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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 index exhibited continued strength by rising above our Completed Inner Index Rally 4713 with the violent retreat on Wednesday to this strategic price level. The main target is our central Key Res 4800 and Outer Index Rally 4807, completed on June 4th, 2022. However, some concerns about a market squeeze from the newly created Mean Res 4769 might cause a pullback to Mean Sup 4700. This level of support is considered a strong support level for the index and can allow traders and investors to make a suitable entry decision.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
2
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has shown significant price movements throughout this week's trading session by surpassing our previously achieved Inner Currency Rally level of 1.099 and its corresponding resistance at the same price point. The current price action suggests that the Eurodollar will likely continue to climb, with the target level set at Inner Currency Rally 1.109. However, it is essential to stay alert to the ever-changing dynamics of the Eurodollar market, as the price action may experience a drawdown.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 22, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout this week's trading session, Bitcoin has been trading within a Mean Sup 41200 and completed Outer Coin Rally 44500. This range has created a level of stability in the market and has allowed for some downturn in the short term: the intermediate down target is the robust Mean Sup 42300. This is a crucial level for traders to watch, representing a solid support level for Bitcoin. Overall, Bitcoin is projected to revisit the completed Outer Coin Rally 44500 and continue the upward trajectory as specified on the chart.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
HEADLINE/CORE PCE - Inflation dips down into to historical normsU.S. Headline PCE - Lower than Expected ✅ Actual: 2.64% Exp: 2.8% Prev: 3.0% US Core PCE - Lower than Expected ✅ Actual: 3.16% Exp: 3.4% Prev: 3.5% As highlighted on my recent Macro Monday post Core PCE is the Feds favorite metric for measuring inflation (as it excludes volatile price swings from the likes of energy and food and gives a good indication of the underlying inflation trend). PCE is also considered more comprehensive and a more consumer led report than CPI which focuses more on a lessor altered fixed basket of goods (compared month to month). CORE PCE Core PCE has come in this month lower than expected at 3.16% (expected 3.4%). This is great news for the fight against inflation. HEADLINE PCE Separately, Headline PCE has just dipped under the 3% level down to 2.64% which is getting very close to the Federal Reserves long term target of 2%. Historical Core PCE Norms On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. A sub 3% Core PCE next month would be ideal and demonstrate further easing of inflationary pressures. For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review this weeks Macro Monday released earlier this week. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIAC
by PukaCharts
LONG a Falling Interest Rate! - TLTNASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest Rates are at their highest levels in around 20 years and history would show that following these peaks in the 5.5%-7% range tends to be a sharp fall of interest rates usually due to a general moderate or severe economic downturn needing economic stimulus with low rates - Along with the peak thesis, in the current economic state of America, it has been generally discussed by Fed Presidents that rate slowdown / rate hike pauses are starting. The FedWatch tool from CMEGroup shows that traders predict the highest rates will not go any higher, and actually start being cut in Early Spring 2024. Due to this data, it is definitely important to realize the risk/reward of this trade on how the downside is minimal with the current economic conditions proving interest rates will likely not move higher, and definitely not more than a last 25bps hike for this rate cycle considering no unprecedented events occur. - Another staple to this bullish thesis is against the Federal Reserve. I strongly believe the Federal Reserve bluffs intentionally during their public conferences and talks. Recalling the inflationary period following COVID, the Fed repeatedly spoke out on this inflation being transitory while CPI rocketed to record highs in decades. I believe they like to not inform the public to the 100% truth and locked room talks. The Fed has came out and said they are quite against publicizing a rate pause officially / begin cutting rates and I believe this is a bluff. As the Fed claims to wait for data, I believe that data is showing, and will continue to show stronger economic struggle from the effects on high-interest rates. As unemployment just ticked up and probably will continue, rates will start to drop fast as soon as the Fed starts. Treasury Yields would likely dump prior to all of this as the anticipation begins to flow into the markets. Lastly, I think the Fed tends to deceive the public to try and not heavily move the markets in a short time. - Overall the data should start to pour in on economic slow down as student loan repayments resume, credit delinquencies continue to rise, housing market cools, unemployment ticking up, and more can feed to a sharp drop in CPI as aggregate US demand settles. The Fed will act on this slowdown and will need to sharply cut interest rates, especially if they wait too long. - Technicals on NASDAQ:TLT also look strong with a major demand zone, a dailydouble bottom and a diagonal trendline supports the price level. TTM_Squeeze also backs up a possible end to the downside. Below 89 area could be a solid Exit area for risk-management. Any Cut in Rates, or anticipation in rate cuts can send TLT flying with bond yields tumbling. Bonus: NASDAQ:TLT also provides a safe hedge to a market collapse or recession. Because market recessions would spark a cut in rates to help fuel a recovery, while stocks may tumble, this ETF would rally on a decline of interest rates to help stimulate a falling economy. Thesis : long Commons or 2025 dated Credit Spreads
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ZachSap
6
EURUSD Pair Projections for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024Financial Analysis: EURUSD Pair Projections for Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024 Disclaimer : This analysis is based on the information available as of the provided date and is subject to change. It should not be considered as financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making investment decisions. Ifo Report and Current Business Climate The recent Ifo report reflects a clouded sentiment in the German business landscape, with companies expressing dissatisfaction with their current business situations and heightened skepticism regarding the first half of 2024. Notably: Manufacturing The Business Climate Index in manufacturing witnessed a noticeable decline, with companies perceiving their current business situation as significantly worse. Expectations in the manufacturing sector grew more pessimistic, particularly affecting energy-intensive industries. Service Sector The service sector experienced a slight improvement in the business climate, driven by increased satisfaction with current business situations. Service providers displayed reduced skepticism about the outlook for the next six months, although expectations in restaurants and catering saw a nosedive. Trade The trade sector suffered a setback, as companies assessed their current situations as notably worse. Holiday trade for retailers, in particular, disappointed. Construction The Business Climate Index in construction hit its lowest level since September 2005, with companies reporting a worsened current situation. Approximately half of the companies anticipate further deterioration in the months ahead. Projections for EURUSD in Q1, Q2, and Q3 The Ifo report's insights into the German business sentiment set the stage for assessing the FX:EURUSD pair's projections: Q1: Sluggish Momentum The current scenario suggests a sluggish start for EURUSD in Q1. The clouded business sentiment in Germany may contribute to a sideways market, marked by cautious trading. Q2: Anticipating Improvement As Q2 unfolds, there is an expectation of an improvement in the financial situation in Europe. Despite the challenging Q1, signs of stabilization and potential positive developments could influence a more favorable outlook for the EURUSD pair. Q3: Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern An analysis of the larger fractal, specifically the Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern forming in the EURUSD pair, points towards robust bullish momentum. This projection aligns with a potential turnaround by the end of Q2 and the beginning of Q3, indicating a shift towards a more positive market sentiment. Conclusion In conclusion, the EURUSD pair is likely to face challenges in the early part of 2024, reflecting the clouded sentiment in the German business landscape. However, signs of improvement are anticipated in Q2, with the formation of an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern suggesting a strong bullish momentum in the currency pair by the end of Q2 and the beginning of Q3. Traders and investors should closely monitor economic indicators, global events, and the evolving business climate for timely decision-making in the dynamic forex market.
Long
by wikitrades
Unraveling the NYSE Enigma: The Matrix of US EconomyNavigating the Matrix: The US Economy's Fractal Future Unveiled In the intricate dance between mathematical laws, global events, and the echoes of a 15-year financial cycle , the US economy stands at a crossroads. As financial analysts, we often find ourselves immersed in technical tools, resistance zones, and support levels, but perhaps it's time to step back and perceive the larger canvas. Michael Burry's ominous warning about a potential stock market crash has shuffled the cards, prompting us to question not just if, but when. The unfolding narrative forces us to reconsider the true value of a safe-haven asset—Digital Gold, aka Bitcoin. Recent news, including the surge in Bitcoin's value and its best day since August 2023 , as reported by Reuters, signals a seismic shift in the global financial landscape, with giants like BlackRock entering the scene. The emergence of a new world order, led by BRICS , alongside the strengthening of the Euro and the weakening of the USD, mirrors a plot that seems torn from Orwell's playbook. The question has transcended the realm of ETFs; it now echoes in the chambers of the world's financial future. As we step into this unknown terrain, a confluence of factors shapes the economic narrative. Inflation, like a rising tide, threatens to engulf us. Interest rates, akin to a tempest, soar to new heights. The capital congestion in consumer hands, unaccounted for and potent, adds complexity. Blue-chip stocks skillfully sidestep taxes, while government structures weaken. Amidst this symphony of financial discord, the political instability of influential nations like Russia and Israel looms large, their ripples creating a butterfly effect on the American economy. The matrix of economic forces is shifting, and the rules of engagement are evolving. In this amalgamation of financial philosophy and stark reality, we must decipher the patterns, anticipate the shocks, and navigate the unknown. The road ahead is uncertain, but one thing is clear—the US economy is on the brink of a profound transformation, and it's time to read between the fractals.
