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The current context is serious | Forex-Indices-Stocks-Crypto |It seems that inflation is considered the devil for the markets, so the focus will be on the next Fed meeting scheduled for March 22nd. Last week we saw a strong increase in NFP and this could be the first sign of a hawkish FED, but this week we will see the second and final sign for the markets: CPI release. These two drivers will complete the big economic figure ahead of the interest rate announcement. In recent weeks Governor J.P has been under a lot of pressure from the financial community (including Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary and former Fed Governor) due to the large risk of contraction and the impact of such aggressive monetary policy. But perhaps the news about failure of some banks could prove to be a strong ally of Powell. Why am I saying that? If the Fed's target is to drag the US economy into a mild recession to try and get inflation back to around 2 percent, concern that these two failures could be contagious within the banking sector could help Powell achieve the first target: "bring down inflation...". Even the geopolitical context should not be underestimated: The war in Ukraine and China-United States tensions over Taiwan. We will see the impact on the main markets (dollar, SP500, gold...) in the second part of this analysis.
by TheAnonymousBanker
5
U.S. Case Shiller Home Price Index in contraction?As you can see from the Monthly Chart, U.S. Case Shiller Home Price Index could experience an interesting price contraction in short-medium term, could this also be a clear sign of a potential economic contraction, recession? If this happens, we shouldn't be surprised, the Fed is doing everything to fight inflation in the United States... Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
ECONOMICS:USCSHPI
by TheAnonymousBanker
3
A Look at the Turkish EconomyAs we all know, the increase in foreign currency increases the general product prices extraordinarily, as it increases the input costs. The rise of the foreign exchange is a phenomenon that a country does not want. Every country aims to keep the exchange rate stable. But for some reason, Turkey came out of these countries. As can be seen from this chart, from 2006 to 2020, Turkey continued to print money with a certain pattern. This is an acceptable factor for each country under certain conditions. The money supply, which increased with a trend of 23 degrees, started to rise more sharply after 2020, and especially after March 2021, the trend reached 53 degrees. This trend change is a clear indication of how fast the printing of money is. Therefore, as the money supply increases, there is a natural depreciation of the currency (Orange line shows the rising Dollar against the Turkish Lira). In the same period, interest rates were reduced, as can be seen from the black line. By lowering interest rates, what a country normally aims at is to create consumption demand by reducing borrowing costs. Therefore, the demand for consumption has increased, and with it, demand inflation has arisen. Meanwhile, printing money decreased the value of the Turkish Lira (the exchange rate rose), which increased the input costs. The increase in input costs was reflected in the sales prices of the products. Therefore, inflation was fueled by both demand and foreign currency. It will be impossible to know why the Turkish government did this, why it deliberately ignited inflation, which no economist can explain. If you have an idea, you can write it in the comments. Thanks.
ECONOMICS:TRM2
by YavuzAkbay
1
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 10, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin continued to downfall passed our Mean Supports of $21,500 and $20,476 this week to complete the Outer Coin Dip of $19,700. Once this completed knockdown is verified and validated by Trade Selecter System, we will see the rebound - the initial target of Mean Res of $20,900 with a possible extension to Mean Res of $22,500. The rally to Key Res of $25,000 and the Outer Coin Rally of $26,000 is postponed until further notice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Inflation (CPI) - A Battle Already LostInflation ( CPI ) - A Battle Already Lost I've recently shared my outlook on CPI and where I think its headed in the months ahead but after further review, it seems that I've previously overlooked certain signals which should have altered my perspective in a way that it did not. Based on discovery of those signals, I have now updated my anticipatory CPI chart to highlight certain levels of interest. As we can see on the wavemap, the Consumer Price Index (a measure of inflation) has broken above its 40+ year bearish trend line. The breakout was very strong and should be considered as very significant. The format of the wave during this breakout has developed as what seems to likely be a zig-zag formation. Noticeably, the upside zig-zag wave has retraced 90% of the 40 year long bearish drawdown. Therefore, leaving little probability of it being a truly corrective wave. Aside from the macro bear trend-line, I have also highlighted the newly respected bullish trend-line. Finding resistance near 6.77, Fibonacci measurements suggest that the pending action will fall to retest the former price containing trend line and maybe even drop below it. Specifically, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that 0.99-1.01 should be the downside target range. Over the past 20 years, this level has also supplied nearly unbeatable support. If support is once again discovered near 1.00, the currently active wave could then be sent to retest the red bullish trend, at a level near 9-10. Ultimately, completion of the blue diagonal will signify that the CPI (and inflation) area headed for upside levels that the American economy has never witnessed. Personally, I believe that inflation is a byproduct of capitalism and there is no true containment possible. The next decade will prove to show if this is on point or simply farce.
