Get started

Economy

Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 5, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: Throughout the week, the coin remained steady between our Mean Res $30,500, Intermediate Coin Rally of the same, and Mean Sup $27,000. It established a new soft Mean Res at $29,500 and a strong Mean Sup at $28,000, which most likely will be retested. This price action indicates that there will be robust progress in reaching the Next Outer Coin Rally point of $31,700 and, ultimately the Main Outer Coin Rally at $34,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Free Market vs The FedAs of late, the vast majority of us probably have been hearing about "too big to fail" or " a free market vs. a central market" What does all of this mean?" Well, let's go over some of the basic stuff. As in some of my prior posts, it is important to understand that the "Fed" does NOT control mortgage rates or loan rates from your local banks. Let me repeat that the Fed does NOT control mortgage rates or consumer loan rates So now you might ask yourself why the Fed raises rates matter? Well, that's a great question. Because, in short, it should not matter if we were in a free market. Well, sadly, we are not in a free market. We are in a centralized market with different flavors available to us. "Ah, but Guy, you just contradicted yourself by saying the fed does not control mortgage rates, and now you're saying we're in a controlled market rabel rabel rabel " Let me explain... The Fed cannot have any direct contact with "average" consumers; it's currently illegal FOR NOW . Now, everyone, the biggest fear with CBDC is a rightfully placed fear. And we will discuss this in a separate post. So, view the Federal Reserve's manipulation of the economy as a game of pool (billiards) or snooker; what have you. In billiards (for the purpose of the post, billiards = pool), the player cannot directly hit the numbered balls with the stick (cue). Instead, one must use a medium to engage the cue ball. So, to pocket your balls, you must have a small degree of understanding of physics to transfer energy from you to the stick to the cue ball to the desired ball into the desired pocket. The Fed (cue) is the same way. They set the FFR (cue ball), which then goes to the regional and big banks (numbered balls), which then sink into the economy (pocket) So, how does this work? To explain that, you need to understand how a bank makes money. (The Following is highly watered down for simplicity's sake) A bank does not make money because you have an account with them. On the other hand, a bank makes money BECAUSE you have an account with them. So when you use your local JPM, WFC, or C bank :) as a piggy bank, they pay you an interest rate of something like a percent of a percent; however, it's still considered a liability to the bank because that's cash flow going to you from them even if it's a penny a year. So, how can they make money then? The fractional Reserve system. Mike Maloney debates this, and I'm super interested in hearing his thoughts on this... another post for another time. What is the Fractional Reserve System? Basically, for every dollar you put into your account, the bank can lend out 10$ It's basically in place because you're not running to the bank to close your account. So, they can do this. When you put money into your account, it's already out the door into someone else's pocket in the form of a loan by the time you place your wallet in your pocket/ purse what have you. And that's probably too slow for the bank. (velocity of money) Well, that bank's balance sheet of physical liquid cash probably only is enough to pay the onsite staff hourly wage the bank needs more. so they have one of two options 1. go to the Fed and borrow money at the FFR 2. go to the repo market and borrow from another bank by offering t-bills and bonds as collateral. (shadow banking) Typically they go with number one because it's cheaper. The vast majority of times they use the repo market is for cash now! or if their risk management department is trying to make some quick cash off the bond market. (shadow banking is outside the purview of this post, and I'm still learning about it. I will post about it later) ( the fed lining up their billiard shot) So, the Fed has decided the US economy needs to grow more... (the Fed hitting the cue ball) So, lets say the Fed makes the FFR 0% (hypothetically LOL) ( the cue ball hits the numbered ball) So your local JPM will go to the Fed and take out a loan at 0%, so they need to lend this money out and make money, and make their, JPM's rate, interest rate on that money 3% LOL! (The numbered ball sinks into the desired pocket) you the consumer want to go out and buy something you can afford on your 9-5 salary. So you go to the bank and qualify for a loan at their 3% rate to be amortized over 10-30 years, and the economy grows. If that sounds familiar its coincidence LOL However, in a free market how it would work is the loan system would be heavily dependent on the local economy and local wage potential. How? If a bank is set up in an area with low-income earning potential, then the market will tell the bank exactly how much they can charge on money. Example: let's say the Risk Manager at your local WFC decides he is conservative and makes the DTI Ratio for loans 30%. That means the minimum someone must make for a 200,000$ loan is around 60,000$. If the local median income is 45,000$, no one can afford a 200,000$ loan. The maximum loan amount they can make is around 150,000$. So, for the bank to grow, it either needs to up the DTI requirements, it needs to be content with its current earnings and hope the area grows or wages increase, or it can close down and move. Now where the free market comes into play is when WFC is having their DTI at 30%, JPM is at 40%, and C is at 60%, (free market remember) in the same area as the example The following happens: WFC sees their default rate is less than 10% JPM sees thier default rate at 40% C sees thier default rate in the upper 80%. So, what this means is that the market is telling WFC they are leaving money on the table but are playing it safe. Because less people qualify for the loan JPM has almost found the sweet spot. 40% of their loans are in default, but more than half are paid on time. could use some minor tweaking but solid none the less. (With my risk tolerance, 30-35% default is a good number depending on loan size.) C is in trouble because they have lent out too much, and people can't afford that much money in the area. So in a free market, WFC will fail in the area because they're not seeing enough volume, and C will fail because they're seeing too much volume. which leaves JPM to buy up both of the failing banks and grow bigger LOL!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ARegularGuy
DKNG (Long) - Double bottom on a weekly; breakout from a baseFundamentals Draftkings is not the best buy from a fundamental value as it is currently unprofitable, and according to analyst, it is about to stay that way for the next 2-3 years However, it is showing a robust growth with the earnings expected to grow almost 70% next year Unprofitable companies are also likely to start profiting once interest rates start to go lower from the impending recession It is important to stay cautious with high-beta stocks like DKNG as they can also be hit by the recession. Therefore there is a real need for prudent risk management Technicals Technicals are looking really solid On a weekly, the stock formed a double bottom at the all-time low The stock price created a solid base from which it is just breaking out The RSI is creating a base near 60 level and looking like breaking higher; MACD has just entered positive Trade The stock just started breaking out from a lovely-built base However, the stock market seems to be having a pullback which might last for another week or two, creating headwinds for DKNG Moreover, there is a very important FED meeting next week along with a CPI print Therefore, I would wait for the price action in the market to play out and wait for the data to come out and once the air is clear and in line with a thesis for growth stock, I would jump on the DKNG train Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I am happy to help If you like my content, Please leave a like, comment or a donation , it motivates me to keep producing ideas, thank you :)
NASDAQ:DKNGLong
by jurajholik
EURUSD: "...It's not over yet!!"The title of this analysis reproduces with a clear synthesis the key concept about the FED's monetary policy. The inflation data released in recent weeks should not mislead us, the core data still remains high. My view at the moment is that Fed will still be hawkish through late 2023, so I expect more rate hikes at upcoming meetings. The banking sector is holding up well after Yellen reassured the markets several times about a potential banking crisis, and I also think the sector will not lack liquidity, at least for 2023. The US currency may have found a short-term bottom, but we need 1-2 sessions to confirm it. FX:EURUSD pair is still trading below its previous top, but should remain structurally well supported in medium-term. With this in mind, in next update we will try to follow the pair also from a technical point of view on intraday chart (setup). Trade with care! Like if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
by TheAnonymousBanker