Long
by wikitrades
A few trends in China's economyToday, we would like to briefly discuss a few underlying trends in China's economy, touching on the subject of unemployment, demographics, and deflation. Youth unemployment While the unemployment situation has improved in 2023, youth unemployment (for those aged between 16 and 24) has been a longtime issue in China. Indeed, it has steadily risen since 2018 (back then, it stood at around 10%), with government programs promoting a higher level of education contributing to the problem. As a matter of fact, this year, in June, the youth unemployment rate hit a staggering 21.3%, prompting the Chinese government to stop reporting the number. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of China’s unemployment rate. Demographics and fertility Another big issue in China is the country’s aging population and declining fertility among women. The median age has risen from 28.9 years in 2000 to 34.1 years in 2010 and 37.4 years in 2020. On the other hand, the average number of births per woman stood at 1.6 in 2000; in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017, the average rose to 1.8. But since 2018, the rate has been rapidly collapsing. In 2021, the number stood at 1.2, representing approximately 33% decline since 2018. China’s deflation As much of the Western world grapples with inflation, China has the opposite problem. For November 2023, the country recorded -0.5% deflation compared to the previous year. With that said, there were three periods when China experienced deflation (annually) since the 1990s. The first period occurred between 1998 and 1999, when the annual inflation rate was -0.8% and -1.4%. The second instance took place in 2002, and the third in 2007. For the eleven months of 2023, the inflation rate averages about 0.3%, the lowest figure since 2009. Housing prices Amid the ongoing property crisis in China, house prices have been sliding down this year. Actually, there were only two prints when the year-over-year change was not negative, particularly in June 2023 (coming in at 0.1%) and July 2023 (coming in at 0%). Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:HSI
by Tradersweekly
2
Core and headline CPI - Update from 12 Dec 2023 The Core and Headline CPI Chart This CPI chart illustrates the following: - You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide a more general view of underlying inflation (based on a fixed basket of goods) - It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserves target of 2% which is also outlined on the chart (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first. - You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%. Im sharing this chart now to lock it in as it will feature in tomorrows Macro Monday See you there PUKA
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the S&P 500 index exhibited remarkable strength, with consistent price momentum throughout. The index managed to surpass our Key Resistance level of 4639 and Inner Index Rally level of 4647, finally resting at the completion of Inner Index Rally level of 4713. Looking ahead, the following two targets for an upward trend are the completed Outer Index Rally level of 4807 and the Key Resistance of 4800. Both price levels were created on June 4th, 2022. However, there are some concerns about a market squeeze from the current completed Inner Index Rally 4713 that might cause a transient pullback. In such a scenario, the index could move downward and reset itself to the Mean Support level of 4644. This level is considered a strong support level for the index and can provide an opportunity for traders and investors to make a suitable entry decision.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar currency pair has shown a strong rebound in the recent trading session, climbing to reach our previously identified Inner Currency Rally level of 1.099. However, this was followed by a sharp reversal, with the price dropping rapidly. The current price action indicates that the Eurodollar is likely to continue on a downward trend, with the designated target levels being Mean Sup 1.075 and Inner Currency Dip of 1.068. Overall, it's crucial to stay vigilant and informed about the ever-changing dynamics of the Eurodollar market to make the most of the opportunities it presents.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 15, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout this week's trading session, Bitcoin has been trading within a specific range, defined by two fundamental values: the Completed Outer Coin Rally 44500 and Mean Res 44100. This range has created a level of stability in the market and has allowed for some predictability in the short term. The market is on an upward trend that is expected to continue. Bitcoin is projected to reach the newly established intermediary Mean Res 43100 and surpass it in the coming days. In a downturn, the intermediate target is the robust Mean Sup 41200. This is a crucial level for traders to watch, representing a solid support level for Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