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by DigitalSurfTrading
Short Term (de)correlation between S&P500 & Dollar IndexIf we try to follow the trend of the Dollar Index and SP500 in the short term, we can see how as the dollar rises there is consequently a decline in the U.S. Index, but this event is not absolute, in fact there are many variables at play. At the moment, however, many of these variables appear to be in favor of this inversely proportional swing, at least in the short term. If this analysis is correct, the next FED rate announcement should show further misalignment between the two sides, as the market should not be surprised by a 50bp rate hike (see chart below), so "wait & see"... 3 WEEK AGO TODAY DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSIS (Click & Play on Chart below) Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TheAnonymousBanker
4
Bitcoin Macro outlook 2023 . . .. . . and why is wise being Bearish on Bitcoin & crypto at the moment. Hi everyone , I make this super simple, so it even looks stupid. 1 Month Time Frame We see that after peeking at 69k price reversed and our modus operandi is sell to buy to sell . Meaning, we have large sells followed by buying just to proceed next large sell once price is elevated. This MO taking between 2-3 months in each shift. We already had our upside move in 2023 = price are elevated... ... global macro economy outlook is not so great either with high interest rates & inflation & situation between Ukrain- Russia not bringing any stability into west world either. Monthly candle close at around 15hours. If closing price is lower then 23315.95$ odds are highly shifting to favor further *selling TLTR: ´ We are up a lot from bottom, if we close under 23315,95$ on 1M, we have high probability that it will go to seek other end of liquidity upcoming months´ Joe
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptocapitaltrading
7
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | FebuaryTable of Content: 1. Eurozone Inflation Data 2. US Economics Growth 3. NVDA 4. Commodities 5. Technical Analysis 1. Eurozone Inflation Data The Eurozone's inflation for the month of January has exceeded the previously estimated figures, as reported by MarketWatch on February 23. It has been emphasized by policymakers that the economy is undergoing a disinflation process, and a soft landing has been achieved. However, the recent surge in inflation within the European Union implies a substantial escalation in interest rates. 2. US Economic Growth The US economy experienced a less robust economic expansion than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, as evidenced by a downward revision in consumer spending. This adjustment has resulted in weaker economic growth (Bloomberg). The total amount of outstanding credit card debt in the United States has reached $986 billion, with an average interest rate of 20%. This marks the highest level of credit card debt since the 1980s and translates into an interest payment of $200 billion per year. These figures do not include other forms of debt such as mortgages, student loans, and car loans, which are likely to exacerbate the situation. At the same time, the US government is paying over $200 billion in interest payments The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index has risen from 5.3% to 5.4%, however, this data alone is insufficient to support the notion of disinflation. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downwards from 2.9% to 2.7% (a decrease of 0.2%) from the preceding quarter. According to Bloomberg, the US economy experienced a weaker expansion than originally projected. Revised fourth-quarter inflation figures have been adjusted upward. Additionally, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon stated that "The Federal Reserve has lost a little bit of control of inflation". He has been warning about the economy for a while and I believe that he knows something is cracking as we speak. 3. NVDA The stock price of $NVDA experienced double-digit growth. The stock price has risen by 100% since the beginning of the year. Revenues and profits have both decreased by 21% and 52% respectively on a year-over-year basis, and every segment of the business has exhibited a decline over the same period. The CEO placed significant emphasis on the importance of Artificial Intelligence, yet he sold stocks worth over $100 million prior to the market's significant downturn and may presently be engaged in additional sales. 4. Commodities The statement suggests an anticipated appreciation in the value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the downward movements of gold, silver, platinum, copper, and various grains such as corn, rice, and soybean. Conversely, energy commodities are experiencing an upward trend, with natural gas exhibiting a significant increase. 5. Technical Analysis The 21-day weighted ratio of equity-only put-to-call options is suggestive of a preponderance of puts in the market and indicates a significant degree of buying pressure. This metric has demonstrated a high degree of efficacy in identifying market highs and lows by suggesting a move in the opposite direction to the put/call ratio. Notably, during the present bear market, the ratio has achieved a 100% success rate. Furthermore, the current volume of call options is the highest on record, and retail investors are contributing $1.1 billion daily to the market. -Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving downwards and volume remain below average (bearish) As previously stated, " I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels". I have now filled all my short position on BTC in a confident manner. Below is my BTC outlook Conclusion: The recent market rally, spurred by technical indicators, high-quantity puts, and government emphasis on disinflation, has led to a surge in retail investment. As a result, prices for some assets have skyrocketed, and the quantity of long positions in the market has reached alarming levels. This suggests an overabundance of buying and a lack of liquidity that could cause the market to dip and potentially result in retail closures, as inflation has proven to be more persistent than anticipated by governments. I remain committed to my long-term investment plan, I am acknowledging the growing fissures in some economies that could lead to a catastrophic downturn. It is essential to remain vigilant and prepare for potential market turbulence in the future. As previously mentioned, my portfolio consists of short-term bonds, USD, SPX shorts, BTC Shorts, small quantity gold, and just acquired Natural gas contracts. For personal records but feel free to discuss or argue.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The index Mean Res 4145 was the culprit target with the recent Intermediary Up Trend as shown on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 17; all three targets were hit - Mean Sup 4060, Mean Sup 4015, and the Inner Index Dip 3980. The newly created Mean Res 4028 is our intermediate upside target - Dead-cat bounce. Keep in mind that the current bearish market sentiment is intact. There is a significant possibility that the Mean Sup 3890 and retest could be undertaken of Key Sup 3785 and completed of the Inner Index Dip 3785 as well.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar continued a downward spiral this week, as shown on EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 17. The price action hit our Mean Sup 1.066 for several days, indicating its bearish mode. The leading downside target designation is Mean Sup 1.052 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.046. Once this puppy hits our targets, we will see a revival to the upside aiming for the main target of the Mean Res 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: After hitting our Key Res $24,500, as shown on the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis Update For the Week of Feb 17, the coin is retreating aggressively, striking our target of the Mean Sup $23,500 as marked and showing an earmark move to Mean Sup $21,500. Once this puppy settles down, we will see a resurgence to the upside - the initial target of Key Res $25,000 with a rally all the way to the Outer Coin Rally of $26,000 and the Extended Outer Coin Rally of $27,000 targets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
DXY - Will US Dollar history of 1981 repeat? 🔲DXY Will the USD find support at this important monthly line🔲and history of 1981 repeat with a bullish run⁉️🚨 Personally I don't expect that due to the parabolic $-M1 Supply But what are your thoughts on that dear #Bitcoin and Crypto Nation? Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
TVC:DXY
by Crypto4Everybody