation, leisure and food services. Similar to the ISM Manufacturing Index (aka as the Purchasers Managers Index) which surveys producers and manufacturers which we covered in Macro Monday 13, the ISM Services index is also based on surveys conducted on participants in the relevant services sectors noted above. Also similar to the ISM Manufacturing index, the ISM Services is reported as a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion or growth in the sector, while values below 50 suggest contraction. This makes both the ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Services Index easy to compile onto a chart for comparison purposes. The ISM Services Vs ISM Manufacturing Chart The chart demonstrates the following: ▫️ At present ISM Services has been more resilient and is in expansionary territory at 51.8 (above 50) whilst ISM Manufacturing is in contractionary territory below the 50 level at 46.7. ▫️ Both the ISM Services Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index have been in a downward trajectory since 2021. - You can clearly see that since March 2021 the Manufacturing Index has declined from 64.5 down to 46.7 today (Red Line). - Thereafter from November 2021 the ISM Services Index declined from 67.5 down to 51.8 today (Blue Line). ▫️ As you can see on the chart a steep manufacturing decline can often provide advance an warning of a subsequent services decline (grey areas on chart). It’s important to acknowledge that the Manufacturing Index can lead the ISM Services Index. It is important because we discovered in Macro Monday 13 that the Manufacturing Index (AKA Purchaser Managers Index) reading below 42 can provide an advance/confirmation warning of recession, thus more weight could be assigned to the Manufacturing Index than Services Index in predicting a recession (as it appears to lead services direction). For this reason we will review the ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) indications below. The ISM Manufacturing Chart The main findings of the ISM Manufacturing Index (AKA Purchaser Managers Index) From a Recession Perspective ▫️ 11 of the 12 recessions on the chart coincided with a PMI of less than 42. ▫️ 1 recession occurred that did not breach below the 42 level (No. 9 on the chart) From a PMI Perspective ▫️ 12 of the 13 times that the PMI moved below the 42 level, this coincided with a recession. ▫️ 1 time we have had a sub 42 PMI reading without a recession (Between 11 & 12 on the chart). At present we are at a level of 46.7 so we do not currently have a trigger event for a recession but we know exactly what to look for. Based on both historical perspectives, there is an c.92% probability of a recession should a sub 42 PMI level be established, or vice versa, in the event of a recession confirmation there is a c. 92% probability it would coincide with the sub 42 PMI level. Timing ISM Manufacturing Bottoms o 10 out of 12 PMI Bottoms occurred in Q1 and the remaining two bottoms were in Q2. 83% of the time the PMI bottoms occur in Q1 which is good to know and watch for with Q1 2024 approaching swiftly. o The average PMI Bottom to bottom timeframe over the past 6 cycles is 58 months (Min 37 – Max 86). We are presently at month 44 and month 58 is Jan 2025 (Q1) The ISM New Orders Index (30% of the PMI) Similar to the ISM New Orders Index Chart (covered in Macro Monday 6) which makes up 30% of the Purchaser Managers Index or Manufacturers Index (PMI), we have not reached below the 42 level on this chart either which has provided a 100% confirmation of recession when we have had a definitive move below the 42 level historically. At present we are at 45.5 on this chart and we seem to have a downward trajectory at present unless something changes upon the next data release. In summary, we now know now that the Manufacturers Index (PMI) often leads the Services Index, and we need to pay close attention to the 42 level on both the New orders Index (Makes up 30% of PMI) and the Manufacturing Index (PMI) as a breach below this level on these charts increases the probability of a recession upwards of 92%. We are also now aware that there is a high incidence of the PMI bottoming in Q1 (83% of the time) and occasionally in Q2. These are quarters we can be on high alert for a sub 42 level. The ISM Services PMI is released on the third business day of each month at 10:00 a.m. (EST) or 15:00 GMT. The next release will be on the Tuesday the 5th December 2023. Most of the ISM data releases commence within the first 5 working days of the month. As always folks, I will watch the numbers and keep you informed. All of the above charts are updated on TradingView as data is released. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USNMPMI
by PukaCharts
$CNINTR - Interest Rates Cut- The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. The cuts follow reductions in other interest rates last week. The LPR sets the interest that commercial banks charge their best clients, and serves as the benchmark for household and corporate lending. The one-year rate affects most new and outstanding loans, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of longer term loans, such as mortgages. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy.
ECONOMICS:CNINTR
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the course of this week's trading session, the index remained relatively stable using our strong Mean Sup 4546 as a strategic price platform, notwithstanding moderate gains leading toward the Key Resistance of 4639 and Inner Index Rally of 4647. Moreover, the Inner Index Rally 4647 indicates a strong bullish trend for traders and investors to ponder. Once the market reaches the target price, the resulting squeeze could be substantial and chaotic. As a result, traders and investors should be cautious and attentive during this price action period.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Last week's completion of our Inner Currency Rally of 1.099 continued to drop to strategic Mean Sup 1.084 and is on its way to a significant Mean Sup 1.067 and Inner Currency Dip 1.068 outcome. The current price action suggests a rebound from the letter prices to the designated target Mean Res 1.080. Overall, it is essential to closely monitor the Eurodollar market trend and take appropriate measures within critical price action of the support/resistance and dip result.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has completed our three consecutive Outer Coin Rallies 39200, 41200, and 43700 in this week's trading. On the downside, the intermediate down target is Mean Sup 43100. The subsequent squeeze will likely be Mean Sup 41500. The upside price movement is expected to be aggressive and intense, as the market sentiment is tilted towards bullishness. The market participants will likely be actively buying, leading to a surge in demand for the asset pushing the price higher. However, it is essential to note that the market is volatile and subject to sudden changes, so investors should remain cautious and closely monitor the support and rally outcome price targets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 1, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz index in this week's trading session retested our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 of July 27, 2023, and is moving higher, targeting the Key Res 4630 and Inner Index Rally 4647, respectively. Once the market successfully achieves this target price, the follow-up squeeze will likely be significant and turbulent. Traders and investors should, therefore, be prudent and vigilant during this price action phase.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 1, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: After completing our designated Inner Currency Rally 1.099 target this week's session, the Eurodollar performed as flagged in our EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis for Nov 24 by dropping it to a primary pivotal squeeze to Mean Sup 1.087. The current price action suggests a dead-cat bounce to Mean Res 1.092 with a potential rise to retest the completed Inner Currency Rally 1.099 with a follow-through squeeze.
by TradeSelecter
$US10Y -Important Close *Weekly- US 10 Years Government Bonds(Yield) TVC:US10Y experienced a pull back in the fourth week of August, after having rallied previously for five (5) consecutive Weeks, printing only green *W candlesticks. The Weekly pullback retraced to a Weekly price level of 4.09% for $U10Y (key level marked on dashed green line) We can clearly see TVC:DXY being dragged higher as well during Yields uptrend (indicating a weak and fearful state of other Major Financial Markets). Seen on Weekly Timeframe, we can easily spot a triangle pattern being formed on $US10Y. Triangle Pattern's Apex can be stretched as far as 238Days from where it currently is. In case Pattern is violated to the downside, a considerable Support-Resistance zone lays just underneath dating back ever since 1912. Below that would be the catching up dynamic support of 200EMA on the Weekly, as well the support-trendline coming from Pandemic Lows. TVC:US10Y uptrend resumption seems very likely from here, especially after bouncing at the key level marked on dashed green line. What is more important to be monitored is the correlation of TVC:DXY going higher in the same time with TVC:US10Y . That would be a nightmare scenario for an investor, and a golden opportunity for those who are on the sidelines and waiting to be heavily invested in diversification .
TVC:US10Y
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this week's abbreviated trading session, the S&P 500 index has again shown a constant upward trend. Current price action exhibits a solid indication to hit our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 on July 27, 2023, and move higher to Inner Index Rally #1 4647 and #2 4713, respectively. However, it's important to note that the market may experience transient pullbacks at this level, causing severe drawdown. Once the market successfully achieves these targets, the subsequent squeezes will likely be significant and turbulent. Traders and investors should, therefore, be cautious and watchful during this phase, as it could considerably impact their trading and investment approach.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: After a pullback, the Eurodollar aims for our designated target, Inner Currency Rally 1.099. This comes after the currency repeatedly hit strong Key Res 1.092 in this week's price action. This suggests that the Eurodollar may experience an imminent rally to Inner Currency Rally 1.099 in this upcoming session, potentially bringing it to a primary pivotal squeeze with an extension all the way to Mean Sup 1.087.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Like last week, Bitcoin's price has remained within the 37800 Inner Coin Rally range and the robust 35600 Mean Support level. This indicates that the market has been relatively stable, with neither bulls nor bears having a strong grip on it. On the upside, there is potential for intermediate upward momentum in Bitcoin's price, which could lead to a breakout above the current Inner Coin Rally of 37800. If this occurs, the next price target would be at the Outer Coin Rally #1 of 39200, followed by #2 of 41200 and #3 of 43700. This suggests that there is significant room for expansion in the near future, which could attract more investors/traders to the market. On the downside, the Mean Support level of 35600 is expected to support Bitcoin's price strongly. If the price were to drop, it would likely find support at this level. Overall, the market is consolidating, with prices trading within a relatively narrow two-thousand-dollar range.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
