Get started

Economy

XAU/USD -Facing Local Resistance- Gold is facing a local resistance trendline which previously was acting as Support trendline within the pattern. Last 3D candlestick print managed to put a higher high in terms of market structure (BoS). Entry from here is quite risky, however, spot SL is just about 1% from current price. Last 3D Candlesticks looks like a Bullish Hammer being printed, yet weak in terms of price action having experienced rejection from resistance trendline . Wave 5 anticipation for Gold, headed to NATH, but first, price needs to pick it self back up and penetrate through the broken trendline in order to continue higher. Quite some critical moves ahead for Gold's Direction TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on nay trading activity based solely on this Idea.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mr_J__fx
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 18, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week, the Spooz index finalized its down move by completing the Inner Index Dip 0f 4340. However, a strong rebound is possible with Mean Res 4460 as a primary target. On the downside, price action might churn about the completed Inner Index Dip 4340 and Mean Sup 4330 before taking off to the upside. Notwithstanding, if all fails, the market will take us to the Next designated target of Inner Index Dip 4212.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Short Dollar Index at Strong Resistance The US dollar index, technical analysis compared against the seven other major FX currencies(AUD, CAD, JPY, CHF, GBP, EUR, and NZD), is at a strong resistance level, with RSI momentum levels close to being overbought. Fundamentally and based on the analysis of various economic indicators, the US dollar appears to be leaning towards an inflationary bias, but some conflicting signals suggest potential deflationary pressures. Key points include: Leading Indicators: PMI and Services PMI indicate a growing economy, potentially leading to inflation. However, momentum is slowing down, which could temper the inflationary outlook. Money Indicators: M2 is historically low and bouncing higher, coupled with the decreasing interest rates (IRs) and real interest rates (Real IRs) velocity, indicating a possible shift towards looser monetary policy and an inflationary bias. Inflation Measures: While CPI inflation is now close to average levels, the Core CPI is heading toward normality and decreasing, suggesting some downward pressure on inflation. PPI (Producers Inflation) has shown signs of bouncing higher, indicating potential inflationary tendencies. Employment: Employment trends point to medium to low inflation expectations, as employment change is within YoY% average levels. Considering these factors, the ultimate currency bias leans slightly towards an inflationary outlook for the US dollar. However, the mixed nature of the signals suggests a need for continued monitoring of economic indicators and policies to accurately assess the currency's direction.
Short
by Kels
📈MY TAKE ON THE FED, INFLATION AND CREDIT📊 TLDR: I think the price increase we are seeing is not inflation, the economy is going from bad to worse and the FED's actions don't make any sense. At the peak of the great inflation of the 70s in USA while both long and short term interest rates were going up together with inflation, so was the aggregate credit. In fact loans to businesses were growing faster than inflation. Whereas now, while the short term rates are going up the aggregate credit is going down. Businesses aren’t borrowing and the banks aren’t lending. And as it was established by Milton Friedman, inflation is exclusively a MONETARY phenomenon. Therefore price increase followed by unchanged or decreased aggregate credit in not inflation. Which is exactly what we are seeing right now. It might be attributed to the ongoing effects of the Covid era supply shock which created long lasting bottlenecks, the war in Ukraine or some other fundamental systemic economic problem but it’s not conventional inflation which means that raising interest rates will do nothing but further damage the already weak economy (which is reflected in the unprecedented drop in demand for credit) So, the further rate hikes that were hinted yesterday by the FED don’t make any sense and we should be expecting a fast race to the zero with more QE when the economic sh*t hits the political fan. But, let’s wait and see.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
4
MACRO MONDAY 7 - CHINA DEFLATIONMacro Monday (7) - Advance Release China Inflation Rate – $CNIRRY China entered into deflationary territory in July 2023 and this is being shared by many with an extremely negative outlook for markets. I believe this chart outlines a very different perspective that leans more neutral than cautionary whilst also providing a more usable framework in the event of a recession scenario playing out. 🔴The last 3 global recessions commenced during China's peak inflationary periods, not during deflationary periods. This is the first clear indication from the chart (red circles). 🔵The last 3 periods of deflation in China signaled the forming of a market bottom in 2000 (over 14 months), thee market bottom in 2008 and resulted in positive S&P500 price action in 2020 (blue areas). Two out of three times China Deflation has been immediately positive for markets. ⚠️The most contentious period of deflation can be assigned to the 2000 Dot Com crash. The commencement of this 14 month period of deflation from October 2001 did not immediately mark the bottom. Instead the S&P500 made a further c.35% decline to gradually form its bottom over those 14 months ending in December 2002. If this was to repeat we could be looking at Sept 2024 as a possible market bottom and a 35% decline would be $2.9k for the S&P....👀 This scenario is worthy of consideration especially factoring in the comparisons of the 2023 AI boom to the 2000 internet boom. As we enter a new technological epoch with the likes of Augmented Reality, Cryptocurrencies and AI, are we getting ahead of ourselves again? Do these technologies need a little more time to mature much like the internet? Are we overextended like we were in 2000? Its hard to answer no to any of these questions but against the backdrop of record levels of QE and Fiscal Deficit we have to keep an open mind as we froth in record levels of liquidity. What is useful about this chart is that if a 2000 Dot Com crash scenario was to play out from hereon, we could use China’s move back into inflationary territory (above 0% line) as a possible confirmation of a market bottom/reversal as was the case in Dec 2002. What day is it? 🤣🤣🤣 I released this early brief Macro Monday as I seen this topic repeatedly in my feed today and wanted to share the perspective as soon as possible. There is a strong possibility of a 2nd alternative Macro Monday Chart on Monday 14th. Hope to see you there! As always I hope the chart offers perspective and utility PUKA
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by PukaCharts
$CNIRYY - Deflationary CPI- While ECONOMICS:USIRYY numbers remain inflationary, having the latest increase to 3.2% on August 10th, on the other side of the World from the second Global Superpower, ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came Deflationary at negative 0.3% on 9'th of August, just a day prior to numbers of ECONOMICS:USIRYY . Note that The Head of Federal Reserve, our pal Jerome Powell, stated that Feds do not see Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY coming down to their norm target of 2% CPI by 2025. Jerome still believes on a 'Soft Landing'.. How about another Joke, Powell !?
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
U.S. Economy Less Interest Rate SensitiveDespite the fastest rise in interest rates since 1981, and an inverted yield curve where short-term rates are much higher than long-term bond yields, the United States has not (at least yet) experienced the recession forecast by the vast majority of market pundits and economists. Why not? The relatively few contrarians that did not forecast a recession, including myself, had many reasons for a more optimistic view. However, the most critical reason appears to have been an appreciation of how the U.S. economy has changed over decades and become much less sensitive to interest rates. In the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. economy was driven by housing and manufacturing. The only choice to finance a home was the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, provided by a savings and loan institution, that deliberately borrowed short-term from savers and lent long-term, taking considerable interest rate and yield curve risk. Further, there was no such thing as financial futures or interest rate swaps to allow for the efficient hedging of interest rate risk. Fast forward to the modern economy of the 2020s. The U.S. is an economy driven by the service sector, and services are considerably less sensitive to interest rate swings than housing and automobiles. Home mortgages come in every size and flavor, from floating rates to fixed rates. Mortgages are originated by specialists and then packaged and sold to pensions, endowments and investors willing to take the risk. There are no savings and loan institutions. Financial futures, swaps and options are available for efficient hedging and management of interest rate risk. In short, the U.S. economy does not dance to interest rates like it once did. Make no mistake, though; interest rate shifts have a profound impact on asset values, from equities to bonds, to housing. It is just that the impact on the real economy is much more subdued than it once was, and a rise in rates does not automatically mean a recession is around the corner. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Bluford Putnam, Managing Director & Chief Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by CME_Group
ISM New Orders vs Consumer SentimentISM New Orders Vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment index ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilising a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month over month, this demonstrates consumers have the consistently had the resources and the desire to spend. If this continues over months a trend can form and we can capture this direction on a chart. To support the ISM predictive argument I include a chart that illustrates a correlation between the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the latter of which is considered one of thee leading indicators for predicting future consumer spending/demand. This will be posted in the comments. According to Investopedia "ISM data is considered to be a leading indicator of economic trends. Not only does the ISM Manufacturing Index report information on the prior two months, it outlines long-term trends that have been building over time based on prevailing economic conditions". According to the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Surveys "have proven to be an accurate indicator of the future course of the national economy." Based on the above correlation I postulate that we can use the ISM New Orders Index as an additional leading/predictive indicator to establish what direction consumer demand is trending. Something we can keep an eye on and something that will factor in this weeks MACRO MONDAY Edition which i will post immediately after this PUKA
ECONOMICS:USMNO
by PukaCharts
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of August 4, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Spooz index experienced a significant drop as a result of the Inner Index Rally 4590 reaching completion last and this week's trading session, respectively. This caused our Mean Sup 4534 and 4507 to be eliminated. It seems likely that the index will continue to decline, potentially reaching our next Mean Sup 4403 and even Mean Sup 4330. However, it's important to note that there could be a Reignited Rally Resumption at the solid and strategic Mean Sup 4403 level, as this week's trading has been heavily oversold.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
MACRO MONDAY 5 - Major Market Index XMINYSE Arca Major Market Index - TVC:XMI The XMI Index is a chart that gets overlooked by many but it is still monitored by OG legacy traders. I recently came across the XMI being utilized by Sentiment Trader in one of their reports, considering that Sentiment Trader provide some of the best metrics in the business, their coverage of the XMI peaked my interest. The XMI is a price weighted index consisting of 20 blue chip U.S Industrial Stocks, 17 of which are also in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within the index there is surprising blend of stocks that include transport, travel, food, pharma, energy and technology. A breakdown of its components can be found at this Trading View link (Will be added to comments below). The Chart The long term pattern on the chart is very obviously a rising wedge pattern which presents diagonal resistance above and below. We are currently 7% away from the top diagonal resistance line so this will be an important level in coming weeks and doesn’t leave a lot of room overhead. God forbid if we ever breach the base line of the large wedge. In the past a 200 week SMA re-test and flattening has predated recessionary/capitulation price action. If we come close to the 200 week SMA again we should be preparing ourselves for that potential outcome. The XMI made lower highs from Jan 1999 - Sept 2000 providing an advanced 9 month warning of the follow up recession/capitulation price action that initiated from Sept 2000 onwards on the S&P 500. The XMI made lower highs as the EIGHTCAP:SPX500 made higher highs over the 9 month period. The XMI did not provide a similar advance warning for the 2008 Great Recession however, it did make a lower high, which is something we else we can look out for as a weaker warning signal. This is not a concern at present as the XMI has just broke up into new highs. Its interesting to see how the XMI gave a significant 9 month advance warning of the 2000 Recession but was not as clear cut at providing an advance warning of the 2008 Great Recession. Conversely, the SPDR Homebuilders ETF ( AMEX:XHB ) which we covered in Macro Monday 3 provided an advance warning of the 2008 Great Recession, however was not as clear cut at providing an advance warning of the 2000 Recession. This is because the 2008 Great Recession was mainly a result of high risk mortgage lending which lead to a housing market collapse, whilst the 2000 recession was a tech led crash and general economic slowdown invoked by the Federal reserve who had been increasing rates to quell an overvalued bubbling tech stock market. We will need to pay separate attention to these individual index charts as we move forward for clues and warnings as we do not know what market or chart will provide us with that ultimate advance warning. In March 2020 it was the Dow Transportation Index DJ:DJT (Macro Monday 1), in 2007 it was the Homebuilders XHB (Macro Monday 3) and in 2000 it was the Major Market Index XMI (See Chart). MACRO MONDAY 1 - DJT MACRO MONDAY 3 - XHB It is worth noting that the current yield curve inversion on the 2/10 year Treasury Spread provided advance warning of recession/capitulation prior to all of the above events 2000, 2007 & 2020 however it provided us a wide 6 - 22 month window of time from the time the yield curve made its first definitive turn back up to the 0% level (See Macro Monday 2). We are 5 months into that 6 – 22 month window and thus closing in on dangerous territory, however the DJT, XHB and XMI charts remain very positive suggesting a longer time horizon is likely on the cards. I hope with the addition of DJT, XHB and XMI we are providing you with additional warning/timing indicators allowing us to hone in on a more specific timeframe, making us better informed and more nimble market participants. MACRO MONDAY 2 - 2/10 year Treasury Spread As we continue with Macro Mondays we will continue to cover these and similar leading charts and indicators. At present the yield curve inversion suggests recession is only a matter of time however the DJT, XHB and XMI charts do not have clear warning signals presenting, but when and if they do, we will be able to recognize these signals and position accordingly. Into the 6 – 22 month danger window we go. No guarantees, just probable outcomes. Stay nimble folks PUKA
TVC:XMI
by PukaCharts
Deciphering Divergent Signals The Complex Economic LandscapeThe global economy continues to face profound uncertainties in the wake of COVID-19's massive disruptions. For policymakers and business leaders, making sense of divergent signals on jobs, inflation, and growth remains imperative yet challenging. In the United States, inflation pressures appear to be moderately easing after surging to 40-year highs in 2022. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 3% in June from the prior peak of 9.1%. Plunging gasoline and used car prices provided some consumer relief, while housing and food costs remained worryingly elevated. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, dipped to 4.8% but persists well above the Fed’s 2% target. Supply chain improvements, waning pandemic demand spikes, and the strong dollar making imports cheaper all helped cool inflation. However, risks abound that high prices become entrenched with tight labor markets still buoying wages. Major central banks responded with substantial interest rate hikes to reduce demand, but the full economic drag likely remains unseen. Further supply shocks from geopolitics or weather could also reignite commodity inflation. While the direction seems promising, the Fed vows ongoing vigilance and further tightening until inflation durably falls to acceptable levels. The path back to price stability will be bumpy. Yet even amidst surging inflation, the US labor market showed resilience through 2022. Employers added over 4 million jobs, driving unemployment down to 3.5%, matching pre-pandemic lows. This simultaneous inflation and job growth confounds historical norms where Fed tightening swiftly slows hiring. Pandemic-era stimulus and savings initially cushioned households from rate hikes, sustaining consumer demand. Early retirements, long COVID disabilities, caregiving needs, and possibly a cultural rethinking of work also constricted labor supply. With fewer jobseekers available, businesses retained and attracted talent by lifting pay, leading to nominal wage growth even outpacing inflation for some months. However, the labor market's anomalous buoyancy shows growing fragility. Job openings plunged over 20% since March, tech and housing layoffs multiplied, and wage growth decelerated – all signals of softening demand as higher rates bite. Most economists expect outright job losses in coming months as the Fed induces a deliberate recession to conquer inflation. Outside the US, other economies show similar labor market resilience assisted by generous pandemic supports. But with emergency stimulus now depleted, Europe especially looks vulnerable. Energy and food inflation strain household budgets as rising rates threaten economies already flirting with recession. Surveys show consumer confidence nosediving across European markets. With less policy space, job losses may mount faster overseas if slowdowns worsen. Meanwhile, Mexico’s economy and currency proved surprisingly robust. Peso strength reflects Mexico’s expanding manufacturing exports, especially autos, amid US attempts to nearshore production and diversify from China reliance. Remittances from Mexican immigrants also reached new highs, supporting domestic demand. However, complex immigration issues continue challenging US-Mexico ties. The pandemic undoubtedly accelerated pre-existing workforce transformations. Millions older employees permanently retired. Younger cohorts increasingly spurn traditional career ladders, cobbling together gig work and passion projects. Remote technology facilitated this cultural shift toward customized careers and lifestyle priorities. Many posit these preferences will now permanently reshape labor markets. Employers clinging to old norms of in-office inflexibility may struggle to hire and retain talent, especially younger workers. Tighter immigration restrictions also constrain domestic labor supply. At the same time, automation and artificial intelligence will transform productivity and skills demands. In this context, labor shortages could linger regardless of economic cycles. If realized, productivity enhancements from technology could support growth with fewer workers. But displacement risks require better policies around skills retraining, portable benefits, and income supports. Individuals must continually gain new capabilities to stay relevant. The days of lifelong stable employer relationships appear gone. For policymakers, balancing inflation control and labor health presents acute challenges. Achieving a soft landing that curtails price spikes without triggering mass unemployment hardly looks guaranteed. The Fed’s rapid tightening applies tremendous pressure to an economy still experiencing profound demographic, technological, and cultural realignments. With less room for stimulus, other central banks face even more daunting dilemmas. Premature efforts to rein in inflation could induce deep recessions and lasting scars. But failure to act also risks runaway prices that erode living standards and stability. There are no easy solutions with both scenarios carrying grave consequences. For business leaders, adjusting to emerging realities in workforce priorities and automation capabilities remains imperative. Companies that embrace flexible work options, prioritize pay equity, and intelligently integrate technologies will gain a competitive edge in accessing skills and talent. But transitions will inevitably be turbulent. On the whole, the global economy's trajectory looks cloudy. While the inflation fever appears to be modestly breaking, risks of resurgence remain as long as labor markets show tightness. But just as rising prices moderate, the delayed impacts from massive rate hikes threaten to extinguish job growth and demand. For workers, maintaining adaptability and skills development is mandatory to navigate gathering storms. Any Coming downturn may well play out differently than past recessions due to demographic shifts, cultural evolution, and automation. But with debt levels still stretched thin across sectors, the turbulence could yet prove intense. The path forward promises to be volatile and uneven amidst the lingering pandemic aftershocks. Navigating uncertainty remains imperative but challenging.
TVC:US10YEducation
by BitcoinMacro
5