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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 21, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The Spooz, in choppy trading this week, managed to advance to near our Key Res 4180 by creating weak Mean Res 4156. A pullback to Mean Sup 4090 is possible before reigniting the rally to Mean Res 4156 and Key Res 4180 and rallying substantially to Outer Index Rally 4230 as specified in the Daily Chart Analysis For the Week since February 3. The Outer Index Rally 4230 completion will trigger a pivotal pullback to inverted Key Res 4180.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
2
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 21, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The rally of the coin price has reached HKEX:30 ,500, which completes the Intermediate Coin Rally with a strong Mean Res at the same price. A significant pullback is underway, with the price declining toward the Mean Sup of HKEX:26 ,900.There is expected to be a substantial increase in the price, leading to a retest of the Mean Res and Intermediate Coin Rally levels of HKEX:30 ,500. This will be followed by a further boost to reach the Next Outer Coin Rally point of 31,700 and, eventually, the Main Outer Coin Rally point of HKEX:34 ,000. Stay tuned for further price action.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
ES: Recession/Depression 2023ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 THE END IS NEAR.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PivotX
1
S&P 500: Roaring Twenties 2.0 Bullish Harmonic FractalIn the lead up to the 1920s, the US Federal Reserve significantly increased its balance sheet by almost nine times, starting from 700 Million Dollars in December 1916 to 6.6 Billion Dollars by January 1920. This move was presumably to fund the US's entry into the First World War, which led to an increased demand for US government debt globally and loose lending conditions domestically, and low rates thereby encouraging a round of inflation in the US. However, after the war ended, the Fed stopped increasing the balance sheet, and between 1920 and 1922, they began to reduce it from the already elevated $6.6 billion to $4.8 billion, almost a 30% cut in just two years. This action successfully controlled inflation but did not eliminate it completely, yet the dollar gained significant buying power, resulting in a somewhat disinflationary period. As a response to this, the Fed maintained the balance sheet within a tight range around $4.8 billion for a decade, neither raising nor lowering it much but the federal reserve did continue to significantly lower the interest rates; During this time, equities rallied. While the 1920s were a period of economic growth and prosperity, there were warning signs of overheating towards the end of the decade. Investors were becoming overly speculative, leading to a surge in stock and real estate prices, while lending standards declined and consumer spending continued to rise rapidly. To counteract these inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve implemented policies to tighten credit conditions; They doubled interest rates and also raised reserve requirements for banks, which reduced the amount of money available for lending. In essence this would kickstart The Great Depression which could have instead been a Simple Recession if only the fed had acted sooner as it wasn't their intention to crush the market but rather they just wanted to cool the market down a bit to contain inflation. Years deep into the Great depression, the Federal Reserve realized they had gone too far. So, to fix this, they would begin to raise the balance sheet again while also cutting rates drastically in an effort to relieve pressure from the economy and promote new opportunities for economic growth, which then led to a new expansionary cycle. With that all being said, it would appear that the Fed is doing now what it was doing back then. Over the last decade, they raised the balance sheet by 900% and lowered interest rates by over 95%. Only over the last year, they have begun to reduce the balance sheet by about 10% while raising rates by over 1500%. If we are to go off of the Harmonic Fractals on the chart, then we are likely nearing a point in time where the Fed will begin to loosen rate policy and bring the balance sheet back to all-time highs. This would align with the S&P reaching a 2.618 - 4.00 Retraces as the Fed attempts to keep policy as loose as possible in the hopes that inflation won't come back to bite them. But once we reach harmonic targets, we will likely see inflation return in a great way, which would then force the Fed to induce another Great Depression in the next several years rather they want to or not. Technical Argument: ABCD BAMM, after breaking a long accumulation range and entering a long term expansionary cycle, we are now in the later phases of said cycle while showing heavy amounts of MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence and harmonically have room to go up significantly higher before it ultimately reaches D and comes to an end.
TVC:SPXLong
by RizeSenpai
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 14, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The Spooz, in choppy trading this week, managed to obsolete our outstanding target area - Mean Res 4126. The re-establishment of an upward trend will aim to obsolete Mean Res 4145 and punch through to Key Res 4180 and vital Outer Index Rally 4230 as specified in the Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of February 3. On the downside, there might be a significant pullback to Mean Sup 4090 before propelling renewed rally. The Outer Index Rally completion will trigger a pivotal pullback to inverted Mean Res 4145, considered the first Mean Support level.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 14, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin price action exploded through our completed Intermediate Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:29 ,200, Key Res HKEX:29 ,900, and Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:30 ,000 earlier this week's session, as flagged since Daily Chart Analysis for March 17. Current price action suggests a solid rally to Outer Coin Rally and Key Res HKEX:31 ,700. On the downside, Mean Sup is HKEX:29 ,800, the primary target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
DOW JONES Technical view on what chart is trying to say.DJ:DJI A reliable thing on which almost all investors believe in to know the trends of the market weather it will be upside or in the down side in the short term. so here it is a basic outlook of what I think looking at the chart of our fav index Dow jones which tell us so many things at ones and sometimes says nothing. This is the time where we have to understand it better that market condition based on the economy level is very weak we cannot expect a big really from here to the upside even after it has tested its important trendline recently on the 15th of march after 5 days of collapse of the SVB (silicon valley bank) after which common expectations should be of a crash in the market which has not been seen yet or i guess it has been just postponed for a while by the US fed by promising all its customer that they will get there deposits back that too 100% of the amount they have with the bank. and 97% of account there had more deposit than the amount that is insured by the government at the time of collapse of any bank. so to the point to fulfil the promise of the government at the time of inflation and economic crises nearly already smart ass US government printed more dollars in order to give it back to the depositors and maintain there promise as well as trust of people on banking system. Above phase is just to make you understand the economic outlook at this period of time because based on economic factors only technical theory can be supported. now coming to the technical part of the index as we were discussing above on 15th of march as you can see on the chart important trend line has been tested once and then it has started moving upwards which is supported by the fed news of printing more notes and pumping it in the economy. after the support now price will tell the next resistance level of around 34500. we can consider a short term upward move due to the extra dollar printing up to 36000 and 36800. this is same situation as we saw in the times of pandemic when people got cash credits on which market reacted positive and gave us a big bull rally and new highs. we cannot expect new high because now the situation is same but not the economy, there is inflation now which was already at high and expected to go more in coming time of June and July and then soon we see a correction flush of all the extra money and a red color splashing all over the markets. This was my over look of Dow jones on bases of economic and technical view hope this can help you read the chart more easily. Thankyou,
DJ:DJILong
by IG_TRADER
1
Rethinking Fed Intervention: Wages, Inflation, and AIIn light of the precarious global economy and numerous contributing factors, such as deglobalization, the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, an aging population, and an overwhelming amount of debt, the Federal Reserve's role and efficacy in the current economic climate have come into question. Drawing on Jeff Snider's work, it is increasingly evident that the Federal Reserve has not completely controlled the financial system. Despite their efforts to manipulate interest rates, external factors and market forces continuously challenge the Fed's authority. The market's current outlook suggests that the Fed may be forced to cut rates soon, indicating that its strategy of hiking rates may not have been the best approach. The central premise that the Fed should intervene to suppress inflation by keeping wages low is fundamentally flawed. Higher wages can lead to increased productivity investments, reducing the need for labor and raising living standards over time. However, hiking interest rates can stifle investment, hindering economic growth and exacerbating inequality. In recent months, inflation has decreased independently, without the direct influence of the Fed's actions, suggesting that the economy may be self-correcting. However, this natural deflationary pressure could be disrupted by external factors, such as the tightening of lending standards brought on by the mini-banking crisis. The ongoing threat of AI-driven job losses and an impending recession further complicates the situation for American workers. Jeff Snider's research at Eurodollar University offers valuable insights into the complex relationship between the Fed and inflation. Snider argues that the Fed's actions may not be the primary cause of inflation, as it has limited control over the money supply. Instead, he posits that the global financial system, specifically the eurodollar market, plays a more significant role in influencing inflation rates. As we progress into the exponential age, the rapid advancement of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to significant disruptions. However, there are potentially positive aspects to these developments. AI could revolutionize industries, streamline processes, and create new opportunities. The widespread adoption of AI can lead to increased efficiency, improved decision-making, and the automation of repetitive tasks, ultimately driving economic growth. The productivity gains associated with AI could offset some of the negative impacts of the current economic climate, such as job losses and wage stagnation. In summary, the belief that the Fed should intervene to suppress wages to tackle inflation is fundamentally misguided. Such intervention can have numerous negative consequences, including hindering investment and stifling economic growth. In contrast, allowing wages to rise can lead to increased productivity investments and improved living standards. To effectively address inflation, it is essential to consider a more comprehensive range of factors beyond the Fed's actions and recognize the importance of encouraging sustainable economic growth through policies promoting higher wages and productivity investments. Policymakers and financial analysts must carefully consider the consequences of their actions and their impact on the broader economy and society. Thanks to Michael Green, aka @profplum99, for inspiring me to write this analysis :) twitter.com
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro
ISM PMI Long Term Chart - 04/08/23The ISM currently stands at 46.3%, signaling a contraction. Business activity is implying that rising interest rates and growing recession fears are starting to weigh on businesses. The reading pointed to a fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as companies continue to slow outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. Frequentist's will tell you that the market tends to bottom six months after the ISM drops below 50.00. In the chart, I've drawn a channel with fib standard deviations. This will be a good one to save and track
ECONOMICS:USBCOI
by RHTrading
How to be careful against manipulation while trading Forex?It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure. The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to short selling can be realized at a price higher than the last transaction price, the short selling transaction can also be made at the last transaction price level if the last transaction price of the capital market instrument subject to short selling is higher than the previous price. Thus, with the implementation of this rule, the possibility of the dollar falling is minimized. The dollar is raised up to 18.36 Turkish liras. At 18:15, after the daytime market closed, the manipulation began. On the evening of December 20, 2021, the Central Bank started selling dollars through public banks at very low exchange rates. The aim was to transfer capital to some of the supporters by selling the Central Bank's dollars for less than 10 Turkish liras, but the dollar only fell to 12.49 Turkish liras. Because an investor who was unaware of this operation bought $1.5 billion at an average rate of 12.50 Turkish liras. Since the Central Bank had exhausted its selling limit for that day, it couldn't sell any more dollars. Thus, the operation remained incomplete. With the panic that started in the market, BIST presented an announcement for approval at 09:25 on the morning of December 21, 2021. A trap was set for stock market investors to complete the operation. At 09:46 (16 minutes after the opening of the stock exchange), the approval of the announcement was published on KAP. In this announcement, the limit for selling dollars at a discount of up to 10% was increased to 80%. However, during the 16-minute period before investors learned of this decision, the Central Bank's dollar reserves, which had started selling at 18.22 Turkish liras on the new day, had already been sold down to the level of 3.65 Turkish liras. (Although this level of 3.65 Turkish liras may not be visible on the Tradingview chart, data is available on applications such as Bloomberg Terminal and Matriks.) The identity of those who had prior knowledge and purchased dollars at almost no cost is unknown. The Central Bank has been robbed, and those who were aware of the operation have made large profits, while others have lost their money and assets. Instead of protecting investors against manipulation, it looks like SPK and BIST have facilitated the setting of traps for them. The most basic thing we can do to protect ourselves against such manipulations is to be vigilant when buying and selling currencies of countries with low credibility.
by YavuzAkbay
1
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 7, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin price action blitzed under its completed Intermediate Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:29 ,200 and strategic pullback to Mean Sup HKEX:29 ,900 this week. Current price action suggests a vital decline to Mean Sup HKEX:26 ,900. The upside target scenario is the Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:30 ,000, and the extension to the Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:31 ,700 and Key Res of the same price is not viable now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Will The U.S Dollar Collapse ?OANDA:XAUUSD Currencies fall for various reasons and they include: 1. Political or economic disorder 2. Hyperinflation 3. War 4. A labor market decline 5. Recession, among various other reasons. 1.The United States has weathered several political and economic disorders since its formation in 1776. The country was on the brink of collapse during the Great Depression in 1929 but successfully weathered the storm in 1939. Not only did it withstand the Great Depression, but it also fought World War II with valor the same year. The will to overcome all odds is in the blood of Americans come hell or high water. Therefore, the US has more chances to overcome political or economic disorder due to this very spirit. 2 Hyperinflation Inflation in the US is high but has not reached hyperinflation yet. The Federal Reserve managed to bring down rates from 8% to 6.5% and are rowing the boat, despite muddy waters. Hyperinflation taking over the country with daily essentials becoming 50 times more expensive might never be a reality. 3. War The US is technically not at war but funds wars overseas, be it Ukraine, Syria, and Yemen, among other countries. A rogue nation attacking the US since 9/11 is nil, and the country is not at war today. The US is more equipped to handle and thwart terrorist attacks today than it was ever before. 4. Labor Market Decline The job markets remain robust despite several leading tech firms firing thousands of employees since 2020. Businesses are thriving, and jobs for small and big-level employees remain open for hire. Though the job markets remain on shaky grounds, it managed to sustain and grow, even in muddy conditions. 5. Recession While talks of a recession are growing louder, a recession has technically not hit the markets yet. Both the stock and cryptocurrency markets are doing favorably well in 2023 and generating decent returns for investors. However, a recession cannot be ruled out, as there’s pressure on the financial markets. Considering all the above points, the US stands in a favorable position with the only recession being its weak point. Moreover, since a recession is yet to arrive (or might not arrive), the weak point can be removed for now. In conclusion, the other sore spots can be worked upon and brought under control in the coming years. So Will The US Dollar Collapse? BRICS is yet to finalize a new currency in the upcoming summit in South Africa. The problem with BRICS nations is that decisions are not made swiftly and quickly due to various factors. Asian countries working with each other is not as easy as said. The factors involve India’s broken relations with China and vice-versa. India and China have always been on the wrong ends, and the bitter political disputes could only make things worse. Technically, the US dollar is backed as the default global reserve currency with billions worth of trades being executed each day. The US dollar has a special status globally and is considered one of the safest currencies. The United States is still the biggest economy in the world with an annual GDP of around $23 trillion. Even if the US falters, it always has and will find a way to remain at the top and be an undisputed global leader. The Great Depression is one big example of how nothing is impossible for Americans to succeed in troubled times.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by INVESTRONE
Can the Ichimoku predict a future recession?This is a 2 week chart of BTC using the Ichimoku Cloud and past pattern with hindsight of economic conditions (Covid 19). As many economists and market specialists have been saying we are in for a massive downturn. With the FED kicking the can down the road and inflating the economy more with Bank Bailouts, will we see a deflationary regime to the global earnings as corporate companies pay higher interest rates and consumers wait for prices to drop?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by GSL20