US & Headline CPI - October Release/Overview US CPI US Headline and Core CPI for October both came in lower than expected (decrease). US Headline CPI: YoY – Actual 3.24% / Exp. 3.3% / Prev. 3.7% (Green on chart) US Core CPI: YoY – Actual 4.02% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.13% (Blue on chart) The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 1 – 3% from 2002 – 2020 below. Nice to see the Core CPI come down, almost down, into the moderate historical averages PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
Economic Lessons From 2023We entered 2023 with a pessimistic consensus outlook for U.S. economic performance and for how rapidly inflation might recede. As it happened, there was no recession, and personal consumption posted sustained strength. Inflation, except shelter, declined dramatically from its 2022 peak. The big economic driver in 2023 was job growth. Jobs had recovered all their pandemic losses by mid-2022 and continued to post strong growth in 2023, partly due to many people returning to the labor force. When the economy is adding jobs, people are willing to spend money. The key for real GDP in 2023 was the strong job growth that led to robust personal consumption spending. For 2024, labor force growth and job growth are anticipated by many to slow down from the unexpectedly strong pace of 2023, leading to slower real GDP growth in 2024. And there is still plenty of debate about whether a slowdown in 2024 could turn into a recession. Followers of the inverted yield curve will point out that it was only in Q4 2023 that the yield curve decisively inverted (meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term yields). It is often cited that it takes 12 to 18 months after a yield curve inversion for a recession to commence. Using that math, Q2 2024 would be the time for economic weakness to appear based on this theory. Only time will tell. The rapid pace of inflation receding in the first half of 2023 was a very pleasant surprise. Indeed, inflation is coming under control by virtually every measure except one: shelter. The calculation of shelter inflation is highly controversial for its use of owners’ equivalent rent, which assumes the homeowner rents his house to himself and receives the income. This is an economic fiction that many argue dramatically distorts headline CPI, given that owners’ equivalent rent is 25% of the price index. Once one removes owners’ equivalent rent from the inflation calculation, inflation is only 2%, and one can better appreciate why the Federal Reserve has chosen to pause its rate hikes, even as it keeps its options open to raise rates if inflation were to unexpectedly rise again. The bottom line is that monetary policy reached a restrictive stance in late 2022 and was tightened a little more in 2023. For a data dependent Fed, inflation and jobs data for 2024 will guide us as to what might happen next. Good numbers on inflation or a recession might mean rate cuts. Otherwise, the Fed might just keep rates higher for longer. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available below. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
12
Japan Inflation Overview JAPAN CPI Japan Headline and Core CPI for Sept both came in lower than expected. Japan Headline CPI: YoY – Actual 3.0% / Exp. 3.2% / Prev. 3.2% (green on chart) Japan Core CPI: YoY – Actual 4.2% / Exp. 4.3% / Prev. 4.3% (blue on chart) The chart below illustrates that Core CPI appears to be plateauing with Headline CPI decreasing from 4.3% to 3% since Jan 2023. Similar to the Eurozone chart you can we are long way from the moderate levels of inflation between -1.5 – 1.5% from 2015 – 2020 below. Japan’s economy contracted by 2.1 per cent during the third quarter of 2023, following an expansion in the previous two quarters. Analysts fear the country might slip into a recession. The contraction was sparked by a combination of sticky core inflation holding close to its 4.2 – 4.3% ceiling since May 2023, the slowing of exports, and low pay rises that appear to have led to weak domestic consumption. “Given the absence of a growth engine it wouldn’t surprise me if the Japanese economy contracted again in the current quarter. The risk of Japan falling into recession cannot be ruled out.” - Takeshi Minami – Chief Economist Norinchuckin Research Institute
ECONOMICS:JPCCPI
by PukaCharts
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 index has been showing a consistent upward trend for a while now, and it has reached our designated Mean Resistance level of 4515 in this week's price action. This price level indicates a strong indication of retesting our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 on July 27, 2023. However, it's important to note that the market may experience a temporary pullback at this level, causing it to fall back to Mean Support of 4487. This transient retracement is essential for gathering momentum for the next rally phase. If the market successfully retests the completed Inner Index Rally, the subsequent pullback will likely be significant and turbulent. This means traders and investors should be cautious and watchful during this phase, as it could considerably impact their trading and investment approach.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
3