The Digital Economy Ushers in A Long Term Bull Market CycleI received my CMT charter long ago, when chartered market technician candidates could write a thesis that had potential to change the body of knowledge of Technical Analysis. It did and it continues to serve me and my students well. It was called "Cycle Evolution Theory" and my specialty is in the long-term cycles of emerging displacement technologies that change society, the economy and the stock market. So this is an especially exciting time in the history of the stock market to be teaching trading and investing, during a major shift I have been preparing my students for over the last few years. The stock market is rallying to new highs as a NEW Bull Market is underway. There will be minor retracements from time to time, but the long-term uptrend has begun. The Bull Market Cycles of the past have lasted about 13 years. Cycle experts believe this Bull Market will last longer because there are over 20 new technologies moving into the Market Acceptance Phase all around the same time. It’s not just Artificial Intelligence. Several new technologies are changing the economy of the US to a DIGITAL Economy, the first in the history of all the various economic types. A Digital Economy derives its primary growth and expansion not from manufacturing, not from consumer buying of products and services, but from the STOCK MARKET. In this new economy, the middle class may get left behind if they don’t learn how to use trading and investments to maintain and build wealth. See the attached NASDAQ:IXIC NASDAQ Composite Chart that shows the long-term bull market cycles of this index using the DPO indicator on a monthly scale. The Cycles show: the topping and Peak of the 2009–2020 Bull Market. a second extreme Peak in 2021 after the speculative run up out of the shortest bear market in history due to the Covid-19 Pandemic. the intermediate term correction in 2022. and now a new Trough is completed for the beginning of the next Bull Market. The Bull Market of the late 1980s to the year 2000 was extremely steep for the NASDAQ, as it had the 6 new technology industry stocks of that time as components. The Bull Market of 2003–2008 was not a new technology market period but a Real Estate Market boom, so the NASDAQ had minimal gains. The Bull Market of 2009–2020 was created by the new technology of the Cloud, Platform as a Service (PaaS), Software as a Service (SaaS), the Internet of Everything (IoE), sensors, semiconductors, electronics, and more. This next Bull Market has 20+ new technologies. When there are new technologies coming to market, there are the best opportunities for trading and investing in the stock market. PLUS, there is always a silver lining to a global pandemic cycle, and that is the empirical historical fact that after every major pandemic, there is a growth era of new technologies, new social reforms, and new approaches to problems that lead to widespread economic prosperity. A pandemic is very similar to a World War in its impact on social norms, health, government, the distribution of wealth, education, and individual identity. Most of the 140 industries in the US financial markets will be impacted by a huge number of displacement technologies. These are far more extensive and disruptive than in the new technology era of the 1980s–1990s. Learning about these new technologies will help you trade or invest in stocks with knowledge and confidence in the next long-term Bull Market. How many of the 20+ new technologies coming to market can YOU name? The stocks of companies who are working on or using these new technologies and that are poised for dominance in the next bull market cycle will have Dark Pool accumulation patterns concentrated at the trough of the next upward cycle. So I've referenced some of the posts where I've featured these patterns below. Trade Wisely,
NASDAQ:IXIC
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
2
US Financial Markets facing CPI after US Down-Graded to AA+- Emerging Markets are in a paranoid state due to Major US Financial Markets nearing scheduled date of CPI numbers releasing day. Consensus forecasts are anticipating Inflation to steadily go up for the rest of 2023 and entering '24 10'th of August/23 will be a very important day for The Global Financial Markets. Casualties might follow soon due to the turbulence of this frenzy economic environment created. Is US about to enter a recession ? Or do you believe Powell's joke of 'Soft Landing' How about another joke Powell ... Note that US technically had entered recession by two negative consecutive Quarters, however, it got 'saved' by promising growing employment numbers. Seems like Feds are masters at postponing cascading tragedies, great tricksters filled with riddles. With Euro-Zone being officially in Recession for a while now, it's just a matter of time for US fate to be sealed. Why learn economics !? Broader and clearer pictures to strategize your investing/positioning and smaller time frames trading decisions, be it swings, intradays or scalps. Seems like it is enough today for a good poker player and a gambler to trade the markets. How many times can you get lucky in repetitive motion and consider making in to trading for a living ?! Not long . Open your horizons and explore financial literacy to be more in touch with Facade of Financial Markets.
TVC:SPX
by Mr_J__fx
BTC 4 Year Cycle with TA giving 40k @ Xmas 2023 - 220k Sep 2024Before I start a couple of Historical Teasers: BTC is Finite in Volume - 21,000,000. BTC has transitioned from a little known FAD, scam, criminal entity with no value to one of a globally recognised and trusted P2P currency with with huge potential for storage of value (Digital Gold). Everything is going Digital and that includes all currencies. This chart speaks volumes from a technical analysis point of view with the following indicators being highlighted: 1 - "The Trend is your Friend" - Light Blue ATH & ATL Trend Lines. 2 - Four Year Cycle between Peaks. Light Grey Sine Wave. 3 - Trend Crossing Channels (Trends). Lime Green Lines with angle of ascent in Blue. The ATH & ATL Trend Lines are important as to break through one indicates serious change. Whilst this may seem obvious it is important to note that the longer a trend line the greater its strength. For BTC to go below the ATL Trend Line would require a very serious (Global?) event to occur. On a long term basis, successful quoted instruments will often traverse from the ATL Trend Line to the ATH Trend Line in rapid steps followed by a lengthy period of horizontal steps until it reaches the next ATL Trend Line point. (There are obviously fluctuations during this period). BTC IMO is starting it's 3rd Cycle (Transition) from the ATL Trend Line to the ATH Trend Line. If correct we will see 40K by Christmas this year (23) and 220k by 9th September 2024. And if the above TA isn't enough just look at where we are outside of TA? We're talking Inflation, Wars, Spot ETFs and so on. 40k by Xmas 220k by Sep 2024 - Love to All and Peace on Earth.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Erasmus
7
Macro Monday 22 - ISM Services Vs PMI US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (ISM Services) Next Release: 5th December 2023 (released on third business day of each month) The U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (“ISM Services”) encompasses a wide range of services across various industries. The index is designed to measure the economic activity and health of the services sector in the United States some of which are professional services (accounting, legal, etc.), healthcare (hospitals, clinics & other practitioners), accommodation, leisure and food services. Similar to the ISM Manufacturing Index (aka as the Purchasers Managers Index) which surveys producers and manufacturers which we covered in Macro Monday 13, the ISM Services index is also based on surveys conducted on participants in the relevant services sectors noted above. Also similar to the ISM Manufacturing index, the ISM Services is reported as a diffusion index, where values above 50 indicate expansion or growth in the sector, while values below 50 suggest contraction. This makes both the ISM Manufacturing Index and ISM Services Index easy to compile onto a chart for comparison purposes. The ISM Services Vs ISM Manufacturing Chart The chart demonstrates the following: ▫️ At present ISM Services has been more resilient and is in expansionary territory at 51.8 (above 50) whilst ISM Manufacturing is in contractionary territory below the 50 level at 46.7. ▫️ Both the ISM Services Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index have been in a downward trajectory since 2021. - You can clearly see that since March 2021 the Manufacturing Index has declined from 64.5 down to 46.7 today (Red Line). - Thereafter from November 2021 the ISM Services Index declined from 67.5 down to 51.8 today (Blue Line). ▫️ As you can see on the chart a steep manufacturing decline can often provide advance an warning of a subsequent services decline (grey areas on chart). It’s important to acknowledge that the Manufacturing Index can lead the ISM Services Index. It is important because we discovered in Macro Monday 13 that the Manufacturing Index (AKA Purchaser Managers Index) reading below 42 can provide an advance/confirmation warning of recession, thus more weight could be assigned to the Manufacturing Index than Services Index in predicting a recession (as it appears to lead services direction). For this reason we will review the ISM Manufacturing Index (PMI) indications below. The ISM Manufacturing Chart The main findings of the ISM Manufacturing Index (AKA Purchaser Managers Index) From a Recession Perspective ▫️ 11 of the 12 recessions on the chart coincided with a PMI of less than 42. ▫️ 1 recession occurred that did not breach below the 42 level (No. 9 on the chart) From a PMI Perspective ▫️ 12 of the 13 times that the PMI moved below the 42 level, this coincided with a recession. ▫️ 1 time we have had a sub 42 PMI reading without a recession (Between 11 & 12 on the chart). At present we are at a level of 46.7 so we do not currently have a trigger event for a recession but we know exactly what to look for. Based on both historical perspectives, there is an c.92% probability of a recession should a sub 42 PMI level be established, or vice versa, in the event of a recession confirmation there is a c. 92% probability it would coincide with the sub 42 PMI level. Timing ISM Manufacturing Bottoms o 10 out of 12 PMI Bottoms occurred in Q1 and the remaining two bottoms were in Q2. 