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 21, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The Spooz, in choppy trading this week, managed to advance to near our Key Res 4180 by creating weak Mean Res 4156. A pullback to Mean Sup 4090 is possible before reigniting the rally to Mean Res 4156 and Key Res 4180 and rallying substantially to Outer Index Rally 4230 as specified in the Daily Chart Analysis For the Week since February 3. The Outer Index Rally 4230 completion will trigger a pivotal pullback to inverted Key Res 4180.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
2
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 21, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The rally of the coin price has reached HKEX:30 ,500, which completes the Intermediate Coin Rally with a strong Mean Res at the same price. A significant pullback is underway, with the price declining toward the Mean Sup of HKEX:26 ,900.There is expected to be a substantial increase in the price, leading to a retest of the Mean Res and Intermediate Coin Rally levels of HKEX:30 ,500. This will be followed by a further boost to reach the Next Outer Coin Rally point of 31,700 and, eventually, the Main Outer Coin Rally point of HKEX:34 ,000. Stay tuned for further price action.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
ES: Recession/Depression 2023ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 ES: Recession/Depression 2023 THE END IS NEAR.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by PivotX
1
S&P 500: Roaring Twenties 2.0 Bullish Harmonic FractalIn the lead up to the 1920s, the US Federal Reserve significantly increased its balance sheet by almost nine times, starting from 700 Million Dollars in December 1916 to 6.6 Billion Dollars by January 1920. This move was presumably to fund the US's entry into the First World War, which led to an increased demand for US government debt globally and loose lending conditions domestically, and low rates thereby encouraging a round of inflation in the US. However, after the war ended, the Fed stopped increasing the balance sheet, and between 1920 and 1922, they began to reduce it from the already elevated $6.6 billion to $4.8 billion, almost a 30% cut in just two years. This action successfully controlled inflation but did not eliminate it completely, yet the dollar gained significant buying power, resulting in a somewhat disinflationary period. As a response to this, the Fed maintained the balance sheet within a tight range around $4.8 billion for a decade, neither raising nor lowering it much but the federal reserve did continue to significantly lower the interest rates; During this time, equities rallied. While the 1920s were a period of economic growth and prosperity, there were warning signs of overheating towards the end of the decade. Investors were becoming overly speculative, leading to a surge in stock and real estate prices, while lending standards declined and consumer spending continued to rise rapidly. To counteract these inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve implemented policies to tighten credit conditions; They doubled interest rates and also raised reserve requirements for banks, which reduced the amount of money available for lending. In essence this would kickstart The Great Depression which could have instead been a Simple Recession if only the fed had acted sooner as it wasn't their intention to crush the market but rather they just wanted to cool the market down a bit to contain inflation. Years deep into the Great depression, the Federal Reserve realized they had gone too far. So, to fix this, they would begin to raise the balance sheet again while also cutting rates drastically in an effort to relieve pressure from the economy and promote new opportunities for economic growth, which then led to a new expansionary cycle. With that all being said, it would appear that the Fed is doing now what it was doing back then. Over the last decade, they raised the balance sheet by 900% and lowered interest rates by over 95%. Only over the last year, they have begun to reduce the balance sheet by about 10% while raising rates by over 1500%. If we are to go off of the Harmonic Fractals on the chart, then we are likely nearing a point in time where the Fed will begin to loosen rate policy and bring the balance sheet back to all-time highs. This would align with the S&P reaching a 2.618 - 4.00 Retraces as the Fed attempts to keep policy as loose as possible in the hopes that inflation won't come back to bite them. But once we reach harmonic targets, we will likely see inflation return in a great way, which would then force the Fed to induce another Great Depression in the next several years rather they want to or not. Technical Argument: ABCD BAMM, after breaking a long accumulation range and entering a long term expansionary cycle, we are now in the later phases of said cycle while showing heavy amounts of MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence and harmonically have room to go up significantly higher before it ultimately reaches D and comes to an end.
TVC:SPXLong
by RizeSenpai
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 14, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The Spooz, in choppy trading this week, managed to obsolete our outstanding target area - Mean Res 4126. The re-establishment of an upward trend will aim to obsolete Mean Res 4145 and punch through to Key Res 4180 and vital Outer Index Rally 4230 as specified in the Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of February 3. On the downside, there might be a significant pullback to Mean Sup 4090 before propelling renewed rally. The Outer Index Rally completion will trigger a pivotal pullback to inverted Mean Res 4145, considered the first Mean Support level.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 14, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin price action exploded through our completed Intermediate Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:29 ,200, Key Res HKEX:29 ,900, and Outer Coin Rally of HKEX:30 ,000 earlier this week's session, as flagged since Daily Chart Analysis for March 17. Current price action suggests a solid rally to Outer Coin Rally and Key Res HKEX:31 ,700. On the downside, Mean Sup is HKEX:29 ,800, the primary target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
DOW JONES Technical view on what chart is trying to say.DJ:DJI A reliable thing on which almost all investors believe in to know the trends of the market weather it will be upside or in the down side in the short term. so here it is a basic outlook of what I think looking at the chart of our fav index Dow jones which tell us so many things at ones and sometimes says nothing. This is the time where we have to understand it better that market condition based on the economy level is very weak we cannot expect a big really from here to the upside even after it has tested its important trendline recently on the 15th of march after 5 days of collapse of the SVB (silicon valley bank) after which common expectations should be of a crash in the market which has not been seen yet or i guess it has been just postponed for a while by the US fed by promising all its customer that they will get there deposits back that too 100% of the amount they have with the bank. and 97% of account there had more deposit than the amount that is insured by the government at the time of collapse of any bank. so to the point to fulfil the promise of the government at the time of inflation and economic crises nearly already smart ass US government printed more dollars in order to give it back to the depositors and maintain there promise as well as trust of people on banking system. Above phase is just to make you understand the economic outlook at this period of time because based on economic factors only technical theory can be supported. now coming to the technical part of the index as we were discussing above on 15th of march as you can see on the chart important trend line has been tested once and then it has started moving upwards which is supported by the fed news of printing more notes and pumping it in the economy. after the support now price will tell the next resistance level of around 34500. we can consider a short term upward move due to the extra dollar printing up to 36000 and 36800. this is same situation as we saw in the times of pandemic when people got cash credits on which market reacted positive and gave us a big bull rally and new highs. we cannot expect new high because now the situation is same but not the economy, there is inflation now which was already at high and expected to go more in coming time of June and July and then soon we see a correction flush of all the extra money and a red color splashing all over the markets. This was my over look of Dow jones on bases of economic and technical view hope this can help you read the chart more easily. Thankyou,
DJ:DJILong
by IG_TRADER
1
Rethinking Fed Intervention: Wages, Inflation, and AIIn light of the precarious global economy and numerous contributing factors, such as deglobalization, the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, an aging population, and an overwhelming amount of debt, the Federal Reserve's role and efficacy in the current economic climate have come into question. Drawing on Jeff Snider's work, it is increasingly evident that the Federal Reserve has not completely controlled the financial system. Despite their efforts to manipulate interest rates, external factors and market forces continuously challenge the Fed's authority. The market's current outlook suggests that the Fed may be forced to cut rates soon, indicating that its strategy of hiking rates may not have been the best approach. The central premise that the Fed should intervene to suppress inflation by keeping wages low is fundamentally flawed. Higher wages can lead to increased productivity investments, reducing the need for labor and raising living standards over time. However, hiking interest rates can stifle investment, hindering economic growth and exacerbating inequality. In recent months, inflation has decreased independently, without the direct influence of the Fed's actions, suggesting that the economy may be self-correcting. However, this natural deflationary pressure could be disrupted by external factors, such as the tightening of lending standards brought on by the mini-banking crisis. The ongoing threat of AI-driven job losses and an impending recession further complicates the situation for American workers. Jeff Snider's research at Eurodollar University offers valuable insights into the complex relationship between the Fed and inflation. Snider argues that the Fed's actions may not be the primary cause of inflation, as it has limited control over the money supply. Instead, he posits that the global financial system, specifically the eurodollar market, plays a more significant role in influencing inflation rates. As we progress into the exponential age, the rapid advancement of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) will lead to significant disruptions. However, there are potentially positive aspects to these developments. AI could revolutionize industries, streamline processes, and create new opportunities. The widespread adoption of AI can lead to increased efficiency, improved decision-making, and the automation of repetitive tasks, ultimately driving economic growth. The productivity gains associated with AI could offset some of the negative impacts of the current economic climate, such as job losses and wage stagnation. In summary, the belief that the Fed should intervene to suppress wages to tackle inflation is fundamentally misguided. Such intervention can have numerous negative consequences, including hindering investment and stifling economic growth. In contrast, allowing wages to rise can lead to increased productivity investments and improved living standards. To effectively address inflation, it is essential to consider a more comprehensive range of factors beyond the Fed's actions and recognize the importance of encouraging sustainable economic growth through policies promoting higher wages and productivity investments. Policymakers and financial analysts must carefully consider the consequences of their actions and their impact on the broader economy and society. Thanks to Michael Green, aka @profplum99, for inspiring me to write this analysis :) twitter.com
TVC:US10Y
by BitcoinMacro