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ISM PMI Long Term Chart - 04/08/23The ISM currently stands at 46.3%, signaling a contraction. Business activity is implying that rising interest rates and growing recession fears are starting to weigh on businesses. The reading pointed to a fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as companies continue to slow outputs to better match demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period. Frequentist's will tell you that the market tends to bottom six months after the ISM drops below 50.00. In the chart, I've drawn a channel with fib standard deviations. This will be a good one to save and track
ECONOMICS:USBCOI
by RHTrading
How to be careful against manipulation while trading Forex?It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure. The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to short selling can be realized at a price higher than the last transaction price, the short selling transaction can also be made at the last transaction price level if the last transaction price of the capital market instrument subject to short selling is higher than the previous price. Thus, with the implementation of this rule, the possibility of the dollar falling is minimized. The dollar is raised up to 18.36 Turkish liras. At 18:15, after the daytime market closed, the manipulation began. On the evening of December 20, 2021, the Central Bank started selling dollars through public banks at very low exchange rates. The aim was to transfer capital to some of the supporters by selling the Central Bank's dollars for less than 10 Turkish liras, but the dollar only fell to 12.49 Turkish liras. Because an investor who was unaware of this operation bought $1.5 billion at an average rate of 12.50 Turkish liras. Since the Central Bank had exhausted its selling limit for that day, it couldn't sell any more dollars. Thus, the operation remained incomplete. With the panic that started in the market, BIST presented an announcement for approval at 09:25 on the morning of December 21, 2021. A trap was set for stock market investors to complete the operation. At 09:46 (16 minutes after the opening of the stock exchange), the approval of the announcement was published on KAP. In this announcement, the limit for selling dollars at a discount of up to 10% was increased to 80%. However, during the 16-minute period before investors learned of this decision, the Central Bank's dollar reserves, which had started selling at 18.22 Turkish liras on the new day, had already been sold down to the level of 3.65 Turkish liras. (Although this level of 3.65 Turkish liras may not be visible on the Tradingview chart, data is available on applications such as Bloomberg Terminal and Matriks.) The identity of those who had prior knowledge and purchased dollars at almost no cost is unknown. The Central Bank has been robbed, and those who were aware of the operation have made large profits, while others have lost their money and assets. Instead of protecting investors against manipulation, it looks like SPK and BIST have facilitated the setting of traps for them. The most basic thing we can do to protect ourselves against such manipulations is to be vigilant when buying and selling currencies of countries with low credibility.
by YavuzAkbay
1
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 7, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin price action blitzed under its completed Intermediate Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:29 ,200 and strategic pullback to Mean Sup HKEX:29 ,900 this week. Current price action suggests a vital decline to Mean Sup HKEX:26 ,900. The upside target scenario is the Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:30 ,000, and the extension to the Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:31 ,700 and Key Res of the same price is not viable now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Will The U.S Dollar Collapse ?OANDA:XAUUSD Currencies fall for various reasons and they include: 1. Political or economic disorder 2. Hyperinflation 3. War 4. A labor market decline 5. Recession, among various other reasons. 1.The United States has weathered several political and economic disorders since its formation in 1776. The country was on the brink of collapse during the Great Depression in 1929 but successfully weathered the storm in 1939. Not only did it withstand the Great Depression, but it also fought World War II with valor the same year. The will to overcome all odds is in the blood of Americans come hell or high water. Therefore, the US has more chances to overcome political or economic disorder due to this very spirit. 2 Hyperinflation Inflation in the US is high but has not reached hyperinflation yet. The Federal Reserve managed to bring down rates from 8% to 6.5% and are rowing the boat, despite muddy waters. Hyperinflation taking over the country with daily essentials becoming 50 times more expensive might never be a reality. 3. War The US is technically not at war but funds wars overseas, be it Ukraine, Syria, and Yemen, among other countries. A rogue nation attacking the US since 9/11 is nil, and the country is not at war today. The US is more equipped to handle and thwart terrorist attacks today than it was ever before. 4. Labor Market Decline The job markets remain robust despite several leading tech firms firing thousands of employees since 2020. Businesses are thriving, and jobs for small and big-level employees remain open for hire. Though the job markets remain on shaky grounds, it managed to sustain and grow, even in muddy conditions. 5. Recession While talks of a recession are growing louder, a recession has technically not hit the markets yet. Both the stock and cryptocurrency markets are doing favorably well in 2023 and generating decent returns for investors. However, a recession cannot be ruled out, as there’s pressure on the financial markets. Considering all the above points, the US stands in a favorable position with the only recession being its weak point. Moreover, since a recession is yet to arrive (or might not arrive), the weak point can be removed for now. In conclusion, the other sore spots can be worked upon and brought under control in the coming years. So Will The US Dollar Collapse? BRICS is yet to finalize a new currency in the upcoming summit in South Africa. The problem with BRICS nations is that decisions are not made swiftly and quickly due to various factors. Asian countries working with each other is not as easy as said. The factors involve India’s broken relations with China and vice-versa. India and China have always been on the wrong ends, and the bitter political disputes could only make things worse. Technically, the US dollar is backed as the default global reserve currency with billions worth of trades being executed each day. The US dollar has a special status globally and is considered one of the safest currencies. The United States is still the biggest economy in the world with an annual GDP of around $23 trillion. Even if the US falters, it always has and will find a way to remain at the top and be an undisputed global leader. The Great Depression is one big example of how nothing is impossible for Americans to succeed in troubled times.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by INVESTRONE
Can the Ichimoku predict a future recession?This is a 2 week chart of BTC using the Ichimoku Cloud and past pattern with hindsight of economic conditions (Covid 19). As many economists and market specialists have been saying we are in for a massive downturn. With the FED kicking the can down the road and inflating the economy more with Bank Bailouts, will we see a deflationary regime to the global earnings as corporate companies pay higher interest rates and consumers wait for prices to drop?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by GSL20
WIRE (Long) - Technical perfection and powerful fundamentalsFundamentals: The fundamentals of WIRE are just beautiful to look at: P/E = 5, P/S = 1.1 and P/B = 1.84 The earnings of the company have doubled since the start of 2021 (average annual growth for the past 5 years has been at 56% ); the earnings are expected to come down because of the recession fears but these expectations are already accounted for in the price ROE, ROA and ROCE are all comfortably above 30% The firm has zero debt , ample liquidity and pays a nice dividend Would be hard to find better fundamentals Technicals: If those fundamentals were not enough, the technical setup is an absolute dream We can see a robust rounding base which was forming for over a year and culminated in a strong breakout on high volume The RSI is strong and rising and the firm is outperforming the market by a large margin Trade: Unfortunately, I missed the breakout. I did not want to chase the stock so I waited for a pullback which just happened and created a great opportunity for an entry On a daily, the pattern is even nicer and right now would definitely be a great time to enter from a timing perspective. However, this is a great stock even from a longer-term perspective, so excellent entry is not as important Stop-loss could be either the breakout point or the most recent low on the weekly; depends on your risk preferences Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help If you like my content, Please leave a like, comment or a donation , it motivates me to keep producing ideas, thank you :)
WLong
by jurajholik
interest rates and housing Australia.ECONOMICS:AUMR A visualization of how house prices react against interest rates rises other than the obvious divergence where rates get cheap and people will spend more. I haven't made any predictions, there are a lot of moving parts in the system at the moment. CPI being a big one on everyone lips, affordability, availability, sustainability, buzz words right ha A lot of people got money really cheap and after the 5 year fixed terms what is the flow on effect, have people stopped excessive spending and in turn the is a down turn in GDP jobs but CPI still climbs. Will tenants pay for all the rate hikes if the houses are not worth it? will people try and interest only? left with the prospect of selling will prices go too low while we are still in need of more houses to curb demand? ordinary interest increases appeared to be up to 60% over time and we are looking at a event where we are already 3x that. I used info from another chart to have more complete data for the interest, I should have done the house prices too. ( If someone knows how to import stuff like this speak up, that was a ball ache) Surprised tradingviews data was not complete. datawrapper.dwcdn.net Have your say. feed back is welcome. Might do updates if i"m feeling inspired.
ECONOMICS:AUMR
by S12spring
Trade Idea: VICIVici properties is showing weakening in its trend. This has been directly tied to the weakness in XLRE - real estate We believe VICI properties has much more downside. This specific Real estate play also has much property exposure to the casino type names. With many of the Casino charts like MGM, LVS looking "topheavy" this may be a correlated play that already has headwinds from the weakening in real estate. If the economy weakens to a degree the consumer discretionary stocks should also be hit.
NYSE:VICI
by Trading-Capital
$TNX & short term yields breaking support levelsWhile the #fed reserve has made it clear they're not stopping rate increases yet, #bonds yields put a top in days ago. $TNX actually did it some time ago! We noticed certain sectors, like insurance, began lowering premiums done time ago. Did they know something was start didn't? Small community banks are getting crushed and if rates crater it may alleviate the balance sheets of those remaining. Anyway, the fed tends to overdo everything they do. Many are calling recession or something much harsher. Time will tell but banks going busy is not a good sign.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Stock Market March 23' ⚔️ Long Vs. Short Well , just as any other chart, we must keep things simple. Price has made a new Low after Ranging for 120 days/4 Months. There is Liquidity Built up in the market. If we maintain bearish momentum then we will see 31,198 very soon. Price is testing 32,082 at the moment. We may return to the low from OCT 22' due to clean traffic on the weekly timeframe and plenty of fundamental reasons to be concerned about. 32,082 must hold for bulls or we are falling off a cliff here.
UShort
by ShrewdCatfx
Gold targeting $2250 or higher - then a PauseAre you following my research? It amazes me that I can post a chart/video predicting something to happen 3 to 6+ months in advance, then sit back and watch it play out. Gold has entered a new phase - much different than everyone thinks. This is not 2009~2011 all over again. This is 2003~05 repeating. The next phase of the US market trend, and Gold, will blow everyone away. After reaching levels above $2200, Gold will stall for about 4+ months to levels just below $2000. Then, as we move past Q1:2024, Gold will begin to advance as uncertainty settles across the globe. near the end of 2024, I expect Gold to make a move higher - possibly targeting $2800 or higher. Into 2025, I suspect Gold will attempt to rally above $3000, but will quickly stall into a sideways trend as a new US President dictates policy/trends. 2026 is something we'll have to wait for to see how things play out. My research suggests Gold will continue to trend higher. But, there is a very strong possibility Gold will move above $4k before the end of 2026. So, we'll just have to see what happened with the elections in 2024. Follow my research. Learn how I can help you stay ahead of these crazy market trends.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny