$EUIRYY - Europe CPI below 2% Target (May/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 1.9%
May/2025
source: EUROSTAT
- Eurozone CPI eased to 1.9% year-on-year in May 2025,
down from 2.2% in April and below market expectations of 2.0%.
This marks the first time inflation has fallen below the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target since September 2024, reinforcing expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut later this week and raising the possibility of additional cuts.
A key driver of the deceleration was a sharp slowdown in services inflation, which dropped to 3.2% from 4.0% in April, its lowest level since March 2022.
Energy prices continued to decline, falling by 3.6% year-on-year, while inflation for non-energy industrial goods held steady at 0.6%.
In contrast, prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco accelerated, rising 3.3% compared with 3.0% the previous month.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, slipped to 2.3%, the lowest reading since January 2022. source: EUROSTAT
Economy
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Core PCE (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
April/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
-The core PCE price index in the US, which excludes volatile and energy prices and is Federal Reserve's chosen gauge of underlying inflation in the US economy,
went up 0.1% from the previous month in April of 2025.
The result was in line with market expectations.
From the previous year, the index rose by 2.5% to slow from the 2.7% jump from March, the softest increase since March of 2021.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 30, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has undergone considerable price fluctuations during the trading sessions of this week, successfully reaching a critical target at the Mean Support level of 5800. Presently, the index is exhibiting an upward trend with a focus on the retest of the Inner Index Dip at 5955 and Key Resistance at 5965. Furthermore, additional significant levels have been identified, including the Next#1 Outer Index Rally at 6073, Key Resistance at 6150, and the Next#2 Outer Index Rally at 6235. Conversely, there is a potential for the index prices to downfall aiming to retest Mean Support 5800 and to complete the Outer Index Dip, noted at 5730.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 30, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has experienced significant volatility during this week's trading session. It reached a significant Mean Resistance level at 1.142 while also encountering Mean Support at a target of 1.122. Recent analyses suggest that the Euro is likely to revisit the critical target of 1.142, which includes Key Resistance at 1.151 and the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.157. However, there is a potential for a downward correction from the current level, which could lead to prices retesting the Mean Support of 1.122. There is also a possibility for further declines, reaching the Outer Currency Dip at 1.108.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 30, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has undergone a significant decline during the current week's trading session and is presently situated at the Mean Support level of $103,000. This downward trajectory has the potential to establish a temporary pause, which may facilitate the emergence of upward momentum from this level, and it could pose a challenge to the Key Resistance level at 109500. A successful breach of this resistance may lead to the completion of the Inner Coin Rally target at $114500. However, it is crucial to acknowledge the possibility of renewed downward momentum from the current level, as this could result in a decline toward the Mean Support of 99000.
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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar has demonstrated significant strength during this week's trading session, attaining a notable Inner Currency Rally at 1.129 and encountering Mean Resistance at 1.137. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro will likely progress towards the forthcoming target levels, specifically the Mean Resistance at 1.142 and the Key Resistance at 1.151. A retest of the completed Outer Currency Rally at 1.157 may facilitate this advancement. However, a potential downward pullback could emerge from the current price range, particularly in proximity to the Mean Resistance level of 1.137, with a possibility of declining to the Mean Support at 1.127.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the course of this week's trading session, Bitcoin demonstrated significant upward movement, surpassing both Mean Resistance at 105000 and Key Resistance at 106100. This progression also facilitated the surpassing completed Inner Coin Rally at 108,000, and the highly anticipated Outer Coin Rally marked at 110000. As a result, the cryptocurrency experienced a substantial decline, currently aiming toward Mean Support at 105600, with a potential further decline toward an additional Mean Support target at 101500.
It is essential to acknowledge the possibility of an upward momentum emerging from the current level, which may enable a challenge to Key Resistance at 111700. Success in this regard could result in reaching the Inner Coin Rally at $114500 and, subsequently, the Outer Coin Rally at 122000.
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (April/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 3.6%
April/2025
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- Japan's annual inflation rate stood at 3.6% in April 2025,
unchanged from March while remaining at its lowest print since December.
Food prices rose the least in four months (6.5% vs 7.4% in March) even as rice costs jumped 94.8% y-o-y, hitting a new record for the 7th straight month due to poor harvests and rising demand from record tourist numbers.
Price growth also eased for clothing (2.7% vs 3.0%) and household items (4.1% vs 4.5%).
Cost of education fell much steeper (-5.6% vs -1.2%).
In contrast, inflation was stable for transport (at 2.7%) while accelerating for housing (1.0% vs 0.8%), healthcare (2.2% vs 2.0%), recreation (2.7% vs 2.0%), communications (1.1% vs 1.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.3% vs 1.1%).
Prices of electricity (13.5% vs 8.7% ) and gas (4.4% vs 2.4%) rose the most in three months, as the impact of government subsidies faded.
Core inflation climbed to an over 2-year high of 3.5% from 3.2% in March.
Monthly, the CPI rose 0.1%, easing from a 0.3% gain in March.
$GBIRYY - U.K Inflation Rate Accelerates (April/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
April/2025
source: Office for National Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the UK jumped to 3.5% in April, the highest since January 2024, from 2.6% in March and above forecasts of 3.3%.
The main upward pressure came from higher electricity and gas prices after the Ofgem price cap increase, while new Vehicle Excise Duty on electric cars lifted transport costs, and food inflation also picked up.
Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated to 3.8%, the highest in a year.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index showed a steady upward trend during this week's trading session, successfully reaching a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5955. However, it's important to note the significant downward trend due to letter completion, which could lead to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 5828. Additionally, there is a possibility of further drops to the Mean Support level of 5661. On the other hand, the index may continue to rise from its current level, potentially advancing toward the Inner Currency Rally target set at 6073.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, Bitcoin has remained tightly bound within our Mean Resistance level of 104000 and is positioned to retest the lower target identified as Mean Support at 99300. There exists a possibility of a further decline toward an additional Mean Support target at 94000. Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognize the potential for upward momentum from the current level, which may lead to a challenge of the Key Resistance at 106100. This could culminate in a retest of the previously established Inner Coin Rally at $108,000.
$JPGDBQQ -Japan's GDP Shrinks More than Expected (Q1/2025)$JPGDBQQ
Q1/2025
source: Cabinet Office, Japan
- Japan's GDP shrank 0.2% qoq in Q1 of 2025, compared with forecasts of a 0.1% fall and after a 0.6% growth in Q4, flash data showed.
It was the first GDP contraction in a year, amid worries over the impact of US trade policy under President Donald Trump.
On an annualized basis, the economy contracted 0.7%, worse than consensus of a 0.2% drop and a reversal from an upwardly revised 2.4% gain in Q4.
$GBGDPQQ -UK GDP Growth Above Expectations (Q1/2025)ECONOMICS:GBGDPQQ
Q1/2025
source: Office for National Statistics
- The British economy expanded 0.7% on quarter in Q1 2025, compared to 0.1% in Q4 and forecasts of 0.6%, preliminary figures showed. It is the strongest growth rate in 3 quarters, with the largest contribution coming from the services sector, gross fixed capital formation and net trade. Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 1.3%.
Magnificent Seven: Still Magnificent? Or Diverging for Good?The Nasdaq 100 has bounced, but under the surface, the “Magnificent Seven” are no longer marching in sync.
And this divergence matters, especially if you’re trading QQQ or using it as a momentum proxy.
⚔️ Leadership Rotation in Real Time
- Nvidia (NVDA): Still a beast. Making fresh highs, clear institutional momentum.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Quiet strength — not flashy, but technically clean.
- Meta, Amazon: Holding up, consolidating after major runs.
- Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA): Weak links. AAPL can't find a bid. TSLA is stuck below major resistance.
Trading QQQ directly?
Consider weighting your thesis by what’s working under the hood.
- QQQ reclaimed the 200-day MA with the May 12's gap echoing the broader S&P move.
- Look for a retest of the resistance and the previous high of 540
- Play breakouts with confirmation, or mean-reverting pullbacks.
🧠 Final Take
The Magnificent Seven are splitting into two camps: those still driving the rally, and those dragging it.
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUS10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFA
-After sweeping the previous swing high we retraced back to 50% Fib(Equilibrium)
-Expecting this Week's candle wick to sweep Sellside Liquidity-1 and bounce
-If we bounce from here, iFVG-W (red rectangle) will be our resistance zone
-Rejection from that level can send it back to sellside and our next target will be BISI-W(green rectangle)
If any of these Support/Resistance levels are invalidated i will update the idea next week.
**Major economic events can cause drastic moves and invalidate these levels**
$USIRYY - U.S Inflation Rate Unexpectedly Slows (April/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
April/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US eased to 2.3% in April, the lowest since February 2021, from 2.4% in March and below forecasts of 2.4%.
Prices of gasoline fell at a faster pace and inflation also slowed for food and transportation.
Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in March but below forecasts of 0.3%.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate steadied at 2.8% as expected, holding at 2021-lows.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the initial days of this week’s trading session, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a steady to low price movement pattern, successfully achieving a significant target at the Mean Support level of 5601, as indicated in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. Subsequently, the Index experienced a robust rebound, effectively retesting the Mean Resistance level of 5692. This upward trajectory achievement established a reversal pattern for the downward acceleration to repeat the Mean Support level 5601 retest. However, it is critical to recognize the considerable risk of a sharp upward movement from the current price action, which may lead to an ascent toward the next Mean Support level of 5778. Furthermore, there exists the potential for additional escalation, potentially reaching the Outer Index Rally level of 5915 and beyond.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar exhibited signs of weakness following a rebound at the Mean Resistance level of 1.137. With decisive, vigorous bearish price activity, the currency pair decisively breached the critical Mean Support level of 1.128. Current market indicators suggest that the Euro will likely close on a Mean Support level of 1.119, moving further towards an Outer Currency Dip at 1.111. However, it is essential to acknowledge that upward dead-cat rebounds may re-emerge at the present price range level.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin leapfrogged our Interim Coin Rally 100000 via Key Res 97500 in this week's trading session and is clearly aiming to retest the next target of completed Inner Coin Rally 108000. Nevertheless, current price movements indicate a potential retracement from Mean Resistance 104000 toward the Mean Support level at 99300, with a further possible decline likely toward an additional Mean Support target at 94000. However, it is imperative to recognize the potential for upward momentum from the current level, as this could facilitate a trajectory toward the Key Res 106100 and the next Interim Coin Rally at $108,000 and beyond.
$GBINTR -BoE Cuts Rates as Expected (May/2025)ECONOMICS:GBINTR
May/2025
source: Bank of England
- The Bank of England cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%,
matching expectations but revealing a split 5–4 vote.
Two policymakers favored a deeper 50 bps cut, while two others wanted to hold at 4.5%.
It was the fourth cut since August 2024, amid concerns over slowing growth linked to Trump-era tariffs.
$USINTR -Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged (May/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
May/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve kept the funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% range for a third consecutive meeting as officials adopt a wait-and-see approach amid concerns about the effects of President Trump’s tariffs.
Policymakers noted that uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further and that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.