83% of the time the PMI bottoms occur in Q1 which is good to know and watch for with Q1 2024 approaching swiftly. o The average PMI Bottom to bottom timeframe over the past 6 cycles is 58 months (Min 37 – Max 86). We are presently at month 44 and month 58 is Jan 2025 (Q1) The ISM New Orders Index (30% of the PMI) Similar to the ISM New Orders Index Chart (covered in Macro Monday 6) which makes up 30% of the Purchaser Managers Index or Manufacturers Index (PMI), we have not reached below the 42 level on this chart either which has provided a 100% confirmation of recession when we have had a definitive move below the 42 level historically. At present we are at 45.5 on this chart and we seem to have a downward trajectory at present unless something changes upon the next data release. In summary, we now know now that the Manufacturers Index (PMI) often leads the Services Index, and we need to pay close attention to the 42 level on both the New orders Index (Makes up 30% of PMI) and the Manufacturing Index (PMI) as a breach below this level on these charts increases the probability of a recession upwards of 92%. We are also now aware that there is a high incidence of the PMI bottoming in Q1 (83% of the time) and occasionally in Q2. These are quarters we can be on high alert for a sub 42 level. The ISM Services PMI is released on the third business day of each month at 10:00 a.m. (EST) or 15:00 GMT. The next release will be on the Tuesday the 5th December 2023. Most of the ISM data releases commence within the first 5 working days of the month. As always folks, I will watch the numbers and keep you informed. All of the above charts are updated on TradingView as data is released. PUKA
U
by PukaCharts
$CNINTR - Interest Rates Cut- The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. The cuts follow reductions in other interest rates last week. The LPR sets the interest that commercial banks charge their best clients, and serves as the benchmark for household and corporate lending. The one-year rate affects most new and outstanding loans, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of longer term loans, such as mortgages. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy.
ECONOMICS:CNINTR
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the course of this week's trading session, the index remained relatively stable using our strong Mean Sup 4546 as a strategic price platform, notwithstanding moderate gains leading toward the Key Resistance of 4639 and Inner Index Rally of 4647. Moreover, the Inner Index Rally 4647 indicates a strong bullish trend for traders and investors to ponder. Once the market reaches the target price, the resulting squeeze could be substantial and chaotic. As a result, traders and investors should be cautious and attentive during this price action period.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Last week's completion of our Inner Currency Rally of 1.099 continued to drop to strategic Mean Sup 1.084 and is on its way to a significant Mean Sup 1.067 and Inner Currency Dip 1.068 outcome. The current price action suggests a rebound from the letter prices to the designated target Mean Res 1.080. Overall, it is essential to closely monitor the Eurodollar market trend and take appropriate measures within critical price action of the support/resistance and dip result.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 8, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin has completed our three consecutive Outer Coin Rallies 39200, 41200, and 43700 in this week's trading. On the downside, the intermediate down target is Mean Sup 43100. The subsequent squeeze will likely be Mean Sup 41500. The upside price movement is expected to be aggressive and intense, as the market sentiment is tilted towards bullishness. The market participants will likely be actively buying, leading to a surge in demand for the asset pushing the price higher. However, it is essential to note that the market is volatile and subject to sudden changes, so investors should remain cautious and closely monitor the support and rally outcome price targets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 1, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz index in this week's trading session retested our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 of July 27, 2023, and is moving higher, targeting the Key Res 4630 and Inner Index Rally 4647, respectively. Once the market successfully achieves this target price, the follow-up squeeze will likely be significant and turbulent. Traders and investors should, therefore, be prudent and vigilant during this price action phase.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter